The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Inceptionzq]

6 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Eternals Megaplex

 

T-1 days Friday(188 showings): 3878(+937)/51921(+225) in 15 theaters

 

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 17.00M

Eternals Megaplex Friday(188 showings):

 

4730(+852)/51921 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 25.60M

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 15.25M

 

BW was just a different beast at Megaplex. But the number increases are stronger than SC. Eternals did +1789 from yesterday's update, SC did +1579. I'll do another update tomorrow morning with some sort of prediction.

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Eternals Previews Final

MTC1 - 183064/487466 2912684.36 2843 shows +59562

MTC2 - 141135/420583 1832452.70 2965 shows +65046

 

So it did below SC at MTC1(around 5%) and above SC at MTC2(raw tickets sold). I would say round 10m previews(just plain extrapolation from SC gross and MTC ratio). This is a movie that seem to hone in on 10m for most of the trackers here. 

 

I just have MTC1 for Friday for now. will post MTC2 tomorrow morning(Friday runs take lot longer). 

MTC1 Friday PS End - 166712/1004158 2653459.74 5519 shows

 

SC added 192.9K tickets from its PS to end. Thinking based on ratio today Eternals is headed to 350K. I would say between 22-23m true friday. Let us see how the tomorrow goes. 

 

 

 

This run seems a couple of hours later than what you had for SC though. Still not sure about 10 but should be close at least. 

 

Actually MTC2 number is quite good though. 10m seems like it should happen. 

Edited November 5, 2021 by Menor

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I would say between 22-23m true friday. Let us see how the tomorrow goes. 

So we’d be looking at something like $78-82m with those numbers. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Anything about Spencer yet

[ThomasNicole]

Hoping for 23M true FRI and +80M OW, will be great all things considered.

[keysersoze123]

18 minutes ago, Menor said:

This run seems a couple of hours later than what you had for SC though. Still not sure about 10 but should be close at least. 

 

Actually MTC2 number is quite good though. 10m seems like it should happen. 

True. But MTC1 does not grow much late hours for these MCU movies. They are driven by PS early on. I did think of extrapolating on time and also SC being stronger in Canada. but they would be balanced by other region/theater chains. So I left it simple and just extrapolated on the gross. 

[charlie Jatinder]

@keysersoze123 can you give MTC 2 FRI and MTC 1 SAT if its not too late

 

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

True. But MTC1 does not grow much late hours for these MCU movies. They are driven by PS early on. I did think of extrapolating on time and also SC being stronger in Canada. but they would be balanced by other region/theater chains. So I left it simple and just extrapolated on the gross. 

3 smaller chains we track are significantly bigger than SC.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 11/2/2021 at 1:05 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Eternals Harkins T-3 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	221	55,722	2,371	4.26%	$27,628	$11.65
Cine 1	16	4,818	1,737	36.05%	$26,691	$15.37
Cine Capri	4	1,782	137	7.69%	$1,929	$14.08
IMAX	2	890	281	31.57%	$4,215	$15.00
3D	12	1,704	33	1.94%	$437	$13.24
Total	255	64,916	4,559	7.02%	$60,900	$13.36

 

Comps

1.32x Shang Chi T-3 Days - $11.6M

0.83x Black Widow T-3 Days - 11.5M (adjusted for Canada)

 

Better last 4 days, adding 1338, almost what Shang Chi did i.e. 1373. If trend was like other places Monday was probably over Shang Chi. Black Widow comp remained steady, but Shang Chi pace fell in last 3 days, hopefully Eternals manage itself. 

 

Harkins numbers are good enough for double digit so far, hopefully they hold.

Eternals Harkins Final 

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	240	58,800	12,619	21.46%	$141,525	$11.22
Cine 1	16	4,818	2,821	58.55%	$42,960	$15.23
Cine Capri	4	1,782	368	20.65%	$4,878	$13.26
IMAX	2	890	407	45.73%	$6,105	$15.00
3D	12	1,704	204	11.97%	$2,707	$13.27
Total	274	67,994	16,419	24.15%	$198,175	$12.07

 

Comps:

1.24x Shang Chi - $10.9M

0.81x Black Widow - $11.1M (adjusted for Canada)

 

After some mid run tension, sorta ended well. Though expectations were of $14M back in mid run, now $11M seems like really solid result considering. Also as it appears to be, over indexing in Harkins, but it had strong walk-ins after 6PM so may be all of your comps will do better if you were tracking the final numbers like me. 

