The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

With a film this big I find it easier to count the rows and count the non Avengers movies.  Then multiply the first by 7 then subtract.  Even then it's going fast and it easy to trip up.

 

 

 

 

Heh.  Might try that next time.

 

Just did another check and for the DIRECT TLJ comparison, it's now jumped up to around 200 sets of tickets per minute  for the 3:30 PDT (6:30 PDT) time area.

 

200 on the nose for 3:32, 196 for 3:33.

 

Don't have the patience to keep checking manually beyond that.

[TalismanRing]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Heh.  Might try that next time.

 

Just did another check and for the DIRECT TLJ comparison, it's now jumped up to around 200 sets of tickets per minute  for the 3:30 PDT (6:30 PDT) time area.

 

200 on the nose for 3:32, 196 for 3:33.

 

Don't have the patience to keep checking manually beyond that.

Just counted 3:34 PST/6:34 EST and got 204 so that's in line with yours.

That's about the end of my patience as well 

 

The only numbers I have for TLJ and BP Thursday are:

 

TLJ: 275 (10:45am)

BP:  244 (2:30 pm)

 

also

 

ThorR: 103 (12:15) 112 (1:15pm), 145 (4pm) 175 (4:50)

IT: 25 (8:20am) 41(9am) 102 (12:20pm) 140 (1pm) 186 (4:50pm)

SMHC: 49avg (9am), 110 (12pm), 138( 1pm) 174 (3:50pm), 216 (5:20pm)

 

 

 

Edited April 25, 2018 by TalismanRing

[dxmatrixdt]

4,470 theaters for Infinity War certainly helps put the opening weekend record in striking distance.  (currently The Force Awakens).

I'm fairly confident that IW will not surpass TLJ in Thursday previews, but I think that # is probably the targeted range.  I've thought 30m in previews for a long time because Batman v Superman did 29 and then Civil War did around 28.  

 

The Last Jedi

45m previews, 220 opening weekend, 175m without previews

 

Infinity War could do the same 45 in previews + 200 without previews to approach the 248m record of The Force Awakens

[WrathOfHan]

IW update:

 

7:00: 115/124 (+9)

7:00 3D: 75/113 (+1)

7:15: 66/78 (+6)

7:30 3D: 50/78 (+2)

7:45: 64/78

8:00 3D: 49/78

8:45 3D: 13/69 (+3)

9:15: 58/78 (+35)

9:45: 8/78 (+5)

10:15 3D: 4/60 (+4)

10:30: 98/124 (-2)

10:30 3D: 41/113 (+1)

Total: 641/1,071 (+64)

 

Now running at 129% of Black Panther's final total (260.6M)  

 

 

Edited April 25, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[The Mad Titan]

49 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Just counted 3:34 PST/6:34 EST and got 204 so that's in line with yours.

That's about the end of my patience as well 

 

The only numbers I have for TLJ and BP Thursday are:

 

TLJ: 275 (10:45am)

BP:  244 (2:30 pm)

 

also

 

ThorR: 103 (12:15) 112 (1:15pm), 145 (4pm) 175 (4:50)

IT: 25 (8:20am) 41(9am) 102 (12:20pm) 140 (1pm) 186 (4:50pm)

SMHC: 49avg (9am), 110 (12pm), 138( 1pm) 174 (3:50pm), 216 (5:20pm)

 

 

 

So to clarify because I'm slow and easily lost, it's running roughly 15% ahead of where TLJ was at the same time/same day? 

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, The Mad Titan said:

So to clarify because I'm slow and easily lost, it's running roughly 15% ahead of where TLJ was at the same time/same day? 

Yes though one must take into account that TLJ had heavier pre-sales up to that point.  

[Hiccup23]

Avengers: Infinity War

1,779

2,610

68.2%

 

Great number!

 

Below are the Top 3 preview sellers at my theater

Stars Wars: Last Jedi

2,371

2,710

87.5%

Black Panther

1,357

2,398

56.6%

Wonder Woman

1,270

1,984

64.0%

 

[The Mad Titan]

18 minutes ago, Hiccup23 said:

Avengers: Infinity War

1,779

2,610

68.2%

 

Great number!

 

Below are the Top 3 preview sellers at my theater

Stars Wars: Last Jedi

2,371

2,710

87.5%

Black Panther

1,357

2,398

56.6%

Wonder Woman

1,270

1,984

64.0%

 

Think that can go up another 500 within the next 24 hours? 

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Thematrixfilm said:

4,470 theaters for Infinity War certainly helps put the opening weekend record in striking distance.  (currently The Force Awakens).

I'm fairly confident that IW will not surpass TLJ in Thursday previews, but I think that # is probably the targeted range.  I've thought 30m in previews for a long time because Batman v Superman did 29 and then Civil War did around 28.  

