The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[filmlover]

Licorice Pizza has cut its Christmas Day theater count down from 2,000 to 800 or less.

 

Licorice Pizza Slashes Xmas Dates — Smart Strategy That Hurts Indies | IndieWire

[Porthos]

Not gonna go back and pull the quotes for the discussion, but I entirely agree with @Menor that Sacto could be massively underindexing relative to prior Marvel films locally.  Seeing @katnisscinnaplex's numbers have been giving me enough pause to want to pull an old card out of my deck when it comes to my final set of numbers.  Plus this is the biggest film since TROS*, so we just haven't had a film this gigantic in nearly two years.  Entirely possible that a different set of rules apply to it versus , oh let's call them Tier Three Movies.

* Yes, yes, I KNOW.  But saying it's the biggest film since Endgame, while technically accurate, really doesn't convey what I'm trying to get at. 

 

Probably gonna do a "World One" and "World Two" comp like I did for EG back in the day where I have one set of comps for one national environment presumption (every last movie in 2021) and a different comp for a different national environment (theaters are saying "damn the staffing shortages torpedoes, full sets of NWH full speed ahead!").

 

And I'll then give both comps to give something of a guide/ceiling-floor.

 

Which "World" would I use for my 'actual' comp/call?

 

 

Spoiler

something something midpoint of the two 'geomean for life' something something. 

 

@Product Driven Legion

 

Edited December 11, 2021 by Porthos

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think Wednesday did fine, overperforming Infinity War. Wonder if @Porthos called it early on Thursday, considering he would be pumped to go to showing and probably went in early.

 

I'd have to check to make sure, but I believe I took that sample about 45-60 minutes sooner than I normally would have.

 

*checks*

 

Yeah, about 60 minutes sooner than I would have normally:

 

 

Didn't have time to make any sort of commentary, but the EG comp was actually over a bit (41.8 vs 40) while everything else was under a bit.  Gave a pseudo-call of 38.5m-ish versus the actual of 40m.  If I tracked one more hour of sales, probably would have had 39m or so.

 

 

See the linked post for the full details.

Edited December 11, 2021 by Porthos

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I'd have to check to make sure, but I believe I took that sample about 45-60 minutes sooner than I normally would have.

 

*checks*

 

Yeah, about 60 minutes sooner than I would have normally:

 

 

Didn't have time to make any sort of commentary, but the EG comp was actually under a bit (41.8 vs 40) while everything else was under a bit.  Gave a pseudo -call of 38.5m-ish versus the actual of 40m.  I fi tracked one more hour of sales, probably would have had 39m-39.5m or so.

 

 

See the linked post for the full details.

 

For this one, will you do your final track around 30-60 minutes before first showing, or wait until later to account for the early start time?

I'm curious how much that 3PM start is going to affect prognostication (or commentary) on Thursday.

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think Wednesday did fine, overperforming Infinity War. Wonder if @Porthos called it early on Thursday, considering he would be pumped to go to showing and probably went in early.

True. Was looking at the Endgame comp, but seems like Endgame just had a very good late surge. 

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

 

For this one, will you do your final track around 30-60 minutes before first showing, or wait until later to account for the early start time?

I'm curious how much that 3PM start is going to affect prognostication (or commentary) on Thursday.

 

Still up in the air.  Was planning on doing a 3:45-4:30 sample while grabbing the counts for 3pm’ers which is the window  I’ve been doing for recent 4pm start times.

 

There are soooooooo many showtimes now that I’ll probably attempt a 3:30-4:30 sample while still getting all of the earliest shows.  Sadly, for me at least, thanks to all the times I will have to jump around my normal way of tracking plus all the elfin’ showtimes, it’ll probably be a 3:15-4:30 sample while making sure to get absolute earliest ones.

 

What it almost certainly won’t be is a 2:30-3:30 sample.  At worst, I might do a 3:00 to 4:10-ish sample as “good enough”.  This is where sellouts help massively, as it reduces the sheer level of grunt work for this type of movie.  Playing it by ear, as normal for me.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 major factors I am skeptical are, in recent times;

 

1. We have Regal underperforming a lot from its pre-covid standards. That is probably from shift of audience to Cinemark or AMC as Regal was closed till mid 2021.

2. The cinemas outside top 10 circuits are contributing way lower, one reason is most of them just closed off. There are 600 cinemas that are still closed till this week. Around 40 of them are AMC, 20 Cinemarks, 25 Regals, 15 Mega cinemas of Pacific. That leaves around 450+ smaller cinemas close.

 

Now will NWH get Regal back to its normal level. Will some how of regional underperformance we are seeing with smaller chains change. 

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

2. The cinemas outside top 10 circuits are contributing way lower, one reason is most of them just closed off. There are 600 cinemas that are still closed till this week. Around 40 of them are AMC, 20 Cinemarks, 25 Regals, 15 Mega cinemas of Pacific. That leaves around 450+ smaller cinemas close.

 

How much would those closed cinemas normally contribute (estimate, percentage) to a big performer?

