The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

Okay but seriously, is 6.5*11 outlandish? Not really. I would not say so. If the marketing clicks with the GA it should really outperform most of the sort of releases we have to use as comps.

Let's see. A nostalgia-heavy movie could be pretty presale-heavy. How welcoming would this be to Ghostbuster-indifferent audiences? 

Edited November 8, 2021 by Menor

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

Let's see. A nostalgia-heavy movie could be pretty presale-heavy. How welcoming would this be to Ghostbuster-indifferent audiences? 

Yeah, I mean, the conditional clause in my final sentence is pretty key. I would not be shocked with 4.5*10 or whatever either.

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, Menor said:

Let's see. A nostalgia-heavy movie could be pretty presale-heavy. How welcoming would this be to Ghostbuster-indifferent audiences? 

 

I think I'm a bit more skeptical about G:A than Eric (Sacto's numbers influencing me a bit here), but look at Free Guy and to a degree Let There Be Carnage.  Fun Is In right now.  If G:A is a fun time, WOM could spread pretty quickly. 

 

And it's not like the original Ghostbusters is some niche property.  I think via sheer cultural osmosis it stands right up there in the pantheon of Modern Classics.  Do agree that the fight* over GB 2016 casts a pretty long shadow, but if WOM spreads that could be set aside rather quickly even without the original stars

* Yes, I said the "fight over GB 2016 casts a pretty long shadow" as opposed to "GB 2016 casts a pretty long shadow" and I meant it, as I think all of the fussing and feuding over that film is far bigger of a "problem" than whatever one thinks of GB 2016 itself.

 

That being said, let's firm up 5m in previews first before we get too far down these tracks.

Edited November 8, 2021 by Porthos

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, Eric loves Ajak said:

And people today were really saying this was gonna bomb and do like 30M or whatever.

Calm yourself man lol. FWIW looking around it's doing well near where I am but with the catch (there's always a catch) that most of the sales are for PLF/IMAX auditoriums. The "see it on the biggest screen possible or don't show up at all" mindset is real y'all.

[Plain Old Tele]

21 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I think I'm a bit more skeptical about G:A than Eric (Sacto's numbers influencing me a bit here), but look at Free Guy and to a degree Let There Be Carnage.  Fun Is In right now.  If G:A is a fun time, WOM could spread pretty quickly. 

 

And it's not like the original Ghostbusters is some niche property.  I think via sheer cultural osmosis it stands right up there in the pantheon of Modern Classics.  Do agree that the fight* over GB 2016 casts a pretty long shadow, but if WOM spreads that could be set aside rather quickly even without the original stars

* Yes, I said the "fight over GB 2016 casts a pretty long shadow" as opposed to "GB 2016 casts a pretty long shadow" and I meant it, as I think all of the fussing and feuding over that film is far bigger of a "problem" than whatever one thinks of GB 2016 itself.

 

That being said, let's firm up 5m in previews first before we get too far down these tracks.

 

GB strikes me as a smaller scale version of what happened with the Terminator and Alien franchises: GB84 is beloved by many (as is T1/T2 and Alien/Aliens), but that’s inextricably linked to the originals and what was brought by the original creative team. While it’s certainly got a significant presence in fandom, no one’s really been able to crack the code to generate an extremely popular NEW version. Is it impossible? Of course not. But as with Terminator and Aliens, the odds seem like they’re against it.

 

(Now that I think about it, this applies to the Predator and RoboCop franchises too.)

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

 

GB strikes me as a smaller scale version of what happened with the Terminator and Alien franchises: GB84 is beloved by many (as is T1/T2 and Alien/Aliens), but that’s inextricably linked to the originals and what was brought by the original creative team. While it’s certainly got a significant presence in fandom, no one’s really been able to crack the code to generate an extremely popular NEW version. Is it impossible? Of course not. But as with Terminator and Aliens, the odds seem like they’re against it.

