The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

17 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Eternals Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 Day and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	136	13796	18468	4672	25.30%

 

Total Showings Added Today	6
Total Seats Added Today	309
Total Seats Sold Today	739

 

T-1 Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
SC	111.98		893	4172		0/188	20813/24985	16.70%		9.85m
V2	91.13		1372	5127		0/244	28009/33136	15.47%		10.57m
BW	67.28		1144	6944		0/258	25357/32301	21.50%		9.30m

COMP NOTE: The Black Widow comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Regal: 1097/6225 [17.62% sold] [+198 tickets]

 

====

 

Yeaaah, if Sacto is representative this isn't hitting 10m unless things turn around radically in walkups tomorrow.  9.5m looks like the target, though with MTC2 hiking prices that should bump things up a bit, so 9.7m could be in the cards.

 

One interesting thing is the percent of seats sold.  Eternals is aksually at the highest percentage of seats sold of all four movies here.  Its problem is, just not enough showtimes to go around (which is also the lowest of all four movies), which is almost certainly thanks to the double whammy of film length and staffing shortages (particularly on weekdays). Though I'm sure the less-than-stellar reviews ain't helping convince some theaters to squeeze out an extra showing here and there.

 

Has some implications for the internal multiplier if the WOM is good enough.

 

(Should be noted that Let There Be Carnage was just the opposite with short length and 4pm previews, so it shouldn't be too surprising to see V2 just lap right past it.)

 

Eternals Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT): [12:00pm - 12:30pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	136	13154	18468	5314	28.77%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

642

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comp

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
SC [12:00-12:55]	110.57		634	4806		0/192	20644/25450	18.88%		9.73m
V2 [12:00-12:55]	83.78		1216	6343		0/247	27313/33656	18.85%		9.71m
BW [12:00-12:55]	67.82		891	7835		0/258	24466/32301	24.26%		9.37m

COMP NOTE: The Black Widow comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Regal: 1338/6225 [21.49% sold] [+241 tickets]

 

====

 

No real change from last night, looking to converge on the 9.5m-ish range, especially after factoring in the ticket price rise at MTC 2.  Little concerned that the BW comp only went up a smidge, but, eh, at least it didn't go down.  Not much else to say that hasn't been said.

Edited November 4, 2021 by Porthos

[el sid]

Eternals, counted today at 11am EST for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 517 (8 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 842 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 127 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 86 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 261 (10 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 1.038 (13 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.196 (18 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 4.067.

Up 13.5% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Thursday): TSS (4.1M from previews) had 1.929 sold tickets = 8.65M,

SC (8.8M) had 3.617 sold tickets = 9.9M,

NTTD (5.2M) had sold tickets = 8.9M,

Dune (5.1M) had sold tickets = 8.25M

and Venom 2 (11.6M) had sold tickets = 13.9M – that would be nice but I don't trust this number because Venom jumped 35% from Wednesday to Thursday and Eternals lost compared to yesterday 2.75M in the Venom comp.
So without Venom 2 the average would be 9M (8.95M) from previews.

Eternals, counted today at 11am EST for tomorrow:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 702 (13 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 736 (16 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 197 (15 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 86 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 179 (12 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 1.136 (19 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.054 (15 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 4.090.

Up 13% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): TSS (8M true Friday) had 1.560 sold tickets = 20.95M true Friday,

SC (20.7M) had 3.740 sold tickets = 22.65M,

NTTD (17M) had 2.715 sold tickets = 25.6M,

Dune (12.4M) had sold tickets = 14.4M (that comp went up and as mentioned, no HBO Max this time)

and Venom 2 (25.8M) had 1 day later 4.362 sold tickets for Friday (93.5% with 1 day left for Eternals, so it will reach it tomorrow but probably won't have the same amount of walk-ups).
Overall all comps (only Dune is the exception) point to over 20M true Friday. Therefore I would also guess it will reach high 70s.

[Tinalera]

5 hours ago, Eric loves Ajak said:

So I'm compiling some stuff up to report on Sing 2 later tonight (I know, I know), but I found something really weird with Clifford that I want to vent about.

