The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

Sure, perhaps there are some reasons BUT it would be odd (IMO) if 4 Marvel movies comps in the last 6 months all pointed to a 2% difference and it DIDN'T hit right around there. At most I would take the average and do +/- 5%. 

Would not be especially strange for a 50M 3PM with massive effective sellouts to have markedly different regional ratio than a handful of piddling 8-13M guys.

[infamous5445]

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

T-6 Days Nationwide Estimates

 

THU - $26.75M

FRI - $20.75M

SAT - $13.75M

Rest - $10.75M

 

Total - ~$72M Approx

 

At same time

 

TROS was ~$68M

Endgame was ~$115-120M

TFA was ~$90M

TLJ was ~$80M

So it's only gonna make a TROS opening weekend, what a flop

[charlie Jatinder]

38 minutes ago, Menor said:

Well not really. Let's say that a really big movie is able to kickstart some regions that have been performing poorly this year. Then it will overperform that comp. I don't know if this will actually happen but wouldn't be surprised.

You are right. Regional comps are supposed to work in tiers of films. Say a $10M is likely to overindex in Sacramento than a $50M. TRoS would have been best comp ideally but there are some markets missing still, so will probably be off.

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, infamous5445 said:

So it's only gonna make a TROS opening weekend, what a flop

 

[XXR vs XXR]

9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

You are right. Regional comps are supposed to work in tiers of films. Say a $10M is likely to overindex in Sacramento than a $50M. TRoS would have been best comp ideally but there are some markets missing still, so will probably be off.

 

NWH had a nice jump compared to EG/TROS in Porthos last update. Barring poor critics reception possibly depressing numbers, I think it can get to 92-94% EG and 125-130% TROS for his comp.

I'd still go with the 4 Marvel films this year and just estimate for over indexing of the smaller films (though I don't believe there will be much, as Menor said this film could easily jumpstart weaker areas of the country vs those smaller films, so it would bring down regional over indexing if true.)

 

Edited December 11, 2021 by Multiverse of XXR

[charlie Jatinder]

Sacramento

 

Note: Use it for trend guide only as these aren't numbers from same set of cinemas.

AIW and AEG had upturn a day and two ago respectively and then dropped a bit for steady next couple of days. 

 

Or was 11th day was surge for NWH and then steady run for few days to eventually big surge like EG? Will know tomorrow.

[Landon1195]

So $200M OW is a lock at this point?

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Sacramento

 

Note: Use it for trend guide only as these aren't numbers from same set of cinemas.

AIW and AEG had upturn a day and two ago respectively and then dropped a bit for steady next couple of days. 

 

Or was 11th day was surge for NWH and then steady run for few days to eventually big surge like EG? Will know tomorrow.

Yesterday was a real uptick, probably caused by the release of those marketing clips. We saw jumps in Denver, Megaplex, Drafthouse, and Sacramento. Actually looks like Tuesday is when TROS stalled out. 

Edited December 11, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, Menor said:

Actually looks like Tuesday is when TROS stalled out. 

I think Wednesday did fine, overperforming Infinity War. Wonder if @Porthos called it early on Thursday, considering he would be pumped to go to showing and probably went in early.

Edited December 11, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[XXR vs XXR]

9 minutes ago, Landon1195 said:

So $200M OW is a lock at this point?

 

IMO, yes. It would take a very unusual pattern to drop below $200M at this point. Previews should be at least $45M. 

So even with a really weak (especially for the MCU) +20% Friday, then +5 Saturday, then -20% Sunday; we still get to $201M. 

 

I'm thinking it'll do at least $220M, with room to run up to $260M. 

 

 

[Landon1195]

Do you think a $100M opening day will happen?

[XXR vs XXR]

6 minutes ago, Landon1195 said:

Do you think a $100M opening day will happen?

 

Yes. I think it'll be around $110M (+/- 3%). 