 

(Now that I think about it, this applies to the Predator and RoboCop franchises too.)

 

Well, the bar for current success I'm using here is Free Guy, so it's not like I'm saying that it's gonna be super popular.  "Popular enough" I suppose is what I was more going for, as you're quite right about "cracking the code".  Something the originals found out to their dismay with the original sequel to GB.

[filmlover]

18 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

 

GB strikes me as a smaller scale version of what happened with the Terminator and Alien franchises: GB84 is beloved by many (as is T1/T2 and Alien/Aliens), but that’s inextricably linked to the originals and what was brought by the original creative team. While it’s certainly got a significant presence in fandom, no one’s really been able to crack the code to generate an extremely popular NEW version. Is it impossible? Of course not. But as with Terminator and Aliens, the odds seem like they’re against it.

 

(Now that I think about it, this applies to the Predator and RoboCop franchises too.)

 

Honestly, looking back, a lot of the top hits of the 80s were definitely products of their time that wouldn't have anywhere close to the same luck in today's box office. Rain Man, the biggest movie of 1988? Good luck even cracking the top 30, or coming to theaters at all, now (nevermind the fact Rain Man itself is mostly considered a dated relic today).

[Plain Old Tele]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

 

Honestly, looking back, a lot of the top hits of the 80s were definitely products of their time that wouldn't have anywhere close to the same luck in today's box office. Rain Man, the biggest movie of 1988? Good luck even cracking the top 30, or coming to theaters at all, now (nevermind the fact Rain Man itself is mostly considered a dated relic today).

Granted (and that’s a bummer too), but at least these properties in question have sci-fi/action/fantasy hooks that still relate to modern tentpoles. 

[Porthos]

On 11/6/2021 at 11:37 PM, Porthos said:

 

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	108	16294	16695	401	2.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

37

 

T-12 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
TSS	114.25		13	351		0/81	13601/13952	2.52%		4.68m
SC	34.90		85	1149		0/101	15853/17002	6.76%		3.07m
V2	37.76		92	1062		0/155	24799/25861	4.11%		4.38m
NTTD	49.38		32	812		0/135	20447/21259	3.82%		3.06m

PRE-SALE NOTE: The Suicide Squad's and Let There Be Carnage's tickets have been on sale for five more days than Ghostbusters: Afterlife's tickets have been on sale, while No Time to Die's tickets have been on sale for three more days.

 

T-12 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	37.68		38	1021		0/79	11394/12415	8.22%		2.80m
GA (adj)	---		35	387		0/94	14148/14535	2.66%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: GA (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: F9's tickets have been on sale for six more days than Ghostbusters: Afterlife's tickets have been on sale.

 

Regal:       98/5966 [1.64% sold] [+10 tickets]

Matinee:   29/1984 [1.46% | 7.23% of all tickets sold]

 

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	108	16261	16692*	431	2.58%

* NOTE:  A theater adjusted some its seat maps, resulting in three fewer seats available region wide.

 

Total Seats Sold Today

30

 

T-11 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
TSS	118.08		14	365		0/81	13587/13952	2.62%		4.84m
SC	35.30		72	1221		0/101	15781/17002	7.18%		3.11m
V2	36.87		107	1169		0/156	24909/26078	4.48%		4.28m
NTTD	49.20		64	876		0/134	20340/21216	4.13%		3.05m

PRE-SALE NOTE: The Suicide Squad's and Let There Be Carnage's tickets have been on sale for five more days than Ghostbusters: Afterlife's tickets have been on sale, while No Time to Die's tickets have been on sale for three more days.

 

T-11 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	38.24		59	1080		0/79	11335/12415	8.70%		2.84m
GA (adj)	---		26	413		0/94	14119/14532	2.84%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: GA (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: F9's tickets have been on sale for six more days than Ghostbusters: Afterlife's tickets have been on sale.

