The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Menor said:

10 seems tough from there. At least the 140k target seems hard. SC added 36k between your update around this time and final. Eternals has a longer runtime so walkups for late shows would be lower. 

MTC1 has been strong. Let us see how the day goes. I could be optimistic but last hour it did close to 5750 tickets in MTC1. Need to stay strong and ramp up a little as shows start in central and beyond. Venom 2 was uber strong during these hours but I agree that run time for venom was so small that they squeezed crazy amount of shows. I wonder if 185K/135K can happen and that could be enough if rest of the markets also do well with walkups. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 has been strong. Let us see how the day goes. I could be optimistic but last hour it did close to 5750 tickets in MTC1. Need to stay strong and ramp up a little as shows start in central and beyond. Venom 2 was uber strong during these hours but I agree that run time for venom was so small that they squeezed crazy amount of shows. I wonder if 185K/135K can happen and that could be enough if rest of the markets also do well with walkups. 

I was eyeballing somewhere around that, but would go with ~9.7 off of those numbers. 

[Inceptionzq]

12 minutes ago, A Star is Orm said:

 

I hadn't thought of that, but honestly I doubt it. The thing most people don't realize about Utah is that Salt Lake City, despite being the world headquarters of the LDS Church, is a liberal island in a sea of conservatism. Think, Austin in Texas. There are other parts of the state, Provo, for example, where I could see that being an issue, but not here.

Yeah I doubt this factor will be seen in the numbers, even in the Provo area. Geneva Megaplex is still extremely strong as usual. Plus you have to consider the demographics of those that are actually going to MCU movies, especially to Thursday previews, and the impact lessens more from however small it was already

[TalismanRing]

NYC Local (6pm)

 

Eternals: 522/1753 (6pm)

 

COMPS

Joker: $9.14m

Shang-Chi: $8.89m

BW: $13.84m

Birds Of Prey: $12.58m

The Suicide Squad: $14.33m

Dune: $14.95m

Bond: $16.54m

Venom 2: $19.9m
 

Avg: $13.77m

Avg SH films (SC, BW, BOP, TSS) = $12.41m (Venom and Joker tossed as preview sale heavy/preview sale soft extremes.)

Avg MCU: SC & BW : $11.365 m

 

SC sold 2.6% more preview tickets here but did only 67% of BW previews.  I think the big Asian demographic of the area will weigh it heavier toward SC rather than 50/50 though not all the way toward SC because it's a more diverse cast - maybe 75-80/25-20. ($9.88 - $10.13)  My estimate: $10m

Edited November 4, 2021 by TalismanRing

[ThatWaluigiDude]

Is there anything for Clifford already or haven't started yet?

[Inceptionzq]

On 11/3/2021 at 4:04 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Eternals Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

609

1716

35.49%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

494

1996

24.75%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2860	368	17292	16.54%	15	104

 

AMCs sold	1665
Cinemarks sold	523
Regals sold	455
Harkins sold	217

 

Shang-Chi comp: 10.59M
Adjusted Black Widow comp: 9.72M

 

Ahead of SC's pace today. If Eternals can match what SC did up to release, then both comps will point to around 9.8M. That might be a bit much to ask since it's not praised like SC was. But we'll see, should at least be low-mid 9Ms

Eternals Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

784

1716

45.69%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

688

1996

34.47%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4452	1592	17292	25.75%	15	104

 

AMCs sold	2270
Cinemarks sold	912
Regals sold	783
Harkins sold	487

 

Shang-Chi comp: 9.71M

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 9.67M

 

Quite a strong finish, pretty much on par with SC. Not much else to say, this is close to what I expected after yesterday. I'll go with what my comps say and go with 9.7M

[Eric Loves Rey]

20 hours ago, Eric loves Ajak said:

Eternals Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	3653	15110	24.18%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 110

Total Seats Sold Today: 517

 

Comp

0.710x of Black Widow T-1 (9.38M)

1.128x of Shang-Chi T-1 (9.92M)

 

I don't know man, it's just not catching up when it comes to comps. Kind of a weird reoccurring pattern the past few weeks in fact. Maybe it's just my comps being set too high? Either way...I still have concerns on this movie here.

Eternals Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	4	83	5275	15110	34.91%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,622

 

Comp

0.695x of Black Widow (9.17M)

1.110x of Shang-Chi (9.78M)

 

I mean my data and gut say 9.5M, but if others are seeing 10M, maybe things are underperforming. Who knows?

[Inceptionzq]

On 11/3/2021 at 4:08 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Eternals Megaplex

 

T-1 days Thursday(70 showings): 2927(+431)/20685 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 10.42M

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 8.13M

Eternals Megaplex

 

T-0 days Thursday(80 showings): 4841(+1914)/22010(+1325) in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 10.01M

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 8.08M

 

BW performed stronger here, I expected Eternals to perform more like that, but it's way more of a SC. Don't think it'll hit 10M, but it'll be close. So I think this supports the 9.7M prediction I have with Denver

[Inceptionzq]

On 11/3/2021 at 4:14 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Eternals Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 days Thursday(144 showings): 7907(+776)/19525(+1716)

 

Dune comp: 7.05M

Eternals Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-0 days Thursday(143 showings): 10044(+2137)/18957(-568)

 

Dune comp: 6.67M

 

Like I said when I first started posting this here, Dune won't be a good comp.

[Legion Again]

These regionals are pointing to 10 imo after ATP, but high 9s wouldn’t be surprising by any means.