 

The Last Jedi

45m previews, 220 opening weekend, 175m without previews

 

Infinity War could do the same 45 in previews + 200 without previews to approach the 248m record of The Force Awakens

BvS- 27.7m  / $166 (Good Friday/Easter w/e) 5.99x

CW - 25 / $179.1m - 7.164x

AOU 27.6 / $191.2m  - 6.927x

BP - 25.2 / 202m (Holiday Monday) - 8x

RO: 29m / 155m - 5.334x

TLJ: 45m/ 220m  - 4.888

 

I don't think it would need $45m to hit $248.  Could do $40m with a 6.2x multi. 

 

AOU's mutli with about the same previews as RO was 29.9% higher.   If we used the same % diff between TLJ and AIW it would be a 6.33x 

 

 

[dxmatrixdt]

Avengers 1 previews - 18.7m

Avengers 2 previews - 27.6m (+48%)

Avengers 3 previews - (+48%) = 40.74m

Edited April 26, 2018 by Thematrixfilm

[stfletch]

Fandango pre-sales number for Infinity War over the last few weeks, missing a week in the middle unfortunately as I was away for a work trip and didn't have a chance to download the data from the python tracker.

 

 
Date                  2D         3D       I-2D     I-3D     Total           
2018-04-02      3732      822      583      385      5522           
2018-04-03      4564      969      759      509      6801           
2018-04-04      5327    1139      837      551      7854           
2018-04-05      3648      849      701      425      5623           
2018-04-06      2326      517      447      295      3585           
2018-04-07      2245      532      334      242      3353           
2018-04-08      1286      327      198      150      1961   *only as far as 1pm       
                             
2018-04-16    10200    2174    1308      892    14574           
2018-04-17    13220    3071    1830    1220    19341           
2018-04-18    16111    3833    2208    1555    23707           
2018-04-19    12863    2950    1617    1263    18693           
2018-04-20      9793    2303    1251      883    14230           
2018-04-21      8519    2061    1031      726    12337           
2018-04-22    15230    3570    1770    1269    21839    *missing 11pm       
2018-04-23    34395    7801    3844    2700    48740           
2018-04-24    39830    8672    3864    2891    55257           
2018-04-25    34372    7338    2670    2149    46529    *only as far as 6pm    

 

  

 

Edited April 26, 2018 by stfletch

[Hiccup23]

1 hour ago, The Mad Titan said:

Think that can go up another 500 within the next 24 hours? 

 

It is pretty capped out

[TalismanRing]

Fandango NYC Area

 

 

Avengers: Infinity War  (April 25, 2018 - Wed)

Theaters: 59

Showings: 621

Reserved*: 351

Sellouts**:  161

Complete Sellouts: 84

Near Sellouts: (didn't count) (just too many)

 

Avengers: Infinity War  (April 24, 2018 - Tuesday)

Theaters: 59

Showings: 580

Reserved*: 338

Sellouts**:  132

Complete Sellouts: 67

Near Sellouts:  (didn't count)

 

Avengers: Infinity War  (April 22, 2018 - Sunday)

Theaters: 58

Showings: 456

Reserved*: 259

Sellouts**:  125

Complete Sellouts: 47

Near Sellouts:  155 at 90% and up (new category)

 

Spotted first 4 am showing added

 

Avengers: Infinity War  (April 16, 2018 - Monday - 10 days out)

Theaters: 54

Showings: 403

Reserved*: 235

Sellouts**:  94

Complete Sellouts: 35

Near Sellouts:  130 at 90% and up (new category)

 

 

BLACK PANTHER

2/14/2018 (Wed before opening)

Theaters: 59

Showings: 449

Reserved*: 262

Sellouts**: 69

Complete Sellouts: 30

 

2/10/2018 (Sat before opening w/e)

Showings: 332

Reserved*: 196

Sellouts**: 53

Complete Sellouts: 20

 

2/1/2018 (2 weeks)

Showings: 211

Reserved*: 132

Sellouts**: 27

Complete Sellouts: 11

 

* only showings I can check online for capacity

** The Tele method - front row or fewer seats left unsold

Edited April 26, 2018 by TalismanRing

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, Thematrixfilm said:

Avengers 1 previews - 18.7m

Avengers 2 previews - 27.6m (+48%)

Avengers 3 previews - (+48%) = 40.74m

That’s just science. Really looking forward to those 60.3M previews for A4 (actually this is not that insane, if it acts sort of like DH2).

Edited April 26, 2018 by Sliver Legion

[Porthos]

You know, it's interesting.  There is a shit-ton of show times for IW in the Sacramento area.  One theater complex has 20 showings going on.

