The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Mojoguy]

MT

AQP 24.2%
Rampage 20.2%
ToD 9.4%
RPO 7.4%
Blockers 7.4%

Edited April 15, 2018 by Mojoguy

[Plain Old Tele]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Phase 3 post CW has been nothing like that movie. Just sayin. 

 

I might see THOR 3 someday because I like Taika, and I *did* see BP, but IW seems like CW on steroids (which I gather is exactly what fans want, but I can’t imagine a bigger turn-off). I don’t really have much interest in any of the other characters at this point. 

[That One Girl]

2 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Every movie, except TLJ, that had opened to more than 200 million has had more than 3x multi.

 

There are 12 movies that opened in the 150-200 range and their average multi is 2.6 (with Rogue One being highest with 3.43x and BvS being lowest with 1.98x)

 

Of the 200+ openers there are only 5 and their average legs are 3.22 with only TLJ being lower than 3 at 2.82x (which is still quite good). 

 

It seems opening above 200 leads to better legs whereas opening in the 150-200 are leads to average legs. But of course we have limited data points so cannot conclusively say that. 

 

I dont think IW will have a 3+ multi but maybe a movie this hyped and opening this big leads to spillover and repeated viewings?

 

Sorry, I’m really not convinced.  If you look at most big Marvel sequels, then they mostly have multis below a 2.4x.  I see no reason as to why IW won’t continue the pattern.  And no I don’t care about how big it opens, why would that change anything except meaning more people see it on OW as opposed to later on?

Edited April 15, 2018 by That Ambitious Guy

[MovieMan89]

46 minutes ago, Trolltastic Tele said:

 

I might see THOR 3 someday because I like Taika, and I *did* see BP, but IW seems like CW on steroids (which I gather is exactly what fans want, but I can’t imagine a bigger turn-off). I don’t really have much interest in any of the other characters at this point. 

I hope it's not like CW, personally. That one was a bit too joyless and I just don't think the hero vs hero concept works as well for CBMs. Anyways, Homecoming is something entirely different for the MCU. You probably wouldn't like GotG2 if you don't like 1, but I will say it has more depth and heart. 

[Lordmandeep]

56 minutes ago, Trolltastic Tele said:

 

I might see THOR 3 someday because I like Taika, and I *did* see BP, but IW seems like CW on steroids (which I gather is exactly what fans want, but I can’t imagine a bigger turn-off). I don’t really have much interest in any of the other characters at this point. 

 

 

But you found Batman vs Superman to be a solid movies and Civil War runs circles around those movies in every aspect. 

 

I do agree Civil War is not really good for people outside the MCU but Batman Vs Superman is garbage in comparison lol 

Edited April 15, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[Darth Lehnsherr]

I imagine the Thor/GOTG scenes will be very much different to perhaps the "Civil War-esque" scenes back on Earth.

[Lordmandeep]

26 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

I imagine the Thor/GOTG scenes will be very much different to perhaps the "Civil War-esque" scenes back on Earth.

 

 

The Epic Scale of the Wakandan Battle and the generally warm color pallet on the film already changes the vibe from Civil War.

 

 

 

 

 

The scale of this movie is ridiculous, it makes Civil War seem like a sideshow. 

 

Edited April 15, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[MovieMan89]

Yeah, IW really looks nothing like CW to me from the trailers, but alrighty then if that's the impression some are getting. 

[YLF]

6 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

And if it pulls a TDK/TA/JW and drops closer to 50%, what then? 

Then Im wrong. Im just interested in the second weekend drop. I have no dog in this fight either way. If it drops only 40% I won't be mad.

