The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Plain Old Tele]

6 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Which data and what would one define as a super storm?   Would  $35m in previews and a $240m o/w be enough?   Or does it need to be $40 and $260m?

 

I don't need it to do unheard-of numbers to call it "gigantic". It's just I'm happy to say that anything over TA/JW is huge and should be appreciated.

 

I think it'll do 35m+ in previews. I don't think it hits 40m (though it has a chance). These are enormous numbers and I don't think people appreciate how hard it is to hit them, or to give enough credit to a movie for reaching them.

 

I don't think it has a chance in hell of hitting 240m for the weekend, though.

Edited April 23, 2018 by Trolltastic Tele

[FlashMaster659]

MT

 

IW - 60.4%

AQP - 6.1%

IFP - 5.4%

ST2 - 5%

Rampage - 4.9%

[TalismanRing]

17 minutes ago, Trolltastic Tele said:

 

I don't need it to do unheard-of numbers to call it "gigantic". It's just I'm happy to say that anything over TA/JW is huge and should be appreciated.

 

I think it'll do 35m+ in previews. I don't think it hits 40m (though it has a chance). These are enormous numbers and I don't think people appreciate how hard it is to hit them, or to give enough credit to a movie for reaching them.

 

I don't think it has a chance in hell of hitting 240m for the weekend, though.

Maybe adjusted for inflation which would be $234m

 

Unadjusted it would need a sub 6 multiplier to just do TA/JW numbers.   Marvel is not SW when it comes to front loaded w/es.  Just look at RO and it's 29/155 - and it had the best internal mutli for recent SW.  Only with that kind of multi would a $40m preview result in $210m

 

AOU adjusts to an o/w of $203.9m with about $29.5m in previews and a 6.92 internal multi (lower than CW's 7.11)   The same multi for $35m  -  $242m.   Even a 6.5 multi would give it $227m

 

Edited April 23, 2018 by TalismanRing

[MovieMan89]

As I already stated, preview number discussions for IW are going to be brutal around here until we get some concrete Friday proper numbers. People are forgetting how all MCU films have played in respect to previews. The bigger the preview, the more potential the OW record gets shattered. I'm only looking for 35-40m previews myself to feel comfortable the record can go down. 

Edited April 23, 2018 by MovieMan89

[Plain Old Tele]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Maybe adjusted for inflation which would be $234m

 

Unadjusted it would need a sub 6 multiplier to just do TA/JW numbers.   Marvel is not SW when it comes to front loaded w/es.  Just look at RO and it's 29/155 - and it had the best internal mutli for recent SW.  Only with that kind of multi would a $40m preview result in $210m

 

AOU adjusts to an o/w of $203.9m with about $29.5m in previews and a 6.92 internal multi (lower than CW's 7.11)   The same multi for $35m  -  $242m.   Even a 6.5 multi would give it $227m

 

 

Whether rightly or wrongly, I don't buy into adjusted numbers ever. You're right that SW is more frontloaded than Marvel, generally speaking, but Marvel has been getting steadily more frontloaded (especially with their big team-up movies), and my assumption is that this might be their most frontloaded to date (in terms of previews->OW). I could be wrong, of course. In terms of ULTRON adjusted, I think it does a little better than those numbers. 

 

I don't think you (the general you) can have it both ways: either it has a huge preview number (40m+) or it's more backloaded than other franchises. But not both together. You can't just take one multi and scale it up for a larger preview number -- IMO the multi will drop the higher the preview number gets.

 

Just my two cents, of course.

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

As I already stated, preview number discussions for IW are going to be brutal around here until we get some concrete Friday proper numbers. People are forgetting how all MCU films have played in respect to previews. The bigger the preview, the more potential the OW record gets shattered. I'm only looking for 35-40m previews myself to feel comfortable the record can go down. 

The problem with this thinking it is entirely possible that the nature of the film's marketing will lead to a different viewing pattern from the fanbase.

 

How possible it can't be said.  But I don't think one should reject out of hand the possibility of this being more frontloaded (in terms of a preview/OW split) than a normal Marvel film.