 

Yet there's not a single showing starting after 12:45am.  Which is... interesting.  TFA had a couple of theaters round the clock.  TLJ had a couple of 3am'ers.  

 

I'd say even Black Panther had overnight showings here, except I think that was something of a special case with a screen crunch going on due to awards season AND the unexpected nature of the mega-breakout (meaning that theaters might have 'overbooked' not realizing the coming demand of BP).

 

But with IW I'm not seeing it.  There is exactly 1 showing out of 174 starting at 12:45am and 1 other one at 12:30am.  'Normally' (if such a word could be used for a film like this), I'd expect a few 1am showings at the very least.

 

Makes me wonder if the fact that two brand new theaters being open in the area is helping pick up demand.  Or perhaps theaters had plenty of time to plan their screens accordingly.

 

Still might be added tomorrow/late tonight, of course.  But is a bit odd.

Edited April 26, 2018 by Porthos

[Eric the IF]

Update

Avengers	3928	5088	77.20%
Deadpool 2	305	2042	14.94%

 

Avengers is now 97% of TLJ ($214.2M), and 79% of BP ($160.6M)

 

TLJ seems like the safer bet, not only because I don't see this going sub-$200M (watch me jinx it), but also because the area my theater's in is strongly biased towards black-led films, so it's not a totally fair comparison.

[Porthos]

IW GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT UPDATE: T-1 Day and counting  

 

Sellouts: 

11/174 (+3/+12)

 

2D:  9/122 (+3/+11)

3D:  2/52 (+0/+1)        

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 126 showings [+5]>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

9 (+2)         

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

14 (+6)

 

Front Two Rows Only (or equivalent)

54 (-2)

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

5 (-3)

 

Weekend Showings

Fr: 0/397  (+0/+65)    

St: 0/393  (+0/+61)

Su: 0/373 (+0/+52)  

—

 

Reserved Seating Breakdown (126/174 showings [+5/+12]):

100%:     10 (+3) [+1 non reserved theater]

90-99%:  23 (+8)

80-89%:  34 (-1)

70-79%:  25 (-2)

60-69%:  13 (+1)

50-59%:   6 (-2)

40-49%:   1 (-1)

30-39%:   4 (+3)

20-29%:   5 (-1)

10-19%:   2 (nc)

0-9%:      3 (-3)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	11	174	3625	15159	76.09%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today:   3

Total Shows Added Today:   12 (5 reserved seating)

Total Seats Added Today:   488

Total Seats Sold Today:      738

---

1.945 times as many seats sold as Black Panther at this point in time (11534 vs 5929)

 

===

 

Local drive-in finally checked in and nearly all theaters have set their full Thr/Fr/St/Su lineups.  Still a little room for a few more Thursday showings at a couple of theaters, but this should be close to the final lineup.

 

Also appears to be an error at one theater chain that has the exact same three showings on Friday, Saturday, AND Sunday listed as Sold Out.  But I highly doubt any of them are actually sold out for various reasons and am 90% sure it is some sort of computer error.   So they're not going on the sellout list until I become convinced that they're actually sold out. 

[Porthos]

As an addendum to the last post, when I did my final check (roughly about 45 minutes or so before the 7pm showings) for Black Panther, it had sold 8,104 tickets.  IW is already at 1.423x as many tickets sold at 11,534.

[The Mad Titan]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

As an addendum to the last post, when I did my final check (roughly about 45 minutes or so before the 7pm showings) for Black Panther, it had sold 8,104 tickets.  IW is already at 1.423x as many tickets sold at 11,534.

Realistically how many more do you think they can sell? 1k?

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, The Mad Titan said:

Realistically how many more do you think they can sell? 1k?

It's tough to say.  On the one hand, Black Panther sold 2,100 tickets in the same(-ish) time period.  On the other hand, it had a lot of empty seats still available (it was at 56% capacity at this point in time, more or less, while IW is already at 76%) and IW is already close to its ceiling.  A lot of the seats left are pretty crummy, being on edge of rows, the first rows, or scattered about.

 

On the other hand, there are quite a few screenings where there are still good seats to purchase.  Plus a few theaters might still add shows.  I think it all comes down to how badly people want to see it Thursday versus how much willpower they have to wait a couple of days and see it over the weekend.

 

NB:  I also have as a part of my system where for my VERY FINAL REPORT, any screening with six seats or left is then manually adjusted to a sellout, mostly because I wouldn't be able to find out if a showing is sold out in those last 45 minutes (or earlier if I'm actually going to a premiere showing) where I'm not tracking it.  So those seats will get manually added as a separate count at the very end.  

Edited April 26, 2018 by Porthos