The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric S'ennui]

13 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Fear not!  

 

Got the lube and tissues ready.

 

[Deep Wang]

10.8 

 

Now, this might not sound too crazy, but this is with two weeks left to go.  

 

I was asking the guys and not including anything with Star Wars in the title, because they make everything look positively lame in comparison, this is doing VERY well. 

 

The highest I think I remember seeing on the Thursday of release was CW, which I think was right at about 10 as well.  Black Panther no doubt was higher, but the last number I got was the 7m number 9 days out.  This has an extra 5 days and is already almost 4m ahead of it.  

 

There's no exact science to this obviously, but I still think it can surpass TLJ's $220m, def not $300m though 

[LeoC]

8 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

10.8 

 

Now, this might not sound too crazy, but this is with two weeks left to go.  

 

I was asking the guys and not including anything with Star Wars in the title, because they make everything look positively lame in comparison, this is doing VERY well. 

 

The highest I think I remember seeing on the Thursday of release was CW, which I think was right at about 10 as well.  Black Panther no doubt was higher, but the last number I got was the 7m number 9 days out.  This has an extra 5 days and is already almost 4m ahead of it.  

 

There's no exact science to this obviously, but I still think it can surpass TLJ's $220m, def not $300m though 

Not even comparable to Rogue One: A Star Wars Story?

[WrathOfHan]

How tomorrow looks at my theater:

 

Spoiler

Rampage:

 

10:15: 29/124

11:30 3D: 1/78

12:50: 4/124

1:25 3D: 2/60

2:05 3D: 2/78

3:25: 2/124

4:40 3D: 0/78

6:00: 4/124

7:15 3D: 4/78

8:35: 5/124

9:50 3D: 0/78

 

Truth or Dare:

 

11:45: 3/113

2:15: 1/113

4:45: 2/113

7:15: 16/113

9:00: 0/78

10:00: 2/113

 

A Quiet Place:

 

10:45: 6/78

1:05: 0/78

3:25: 0/78

5:45: 0/78

7:00: 11/67

8:00: 2/78

9:30: 2/67

10:30: 0/78

 

Ready Player One:

 

10:55: 7/78

1:05 3D: 1/69

4:35: 0/78

6:45 3D: 0/69

9:15: 0/78

 

I Can Only Imagine:

 

10:25: 3/78

1:10: 0/78

3:50: 2/78

6:25: 2/78

 

Blockers:

 

10:35: 2/69

2:05: 0/78

4:15: 3/69

7:45: 0/78

10:00: 0/63

 

The Miracle Season:

 

12:30: 2/63

5:15: 2/63

 

Acrimony:

 

10:20: 3/78

1:10: 0/78

4:00: 0/78

6:50: 0/78

9:40: 0/78

 

Isle of Dogs:

 

10:55: 0/78

1:30: 2/78

4:05: 0/78

6:40: 0/78

10:15: 0/78

 

Pacific Rim:

 

4:10: 0/60

9:15: 1/60

 

Rampage: 53/1,070 (45 2D/8 3D)

Truth or Dare: 24/643

A Quiet Place: 21/602

Ready Player One: 8/372 (7 2D/1 3D)

I Can Only Imagine: 7/312

Blockers: 5/357

The Miracle Season: 4/126

Acrimony: 3/390

Isle of Dogs: 2/390

Pacific Rim: 1/120

Sgt. Stubby and Sherlock Gnomes have sold nothing.

 

Rampage comps:

 

10% of Black Panther (20.2M)

18% of Thor: Ragnarok (22.1M)

20% of Justice League (18.8M)

50% of Jumanji (18.1M)

90% of Pacific Rim (25.3M) (Spring Break)

100% of Kingsman (39M)

100% of Ready Player One (41.8M) (Friday, not OD; this was also limited by sparse 2D shows)

140% of Blade Runner (45.9M)

220% of Tomb Raider (51.9M)

 

There's a huge disparity between the movies Rampage is trailing behind and the ones it's pacing on par with or ahead of  

 

Truth or Dare:

 

16% of It (19.4M)

60% of A Quiet Place (30.1M)

70% of Happy Death Day (18.2M)

85% of Insidious 4 (25.2M)

90% of Jigsaw (14.5M)

240% of Winchester (22.3M)

267% of Annihilation (29.6M)

 

The Jigsaw comp is the only one I believe tbh; this won't benefit from somewhat decent WOM like Happy Death Day did.

 

I don't have any comps for Isle of Dogs given the nature of the movie, and Sgt. Stubby obviously has no comps because it's sold nothing  

[Deep Wang]

To show just how stupid Star Wars presales are, IW is still behind the number that TLJ had 5 WEEKS OUT!!!

 

I don't have the number exactly two weeks out, but it looks like it is around 8-9m behind the pace of TLJ.

 

Now, I know what many of you are thinking, how can this beat TLJ's opening weekend if it's not going to beat it in presales?

 

Well, Rogue One had 17m final tally and that was higher than that of CW, BATB, and BvS, and yet, opened below all three.  The holidays skewed the numbers in addition to the fan base being VERY presale driven.  