[Torontofan]

41 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

2 major factors I am skeptical are, in recent times;

 

1. We have Regal underperforming a lot from its pre-covid standards. That is probably from shift of audience to Cinemark or AMC as Regal was closed till mid 2021.

2. The cinemas outside top 10 circuits are contributing way lower, one reason is most of them just closed off. There are 600 cinemas that are still closed till this week. Around 40 of them are AMC, 20 Cinemarks, 25 Regals, 15 Mega cinemas of Pacific. That leaves around 450+ smaller cinemas close.

 

Now will NWH get Regal back to its normal level. Will some how of regional underperformance we are seeing with smaller chains change. 

Hi new member, but spiderman will also get a lot of people who not been in theater for 2 years (myself and many people I know not been to theaters since precovid). I think that also makes things a bit unpredictable

[ZackM]

28 minutes ago, Torontofan said:

Hi new member, but spiderman will also get a lot of people who not been in theater for 2 years (myself and many people I know not been to theaters since precovid). I think that also makes things a bit unpredictable

Did you already buy your tickets?

[Torontofan]

2 hours ago, ZackM said:

Did you already buy your tickets?

Not yet will buy later as I am gonna go during the weekdays. 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2452

3795

64.61%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2264

4232

53.50%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
14853	399	36575	40.61%	15	239

 

Showings added: 3

Seats added: 852

 

AMCs sold	7756
Cinemarks sold	2886
Regals sold	2674
Harkins sold	1537

 

Eternals final comp: 31.69M

Shang-Chi final comp: 32.39M

Black Widow final comp: 30.82M

Adjusted TRoS final comp: 35.25M

 

Adjusted T-6 TRoS comp: 47.90M

 

Daily pace comparisons:

  Reveal hidden contents

NWH T-6: +399, +2.69%

5.47x Eternals T-6 (+73, +4.09%)

3.02x Shang-Chi T-6 (+132, +10.95%)

3.41x Black Widow T-6 (+117, +4.96%)

 

Adjusted NWH T-6(12569): +306, +2.50%

1.19x TRoS T-6 (+257, +2.51%)

 

No Way Home Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2498

3795

65.82%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2313

4317

53.58%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
15266	413	36660	41.64%	15	240

 

Showings added: 1

Seats added: 85

 

AMCs sold	7890
Cinemarks sold	2958
Regals sold	2800
Harkins sold	1618

 

Eternals final comp: 32.58M

Shang-Chi final comp: 33.29M

Black Widow final comp: 31.67M
Adjusted TRoS final comp: 36.10M

 

Adjusted T-5 TRoS comp: 47.87M

 

Daily pace comparisons:

Spoiler

NWH T-5: +413, +2.78%

3.93x Eternals T-5 (+105, +5.65%)

4.54x Shang-Chi T-5 (+91, +6.80%)

2.42x Black Widow T-5 (+171, +6.90%)

 

Adjusted NWH T-5(12875): +306, +2.43%

1.16x TRoS T-5 (+263, +2.51%)

 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Megaplex

 

T-6 days Thursday(189 showings): 20728(+586)/42435(+841) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 32.11M

Black Widow final comp: 33.05M

 

Daily pace comparison:

  Reveal hidden contents

NWH T-6: +586, +2.91%

5.05x NTTD T-6 (+116, +9.00%)

3.07x Black Widow T-6 (+191, +6.73%)

 

T-7 days Friday(192 showings): 15749(+579)/52681(+1508) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 36.29M

Black Widow final comp: 44.60M

 

Daily pace comparison: 

  Reveal hidden contents

NWH T-7: +579, +3.82%

3.53x NTTD T-7 (+164, +11.68%)

3.86x Black Widow T-7 (+150, +6.79%)

 

T-8 days Saturday(198 showings): 9509(+611)/51281(+827) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 26.73M

 

T-9 days Sunday(153 showings): 2272(+142)/46322 in 15 theaters

No Way Home Megaplex

 

T-5 days Thursday(195 showings): 21220(+492)/43677(+1242) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 32.87M

Black Widow final comp: 33.83M

 

Daily pace comparison:

Spoiler

NWH T-5: +492, +2.37%

5.59x NTTD T-5 (+88, +6.26%)

2.95x Black Widow T-5 (+167, +5.51%)

 

T-6 days Friday(195 showings): 16372(+623)/53130(+449) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 37.73M

Black Widow final comp: 46.36M

 

Daily pace comparison:

Spoiler

NWH T-6: +623, +3.96%

5.19x NTTD T-6 (+120, +7.65%)

2.45x Black Widow T-6 (+254, +10.77%)

 

T-7 days Saturday(198 showings): 10181(+672)/51281 in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 28.62M

 

T-8 days Sunday(153 showings): 2400(+128)/46322 in 15 theaters

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-6 days Thursday(282 showings): 26918(+503, +1.90%)/36004(+1155)

 

Eternals final comp: 25.46M

 

Daily pace comparison: 2.15x Eternals T-6 (+234, +4.26%)

 

T-7 days Friday(328 showings): 24829(+932, +3.90%)/43120(+568)

 

Eternals final comp: 40.41M

 

