The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[LuisDHern]

Cinema Score is a B. How is that score going to affect WOM?

[Inceptionzq]

7 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Eternals Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 days Saturday(321 showings): 12852(+2963)/43046(+325)

 

Dune comp: 14.64M

 

Saturday is 23.1% ahead of Friday at the same time. But that's normal in this chain because they open earlier on Saturdays. Dune's Sat was 23.7% ahead of its Fri at the same time for example.

Eternals Alamo Drafthouse Saturday(321 showings)

 

14919(+2067)/43046

 

Dune comp: 14.79M

[keysersoze123]

Eternals Friday Final

MTC1 - 343722/1018853 5160402.58 5731 shows

MTC2 - 266624/779643 3127271.61 5109 shows

 

Probably around 22m friday. 

 

Eternals Sat PS final MTC1 - 177252/1067113 2597459.60 5898 shows

 

Thinking  25m saturdy.

 

 

On 9/3/2021 at 8:50 PM, keysersoze123 said:

SC Friday

MTC1 - 337710/1076502 4788913.01 6136 shows

MTC2 - 249327/952803 2865832.95 6694 shows

 

Hit both my targets. Thinking around 19m friday as MTC share will be higher. 

 

[Inceptionzq]

7 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Eternals Megaplex

 

T-1 days Saturday(191 showings): 3370(+1219)/52304(+690) in 15 theaters

 

Saturday is at 86.9% of what Friday was at yesterday at the same time. I guess for comparison's sake, Dune's afternoon Sat T-1 was 88.3% of its Fri T-1, and NTTD was 84.9%. So seems normal.

Eternals Megaplex Saturday(195 showings)

 

4538(+1168)/52564(+260) in 15 theaters

 

95.9% of what Friday was at the same time yesterday. Dune's Sat was 96.3% of its Fri. Didn't count for NTTD at this time, so no comparison there. But like yesterday, though on limited data, nothing seems out of the norm. Hard to draw conclusions from this, especially since Dune overperformed in Megaplex. May or may not update in the morning.

[Porthos]

On 11/4/2021 at 11:44 PM, Porthos said:

 

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	108	16380	16695	315	1.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

40

 

Day 4 Comp

	%		Sold Day 4	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	54.03		34	583		0/92	13400/13983	4.17%		4.02m
TSS	121.62		18	259		0/81	13693/13952	1.86%		4.99m
SC	32.57		121	967		0/101	16035/17002	5.69%		2.87m
V2	55.36		62	569		0/150	24672/25241	2.25%		6.42m
NTTD	56.05		71	562		0/136	20817/21379	2.63%		3.48m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

====

 

Buoyed by some group sales that very likely won't be repeated in the coming days, but sales are sales. Switching over to T-x tomorrow, I think.  

 

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	108	16331	16695	364	2.18%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

49

 

T-13 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
TSS	107.69		14	338		0/81	13614/13952	2.42%		4.42m
SC	34.21		97	1064		0/101	15938/17002	6.26%		3.01m
V2	37.53		92	970		0/155	24891/25861	3.75%		4.35m
NTTD	46.67		57	780		0/135	20479/21259	3.67%		2.89m

PRE-SALE NOTE: The Suicide Squad's and Let There Be Carnage's tickets have been on sale for five more days than Ghostbusters: Afterlife's tickets have been on sale, while No Time to Die's tickets have been on sale for three more days.

 

T-13 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	35.81		48	983		0/79	11432/12415	7.92%		2.66m
GA (adj)	---		49	352		0/94	14183/14535	2.42%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: GA (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: F9's tickets have been on sale for six more days than Ghostbusters: Afterlife's tickets have been on sale.

 

==

 

Not gonna show it from the comps (which predictably got slaughtered in the shift to T-x), but it was aksually a pretty good day locally with sales up and down the region.  Was another spurt at one of the theaters, but unlike last night was more spread out.

 

Now let's see how long it takes for the comps to recover and make up for the disparate length in pre-sale windows (if they do).

Edited November 7, 2021 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

54 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Eternals Sat PS final MTC1 - 177252/1067113 2597459.60 5898 shows

 

Thinking  25m saturdy.

Really? That's like +24% in admits from FRI. Bit lower than usual increase in PSM will give 475K admits i.e. $6.5M. Should be +30-35% IMO.

Edited November 6, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

Got the actual data for previews. Problem was that MTC1 was almost 100% coverage now. Not that we are covering 100% theater but since we use adult prices for all, they are overpricing the actual ATP.

 

MTC2 is more than actual because of blocked seats that come in tracking and adult prices.

