The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[John2015]

7 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Last I heard was 800, but 350 makes more sense.  

 

It doesn't really matter, these movies won't work until 2022.  

These movies won't work theatrically in 2022.   Most people will only watch adult dramas on streaming services. 

Oscar should change its rule to allow streaming-only movies to be eligible.  Otherwise Oscar will be out of touch.

 

On the other hand, big blckbusters like "Red Notice" will still do well theatrically. Universal must regret for giving it up to Netflix. (It would at least gross much higher than Soho.)

 

 

Edited November 4, 2021 by John2015

[Cap]

3 hours ago, Plain Old Tele said:

Bring back roadshows. Not even joking. 

This is why we are Besties. 

[CJohn]

7 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Wes Anderson has a big, young fanbase which is loyal. But it underperformed big time last week with just over 2m. 

 

I know your schtick is trolling and being facetious but the truth is that platform releases rely on word of mouth from older audiences which allows for expansion. The older audience demo is not rushing out to theaters. Therefore, how will this movies expand? They'll struggle with low PTA in like 4 locations and theaters will refuse to play them since they'd waste a screen from something like the big Marvel movie. By going wide, studios will quit the inevitable, collect whatever money they can and go digital in a month or so. 

 

Mass, for example, opened in 4 theaters and made 13.4k. A month later and it's at 120k and 77 theaters. There's just no momentum here

I left that schtick behind a while ago.

 

Again, what the hell is Mass in today's market? A flop, plain and simple, it has no appeal or buzz and it would have flopped even in a normal market. French Dispatch actually overperformed as nobody expected it to go over 1M on OW. They need to try this with actual appealling movies with buzz, not Mass or Tammy Faye.

[charlie Jatinder]

Did a quick and dirty check of Harkins. Looking solid there. Pace overperformed Shang Chi by ~2300 seats sold in last 3 days vs less than 2K for Shang Chi. Hopefully walkins are good today.

[Liiviig 1998]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Eternals

MTC1 Prevews(T-1) - 123502/481536 2050075.68 +16230
MTC1 Friday(T-2) - 123972/992570 2023116.64 5392 shows +21644
MTC1 Saturday(T-3) - 99179/1049936 1520088.25 5714 shows +16962
MTC2 Prev(T-1) - 76089/395890 1023654.46 2703 shows +13549
MTC2 Friday(T-2) - 79507/748048 1000247.77 4927 shows +16112
 

PS for previews is again tad below SC and OD is slightly above. I am also going to temper expectations. Its probably going to finish around 180K at MTC1 which wont be enough for 10m. Let us see how tomorrow goes. I am expecting slightly tepid walkups relative to SC due to mediocre reviews. Rest of the weekend I am expecting true friday to be around 23m and OW in low to mid 70s. Hope tomorrow's walkups push up these numbers. 

 

Comps

 

 

 

 

23m true Friday would get it to 80m+

If sat sun were to play like

TDW -83m

DS.   -85m

Thor Rag - 87m

 

But drops have been strange at times this pandemic . At least 80m would happen with such a Friday . High 70s at worst.

But let's see WOM.

 

I've had this at 85m - 225-230m final and 205-210m incase  WOM is mixed.

Edited November 4, 2021 by Liiviig 1998

[EmpireCity]

5 hours ago, John2015 said:

These movies won't work theatrically in 2022.   Most people will only watch adult dramas on streaming services. 

Oscar should change its rule to allow streaming-only movies to be eligible.  Otherwise Oscar will be out of touch.

 

On the other hand, big blckbusters like "Red Notice" will still do well theatrically. Universal must regret for giving it up to Netflix. (It would at least gross much higher than Soho.)

 

 

 

I disagree, even the platform adult drama will be back in 2022.  Going to take some time to recover from a 2 year global pandemic.  