 

Regal:     106/5966 [1.78% sold] [+8 tickets]

Matinee:   29/1984 [1.46% | 7.23% of all tickets sold]

[Eric Duncan]

8 hours ago, filmlover said:

Calm yourself man lol. FWIW looking around it's doing well near where I am but with the catch (there's always a catch) that most of the sales are for PLF/IMAX auditoriums. The "see it on the biggest screen possible or don't show up at all" mindset is real y'all.

Well that's true with every movie coming out this year. Venom did 90M and the PLFs still represented like 64% of its gross. There's definitely some concerning stuff over people exclusively going towards PLFs, but it really doesn't matter for openings.

 

And honestly I'm not even expecting anything that huge because Inception and Porthos' data is a lot less potent. Right now I'm thinking about an opening on par, maybe slightly higher, than the Feig movie. And honestly, that's really good. Not just for the pandemic standards (top 10 opening of the year, Spider-Man probs the only movie that will even sniff a 3-Day that high), but the film is likely cheaper than the Feig movie, so it'll be fine on that end.

 

I know there's issues with selling the movie OS, but that's not what we're talking about here. Honestly I just think people's pessimism on the movie is because they want it to tank rather than feeling the data truly points negative. And trust me, I understand why from a "fuck the manbabies" perspective and all the other toxic implications surrounding the movie (for the record, we're leaving it at that, because I really don't want to deal with the infighting, so don't respond back with any of that today)

[filmlover]

Can't believe they made a Clifford the Big Red Dog movie and yet it's nowhere to be found on any IMAX/PLF screens, not even for a morning show while Eternals gets the screen for rest of the day. The disrespect!

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-10	Ghostbusters (Wed)	Jacksonville	2	2	558	4	2	0.72%
	Ghostbusters (Wed) Total		2	2	558	4	2	0.72%
T-11	Ghostbusters	Jacksonville	7	58	9,824	115	9	1.17%
		Phoenix	6	27	4,640	179	10	3.86%
		Raleigh	8	29	4,104	142	2	3.46%
	Ghostbusters Total		21	114	18,568	436	21	2.35%
T-2	Clifford (Tues)	Jacksonville	4	23	2,734	0	0	0.00%
		Phoenix	5	19	2,492	36	36	1.44%
		Raleigh	6	16	1,796	17	17	0.95%
	Clifford (Tues) Total		15	58	7,022	53	53	0.75%
T-4	Belfast	Jacksonville	3	5	412	9	9	2.18%
		Phoenix	2	2	182	5	5	2.75%
		Raleigh	1	1	73	5	5	6.85%
	Belfast Total		6	8	667	19	19	2.85%

 

I'm not sure what to make of Clifford.  It's two tickets ahead of Addams Family previews at T-2 (550k) but these are also discounted Tuesday tickets and a full day.  We should have a good idea of how its weekend will go by Friday either way.  Belfast has actually sold tickets in all six of the theaters in these locations; I feel like this one will have a pretty limited target audience, so I'll take that as a good sign.

 

Ghostbusters comps

 

TSS - 1.48x (6.08m)

NTTD - .958x (4.98m)

Dune - .75x (3.82m)

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1	Clifford (Tues)	Jacksonville	4	23	2,734	0	0	0.00%
		Phoenix	5	19	2,492	39	3	1.57%
		Raleigh	6	16	1,796	20	3	1.11%
	Clifford (Tues) Total		15	58	7,022	59	6	0.84%
T-10	Ghostbusters	Jacksonville	7	58	9,824	123	8	1.25%
		Phoenix	6	27	4,640	197	18	4.25%
		Raleigh	8	29	4,104	153	11	3.73%
	Ghostbusters Total		21	114	18,568	473	37	2.55%
T-3	Belfast	Jacksonville	3	5	412	8	-1	1.94%
		Phoenix	2	2	182	7	2	3.85%
		Raleigh	1	1	73	8	3	10.96%
	Belfast Total		6	8	667	23	4	3.45%
T-9	Ghostbusters (Wed)	Jacksonville	2	2	558	4	0	0.72%
	Ghostbusters (Wed) Total		2	2	558	4	0	0.72%

 

Ghostbusters comps

TSS - 1.566x (6.42m)

NTTD - 1x (5.2m)

Dune - .73x (3.73m)

[el sid]

Clifford, counted today at 10am EST for Wednesday, November 10:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 26 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 14 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 4 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 8 (1 showtime)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 2 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 1 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 20 (7 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 75.