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1 Hr	Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	76	12,095	2,333	555	19.29%
		Phoenix	7	77	10,692	1,881	270	17.59%
		Raleigh	8	74	8,303	3,148	746	37.91%
	Black Widow Total		21	227	31,090	7,362	1,571	23.68%
T-1 Hr	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	72	10,311	1,811	526	17.56%
		Phoenix	7	59	8,999	1,848	320	20.54%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,098	1,713	380	41.80%
	Eternals Total		21	168	23,408	5,372	1,226	22.95%
T-1 Hr	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	60	8,619	1,423	493	16.51%
		Phoenix	7	51	7,193	1,349	262	18.75%
		Raleigh	8	40	4,505	1,327	332	29.46%
	Shang-Chi Total		21	151	20,317	4,099	1,087	20.18%
T-6	Spider-Man	Jacksonville	7	158	22,970	6,592	266	28.70%
		Phoenix	7	162	21,103	8,984	324	42.57%
		Raleigh	8	94	10,736	5,927	231	55.21%
	Spider-Man Total		22	414	54,809	21,503	821	39.23%

 

Net 1 less show than yesterday;  three of the new shows in the last update have been removed and a couple were added in other theaters.  Biggest sales day since last Friday's update, although I got started late today.  That's normal for Friday updates though

 

T-6 increase % comps

 

Spider - 3.97%

BW - 6.53%

SC - 11.12%

Eternals - 6.41%

Venom 2 - 11.89%

 

Quick check-in on sales comps...

 

BW  - 7.12x (94.05m)

SC -  16.55x (145.67m)

Eternals - 9.73x (92.47m)

Venom 2 - 22.4x (259.83m)

 

Obviously the growth rate will remain much much lower than all of these, but this gives you an idea just how far ahead it is with just a week left.  Here's where the comps would be if it had no more presales until an hour before shows began...

 

BW  - 2.92x (38.55m)

SC -  5.246x (46.16m)

Eternals - 4x (38.03m)

 

Total sales

 

Spider-Man - $285,680 (13.29 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

Splits

 

 

Movie	Mat	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	N	18,734	87.12%	$255,565.75	13.64
	Y	2,769	12.88%	$30,115.02	10.88

 

 

Movie	Format	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	PLF	7,621	35.44%	$123,292.41	16.18
	Standard	13,882	64.56%	$162,388.36	11.70

 

 

Movie	Chain	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	AMC	12,742	59.26%	$163,980.17	12.87
	Cinemark	5,460	25.39%	$78,519.48	14.38
	CMX	28	0.13%	$419.72	14.99
	Regal	2,875	13.37%	$38,504.50	13.39
	RoadHouse	201	0.93%	$2,139.15	10.64
	Sun-Ray	197	0.92%	$2,117.75	10.75

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1 Hr	Black Widow	Jacksonville	6	76	12,095	2,333	555	19.29%
		Phoenix	7	77	10,692	1,881	270	17.59%
		Raleigh	8	74	8,303	3,148	746	37.91%
	Black Widow Total		21	227	31,090	7,362	1,571	23.68%
T-1 Hr	Eternals	Jacksonville	6	72	10,311	1,811	526	17.56%
		Phoenix	7	59	8,999	1,848	320	20.54%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,098	1,713	380	41.80%
	Eternals Total		21	168	23,408	5,372	1,226	22.95%
T-1 Hr	Shang-Chi	Jacksonville	6	60	8,619	1,423	493	16.51%
		Phoenix	7	51	7,193	1,349	262	18.75%
		Raleigh	8	40	4,505	1,327	332	29.46%
	Shang-Chi Total		21	151	20,317	4,099	1,087	20.18%
T-5	Spider-Man	Jacksonville	7	158	22,970	6,794	202	29.58%
		Phoenix	7	162	21,103	9,282	298	43.98%
		Raleigh	8	97	10,939	6,196	269	56.64%
	Spider-Man Total		22	417	55,012	22,272	769	40.49%

 

T-5 increase % comps

 

Spider - 3.58%

BW - 5.8%

SC - 10.78%

Eternals - 4.12%

 

Quick check-in on sales comps...

 

BW  - 6.97x (92.07m)

SC -  15.48x (136.2m)

Eternals - 9.68x (91.99m)

 

Obviously the growth rate will remain much much lower than all of these, but this gives you an idea just how far ahead it is with just a week left.  Here's where the comps would be if it had no more presales until an hour before shows began...