 

Actual Previews

MTC 1 - 2.95 (I took 3.1)
MTC 2 - 1.75 (I took 1.85)
MTC 3 - 1.9 (I took 2 based on MTC 1)
 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 11/4/2021 at 9:26 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-13	Ghostbusters (Wed)	Jacksonville	2	2	558	0	0	0.00%
	Ghostbusters (Wed) Total		2	2	558	0	0	0.00%
T-14	Ghostbusters	Jacksonville	7	58	9,824	79	23	0.80%
		Phoenix	6	27	4,640	142	10	3.06%
		Raleigh	7	28	4,025	120	17	2.98%
	Ghostbusters Total		20	113	18,489	341	50	1.84%

 

Ghostbusters comps

TSS - 1.38x (5.66m)

NTTD - .886x (4.61m)

Dune - .812x (4.14m)

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales*	% Sold
T-11	Ghostbusters (Wed)	Jacksonville	2	2	558	2	2	0.36%
T-12	Ghostbusters	Jacksonville	7	58	9,824	106	27	1.08%
		Phoenix	6	27	4,640	169	27	3.64%
		Raleigh	8	29	4,104	140	20	3.41%
	Ghostbusters Total		21	114	18,568	415	74	2.24%

 

*New sales since Thursday morning

 

Don't have Dune or NTTD comps for T-12, but TSS went up a little to 1.48 (6.077m)

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Got the actual data for previews. Problem was that MTC1 was almost 100% coverage now. Not that we are covering 100% theater but since we use adult prices for all, they are overpricing the actual ATP.

 

MTC2 is more than actual because of blocked seats that come in tracking and adult prices.

 

Actual Previews

MTC 1 - 2.95 (I took 3.1)
MTC 2 - 1.75 (I took 1.85)
MTC 3 - 1.9 (I took 2 based on MTC 1)
 

I assume 100% of tickets are adults in my $ projection. So its possible for my number to be ahead. That said I look for blocked seats. Unless MTC2 has changed how they mark them, I definitely do no ignore them. Anyway I am not sure if there are any markets where seats are blocked. Even NY and CA allow 100% capacity. 

 

Anyway Morning Update

 

Eternals Saturday morning update

MTC1 - 206859/1070362 2991920.79 5945 shows

MTC2 - 140471/793104 1610913.00 5166 shows

 

Thinking 400/320K finish. Let us see how the day goes. 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

That said I look for blocked seats. Unless MTC2 has changed how they mark them, I definitely do no ignore them.

Not that blocked. Blocked as in the seat are blocked by cinema from selling them online. @Menor and I worked those around 0.7x per show, could be up or down depending on how many shows are having them.

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I assume 100% of tickets are adults in my $ projection. So its possible for my number to be ahead. That said I look for blocked seats. Unless MTC2 has changed how they mark them, I definitely do no ignore them. Anyway I am not sure if there are any markets where seats are blocked. Even NY and CA allow 100% capacity. 

 

Anyway Morning Update

 

Eternals Saturday morning update

MTC1 - 206859/1070362 2991920.79 5945 shows

MTC2 - 140471/793104 1610913.00 5166 shows

 

Thinking 400/320K finish. Let us see how the day goes. 

 

 

26 ?

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

26 ?

I was thinking 25 yesterday night. Let us check around 2PM timeframe when I updated for SC. its walkups are lot weaker than SC(Duh). 

 

My updates for SC on its opening saturday. FYI SC grossed 23.19m. So Eternals need to go lot higher than my projection this morning. Its too early to guess how the walkups will be. 2PM update will give us a better picture. 

 

On 9/4/2021 at 2:05 PM, keysersoze123 said:

At 2PM PST Sat

Shang Chi Saturday

MTC1 - 278428/1153858 3622788.86 6572 shows

MTC2 - 199548/976831 2137141.70 6783 shows

 

 

On 9/4/2021 at 8:29 PM, keysersoze123 said:

SC Saturday

MTC1  - 398521/1156639 5307132.39 6613 shows

MTC2 - 305303/992089 3443140.57 6834 shows

 

 

[keysersoze123]

Eternals Saturday Mid day Update

MTC1 - 307252/1072183 4303941.92 5990 shows

MTC2 - 221616/804908 2476101.28 5220 shows

 

Pace is still below SC. I am thinking 24-25m saturday for now. Let us see where it ends up this evening.

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Eternals Saturday Mid day Update

MTC1 - 307252/1072183 4303941.92 5990 shows

MTC2 - 221616/804908 2476101.28 5220 shows

 

Pace is still below SC. I am thinking 24-25m saturday for now. Let us see where it ends up this evening.