[MattW]

Here's what I saved from the first buzz and tracking thread from previous movies

 

Deadpool

Feb 8: $1.4m

Feb 11: $3.4m

 

Civil War

March 21: $925k

May 2: $5.1m

May 5: $9.8m

 

BvS

March 21: $2.8m

March 24: $8.9m

 

Suicide Squad

July 26: $1.0m

Aug 1: $2.0m

Aug 4: 6.9m

Edited April 13, 2018 by MattW

[Deep Wang]

Also, while digging through my old pictures, I found this, which made me super happy because it was data from TFA.

Spoiler

 

They were so freaking close to each other its crazy!  Yet, TFA opened up $30m higher.

 

More proof that IW can hit those numbers without needing those presales.

[Deja23]

7 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Also, while digging through my old pictures, I found this, which made me super happy because it was data from TFA.

  Reveal hidden contents

 

They were so freaking close to each other its crazy!  Yet, TFA opened up $30m higher.

 

More proof that IW can hit those numbers without needing those presales.

TFA had a lower share of standard tickets compared to TLJ. Given how well BP did with IMAX and how much the IMAX cameras used to film IW has been promoted, I’d be curious to see what their breakdowns are. 

Edited April 13, 2018 by Deja23

[dxmatrixdt]

MT sales

AQP - 21.1%

IW - 20.5%

Ramp - 13.6%

T/D - 7.7%

RP1 - 6.4%

[manny1234]

Man look at Rampage it night open number two.

[Jaybee]

10 minutes ago, Thematrixfilm said:

MT sales

AQP - 21.1%

IW - 20.5%

Ramp - 13.6%

T/D - 7.7%

RP1 - 6.4%

where is rampage opening weekend heading?

[Barnack]

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

 

Last pulse

2018-04-12 21:00:00	720	A Quiet Place
2018-04-12 21:00:00	320	Blumhouses Truth or Dare (2018)
2018-04-12 21:00:00	309	Rampage (2018)
2018-04-12 21:00:00	301	Avengers Infinity War
2018-04-12 21:00:00	189	Blockers
2018-04-12 21:00:00	141	Ready Player One
2018-04-12 21:00:00	79	Isle of Dogs
2018-04-12 21:00:00	67	Black Panther
2018-04-12 21:00:00	60	Avengers Infinity War 3D
2018-04-12 21:00:00	60	Rampage 3D

All today sales (combined all format 3d, imax, together), AQP seem to have promising hold going on:

A Quiet	13830
Avengers	11468
Rampage	7891
Blumhous	4469
Ready Pl	3977
Blockers	3424
Black Pa	1766
Isle of	1730
Tyler Pe	1090
Chappaqu	984
I Can On	771
The Mira	550
Super Tr	548
Beirut	529
Pacific	405
Love, Si	358
Sherlock	358
A Wrinkl	334

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

6 minutes ago, Jaybee said:

where is rampage opening weekend heading?

This is where Tomb Raider was the night of previews on MT:

 

On 3/15/2018 at 9:07 PM, TwoMisfits said:

End of night MT.com...ICOI held the night, but the other 2 newbies did start to come on strong...look for them to hop out of #4/5 in the morning update...

19.9% I Can Only Imagine

17.3% Black Panther

14.5% Wrinkle in Time, A

11.7% Tomb Raider

8.6% Love, Simon

This and the preview reports are a bit concerning. 25M isn't even safe IMO

[Jaybee]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

This is where Tomb Raider was the night of previews on MT:

 

This and the preview reports are a bit concerning. 25M isn't even safe IMO

not even a 30m possible?

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Jaybee said:

not even a 30m possible?

Oh 30M is still possible; hell, 40M is too. The latter is the absolute roof at this point though.

[Jaybee]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Oh 30M is still possible; hell, 40M is too. The latter is the absolute roof at this point though.

hope it puts up decent numbers atleast around 30m otherwise its going to be a disaster. But i think china will save the movie. 

[dxmatrixdt]

250 OW for Infinity War seems like a decent imaginary upper limit

[fabiopazzo2]

Sw presales is on another planet in Usa

[Porthos]

Time to break out the daily countdown:

 

IW GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT UPDATE: T-14 Days and counting  

(all info in parentheses is the total change since last Sunday)

 

Sellouts: 

3/118 (+1/+2)

 

2D:  1/77 (+1/+2)

3D:  2/41 (nc)        

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 84 showings [+2]>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

3 (+1)         

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

7 (-1)

 

Front Two Rows Only (or equivalent)

27 (nc)

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

2 (-1)

 

Weekend Showings

Fr: 0/215 (+0/+1)    

St: 0/216 (+0/+1)

Su: 0/209 (nc)  

 

—

 

Reserved Seating Breakdown (84/118 showings [+2/+2]):

100%:      3  (+1)

90-99%: 10  (nc)

80-89%:  16  (+3)

70-79%:  21  (+6)

60-69%:  12  (-5)

50-59%:   6  (-1)

40-49%:   6  (+2)

30-39%:   4  (-3)

20-29%:   2  (-1)

10-19%:   4  (nc)

0-9%:       0  (nc)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	3	118	3635	11295	67.82%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 144

---

2.783 times as many seats sold as Black Panther at this point in time (7660 vs 2752)

Edited April 13, 2018 by Porthos

[fabiopazzo2]

24 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

Sw presales is on another planet in Usa

But probably is not the most important factor that we have... CW had a better presales than Ultron and TA...