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	67	10,040	1,035	129	10.31%
		Phoenix	7	56	8,820	1,285	143	14.57%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,098	1,097	128	26.77%
	Eternals Total		21	160	22,958	3,417	400	14.88%
	Spencer	Jacksonville	3	7	413	7	3	1.69%
		Phoenix	3	7	799	25	4	3.13%
		Raleigh	2	3	164	18	3	10.98%
	Spencer Total		8	17	1,376	50	10	3.63%
T-14	Ghostbusters (Wed)	Jacksonville	2	2	558	0	0	0.00%
	Ghostbusters (Wed) Total		2	2	558	0	0	0.00%
T-15	Ghostbusters	Jacksonville	7	52	8,475	56	14	0.66%
		Phoenix	5	27	4,640	132	31	2.84%
		Raleigh	7	28	4,025	103	13	2.56%
	Ghostbusters Total		19	107	17,140	291	58	1.70%

 

Eternals comps

BW - .731x (9.65m)

SC - 1.395x (12.28m)

TSS - 3.566x (14.6m)

Venom 2 - 1.292x (14.99m)

 

The other comps are slowly coming into focus.  I expected more from yesterday to be honest - still hoping for around 10m.

 

Ghostbusters comps

TSS - 1.228x (5.03m)

NTTD - .822x (4.27m)

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-0	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	72	10,311	1,285	250	12.46%
		Phoenix	7	58	8,905	1,528	243	17.16%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,098	1,333	236	32.53%
	Eternals Total		21	167	23,314	4,146	729	17.78%
	Spencer	Jacksonville	3	7	413	9	2	2.18%
		Phoenix	3	7	799	39	14	4.88%
		Raleigh	2	3	164	24	6	14.63%
	Spencer Total		8	17	1,376	72	22	5.23%
T-13	Ghostbusters (Wed)	Jacksonville	2	2	558	0	0	0.00%
	Ghostbusters (Wed) Total		2	2	558	0	0	0.00%
T-14	Ghostbusters	Jacksonville	7	58	9,824	79	23	0.80%
		Phoenix	6	27	4,640	142	10	3.06%
		Raleigh	7	28	4,025	120	17	2.98%
	Ghostbusters Total		20	113	18,489	341	50	1.84%

 

Eternals comps

BW - .716x (9.45m)

SC - 1.376x (12.11m)

TSS - 3.272x (13.42m)

Venom 2 - 1.108x (12.85m)

 

Not a fan of the BW comp dropping three days in a row.  Leaning closer to 9.5m than 10m at this point with one update to go.  The good thing is that ATP for sales in my areas are exactly a dollar higher than they were for BW.

 

Ghostbusters comps

TSS - 1.38x (5.66m)

NTTD - .886x (4.61m)

Dune - .812x (4.14m)

[filmlover]

5 hours ago, CJohn said:

I left that schtick behind a while ago.

 

Again, what the hell is Mass in today's market? A flop, plain and simple, it has no appeal or buzz and it would have flopped even in a normal market. French Dispatch actually overperformed as nobody expected it to go over 1M on OW. They need to try this with actual appealling movies with buzz, not Mass or Tammy Faye.

 

It's gonna take awhile for the specialty market to be up and running again since everything this year is looking to be a lost cause in theaters, though it might not be for another year or two with how little studios are giving the green light for theaters these days. WB, for instance, is already on record in the Hollywood Reporter the other week saying that they don't believe dramas or comedies can survive in the current environment and are going to be mostly making them for HBO Max in the foreseeable future.

[keysersoze123]

8 hours ago, Menor said:

Low 70s from 23m Fri? I don't see that happening. Sat PS are too strong and historically the Sat bump should be strong in Nov as well. 

May be friday will be lower. Its not exact science. My number is ballpark. I dont see this going above mid 70s. Final week PS have improved a lot but still nothing great relative to SC. Let us see how things go today. Walkups today will tell the tale. 