 

So I assumed it would just be a regular Wednesday release, but there are "Early Access" shows on Tuesday. You would think it would serve as previews, or just like one showing at 7. But instead, it's just...a whole day of showing. These "Early Access" shows start at like 12.

 

What kind of lunacy is this? These aren't previews are "Early Access" or any of that kind of crap. This is deadass a whole day's worth of showtimes, starting at like noon and shit. I don't think there's any discounts either, outside of chains that do $5 Tuesday or whatever. What jackass at Paramount put in all this pomp and circumstance for just a regular day of showtimes? Just grow some balls and debut the film on a Tuesday and not make me waste my time tallying up two days' worth of tickets (you know these "Early Access" sales will get rolled into the Wednesday OD). What a bunch of donkeys!

 

Okay, my first world problem venting is over. You can all now debate about Eternals.

Wont be long before a new movie opens on the Monday, that way studios can say "hey, look at our Mon-tues-wed-thurs-Friday opening weekend numbers!" 

 

[cax16]

I took SC numbers at this time when it released and it was 491 seats sold for preview night, Eternals is at 269 at the same point. 

[XXR vs XXR]

I’m going with $9.6M for Eternals tonight. Seeing it in 2 hours. Happy Eternals Day, yall!

[cdsacken]

Damn with it had better reviews. Was really hoping for slim chance at 100s. Now obviously best case scenario seems like 80 and that's unlikely given lukewarm reception. Maybe 70ish?

 

The consistency of the preview projections on this thread is incredible across multiple areas. Kudos folks.

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

Eternals:

6:00 Dolby: 155/236 (+17)

6:45 IMAX: 77/372 (+23)

7:15: 54/107 (+13)

7:45 3D: 22/67 (+13)

8:15: 51/107 (+19)

8:45 Open Caption: 20/107 (+9)

9:15: 21/40 (New)

9:45 Dolby: 145/236 (+31)

10:15: 17/54 (New)

10:30 IMAX: 36/372 (+20)

Total: 598/1,698 (+183)

 

Comps:

 

94% of Black Widow (12.4M)

116% of Shang-Chi (10.2M)

159% of Dune (8.1M)

172% of Venom 2 (22.5M)

 

Great finish that puts it right between Shang-Chi and Black Widow. The former overperformed at my theater, so I'm confident 9.5M will happen at least. Final Prediction: 11.2M

 

 

 

 

Edited November 4, 2021 by WrathOfHan

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ghostbusters Afterlife Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

52

1660

3.13%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

61

1937

3.15%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
283	7	15803	1.79%	15	79

 

AMCs sold	248
Cinemarks sold	15
Regals sold	14
Harkins sold	6

 

NTTD comp: 4.23M

F9 comp: 4.48M

Ghostbusters Afterlife Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

56

1660

3.37%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

65

1937

3.36%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
298	15	16293	1.83%	15	83

 

AMCs sold	260
Cinemarks sold	15
Regals sold	17
Harkins sold	6

 

NTTD comp: 4.22M

F9 comp: 4.45M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ghostbusters Afterlife Megaplex

 

T-15 days Thursday(56 showings): 151(+8)/19379 in 14 theaters

 

NTTD comp: 1.46M

 

T-16 days Friday(86 showings): 175(+41)/31653 in 14 theaters

 

NTTD comp: 4.34M

 

T-17 days Saturday(84 showings): 116/30741 in 13 theaters

 

T-18 days Sunday(70 showings): 11/24661 in 11 theaters

Ghostbusters Afterlife Megaplex

 

T-14 days Thursday(56 showings): 162(+11)/19379 in 14 theaters

 

NTTD comp: 1.46M

 

T-15 days Friday(86 showings): 217(+42)/31653 in 14 theaters

 

NTTD comp: 4.86M

 

T-16 days Saturday(84 showings): 132(+16)/30741 in 13 theaters

 

T-17 days Sunday(70 showings): 11/24661 in 11 theaters

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ghostbusters Afterlife Drafthouse

 

T-15 days Thursday(98 showings): 1460(+115)/15614(-151)

 

T-16 days Friday(108 showings): 1145(+152)/17586

 

T-17 days Saturday(126 showings): 1045/20679

 

T-18 days Sunday(104 showings): 445/16341

Ghostbusters Afterlife Drafthouse

 

T-14 days Thursday(98 showings): 1575(+115)/15614

 

T-15 days Friday(108 showings): 1277(+132)/17586

 

T-16 days Saturday(126 showings): 1151(+106)/20679

 

T-17 days Sunday(104 showings): 492(+47)/16341

 

Put the wrong Saturday number yesterday

[Ronin46]

Box Office Pro

 

Eternals 78

Dune 7.2

NTTD 4.6

Venom 2.9

 

No forecast for Spencer.