Comps: Dolittle (21.8M OW) had on Wednesday for Friday (= also 2 days left) 240 sold tickets in 7 theaters (and 143 on Monday for Friday)

and Boss Baby 2 (16.0M OW) had on Wednesday for Friday 140 sold tickets in 6 theaters (and 58 on Monday for Friday).
Friday is for sure a more popular day and I guess a 1:1 comparison doesn't make much sense. Still, 75 sold tickets so far isn't overwhelming I guess. OTOH if the WOM is good, the weekend sales could look better.
 

Belfast has so far only showtimes in 2 of my theaters, in Miami and LA, and 5 sold tickets for Friday. E.g. The Card Counter had on the same day 23 sold tickets but had showtimes in 3 theaters and most sold tickets came from the AMC in San Francisco.
 

G:A, counted today at 10am EST for Friday, November 19, 11 days to go:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 65 (9 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 9 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 13 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 12 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 10 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 83 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 42 (9 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 234.

Comps: NTTD had 1 day later, on Tuesday (= 10 days before the release) 944 sold tickets (by the way NTTD had 48 showtimes in sum and G:A has at the moment 36 so at least too few showtimes won't be the problem),
TSS had 4 days later, on Friday, 714 sold tickets
and Terminator: Dark Fate had back then 3 days later, on Thursday, 811 sold tickets.

No comp today is really fitting; next week I will have better ones. And probably it's not fair to compare the sales of this film to those of the long-awaited Bond movie. But that its sales will be under those of TSS on Friday, a movie which also had good reviews but a rather unpopular predecessor (I know here the 2016 film reception shouldn't count but it still could be that fans wait for more audience reactions before they plan to see it) is a bit surprising to me.
I'm sorry that I don't have better news today but no reason to worry. My report clearly is the outlier here and the jumps in the last week are way more important in my theaters.

Edit: Forget what I said (at least partly): I checked its Thursday sales a few minutes ago and they are way better: 679 sold tickets for Thursday (e.g. T6 had 575 on Thursday = 3 days left for G:A to increase the lead).

Edited November 8, 2021 by el sid

[Tinalera]

15 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Well, the bar for current success I'm using here is Free Guy, so it's not like I'm saying that it's gonna be super popular.  "Popular enough" I suppose is what I was more going for, as you're quite right about "cracking the code".  Something the originals found out to their dismay with the original sequel to GB.

The "cracking the code" is an interesting point. Going back to movies in the 80's, where you were relying on Siskel/Ebert, newspaper critics, and at most trailers to see a movie, and those results were in newspapers which were at day old news wise. So films pretty much had to go on word of mouth otherwise. We didn't have a world where leaks of footage or from people seeing extra extra early previews would be out there.

 

I think with todays era of information (absurd amount), critics, video blogs/podcasts, leaks, people commenting on extra early previews, discussion boards. So much data, so much info that people will base it on, and base on previous comparable movies with all that same data. 

 

Its really imo impossible to go into a movie blind anymore. Because even when see a movie, we aren't just talking about it with our friend/peer group-we are discussing it with thousands upon thousands of people on social media. I won't even get into the streaming part of it all, which is a whole other kettle of fish. So studios trying to "crack the code"-imo there IS no code (though props to Marvel/Disney for essentially assisting in

recreating the "event movie" idea. Because every movie that comes out now that all that said data and information and decision making based on it, and it shifts so rapidly, and who knows now anymore what makes a movie a "success" or a "failure" because it almost feels like its never the same circumstance twice. Its is own, constantly changing almost organism lol.