 

Eternals Morning Update

MTC1 Previews - 127537/482654 2110888.49 2762 shows

MTC2 Previews -  79081/397032 1062723.06 2710 shows

 

Show count for Eternals are lower than Shang Chi at both MTC. That is really weird. I wonder if that will have a tiny impact on where it ends. Its all about walkups now. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Give me good news when I wake up. @keysersoze123 & @Menor

[Eric the IF]

So I'm compiling some stuff up to report on Sing 2 later tonight (I know, I know), but I found something really weird with Clifford that I want to vent about.

 

So I assumed it would just be a regular Wednesday release, but there are "Early Access" shows on Tuesday. You would think it would serve as previews, or just like one showing at 7. But instead, it's just...a whole day of showing. These "Early Access" shows start at like 12.

 

What kind of lunacy is this? These aren't previews are "Early Access" or any of that kind of crap. This is deadass a whole day's worth of showtimes, starting at like noon and shit. I don't think there's any discounts either, outside of chains that do $5 Tuesday or whatever. What jackass at Paramount put in all this pomp and circumstance for just a regular day of showtimes? Just grow some balls and debut the film on a Tuesday and not make me waste my time tallying up two days' worth of tickets (you know these "Early Access" sales will get rolled into the Wednesday OD). What a bunch of donkeys!

 

Okay, my first world problem venting is over. You can all now debate about Eternals.

[Plain Old Tele]

20 minutes ago, Eric loves Ajak said:

So I'm compiling some stuff up to report on Sing 2 later tonight (I know, I know), but I found something really weird with Clifford that I want to vent about.

 

So I assumed it would just be a regular Wednesday release, but there are "Early Access" shows on Tuesday. You would think it would serve as previews, or just like one showing at 7. But instead, it's just...a whole day of showing. These "Early Access" shows start at like 12.

 

What kind of lunacy is this? These aren't previews are "Early Access" or any of that kind of crap. This is deadass a whole day's worth of showtimes, starting at like noon and shit. I don't think there's any discounts either, outside of chains that do $5 Tuesday or whatever. What jackass at Paramount put in all this pomp and circumstance for just a regular day of showtimes? Just grow some balls and debut the film on a Tuesday and not make me waste my time tallying up two days' worth of tickets (you know these "Early Access" sales will get rolled into the Wednesday OD). What a bunch of donkeys!

 

Okay, my first world problem venting is over. You can all now debate about Eternals.

Every morning at Paramount, someone wakes up and thinks “How can I fuck Eric up today?”

[EmpireCity]

21 minutes ago, Eric loves Ajak said:

So I'm compiling some stuff up to report on Sing 2 later tonight (I know, I know), but I found something really weird with Clifford that I want to vent about.

 

So I assumed it would just be a regular Wednesday release, but there are "Early Access" shows on Tuesday. You would think it would serve as previews, or just like one showing at 7. But instead, it's just...a whole day of showing. These "Early Access" shows start at like 12.

 

What kind of lunacy is this? These aren't previews are "Early Access" or any of that kind of crap. This is deadass a whole day's worth of showtimes, starting at like noon and shit. I don't think there's any discounts either, outside of chains that do $5 Tuesday or whatever. What jackass at Paramount put in all this pomp and circumstance for just a regular day of showtimes? Just grow some balls and debut the film on a Tuesday and not make me waste my time tallying up two days' worth of tickets (you know these "Early Access" sales will get rolled into the Wednesday OD). What a bunch of donkeys!

 

Okay, my first world problem venting is over. You can all now debate about Eternals.

 

Paramount encouraged theaters to schedule shows on Tuesday all day knowing they were going to be discounted anyways.  They are fine with that happening and is their reasoning.  

 

I don't agree with it, but was what they came up with.  

[EmpireCity]

Resident Evil 4 or whatever goes on sale Nov. 15th.  