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

8 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-0	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	72	10,311	1,285	250	12.46%
		Phoenix	7	58	8,905	1,528	243	17.16%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,098	1,333	236	32.53%
	Eternals Total		21	167	23,314	4,146	729	17.78%
	Spencer	Jacksonville	3	7	413	9	2	2.18%
		Phoenix	3	7	799	39	14	4.88%
		Raleigh	2	3	164	24	6	14.63%
	Spencer Total		8	17	1,376	72	22	5.23%
T-13	Ghostbusters (Wed)	Jacksonville	2	2	558	0	0	0.00%
	Ghostbusters (Wed) Total		2	2	558	0	0	0.00%
T-14	Ghostbusters	Jacksonville	7	58	9,824	79	23	0.80%
		Phoenix	6	27	4,640	142	10	3.06%
		Raleigh	7	28	4,025	120	17	2.98%
	Ghostbusters Total		20	113	18,489	341	50	1.84%

 

Eternals comps

BW - .716x (9.45m)

SC - 1.376x (12.11m)

TSS - 3.272x (13.42m)

Venom 2 - 1.108x (12.85m)

 

Not a fan of the BW comp dropping three days in a row.  Leaning closer to 9.5m than 10m at this point with one update to go.  The good thing is that ATP for sales in my areas are exactly a dollar higher than they were for BW.

 

Ghostbusters comps

TSS - 1.38x (5.66m)

NTTD - .886x (4.61m)

Dune - .812x (4.14m)

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Late	Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	76	12,095	2,333	555	19.29%
		Phoenix	7	77	10,692	1,881	270	17.59%
		Raleigh	8	74	8,303	3,148	746	37.91%
	Black Widow Total		21	227	31,090	7,362	1,571	23.68%
	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	72	10,311	1,811	526	17.56%
		Phoenix	7	59	8,999	1,848	320	20.54%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,098	1,713	380	41.80%
	Eternals Total		21	168	23,408	5,372	1,226	22.95%
	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	60	8,619	1,423	493	16.51%
		Phoenix	7	51	7,193	1,349	262	18.75%
		Raleigh	8	40	4,505	1,327	332	29.46%
	Shang-Chi Total		21	151	20,317	4,099	1,087	20.18%
	Suicide Squad	Jacksonville	6	30	5,373	665	265	12.38%
		Phoenix	7	31	4,202	648	182	15.42%
		Raleigh	8	29	3,464	645	244	18.62%
	Suicide Squad Total		21	90	13,039	1,958	691	15.02%

 

Looks like Eternals is having pretty good walkups.  If it can maintain this throughout the night we could hit 10m, but I'm a little worried about capacity issues.

 

Comps

BW - .73x (9.63m)

SC - 1.31x (11.53m)

TSS - 2.74x (11.25m)

 

Official prediction - 9.8m

[Old Spice]

Salt Lake City, Don't Shoot Me, I'm Just the Messenger, 4:00 PM update, Sugarhouse Cinemark.

 

Eternals

 

6:00 PM 62/106

6:30 26/46

7:00 47/62

8:0026/62

9:40 31/106

10:10 5/46

10:40 6/62

 

Total 197/490 40.2%

 

Comps

TSS $3.59

NTTD $3.73

Dune $4.39

 

I almost didn't post this because it is SUCH an outlier, but I have double checked the numbers and it is what it is. I have no idea what is going on as Salt Lake is traditionally very hospitable to all things fantasy. Gonna defer to the folks with larger samples on this one.