 

BW  - 3.025x (39.93m)

SC -  5.43x (47.81m)

Eternals - 4.15x (39.39m)

 

Total sales

 

Spider-Man - $295,141 (13.29 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

Splits

 

Movie	Mat	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	N	19,395	87.10%	$263,940.96	13.61
	Y	2,872	12.90%	$31,138.21	10.84

 

Movie	Format	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	PLF	7,757	34.84%	$125,502.88	16.18
	Standard	14,510	65.16%	$169,576.29	11.69

 

Movie	Chain	Sold	%	Sales	ATP
Spider-Man	AMC	13,087	58.77%	$168,044.14	12.84
	Cinemark	5,557	24.96%	$79,899.11	14.38
	CMX	26	0.12%	$389.74	14.99
	Regal	3,133	14.07%	$41,779.78	13.34
	RoadHouse	251	1.13%	$2,676.65	10.66
	Sun-Ray	213	0.96%	$2,289.75	10.75

[Landon1195]

It's still crazy that it's most likely to become the highest opening weekend of the pandemic in just it's opening day. And it's a possibility it could become the highest grossing movie domestically of the pandemic in just it's opening weekend. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 12/9/2021 at 9:53 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-14	Matrix 4 (Wed)	Jacksonville	6	33	5,931	262	31	4.42%
		Phoenix	6	18	2,924	293	22	10.02%
		Raleigh	8	28	3,453	364	33	10.54%
	Matrix 4 (Wed) Total		19	79	12,308	919	86	7.47%

 

Matrix comps

 

TSS - 3.72x (15.25m)

NTTD - 2.39x (12.41m)

Dune - 2.19x (11.16m)

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-12	Matrix 4 (Wed)	Jacksonville	6	33	5,931	322	60	5.43%
		Phoenix	6	18	2,924	354	61	12.11%
		Raleigh	8	28	3,453	430	66	12.45%
	Matrix 4 (Wed) Total		19	79	12,308	1,106	187	8.99%

 

*New sales are since Thursday morning

 

T-12 Matrix comps

 

TSS - 3.95x (16.2m)

Shang-Chi - 1.46x (12.82m)

 

Missed NTTD and Dune T-12 update

[Torontofan]

2 minutes ago, Landon1195 said:

It's still crazy that it's most likely to become the highest opening weekend of the pandemic in just it's opening day. And it's a possibility it could become the highest grossing movie domestically of the pandemic in just it's opening weekend. 

Yeah for sure, a lot of people who have not seen a movie in theaters in 2 years are gonna come out for this one. 

[Eric Duncan]

On 12/10/2021 at 12:41 AM, Eric Feels Pretty said:

Spider-Man: No Way Home Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	6	205	18,361	37,701	48.70%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 517

 

Comp

2.418x of Black Widow's Final Count (31.92M)

3.505x of Venom 2's Final Count (40.66M)

 

Adjusted Comp

1.269x of Star Wars: TROS T-7 (50.76M)

Spider-Man: No Way Home Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	11	221	19,007	39,892	47.65%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 16

Total Seats Added Today: 2,191

Total Sellouts Added Today: 5

Total Seats Sold Today: 646

 

Comp

2.503x of Black Widow's Final Count (33.04M)

3.629x of Venom 2's Final Count (42.09M)

 

Adjusted Comp

1.285x of Star Wars: TROS T-6 (51.39M)

[Eric Duncan]

On 12/10/2021 at 12:46 AM, Eric Feels Pretty said:

The Matrix: Resurrections Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	905	9574	9.45%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 96

 

Comp

0.938x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-13 (9.1M)

3.291x of The Suicide Squad T-13 (13.49M)

1.343x of Dune T-13 (6.85M)

The Matrix: Resurrections Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	962	9574	10.05%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 57

 

Comp

0.970x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-12 (9.41M)

3.228x of The Suicide Squad T-12 (13.23M)

1.344x of Dune T-12 (6.85M)

[Eric Duncan]

On 12/10/2021 at 12:50 AM, Eric Feels Pretty said:

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	61	1626	10811	15.04%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 40

 

Total Seats WITHOUT EARLY ACCESS: 218

 

Comp (WITHOUT Early Access)

4.739x of Jungle Cruise T-13 (12.8M)

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	61	1660	10811	15.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 34

 

Total Seats WITHOUT EARLY ACCESS: 252

 

Comp (WITHOUT Early Access)

5.143x of Jungle Cruise T-12 (13.88M)

[Torontofan]

2 hours ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

 

It likely be making over 20 million dollars more on sat then  star wars 9.