The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[That One Girl]

Civil War had no significant competition in week 2 and no direct competition in week 3 before Apocalypse in week 4.  Similar situation with Infinity War, no significant competition in week 2 and two films that don't directly compete with it in week 3, before Deadpool 2 in week 4.  The only difference is Deadpool is a much bigger film than Apocalypse and week 5 has Star Wars instead of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles.

[MovieMan89]

15 minutes ago, That Ambitious Guy said:

Civil War had no significant competition in week 2 and no direct competition in week 3 before Apocalypse in week 4.  Similar situation with Infinity War, no significant competition in week 2 and two films that don't directly compete with it in week 3, before Deadpool 2 in week 4.  The only difference is Deadpool is a much bigger film than Apocalypse and week 5 has Star Wars instead of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles.

If I had one and only one wish for this forum it would be to never have to see IW compared to CW as an accurate box office gauge ever again...

 

 

Edited April 14, 2018 by MovieMan89

[That One Girl]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

If I had one and only one wish for this forum it would be to never have to see IW compared to CW as an accurate box office gauge ever again...

 

 

 

Yes, let us not compare a big budget team up film with Marvel characters to another big budget team up film with Marvel characters.

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, That Ambitious Guy said:

 

Yes, let us not compare a big budget team up film with Marvel characters to another big budget team up film with Marvel characters.

Yes, let’s compare a 400m grosser to a potential 700m+ one. Makes perfect sense! 

[Blaze Heatnix]

Opening weekend and second weekend drop will define if Infinity War will perform like Avengers / Black Panther or Civil War.

 

I'm pretty sure that the second weekend drop will be severe, given its obvious inflated opening weekend. 

[That One Girl]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yes, let’s compare a 400m grosser to a potential 700m+ one. Makes perfect sense! 

 

This would make sense if Infinity War was going to make 700M.  But it's not.  Not even with a $300M OW.

 

Also if a film has a higher OW, wouldn't that make it more susceptible to weaker legs?  Infinity War is 110% gonna be frontloaded, so many people are going to want to rush out and see it on opening weekend.

[harrycaul]

I didn't even watch the 2017 MCU releases until last month. I'd lost interest. I watched them in March (and enjoyed them, to my surprise) to prepare for IW. Which I planned to see even though I'd lost interest in MCU, to see how the story reaches a climax. It could be I don't represent a large number of similar people, but it could be that I do.

 

The worst thing for IW would be if it's NOT the climax to the story it's been sold as. It's fine if there's some resetting in next year's Avengers, but the GA is going to be murderous to the film if it ends on a pre-climax cliffhanger.

 

 

[Blaze Heatnix]

7 minutes ago, harrycaul said:

The worst thing for IW would be if it's NOT the climax to the story it's been sold as. It's fine if there's some resetting in next year's Avengers, but the GA is going to be murderous to the film if it ends on a pre-climax cliffhanger.

 

 

Yeah, they really have to take care with how they've been promoting the movie. This is clearly not the climax of the story, and Avengers 4 will get released next year. 

 

 

[JB33]

10 minutes ago, harrycaul said:

I didn't even watch the 2017 MCU releases until last month. I'd lost interest. I watched them in March (and enjoyed them, to my surprise) to prepare for IW. Which I planned to see even though I'd lost interest in MCU, to see how the story reaches a climax. It could be I don't represent a large number of similar people, but it could be that I do.

 

The worst thing for IW would be if it's NOT the climax to the story it's been sold as. It's fine if there's some resetting in next year's Avengers, but the GA is going to be murderous to the film if it ends on a pre-climax cliffhanger.

 

 

This is a good point.

[Porthos]

I have no idea what is going to happen in IW.  However, as I scan some folks expectations on the greater intrawebs, if IW doesn't play out the way those folks are expecting, there could be a fierce backlash as well.*

 

It's a tightrope walk in more than one direction, is what I am saying. If in an oblique manner.

Doesn't mean the Russos can't pull it off.  Odds are, they can.  But there is more than one pitfall looming ahead, is all I am saying.

 

* And, no, this is NOT an open invitation to discuss what those expectations might be.  Let's leave them to the side for the folks who happen to be blissfully unaware. 

Edited April 14, 2018 by Porthos

[ZeeSoh]

1 hour ago, That Ambitious Guy said:

 

This would make sense if Infinity War was going to make 700M.  But it's not.  Not even with a $300M OW.

 

Also if a film has a higher OW, wouldn't that make it more susceptible to weaker legs?  Infinity War is 110% gonna be frontloaded, so many people are going to want to rush out and see it on opening weekend.

Every movie, except TLJ, that had opened to more than 200 million has had more than 3x multi.

 

There are 12 movies that opened in the 150-200 range and their average multi is 2.6 (with Rogue One being highest with 3.43x and BvS being lowest with 1.98x)

 

Of the 200+ openers there are only 5 and their average legs are 3.22 with only TLJ being lower than 3 at 2.82x (which is still quite good). 