 

Anyway, sorry for wall of text, but its just something Ive been thinking for a while now

[Tinalera]

Ghostbusters Afterlife

Toronto Ontario 

Taken Nov 8 for Wed Nov 17

6 Theatres

6 shows

Total sold 147

Total remaining 1699

Total seats (sold plus remaining) 1846

percentage 7.96

 

[Tinalera]

Clifford the Big Red Dog

Toronto Ontario

Taken Mon Nov 8 for Wed Nov 10 previews.

Total theatres 9

total shows 39

Total sold 22

total remaining 8776

total seats (sold plus remaining) 8798

percentage .25 (no I don't think that point is misplaced)

 

 

Ummmm....

I don't want to jump to conclusions-but do Ontario schools have a holiday on Nov 11 for rememberance day? Because Im scratching my head otherwise who thought putting a kids movie preview on a WEDNESDAY was a good idea? And we aren't even talking prolly preteens, we are talking like maybe up to 9 or 10 years old? 

 

I dont understand it. Ill have to see what thursday/friday number are, but IMO this is not a real good look.

 

EDIT: Almost all shows have "late" (for kids" 930, 10pm) start times., As I said there are some noon and 3pm shows, but wouldn't kids be in school? Unless theyre aiming for "school trip" packages? 

Edited November 8, 2021 by Tinalera

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ghostbusters Afterlife Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

90

1660

5.42%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

80

1937

4.13%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
371	45	16293	2.28%	15	83

 

AMCs sold	313
Cinemarks sold	25
Regals sold	24
Harkins sold	9

 

Wednesday:

Total

20

786

 

F9 comp: 4.80M

Ghostbusters Afterlife Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

100

1660

6.02%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

100

1937

5.16%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
405	34	16293	2.49%	15	83

 

AMCs sold	344
Cinemarks sold	25
Regals sold	27
Harkins sold	9

 

Wednesday:

Total

19

786

 

NTTD comp: 4.41M

F9 comp: 4.98M

[CJohn]

GB will do like 60-70M OS. The big bulk of its gross will come from America. Right now I am thinking 30/100.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ghostbusters Afterlife Megaplex

 

T-10 days Wednesday(4 showings): 100(+4)/2144 in 4 theaters

 

T-11 days Thursday(59 showings): 222(+50)/19898(+519) in 15 theaters

 

T-12 days Friday(86 showings): 281(+49)/31653 in 14 theaters

 

T-13 days Saturday(83 showings): 211(+49)/30469(-272) in 13 theaters

 

T-14 days Sunday(69 showings): 26(+11)/24045(-566) in 11 theaters

 

No NTTD comp

Ghostbusters Afterlife Megaplex

 

T-9 days Wednesday(4 showings): 101(+1)/2144 in 4 theaters

 

T-10 days Thursday(60 showings): 249(+27)/20141(+243) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD comp: 2.49M

 

T-11 days Friday(86 showings): 309(+28)/31653 in 14 theaters

 

NTTD comp: 5.28M

 

T-12 days Saturday(83 showings): 247(+38)/30469 in 13 theaters

 

T-13 days Sunday(69 showings): 29(+3)/24045 in 11 theaters

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ghostbusters Afterlife Drafthouse

 

T-11 days Thursday(102 showings): 1918(+205)/16217

 

T-12 days Friday(111 showings): 1640(+312)/18051

 

T-13 days Saturday(129 showings): 1612(+305)/21144

 

T-14 days Sunday(106 showings): 740(+185)/16651

Ghostbusters Afterlife Drafthouse

 

T-10 days Thursday(102 showings): 2058(+140)/16217

 

T-11 days Friday(111 showings): 1788(+148)/18051

 

T-12 days Saturday(129 showings): 1794(+182)/21144

 

T-13 days Sunday(106 showings): 824(+84)/16651