 

Anyhow, main purpose of tracking this data is for calculating how small chains are doing. We now have 3 of them, Megaplex, Drafthouse (courtsey of @Inceptionzq) and all 3 are overindexing. Using this data, in support with MTC data, gives $10M previews.

[Porthos]

On 11/3/2021 at 11:18 PM, Porthos said:

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	108	16420	16695	275	1.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Day One	199
Total Seats Sold Day Two	49
Total Seats Sold Today	27

 

Day 3 Comp

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	50.09		78	549		0/92	13434/13983	3.93%		3.72m
TSS	114.11		29	241		0/81	13711/13952	1.73%		4.68m
SC	32.51		120	846		0/101	16156/17002	4.98%		2.86m
V2	54.24		90	507		0/148	24646/25153	2.02%		6.29m
NTTD	56.01		56	491		0/135	20500/20991	2.34%		3.47m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

====

 

Not a lot of great comps, so doing something of a scattershot.  I reckon Shang-Chi is a pretty terrible comp in particular, but I'll throw it in anyway (it having the same length of pre-sales is a minor plus at any rate).  Gonna shift to T-x comps in a couple of days (which will slaughter most comps except for SC).

 

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	108	16380	16695	315	1.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

40

 

Day 4 Comp

	%		Sold Day 4	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	54.03		34	583		0/92	13400/13983	4.17%		4.02m
TSS	121.62		18	259		0/81	13693/13952	1.86%		4.99m
SC	32.57		121	967		0/101	16035/17002	5.69%		2.87m
V2	55.36		62	569		0/150	24672/25241	2.25%		6.42m
NTTD	56.05		71	562		0/136	20817/21379	2.63%		3.48m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

====

 

Buoyed by some group sales that very likely won't be repeated in the coming days, but sales are sales. Switching over to T-x tomorrow, I think.  

[DAJK]

Comps in British Columbia give me 9.55M for Eternals. 

 

It's late lol, see you all in the morning!

[keysersoze123]

Eternals

MTC2 Friday PS Final - 112409/754981 1386264.71 4963 shows

MTC1 Saturday - 127166/1056538 1916694.48 5752 shows

 

@charlie Jatinder These numbers are as of yesterday night. SC did slightly under 160K tickets. So Eternals should be headed towards 270-275K. Still sticking to the range I provided yesterday.

 

Quote

 Shang Chi MTC2 - 89756/919804 1081838.07 6488 shows

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 10/29/2021 at 2:47 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D	Dolby	D-Box	XD	RPX
Dune	3,313	54,311	-34.30%	47,054	7,257	3,428	1,112	386	430	1,449	452
Halloween Kills	2,972	41,468	-26.24%	41,246	222	0	0	137	79	6	0
Last Night in Soho	2,701	37,843		35,675	2,168	0	0	2,168	0	0	0
Antlers	2,572	36,968		36,849	119	0	0	119	0	0	0
Ron's Gone Wrong	3,002	34,650	-19.21%	34,362	288	0	172	116	0	0	0
Venom 2	2,726	33,536	-10.24%	33,168	368	0	164	117	21	51	15
No Time to Die	2,857	29,769	-12.42%	29,592	177	18	8	117	15	10	9
My Hero Academia	1,504	25,807		23,953	1,854	0	0	64	526	578	686
Addams Family 2	2,274	22,840	-10.23%	22,742	98	0	0	98	0	0	0
French Dispatch	750	12,647	774.02%	12,647	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mouthful of Air	782	10,035		10,035	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Shang-Chi	987	8,195	-34.59%	8,171	24	0	0	24	0	0	0
Last Duel	822	5,044	-79.36%	5,044	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ghostbusters	707	4,008		4,008	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Quiet Place 2	612	3,184		3,182	2	0	0	0	2	0	0
Free Guy	147	992	-55.48%	980	12	0	12	0	0	0	0
Candyman	80	497	-34.86%	497	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

 

Updated to include AM shows.  Came across another error from this morning's 3D show count that has been updated as well.