 

It seems opening above 200 leads to better legs whereas opening in the 150-200 are leads to average legs. But of course we have limited data points so cannot conclusively say that. 

 

I dont think IW will have a 3+ multi but maybe a movie this hyped and opening this big leads to spillover and repeated viewings?

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Every movie, except TLJ, that had opened to more than 200 million has had more than 3x multi.

FWIW, if you switch that to adjusted, Ultron and Spider-Man 3 also fail to hit a 3x, with DH Part 2 knocking on the door to be let in (no later than 2020, presumably).

Edited April 14, 2018 by Porthos

[Poseidon]

38 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

Yeah, they really have to take care with how they've been promoting the movie. This is clearly not the climax of the story, and Avengers 4 will get released next year. 

 

 

Mh, the trailers sell it, as if all is going down and Thanos wins. 

 

That's exactly what I expect of IW to be honest.

The Avengers will be in ruins when Infinity War ends.

Avengers 4 will be the resurrection, that's already going to be teasered at the end of Infinity War. 

 

I actually would bet a little money on a funeral scene to finish the movie. 

[Porthos]

37 minutes ago, Porthos said:

* And, no, this is NOT an open invitation to discuss what those expectations might be.  Let's leave them to the side for the folks who happen to be blissfully unaware. 

 

5 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

***SNIP***

 

*tap tap tap*

 

Is this mic on?  We ARE in the Box Office Buzz and Tracking thread, right?

 

Pretty sure, I didn't wander into the IW thread by mistake.

 

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, ZeeSoh said:

Every movie, except TLJ, that had opened to more than 200 million has had more than 3x multi.

 

There are 12 movies that opened in the 150-200 range and their average multi is 2.6 (with Rogue One being highest with 3.43x and BvS being lowest with 1.98x)

 

Of the 200+ openers there are only 5 and their average legs are 3.22 with only TLJ being lower than 3 at 2.82x (which is still quite good). 

 

It seems opening above 200 leads to better legs whereas opening in the 150-200 are leads to average legs. But of course we have limited data points so cannot conclusively say that. 

 

I dont think IW will have a 3+ multi but maybe a movie this hyped and opening this big leads to spillover and repeated viewings?

Exactly what I've been saying. You have factual historical data to show why a sub 2.5x multi for a 200 opener is extremely unlikely, unprecedented actually, and yet some want to claim they know IW will be just as frontloaded as CW no matter what. Gimme a break. 

[JB33]

My post from the Infinity War thread...

 

Thursday previews for AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR

 

Scotiabank Theatre Chinook - Calgary, AB

 

 

AVX 3D DOLBY ATMOS (387 seats)

7:00PM - 293/387 sold (76%)

10:30PM - 241/387 sold (62%)

 

UltraAVX 3D (396 seats)

8:15PM - 269/396 sold (68%)

 

IMAX 3D (271 seats)

7:15PM - 259/271 sold (96%)

 

IMAX (271 seats)

10:50PM - 262/271 sold (97%)

[aabattery]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Exactly what I've been saying. You have factual historical data to show why a sub 2.5x multi for a 200 opener is extremely unlikely, unprecedented actually, and yet some want to claim they know IW will be just as frontloaded as CW no matter what. Gimme a break. 

 

Seems bold to call it extremely unlikely given that you're only going off five data points

[MrGlass2]

1 hour ago, Poseidon said:

Mh, the trailers sell it, as if all is going down and Thanos wins. 

 

That's exactly what I expect of IW to be honest.

The Avengers will be in ruins when Infinity War ends.

Avengers 4 will be the resurrection, that's already going to be teasered at the end of Infinity War. 

 

I actually would bet a little money on a funeral scene to finish the movie. 

Exactly. Or Thanos gets all the infinity balls at the end.

 

It's not DH2, it's DH1.

[Plain Old Tele]

2 hours ago, harrycaul said:

I didn't even watch the 2017 MCU releases until last month. I'd lost interest. I watched them in March (and enjoyed them, to my surprise) to prepare for IW. Which I planned to see even though I'd lost interest in MCU, to see how the story reaches a climax. It could be I don't represent a large number of similar people, but it could be that I do.

 

The worst thing for IW would be if it's NOT the climax to the story it's been sold as. It's fine if there's some resetting in next year's Avengers, but the GA is going to be murderous to the film if it ends on a pre-climax cliffhanger.

 

 

 

I’m one step further along than you, in that I’ve mostly bailed on the MCU and I’ve certainly bailed on their mass-teamups. Finally learned my lesson with CW: they ain’t for me. 

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Trolltastic Tele said:

 

I’m one step further along than you, in that I’ve mostly bailed on the MCU and I’ve certainly bailed on their mass-teamups. Finally learned my lesson with CW: they ain’t for me. 

Phase 3 post CW has been nothing like that movie. Just sayin.