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grim22

The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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raegr Box Office Gold

raegr

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

4m Thursday previews....talk of a "flop" is absurd

Disappointing considering the buzz and the reception but WB still owns October records!

 

In fact...WB owns July (HP), August (SS), September (It), October (Gravity), November (very likely Justice League)

 

Eat crow @WeneedtotalkaboutKevin

 

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Rumpot Box Office Gold

Rumpot

Posted
Posted
Just now, raegr said:

Disappointing considering the buzz and the reception but WB still owns October records!

 

In fact...WB owns July (HP), August (SS), September (It), October (Gravity), November (very likely Justice League)

 

Eat crow @WeneedtotalkaboutKevin

 

I'm on the other end of the low previews to weekend multiple crowd.  I think it will be high due to the length of the movie really blunting the 2nd showing numbers last night.  Very few would watch a cerebral 3hr movie at 11pm Thursday...  

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

I'm on the other end of the low previews to weekend multiple crowd.  I think it will be high due to the length of the movie really blunting the 2nd showing numbers last night.  Very few would watch a cerebral 3hr movie at 11pm Thursday...  

But are they gonna do it on Fri/Sat/Sun?  Or go to matinees Friday?  If the movie can only sell out the 6-8pm slots, it's not like theaters are giving it 12 showings at those times...

 

And "cerebral" and "looong" and "sequel" are not words that normally brings in the GA fan not already invested...so, I wouldn't get my hopes too high on a huge multiplier...I'm still seeing this playing like a better reviewed Alien Covenant and 8.5x-10.5x of that $4M brings the movie to $34M-$42M...I'd think the $42M more likely b/c fans aren't nearly as mixed or unhappy and critics were happier, but I don't think this gets non-sequel like weekend sci-fi multipliers...

 

Maybe it does...again, I haven't see #1, so I'm probably not the best estimator...but...

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MCKillswitch123 Summer Tentpole

MCKillswitch123

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, raegr said:

Disappointing considering the buzz and the reception but WB still owns October records!

 

In fact...WB owns July (HP), August (SS), September (It), October (Gravity), November (very likely Justice League)

 

Eat crow @WeneedtotalkaboutKevin

 

I feel like you wrote that 2nd sentence just to mention how confident you are in Justice League again :ph34r:

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raegr Box Office Gold

raegr

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I feel like you wrote that 2nd sentence just to mention how confident you are in Justice League again :ph34r:

AH YOU CAUGHT ME!

 

/seriously

 

I stand by me saying that WB is killing it. My point was to say that even if BR doesn't break the OW record of October, WB will still likely own 5 OW records in a row by the end of the year which is phenomenal!

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Rumpot Box Office Gold

Rumpot

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

But are they gonna do it on Fri/Sat/Sun?  Or go to matinees Friday?  If the movie can only sell out the 6-8pm slots, it's not like theaters are giving it 12 showings at those times...

 

And "cerebral" and "looong" and "sequel" are not words that normally brings in the GA fan not already invested...so, I wouldn't get my hopes too high on a huge multiplier...I'm still seeing this playing like a better reviewed Alien Covenant and 8.5x-10.5x of that $4M brings the movie to $34M-$42M...I'd think the $42M more likely b/c fans aren't nearly as mixed or unhappy and critics were happier, but I don't think this gets non-sequel like weekend sci-fi multipliers...

 

Maybe it does...again, I haven't see #1, so I'm probably not the best estimator...but...

I do agree with your reasoning.  I guess we'll see which "line of reasoning" plays out in the end because to me both make sense...and which one the masses of moviegoers veer towards is what keeps it interesting

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Barnack Global Phenomenon

Barnack

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, Brainbug said:

We shoudnt expect Blade Runner to enjoy big walkups or? Doesnt (nerdy) Sci-Fi tend to be presales-heavy?

Apparently:

http://deadline.com/2017/10/ryan-gosling-blade-runner-2049-harrison-ford-opening-weekend-box-office-1202183063/

, while 16% bought their tickets in advance over the last week.

 

I would imagine that Thursday night is the most heavy in pre-sales usually but 16% does seem significantly above average (electronic buy overall is around 13-14% I think, pre-sales in advance must be a smaller fraction than that) ?

Edited by Barnack
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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, raegr said:

Hot take: one is being grossly over predicted and another is being under predicted 

 

;)

Both are being overpredicted by each of their fanbase.

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