Daily pace comparison: 2.67x Eternals T-7 (+349, +6.90%)

 

T-8 days Saturday(360 showings): 24786(+1223, +5.19%)/47804(+701)

 

Eternals final comp: 40.07M

 

Daily pace comparison: 5.71x Eternals T-8 (+214, +4.21%)

 

T-9 days Sunday(300 showings): 13494(+924, +7.35%)/40028(+703)

 

Daily pace comparison: 6.16x Eternals T-9 (+150, +5.09%)

No Way Home Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-5 days Thursday(282 showings): 27389(+471, +1.75%)/36004

 

Eternals final comp: 25.91M

 

Daily pace comparison: 2.56x Eternals T-5 (+184, +3.22%)

 

T-6 days Friday(328 showings): 25570(+741, +2.98%)/43120

 

Eternals final comp: 41.62M

 

Daily pace comparison: 3.07x Eternals T-6 (+241, +4.46%)

 

T-7 days Saturday(360 showings): 25728(+942, +3.80%)/47804

 

Eternals final comp: 41.60M

 

Daily pace comparison: 2.87x Eternals T-7 (+328, +6.19%)

 

T-8 days Sunday(300 showings): 14328(+834, +6.18%)/40028

 

Daily pace comparison: 5.87x Eternals T-8 (+142, +4.59%)

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2498

3795

65.82%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2313

4317

53.58%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
15266	413	36660	41.64%	15	240

 

Showings added: 1

Seats added: 85

 

AMCs sold	7890
Cinemarks sold	2958
Regals sold	2800
Harkins sold	1618

 

Eternals final comp: 32.58M

Shang-Chi final comp: 33.29M

Black Widow final comp: 31.67M
Adjusted TRoS final comp: 36.10M

 

Adjusted T-5 TRoS comp: 47.87M

 

Daily pace comparisons:

  Reveal hidden contents

NWH T-5: +413, +2.78%

3.93x Eternals T-5 (+105, +5.65%)

4.54x Shang-Chi T-5 (+91, +6.80%)

2.42x Black Widow T-5 (+171, +6.90%)

 

Adjusted NWH T-5(12875): +306, +2.43%

1.16x TRoS T-5 (+263, +2.51%)

 

 

I'm curious.  Anything close to a sellout in your neck of the woods?

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Matrix Resurrections Wednesday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

223

794

28.09%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

143

1036

13.80%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
901	96	10302	8.75%	15	64

 

AMCs sold	590
Cinemarks sold	87
Regals sold	149
Harkins sold	75

 

96.78% of Dune T-12. Not gonna put the actual value of the comp since it's previews vs OD, but I think it'll be a decent indicator of how it's doing for now

Matrix Resurrections Wednesday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

242

794

30.48%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

156

1036

15.06%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1006	105	10302	9.77%	15	64

 

AMCs sold	655
Cinemarks sold	118
Regals sold	153
Harkins sold	80

 

102.24% of Dune T-11

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Matrix Resurrections Megaplex

 

T-12 days Wednesday(49 showings): 580(+72)/10551(+1645) in 12 theaters

 

T-13 days Thursday(45 showings): 198(+21)/9939(+1645) in 11 theaters

 

T-14 days Friday(26 showings): 114(+20)/5436 in 9 theaters

 

T-15 days Saturday(39 showings): 126(+32)/8861(+832) in 9 theaters

 

T-16 days Sunday(25 showings): 27(+4)/4882 in 6 theaters

Matrix Resurrections Megaplex

 

T-11 days Wednesday(55 showings): 620(+40)/12049(+1498) in 13 theaters

 

T-12 days Thursday(51 showings): 228(+30)/11437(+1498) in 12 theaters

 

T-13 days Friday(26 showings): 129(+15)/5436 in 9 theaters

 

T-14 days Saturday(39 showings): 158(+32)/8861 in 9 theaters

 

T-15 days Sunday(25 showings): 34(+7)/4882 in 6 theaters

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Matrix Resurrections Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-12 days Wednesday(90 showings): 3784(+252)/11765

 

T-13 days Thursday(87 showings): 2132(+231)/10840

 

T-14 days Friday(53 showings): 612(+69)/6175

 

T-15 days Saturday(70 showings): 972(+118)/7840

 

T-16 days Sunday(58 showings): 508(+72)/6744

Matrix Resurrections Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-11 days Wednesday(90 showings): 4032(+248)/11765

 

T-12 days Thursday(87 showings): 2323(+191)/10840

 

T-13 days Friday(53 showings): 648(+36)/6175

 

T-14 days Saturday(70 showings): 1073(+101)/7840

 

T-15 days Sunday(58 showings): 604(+96)/6744

[Inceptionzq]

42 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I'm curious.  Anything close to a sellout in your neck of the woods?

There are a decent amount of 90%+ sold, a couple 95%+ sold. There is one sellout not including wheelchair seats, but it’s a 36 seater

Edited December 12, 2021 by Inceptionzq

[infamous5445]

So what's gonna be day when Spider-Man beats the biggest domestic opening weekend of 2021 on previews alone lol?

Edited December 12, 2021 by infamous5445