 

 

 

 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Eternals Megaplex

 

T-2 days Friday(187 showings): 2941(+649)/51696(+830) in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 27.11M

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 17.04M

 

T-3 days Saturday(185 showings): 1660(+372)/51358(+724) in 15 theaters

 

T-4 days Sunday(167 showings): 426(+86)/45999 in 15 theaters

Eternals Megaplex

 

T-1 days Friday(188 showings): 3878(+937)/51921(+225) in 15 theaters

 

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 17.00M

 

T-2 days Saturday(187 showings): 2151(+491)/51614(+256) in 15 theaters

 

T-3 days Sunday(168 showings): 577(+151)/46209(+210) in 15 theaters

 

Didn't do a midday update for SC Friday, so no comp. But I'll do one tonight and I have a comp for that.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Eternals Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-2 days Friday(286 showings): 8714(+1222)/38124(+3408)

 

Dune comp: 13.08M

 

T-3 days Saturday(317 showings): 8269(+1041)/42721(+4450)

 

Dune comp: 14.24M

 

T-4 days Sunday(267 showings): 4920(+523)/36266(+2097)

 

Dune comp: 8.87M

Eternals Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 days Friday(286 showings): 10440(+1726)/38124

 

Dune comp: 13.30M

 

T-2 days Saturday(317 showings): 9889(+1620)/42721

 

Dune comp: 14.49M

 

T-3 days Sunday(277 showings): 5685(+765)/37347(+1081)

 

Dune comp: 8.94M

[moviestonks]

4 minutes ago, A Star is Orm said:

Salt Lake City, Don't Shoot Me, I'm Just the Messenger, 4:00 PM update, Sugarhouse Cinemark.

 

Eternals

 

6:00 PM 62/106

6:30 26/46

7:00 47/62

8:0026/62

9:40 31/106

10:10 5/46

10:40 6/62

 

Total 197/490 40.2%

 

Comps

TSS $3.59

NTTD $3.73

Dune $4.39

 

I almost didn't post this because it is SUCH an outlier, but I have double checked the numbers and it is what it is. I have no idea what is going on as Salt Lake is traditionally very hospitable to all things fantasy. Gonna defer to the folks with larger samples on this one.

 

 

 

 

While I think this would be an unfortunate reason, do you think it could be due to the LGBT content? Not sure how that does in SLC typically - could envision an impact on LDS appetite for this film, whereas they (and big families) may be a driver of Marvel in SLC otherwise

[Krissykins]

1 minute ago, moviestonks said:

While I think this would be an unfortunate reason, do you think it could be due to the LGBT content? Not sure how that does in SLC typically - could envision an impact on LDS appetite for this film, whereas they (and big families) may be a driver of Marvel in SLC otherwise

I doubt the general public even know, so I’d say no. 

[keysersoze123]

Eternals Update

MTC1 Prev - 154403/485579 2505434.05 2817 shows

MTC2 Prev - 102860/408514 1362979.59  2837 shows

 

Really strong day so far. Thinking 10m previews can happen. Would require MTC1 around 190K and MTC around 140K. Definitely possible unless its peters out too early. Around 4.85 million between the 2 should be enough. 

Edited November 4, 2021 by keysersoze123

[Old Spice]

8 minutes ago, moviestonks said:

While I think this would be an unfortunate reason, do you think it could be due to the LGBT content? Not sure how that does in SLC typically - could envision an impact on LDS appetite for this film, whereas they (and big families) may be a driver of Marvel in SLC otherwise

 

I hadn't thought of that, but honestly I doubt it. The thing most people don't realize about Utah is that Salt Lake City, despite being the world headquarters of the LDS Church, is a liberal island in a sea of conservatism. Think, Austin in Texas. There are other parts of the state, Provo, for example, where I could see that being an issue, but not here.

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Eternals Update

MTC1 Prev - 154403/485579 2505434.05 2817 shows

MTC2 Prev - 102860/408514 1362979.59  2837 shows

 

Really strong day so far. Thinking 10m previews can happen. Would require MTC1 around 190K and MTC around 140K. Definitely possible unless its peters out too early. Around 4.85 million between the 2 should be enough. 

10 seems tough from there. At least the 140k target seems hard. SC added 36k between your update around this time (I think you updated around half an hour before this) and final. Eternals has a longer runtime so walkups for late shows would be lower. 

Edited November 4, 2021 by Menor