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Eternals Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-0 days Thursday(143 showings): 10044(+2137)/18957(-568)

Depending on where it end after walk-ins in show, Drafthouse ratio is 1-1.2% of Nationwide. This seems like is $125K will be giving $10-12.5M. 

 

Overindexing.

[Menor the Destroyer]

With @Inceptionzq also saying 9.7, I am going to make that call before we get final MTC numbers. I am fairly confident it's going to land in that ballpark. 

 

Spoiler

Now, let's hopefully continue the trend of me being a few hundred thousand off on previews, but this time in the right direction for 10

 

Edited November 5, 2021 by Menor

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Eternals Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT): [12:00pm - 12:30pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	136	13154	18468	5314	28.77%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

642

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comp

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
SC [12:00-12:55]	110.57		634	4806		0/192	20644/25450	18.88%		9.73m
V2 [12:00-12:55]	83.78		1216	6343		0/247	27313/33656	18.85%		9.71m
BW [12:00-12:55]	67.82		891	7835		0/258	24466/32301	24.26%		9.37m

COMP NOTE: The Black Widow comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Regal: 1338/6225 [21.49% sold] [+241 tickets]

 

====

 

No real change from last night, looking to converge on the 9.5m-ish range, especially after factoring in the ticket price rise at MTC 2.  Little concerned that the BW comp only went up a smidge, but, eh, at least it didn't go down.  Not much else to say that hasn't been said.

 

Eternals Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT): [4:50pm - 5:20pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	147	12843	19252	6409	33.29%

 

Total Showings Added Since Mid-Day	11
Total Seats Added Since Mid-Day	784
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	1095

 

T-0 Comp

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
SC [4:40-5:30]	109.61		1041	5847		0/196	19856/25703	22.75%		9.65m
V2 [3:50-4:35]	83.10		1369	7712		0/249	26023/33735	22.86%		9.64m
BW [4:20-5:20]	69.69		1361	9196		0/260	23235/32431	28.36%		9.63m

COMP NOTE: The Black Widow comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Regal: 1758/6385 [21.49% sold] [+420 tickets]

 

====

 

Some showtimes got added at some of the better theaters in town at the last minute which is always a good sign. 

 

All the Marvel comps are pretty much in agreement (9.65m or so), but there is the ticket price hike at MTC 2, which is almost exactly half of my ticket sales I track (3246/6409).  If I adjust about 5% upwards, I get 10.1m, but I've been burned by ad-hoc adjustments before (though it worked out rather well for Dune), so I think I'll lower it very slightly.

 

Let's say 9.9m +/- .4m.

 

I so badly want to say 10m, and I won't be surprised if Disney fudges it for psyops reasons, but I'm just a little leery of actually doing it.  So 9.9m it is.

 

(NB: If it comes in at 10.1m or 9.7m, you bet your ass I'm claiming credit — it's within the range anyway )

[Menor the Destroyer]

26 minutes ago, Avatar Legion said:

These regionals are pointing to 10 imo after ATP, but high 9s wouldn’t be surprising by any means.

MTC2 ATP is identical to SC (I know there were price hikes in Sac but overall it's the same). MTC1 does seem around 3-5% higher though. Could make a difference in MTC1 heavy markets. 

Edited November 5, 2021 by Menor

[Porthos]

Oh yes, I consider this a good omen:

 

BW Comp:                69.69%

Regal Ticket Sales: +420 tickets sold

 

With that sort of Meme Power, maybe this will hit 10m after all! 

 

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, Menor said:

MTC2 ATP is identical to SC (I know there were price hikes in Sac but overall it's the same). MTC1 does seem around 3-5% higher though. Could make a difference in MTC1 heavy markets. 

 

Really?  I thought @katnisscinnaplex mentioned ticket hikes for some of the MTC 2 theaters they were tracking as well.

 

If that's accurate, gonna shift down my predict back to 9.7m.

 

Though you mention MTC1 is higher... Hmmm. Might stick with it then.  Gonna think.

Edited November 5, 2021 by Porthos

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

Really?  I thought @katnisscinnaplex mentioned ticket hikes for some of the MTC 2 theaters they were tracking as well.

 

If that's accurate, gonna shift down my predict back to 9.7m.

Based on scraper data, they are almost identical. Kinda odd though, I remember that Katniss said that now that you mention it. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

Really?  I thought @katnisscinnaplex mentioned ticket hikes for some of the MTC 2 theaters they were tracking as well.

 

If that's accurate, gonna shift down my predict back to 9.7m.

 

Here are my final sales for each movie (sold tickets * price)

BW - $94,329 (12.81)

Shang-Chi - $54,964 (13.41)

Eternals - $74,356 (13.84)

 

This is total for my three areas and includes a few of each chain along with some others.   

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

Based on scraper data, they are almost identical. Kinda odd though, I remember that Katniss said that now that you mention it. 

 

Weird.  Makes me want to shift to at least 9.8m, though as you say MTC 1 is up a smidge.

 

Can't make it too easy for this thread, I suppose.  

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Weird.  Makes me want to shift to at least 9.8m, though as you say MTC 1 is up a smidge.

 

Can't make it too easy for this thread, I suppose.  

Could be some PLF skew thing, maybe people are going for IMAX for Eternals just a tad more than SC, skewing MTC2's ATP down slightly and MTC1 up. Would expect it to make maybe a 2-3% difference overall as MTC1 is bigger.