 

Future release show counts

 

T-1 Week

Eternals - 71,800 (10,879 previews)

Spencer - 8,816 (1,361 previews)

 

T-2 Weeks previews

Clifford - 4,149 (includes 28 shows on 10/30)

 

T-3 Weeks previews

Ghostbusters - 3,137 (440 IMAX) (Cinemax not listed yet)

US showtimes sample 11/5 weekend

 

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D	Dolby	D-Box	XD	RPX
Eternals	3,436	118,603		98,103	20,500	4,339	8,692	2,652	1,168	2,324	1,325
Halloween Kills	2,668	29,970	-27.73%	29,869	101	0	0	101	0	0	0
Dune	2,934	28,855	-46.87%	28,693	162	2	67	93	0	0	0
Antlers	2,529	26,640	-27.94%	26,564	76	0	0	76	0	0	0
Venom 2	2,284	26,277	-21.65%	26,148	129	0	38	91	0	0	0
No Time to Die	2,426	22,913	-23.03%	22,801	112	0	0	112	0	0	0
Last Night in Soho	2,652	20,998	-44.51%	20,954	44	0	0	44	0	0	0
Ron's Gone Wrong	2,149	18,357	-47.02%	18,274	83	0	30	53	0	0	0
My Hero Academia	1,357	14,597	-43.44%	14,510	87	0	0	46	41	0	0
French Dispatch	1,033	12,122	-4.15%	12,122	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Addams Family 2	1,485	12,119	-46.94%	12,067	52	0	0	52	0	0	0
Spencer	840	11,579		11,579	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Red Notice	653	8,655		8,630	25	0	0	25	0	0	0
Sooryavanshi	410	3,512		3,512	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Annaatthe	304	2,288		2,288	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A Mouthful of Air	637	2,184	-78.24%	2,184	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Shang-Chi	324	2,117	-74.17%	2,111	6	0	0	6	0	0	0
The Last Duel	116	724	-85.65%	724	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

 

Bottom three took huge hits in show count.   I didn't have a way to parse out expansion previews for Dispatch this week so that's what causes the drop (in addition to losing previews from last week).  

 

Previews shows

Eternals - 14,155

Spencer - 1,436

Red Notice - 778

 

Future releases show counts

 

T-1 week

Clifford Tuesday - 7,601

Clifford weekend - 19,260 (1,594 TC)

Belfast - 3,960 (326 TC)

 

T-2 weeks previews

Ghostbusters Wednesday - 148

Ghostbusters Thursday - 9,550 (2,316 TC)

[john2000]

https://deadline.com/2021/11/eternals-opening-weekend-box-office-1234868870/

 

‘Eternals’ Powers Up $9.5M Thursday Night, 3rd Best Preview Night During Pandemic

 

congrats again, predictions were 9,5-10 so close right in your range.

[Eric Loves Rey]

14 hours ago, Eric loves Ajak said:

Eternals Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	4	83	5275	15110	34.91%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,622

 

Comp

0.695x of Black Widow (9.17M)

1.110x of Shang-Chi (9.78M)

 

I mean my data and gut say 9.5M, but if others are seeing 10M, maybe things are underperforming. Who knows?

 

Look at this jackass. Should have stuck with his gut.

[Ms Lady Hawk]

Our trackers here are awesome! Thank you. It did almost exactly what most of you expected. 

[charlie Jatinder]

[Menor the Destroyer]

Cursed. I mean obviously not an awful miss but it seems like I'm 300-400k off every time. Should have stuck with my 9.7.

Edited November 5, 2021 by Menor

[john2000]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

i just have realised that in every preview so far for this year , this thread is usually some 300k-500k or so off.SUCH A DISSAPOINTMENT , YOU ARE ALL FIRED

 

👀

[keysersoze123]

As I posted in weekend thread, MCU movies tend to over index at MTC. Its over 50% of gross !!!. Today ratio will go down but Canada for Eternals will be weaker relative to SC.