[Porthos]

IW GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT UPDATE: T-12 Days and counting  

 

Sellouts: 

3/118 (nc)

 

2D:  1/77 (nc)

3D:  2/41 (nc)        

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 84 showings>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

5 (+1)         

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

5 (-1)

 

Front Two Rows Only (or equivalent)

30 (+1)

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

2 (nc)

 

Weekend Showings

Fr: 0/215 (nc)    

St: 0/216 (nc)

Su: 0/209 (nc)  

 

—

 

Reserved Seating Breakdown (84/118 showings):

100%:      3  (nc)

90-99%: 10  (nc)

80-89%:  19  (+2)

70-79%:  18  (-2)

60-69%:  15  (+1)

50-59%:   5  (nc)

40-49%:   6  (-1)

30-39%:   3  (nc)

20-29%:   3  (+2)

10-19%:   2  (-2)

0-9%:       0  (nc)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	3	118	3479	11295	69.20%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 62

---

2.601 times as many seats sold as Black Panther at this point in time (7816 vs 3005)

[MCKillswitch123]

10 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Every movie, except TLJ, that had opened to more than 200 million has had more than 3x multi.

 

There are 12 movies that opened in the 150-200 range and their average multi is 2.6 (with Rogue One being highest with 3.43x and BvS being lowest with 1.98x)

 

Of the 200+ openers there are only 5 and their average legs are 3.22 with only TLJ being lower than 3 at 2.82x (which is still quite good). 

 

It seems opening above 200 leads to better legs whereas opening in the 150-200 are leads to average legs. But of course we have limited data points so cannot conclusively say that. 

 

I dont think IW will have a 3+ multi but maybe a movie this hyped and opening this big leads to spillover and repeated viewings?

Cough cough:

 

1) The Force Awakens - Star Wars episode saga, the 1st one since the prequels and a sequel to Return Of The Jedi; really fun movie that's easily accessible for all audiences and demographics; holidays to massively inflate its legs

 

2) Black Panther - Cultural event alas Wonder Woman and Get Out w/monster wom

 

3) Jurassic World - Four-quadrant, sub-2 hour, supremely fast paced action movie set in one of the most iconic franchises of the last 30 years

 

4) Avengers - 5 year in the making novelty event bringing together characters from their own movies in a way that hadn't quite ever been done in Hollywood; rave wom to boot in a really fun, upbeat film

 

5) The Last Jedi - Sub-3x multiplier but still got to 2.8x because, you know, holiday power.... could have fallen sub-2x if it hadn't been for the December release tbh

 

So, what do all of these have in common? They are either supremely entertaining and easily GA-friendly four-quadrant films, or juggernauts of big cultural importance, or both. Infinity War will NOT be any of these things. It doesn't have major cultural relevance and it's not gonna be an easily acessible to all audiences, it's gonna be very frontloaded instead. (Also, Age Of Ultron made 191, which is close to 200, and only had a 2.4x.)

 

It is beyond me why some of you think it's gonna pull a Dark Knight/Avengers/Jurassic World type drop. None of those movies required anywhere near the level of franchise investment that Infinity War will demand from audiences. Fans will watch a billion times on opening, casuals will watch OW too, and then it's just gonna drop off massively.

Edited April 15, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[ZeeSoh]

10 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Every movie, except TLJ, that had opened to more than 200 million has had more than 3x multi.

 

There are 12 movies that opened in the 150-200 range and their average multi is 2.6 (with Rogue One being highest with 3.43x and BvS being lowest with 1.98x)

 

Of the 200+ openers there are only 5 and their average legs are 3.22 with only TLJ being lower than 3 at 2.82x (which is still quite good). 

 

It seems opening above 200 leads to better legs whereas opening in the 150-200 are leads to average legs. But of course we have limited data points so cannot conclusively say that. 

 

I dont think IW will have a 3+ multi but maybe a movie this hyped and opening this big leads to spillover and repeated viewings?