[TalismanRing]

7 minutes ago, Trolltastic Tele said:

 

Whether rightly or wrongly, I don't buy into adjusted numbers ever. You're right that SW is more frontloaded than Marvel, generally speaking, but Marvel has been getting steadily more frontloaded (especially with their big team-up movies), and my assumption is that this might be their most frontloaded to date (in terms of previews->OW). I could be wrong, of course. In terms of ULTRON adjusted, I think it does a little better than those numbers. 

 

I don't think you (the general you) can have it both ways: either it has a huge preview number (40m+) or it's more backloaded than other franchises. But not both together. You can't just take one multi and scale it up for a larger preview number -- IMO the multi will drop the higher the preview number gets.

 

Just my two cents, of course.

CW was less front loaded in it's preview to o/w than Ultron was 6.92 v 7.164.  (with a 2.6m difference in previews)

 

The multi will drop but IMO more back loaded would be around 6 with $40m not 5.25.  

 

We already saw that RO with a similar preview #to AOU with $29m had a 5.25 multi and made $36m less.  

 

 

[Nova]

You simply can't have it both ways. You can't claim that this movie is going to make over $40M in previews and then say "well it's going to be backloaded." That's not how it works. Sure the MCU in general is not as front loaded as other franchises but when you consider how presales have changed the game and also consider how Marvel has been marketing this film, it's not hard to see that this may very well be Marvel's most front loaded film. Will it be as front loaded as a Star Wars film? Absolutely not. But it's also not going to be as backloaded as other entries in the MCU so using their previews to OW multiplier for this film is pretty much useless. If you honestly think this will hit $35M+ in previews and not be front loaded you're setting yourself up for disappointment, imo. 

[MovieMan89]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

The problem with this thinking it is entirely possible that the nature of the film's marketing will lead to a different viewing pattern from the fanbase.

 

How possible it can't be said.  But I don't think one should reject out of hand the possibility of this being more frontloaded (in terms of a preview/OW split) than a normal Marvel film.

If it goes nuts and does like 50-60m in previews, then I may agree it's playing much different than other MCU films. Even then though, we still won't know for sure until Friday proper numbers start hitting, because of the pattern of so many films in the franchise to generate massive walk up business. 

[FlashMaster659]

Infinity War MT - 65.7%

 

TLJ MT at same point in time - 75.7%

[TalismanRing]

22 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Infinity War MT - 65.7%

 

TLJ MT at same point in time - 75.7%

 

Previous w/e B.O.: $125m v $83m

[The Mad Titan]

7 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Previous w/e B.O.: $125m v $83m

Also, TLJ had its world premiere on the Saturday before it's opening weekend so critical buzz and social media reactions had already been happening for 2 days by the opening week Monday. If online and critical buzz are massive tonight/tomorrow, it may juice it even further. 

[dxmatrixdt]

I don't think this will go higher than Harry Potter 8 previews.

[Lordmandeep]

How does going from 27 million to 35 million from AOU result in becoming far more front loaded then AOU over the weekend?

 

IW has a solid chance at the Saturday Record.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 24, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[eXtacy]

2 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Infinity War MT - 65.7%

 

TLJ MT at same point in time - 75.7%

Kind of useless comparison as it entirely depends on competition

[Mojoguy]

People waiting for that RT score...

[Plain Old Tele]

3 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

People waiting for that RT score...

 

In terms of previews (and probably even Friday), it’s a movie that’s RT-proof. 

[MrGlass2]

17 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

People waiting for that RT score...

Before buying a second ticket?

[Biggestgeekever]

16 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Before buying a second ticket?

Before buying my third ticket

 

Spoiler

 

[The Panda]

36 minutes ago, Trolltastic Tele said:

 

In terms of previews (and probably even Friday), it’s a movie that’s RT-proof. 

To be fair, I’m not sure how much of an effect RT has on the BO in general.  I think it’s just as likely that critic reviews for blockbusters, in general, tend to roughly match audience reception of a film, and so a quality film will get good reviews, good audience reception and be easier to market.