The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Stewart]

@grim22 Any chance you could look in the old buzz thread to find MT comps for TFA? Tried searching WoKJ but nothing came up

[Stewart]

Found this comparison to TFA: 

 

https://web.archive.org/web/20151218031836/http://www.movietickets.com/

 

Which shows TFA at 94% Thursday evening (equivalently in about 10 hours time)

[MCKillswitch123]

I'm not one for over-optimism, but I'm pretty confident that this kind of tracking and performance really indicates a potential 40+ Thursday gross. Which, if even a 35M Thursday would get it to ~240M with an Ultron-like multiplier, one can imagine that 1) either the IM will be a lot more Star Wars-like than other cbm's-like... or 2) 40M+ means the OW record is all but toast.

[JB33]

17 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I'm not one for over-optimism, but I'm pretty confident that this kind of tracking and performance really indicates a potential 40+ Thursday gross. Which, if even a 35M Thursday would get it to ~240M with an Ultron-like multiplier, one can imagine that 1) either the IM will be a lot more Star Wars-like than other cbm's-like... or 2) 40M+ means the OW record is all but toast.

An Ultron-like multiplier based on $40M previews would result in an OW a tiny bit under $286M. Unfortunately I can't see that happening.

Edited April 26, 2018 by JB33

[Lordmandeep]

Ultron is a bad comparison as the Saturday for that really screwed up things.

 

Without the fight, Ultron would Have done more like

 

84

66

58

 

198 Million weekends. 

[Nth]

^84+66+58=208

[WrathOfHan]

About 5 hours to go:

 

7:00: 117/124 (+2)

7:00 3D: 81/113 (+1)

7:15: 68/78 (+2)

7:30 3D: 50/78 (+1)

7:45: 66/78 (+2)

8:00 3D: 52/78 (+2)

8:15: 38/63 (New show replacing Traffik)

8:45 3D: 46/69 (+27)

9:15: 63/78

9:45: 57/78 (+16)

10:15 3D: 19/60 (+11)

10:30: 104/124 (+5)

10:30 3D: 46/113 (+5)

Total: 807/1,134 (+112 with +63 on capacity)

 

Current comps in relation to final sales:

 

75% of The Last Jedi (165M)

162% of Black Panther (327.2M)

239% of Thor: Ragnarok (293.3M)

251% of Justice League (235.4M)

690% of Pacific Rim: Uprising (193.9M)

949% of Rampage (339.7M)

972% of A Quiet Place (487.9M)

996% of Blade Runner 2049 (326.7M)

The only other show that can be cancelled now is the 7:40 Super Troopers because IW is taking over the other 11 screens in some capacity  If they don't cancel that show, they can still get another one in at 10:10 or so. I honestly won't be surprised if they let some of the other screens play later into the night; the demand is there.

 

[Lordmandeep]

One Indication of Mega Opener Status

 

Strong Presales for Friday day shows as reserved shows are about 50-70% full for Friday before 5 pm. 

 

 

My point being is that even with huge previews another ~60 million in day business should happen. 

[JB33]

4 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

One Indication of Mega Opener Status

 

Strong Presales for Friday day shows as reserved shows are about 50-70% full for Friday before 5 pm. 

 

 

My point being is that even with huge previews another ~60 million in day business should happen. 

What are the chances of $65M? I want to see it take that true Friday record.

[Lordmandeep]

4 minutes ago, JB33 said:

What are the chances of $65M? I want to see it take that true Friday record.

 

 

With massive previews, it becomes really difficult.

 

 

[grim22]

2 hours ago, feasby007 said:

@grim22 Any chance you could look in the old buzz thread to find MT comps for TFA? Tried searching WoKJ but nothing came up

We have Ultron Thursday

 

 

On 4/30/2015 at 9:00 PM, TalismanRing said:

Movietickets.com  Just to document

 

AOU: 95%

AOU Double Bill: 1%

Age Of Adeline: 1%

Uttama Villain: 0%

FF7: 0%

 

[JB33]

2 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

With massive previews, it becomes really difficult.

 

 

Makes you wonder if JURASSIC WORLD's $63.5M really is the cap for true Friday business.

 

Actually, I could see THE LION KING beating it next summer. 4 quadrant family film based on an all time favourite classic in the middle of summer?

[The Mad Titan]

6 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Makes you wonder if JURASSIC WORLD's $63.5M really is the cap for true Friday business.

 

Actually, I could see THE LION KING beating it next summer. 4 quadrant family film based on an all time favourite classic in the middle of summer?

Yea the Lion King could be insane. BATB did $174 million in March. TLK coming in summer, being substantially more popular, I could see it doing $100 million more.

[Taruseth]

9 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Makes you wonder if JURASSIC WORLD's $63.5M really is the cap for true Friday business.

 

Actually, I could see THE LION KING beating it next summer. 4 quadrant family film based on an all time favourite classic in the middle of summer?

I don't know, the film needs to be good and they need to create hype with incredible trailers etc., but then it might happen.

[fabiopazzo2]

21 minutes ago, JB33 said:

 

Actually, I could see THE LION KING beating it next summer. 4 quadrant family film based on an all time favourite classic in the middle of summer?

yes

[Stewart]

Final theatre count 4474, that extra 4 makes all the difference  

 

 

 

[Deep Wang]

31 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Makes you wonder if JURASSIC WORLD's $63.5M really is the cap for true Friday business.

 

A number of films all within $62-63.5m means that is a hard cap on true Friday.

[Legion Again]

Just now, Deep Wang said:

 

A number of films all within $62-63.5m means that is a hard cap on true Friday.

Wouldn’t it be more meaningful to look at adjusted figures or admissions here? There’s no reason why the nominal value of a true Friday would have any kind of cap. 

[Biggestgeekever]

4 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

A number of films all within $62-63.5m means that is a hard cap on true Friday.

In 2006, no film had hit $40M on OD minus midnights, with only one getting very close. And then Pirates of the Caribbean 2 destroyed that with $46.8M pure Friday.

 

Everything is a hard cap until it isn't.

[JB33]

1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

 

A number of films all within $62-63.5m means that is a hard cap on true Friday.

That's kind of how I was thinking. Same goes for the big 3 of STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS, JURASSIC WORLD and THE AVENGERS finishing between $68M-$69M on Saturday.

 

In fact, the OW's for JW and TA are pretty much identical and, previews aside, the only difference between those weekends and that of TFA's is the extra $3M or so on Sunday for TFA. 

 

Taking out previews, which vary from movie to movie, franchise to franchise, those opening weekends all look very, very similar, suggesting peak business.

 

The thing that will help IW is obviously inflation, which is why I think a new Saturday record is very possible. Then again, I thought that for TLJ.