 

33 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Cough cough:

 

1) The Force Awakens - Star Wars episode saga, the 1st one since the prequels and a sequel to Return Of The Jedi; really fun movie that's easily accessible for all audiences and demographics; holidays to massively inflate its legs

 

2) Black Panther - Cultural event alas Wonder Woman and Get Out w/monster wom

 

3) Jurassic World - Four-quadrant, sub-2 hour, supremely fast paced action movie set in one of the most iconic franchises of the last 30 years

 

4) Avengers - 5 year in the making novelty event bringing together characters from their own movies in a way that hadn't quite ever been done in Hollywood; rave wom to boot in a really fun, upbeat film

 

5) The Last Jedi - Sub-3x multiplier but still got to 2.8x because, you know, holiday power.... could have fallen sub-2x if it hadn't been for the December release tbh

 

So, what do all of these have in common? They are either supremely entertaining and easily GA-friendly four-quadrant films, or juggernauts of big cultural importance, or both. Infinity War will NOT be any of these things. It doesn't have major cultural relevance and it's not gonna be an easily acessible to all audiences, it's gonna be very frontloaded instead. (Also, Age Of Ultron made 191, which is close to 200, and only had a 2.4x.)

 

It is beyond me why some of you think it's gonna pull a Dark Knight/Avengers/Jurassic World type drop. None of those movies required anywhere near the level of franchise investment that Infinity War will demand from audiences. Fans will watch a billion times on opening, casuals will watch OW too, and then it's just gonna drop off massively.

Cough Cough.

 

A better read next time perhaps?

[MCKillswitch123]

1 minute ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

Cough Cough.

 

A better read next time perhaps?

Ehm, fair enough, point taken.

[a2k]

imo AIW's legs will be 2.25-2.40x and ow 225-240.

[Arlborn]

2 hours ago, a2knet said:

imo AIW's legs will be 2.25-2.40x and ow 225-240.

235M OW, 2.4-2.6x to me. Legs will be heavily dependent on what sort of ending this one has in my humble opinion.

 

The ending really needs to please(in an upbeat sort of way) and/or get people to talk non-stop about it to get its legs over 2.5. And it certainly can't end in what is perceived as a big cliffhanger, which to be fair it doesn't seem like it will.

[NGGKroze]

Best Scenario?

250M OW
40% drop
150M Second Weekend
50% drop
60M Third Weekend
60% drop
24M Fourth Weekend

250 + 150 + 60 + 24 = 484 From Weekends + around 150 to 200 (total gross, not only the 4 weeks cycle) from Weekdays for final 634-684M

 

Worst?

220M OW
60% Drop
88M Second Weekend
60% Drop
35M Third Weekend
60% Drop
14M Fourth Weekend

220+88+35+14 = 357 From Weekends + around 150 to 200 from weekdays (total gross, not only the 4 weeks cycle) for final 507-557M

 

The Avengers made ~110M from Weekdays (May 7th to May 24th) 

Age of Ultron made ~75M from Weekdays (May 4th - May 21st)

Civil War made ~72.5M from Weekdays (May 9th - May 26th)

Black Panther made ~141M From Weekdays (Feb 19th - March 8th)

 

Now I'm only predicting till IW 4th weekend but adding low-balled total Weekday gross(not only 4 weeks gross).

 

Neither Ultron or Civil War had drop bigger than 60% for the 4th weekends cycle.

 

Worst Scenario:

With TA Weekdays money - 357 + 110 = 467M By May 20th

With Ultron Weekdays money - 357 + 75 = 432M By May 20th

With Civil War Weekdays money - 357 + 72.5 = 429.5M by May 20th

With Black Panther Weekdays money - 357 + 141 = 498M by May 20th

 

Best Scenario:

With TA Weekdays money - 484 + 110 = 594M By May 20th

With Ultron Weekdays money - 484 + 75 = 559M By May 20th

With Civil War Weekdays money - 484 + 72.5 = 556.5M by May 20th

With Black Panther Weekdays money - 484 + 141 = 625M by May 20th

 

To sum it up - I'm using IW Gross using only 4th weekends and the 4 weeks, weekdays gross of the other MCU movies

 

I think IW is pretty much 500M safe.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 15, 2018 by NGGKroze

[Brainbug]

I look forward to the time where IW's direction in regards to its multiplier is clear. Then these (honestly) tiring discussions can come to an end. This is my only take on that thematic.