[thedast]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

 

WB, for instance, is already on record in the Hollywood Reporter the other week saying that they don't believe dramas or comedies can survive in the current environment and are going to be mostly making them for HBO Max in the foreseeable future.

They're right. People are increasingly seeing cinemas as event movie fare. Instead, studios should consider new marketing strategies for mid-budget/prestige fare on streaming. It would also help if these streamers were more universally available like Netflix, because more eyes, more revenue to make up the theatrical loss. Dis, HBO Max (and Apple TV especially which had no existing distribution deals or licenses, but has an arrangement with A24 and a shit ton of potential ready audience thanks to its hardware) have no excuse to still be so limited still.  I stand by the idea that those two streamers could position themselves as the go-to prestige streamers and let Disney/Netflix/Amazon take the more mass appeal stuff. There's some ego in here as well, as many directors think their stuff 'needs' to be seen on an IMAX screen and the Academy being how it is. A lot of these smaller movies are getting lost to the void of time because no one's seeing them in theatres and they're lost in the noise when they finally go digital. 

[filmlover]

15 minutes ago, thedast said:

They're right. People are increasingly seeing cinemas as event movie fare. Instead, studios should consider new marketing strategies for mid-budget/prestige fare on streaming. It would also help if these streamers were more universally available like Netflix, because more eyes, more revenue to make up the theatrical loss. Dis, HBO Max (and Apple TV especially which had no existing distribution deals or licenses, but has an arrangement with A24 and a shit ton of potential ready audience thanks to its hardware) have no excuse to still be so limited still.  I stand by the idea that those two streamers could position themselves as the go-to prestige streamers and let Disney/Netflix/Amazon take the more mass appeal stuff. There's some ego in here as well, as many directors think their stuff 'needs' to be seen on an IMAX screen and the Academy being how it is. A lot of these smaller movies are getting lost to the void of time because no one's seeing them in theatres and they're lost in the noise when they finally go digital. 

The thing is, a handful of blockbusters in recent years that were sold as "must see on the big screen" events would be in the same predicament other prestige fare is now when the demographics that helped get those movies to where they ended up isn't coming back in large numbers period. The marketplace can't just survive on Marvel alone. For example, titles like Dunkirk and 1917 (all war movies naturally tend to draw older audiences for the most part even when there's a director of Nolan's caliber attached) would be making noticeably less than they did during their pre-COVID releases had they been released now. Studios are largely going to avoid giving projects like those the green light for a while, at least until there's a sign that the audience for them is ready to return.

[Blaze Heatnix]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

Resident Evil 4 or whatever goes on sale Nov. 15th.  

 

Welcome to Raccoon City?

 

 

I'm very excited for this movie. I won't lie. It looks miles better than the ones with Jovovich. 

 

 

[Tinalera]

Eternals 

Toronto Ontario

Final Count for Thurs Nov 4

 

11 theatres

54 shows 

Total Sold 3635 

Total Remaining 9171

Total seats (sold plus remaining) 12806

Percentage 28.39

[Tinalera]

Eternals 

Toronto Ontario

FRIDAY Oct 5 (taken Oct 4)

11 Theatres

132 shows

Total Sold 5164

Total Remaining 30370

Total seats (sold plus remaining) 35534

Percentage 14.53

 

(a couple of numbers were wonky here as far as seat counts being way off from previous, so apologies if Total Seats is a bit off in calcs)

[Tinalera]

and because Im on a roll...

 

Ghostbusters Afterlife

Toronto Ontario 

Taken Nov 4 for Wed Nov 17

6 Theatres

6 shows

Total sold 103

Total remaining 1743

Total seats (sold plus remaining) 1846

Percentage 5.58

 

Starting with Ghostbusters I have added Vaughn and will be adding scarborough (when they start adding shows) as they are 2 that keep showing up in the same radius so hey why not. So going forward with be 13 "Greater Toronto Area" (whatever that means anymore) theatres

 

Edited November 4, 2021 by Tinalera