 

Don't forget - compared to Black Widow, Shang Chi did very well late night...I'm not sure Eternals is or will...

Edited November 6, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[Coldbird]

75m is dead with this numbers, even with 25m it would need an sub 25% drop to Sunday.

[keysersoze123]

Eternals Saturday Final

MTC1 - 406782/1073590 5757132.22 6011 shows

MTC2 - 310906/815119 3560023.31 5245 shows

 

Again meh walkups relative to SC. Since SC was stronger in Canada and its possible more child tickets would be sold for this than SC(lower COVID levels), I am not expecting Eternals saturday to be that much more than SC saturday. Say 23.3m saturday. 

 

This is gonna be quite fronloaded and I am sure this wont beat F9. 

 

Comps with SC.

 

On 9/4/2021 at 8:29 PM, keysersoze123 said:

SC Saturday

MTC1  - 398521/1156639 5307132.39 6613 shows

MTC2 - 305303/992089 3443140.57 6834 shows

 

Eternals Sunday PS

MTC1 - 112910/897173 1620659.08 4850 shows

MTC2 - 72032/692166 775471.99 4573 shows

 

Based on walkups seen so far, I am expecting "normal" hold for a movie in fall. 70m OW looks tough IMO though studio could estimate that. 

 

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric loves Ajak said:

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	66	461	14545	3.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 41

 

Comp

1.676x of The Suicide Squad T-13 (6.87M)

0.490x of Shang-Chi T-13 (4.31M)

0.683x of Venom 2 T-13 (7.92M)

0.788x of No Time to Die T-13 (4.96M)

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	66	484	14545	3.33%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 23

 

Comp

1.624x of The Suicide Squad T-12 (6.66M)

0.495x of Shang-Chi T-12 (4.35M)

0.685x of Venom 2 T-12 (7.94M)

0.769x of No Time to Die T-12 (4.85M)

[Eric Duncan]

On 11/5/2021 at 11:56 PM, Eric loves Ajak said:

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-47 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	47	57	9176	0.62%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 21

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-46 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	49	87	9354	0.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 30

[charlie Jatinder]

These @keysersoze123  numbers looks like $24-24.25M to me, that looked sorta possible in my last check, though will get another look in some time.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	108	16331	16695	364	2.18%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

49

 

T-13 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
TSS	107.69		14	338		0/81	13614/13952	2.42%		4.42m
SC	34.21		97	1064		0/101	15938/17002	6.26%		3.01m
V2	37.53		92	970		0/155	24891/25861	3.75%		4.35m
NTTD	46.67		57	780		0/135	20479/21259	3.67%		2.89m

PRE-SALE NOTE: The Suicide Squad's and Let There Be Carnage's tickets have been on sale for five more days than Ghostbusters: Afterlife's tickets have been on sale, while No Time to Die's tickets have been on sale for three more days.

 

T-13 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	35.81		48	983		0/79	11432/12415	7.92%		2.66m
GA (adj)	---		49	352		0/94	14183/14535	2.42%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: GA (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: F9's tickets have been on sale for six more days than Ghostbusters: Afterlife's tickets have been on sale.

 

==

 

Not gonna show it from the comps (which predictably got slaughtered in the shift to T-x), but it was aksually a pretty good day locally with sales up and down the region.  Was another spurt at one of the theaters, but unlike last night was more spread out.

 

Now let's see how long it takes for the comps to recover and make up for the disparate length in pre-sale windows (if they do).

 

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	108	16294	16695	401	2.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

37

 

T-12 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
TSS	114.25		13	351		0/81	13601/13952	2.52%		4.68m
SC	34.90		85	1149		0/101	15853/17002	6.76%		3.07m
V2	37.76		92	1062		0/155	24799/25861	4.11%		4.38m
NTTD	49.38		32	812		0/135	20447/21259	3.82%		3.06m

PRE-SALE NOTE: The Suicide Squad's and Let There Be Carnage's tickets have been on sale for five more days than Ghostbusters: Afterlife's tickets have been on sale, while No Time to Die's tickets have been on sale for three more days.

 

T-12 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	37.68		38	1021		0/79	11394/12415	8.22%		2.80m
GA (adj)	---		35	387		0/94	14148/14535	2.66%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: GA (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: F9's tickets have been on sale for six more days than Ghostbusters: Afterlife's tickets have been on sale.

 

Regal:       98/5966 [1.64% sold] [+10 tickets]

Matinee:   29/1984 [1.46% | 7.23% of all tickets sold]