 

For me, both sides have good arguments, why IW might perform the way they anticipate it: @MovieMan89 has a good point that this FEELS like an event, that outshines both Ultron and Civil War and could just have a run on steroids because of its massive hype, elevating itself along the way. But i also agree with people like @That Ambitious Guy, that History has shown us relatively similar patterns for massively anticipated Marvel sequels which point to a lower multi; furthermore, the hype that this movie has generated could very well lead to an Opening Weekend like DH2; now the Avengers/MCU has a lot more GA-appeal than Potter, so IW could stabilize after such a hypothetical Incredibly-Frontloaded OW, but no matter how we see all this: It always comes down to the Audience Reception.

 

The vast majority of the people who will see this movie have no idea that this is a Part One. We internet nerds know of course, but Joe Miller does not. This movie's ending will be the most important factor for its run i truly believe. If its a downbeat cliffhanger, it wont go past Civil War's multi that i am sure of. It could ofc be something entirely different, even something uplifting, what do i know. But whatever Marvel cooks up, they must satisfy the people who will be surprised to decover, that this is not the ending to the MCU as we know it, but the first half of it.

 

At this point, as long as nobody knows the ending of this movie, any projections for its multiplier are pure speculation without any weight imo.

[Life goes on]

4 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Cough cough:

 

1) The Force Awakens - Star Wars episode saga, the 1st one since the prequels and a sequel to Return Of The Jedi; really fun movie that's easily accessible for all audiences and demographics; holidays to massively inflate its legs

 

2) Black Panther - Cultural event alas Wonder Woman and Get Out w/monster wom

 

3) Jurassic World - Four-quadrant, sub-2 hour, supremely fast paced action movie set in one of the most iconic franchises of the last 30 years

 

4) Avengers - 5 year in the making novelty event bringing together characters from their own movies in a way that hadn't quite ever been done in Hollywood; rave wom to boot in a really fun, upbeat film

 

5) The Last Jedi - Sub-3x multiplier but still got to 2.8x because, you know, holiday power.... could have fallen sub-2x if it hadn't been for the December release tbh

 

So, what do all of these have in common? They are either supremely entertaining and easily GA-friendly four-quadrant films, or juggernauts of big cultural importance, or both. Infinity War will NOT be any of these things. It doesn't have major cultural relevance and it's not gonna be an easily acessible to all audiences, it's gonna be very frontloaded instead. (Also, Age Of Ultron made 191, which is close to 200, and only had a 2.4x.)

 

It is beyond me why some of you think it's gonna pull a Dark Knight/Avengers/Jurassic World type drop. None of those movies required anywhere near the level of franchise investment that Infinity War will demand from audiences. Fans will watch a billion times on opening, casuals will watch OW too, and then it's just gonna drop off massively.

It’s a shame i can’t give you a thumbs down.👎 What an utter bullshit, especially your second-last paragraph!

[MCKillswitch123]

1 hour ago, Life goes on said:

It’s a shame i can’t give you a thumbs down.👎 What an utter bullshit, especially your second-last paragraph!

Cold hard evidence as to why Infinity War will not have legs on par with Black Panther or Avengers 1 is utter bullshit to you?

 

Someone's mad and it ain't me.

[Tower]

32 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Cold hard evidence as to why Infinity War will not have legs on par with Black Panther or Avengers 1 is utter bullshit to you?

 

Someone's mad and it ain't me.

But your post wasn't evidence, it was conjecture. When you say that AIW won't be "supremely entertaining and easily GA-friendly four-quadrant films" that's just your speculation, others will think that's exactly what it will be, and since the film hasn't opened yet neither side can prove that they are correct.

 

Edited April 15, 2018 by Tower