The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[filmlover]

22 minutes ago, Thematrixfilm said:

I do not see showings listed for Show Dogs yet on Fandango for next weekend, but The Book Club has Thursday previews starting at 5pm and going for 3x showings per location.  Might suggest a preview number above (1/2) million.

Of course it's getting previews that early. Its target audience can't drive at night.

Edited May 14, 2018 by filmlover

[Porthos]

Deadpool 2 Greater Sacramento Area Seat Report: T-4 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	121	9472	13467	29.67%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:         264

==============================

 

Solo: A Star Wars Story GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT UPDATE: T-11 Days and counting  

 

Sellouts: 

1/87 (nc) [R1: 6/105]

 

2D:  0/62 (nc) [R1: 4/69]

3D:  0/25 (nc) [R1: 2/36]

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 66 showings [R1: 45]>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

0 (-1) [R1: 4]

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

1 (nc) [R1: 1]

 

Front Two Rows Only (or equivalent)

11 (+1) [R1: 15]

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

0 (nc) [R1: 2]

 

Weekend Showings

Fr:   0/195

St:   0/197

Su:  0/194

Mo: 0/185

 

---

 

Reserved Seating Breakdown (66/87 showings):

100%:      1 (nc)

90-99%:   1 (nc)

80-89%:   6 (nc)

70-79%:   8 (nc)

60-69%:   6 (nc)

50-59%:   3 (nc)

40-49%:   4 (+1)

30-39%:   6 (nc)

20-29%:   5 (-1)

10-19%:   5 (nc)

0-9%:     21 (nc)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	87	5944	9348	36.41%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:       48

----

.5451x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after 10 days of pre-sales.
.4324x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 11 days before release. (IW had 21 more days of pre-sales)
1.104x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 11 days before release. (BP had 18 more days of pre-sales) [I don't have info for day four of pre-sales for BP]
1.212x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 11 days before release. (DP2 had two [or so] more days of pre-sales)

[Nova]

Deadpool is number one on Pulse 

 

Will probably get pushed back to number two though during the day. 

[Boxofficerules]

Incredibles 2 is number 5 on Pulse

[fabiopazzo2]

I think TI2 will beat  Dory OW ..

[KeepItU25071906]

1 hour ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

I think TI2 will beat  Dory OW ..

I agree, but, honestly, I've waited for bigger starting presales. It's bothering me... 

Edited May 14, 2018 by KeepItU25071906

[Porthos]

DP2 is picking up on sales now over at Fandango.  It beat IW on aggregate overnight and is probably just a pip behind it now when all formats are combined for both movies as the morning/early afternoon sales for IW start.

 

As the Sunday sales clear off the rolling 24 hour counter, DP2 should start climbing the MT list as well.  Right now at 7.8%, up from 4% yesterday.

 

[MovieMan89]

I'm surprised DP2 is still so far from IW on MT. I mean the movie's not grossing massive numbers anymore, and DP2 is a hyped CBM sequel 3 days from release now. I honestly thought it'd be #1 at this point. 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

I'm surprised DP2 is still so far from IW on MT. I mean the movie's not grossing massive numbers anymore, and DP2 is a hyped CBM sequel 3 days from release now. I honestly thought it'd be #1 at this point. 

IW just did nearly 19m on Sunday according to Disney's conservative estimates.  Takes time for that to clear off of MT.com.

 

DP2 isn't the type of film to get THAT many presales.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Porthos said:

IW just did nearly 19m on Sunday according to Disney's conservative estimates.  Takes time for that to clear off of MT.com.

 

DP2 isn't the type of film to get THAT many presales.

DP2 should be rife with pre-sales as a CBM sequel. Obviously not on an SW level, but other than that what else gets more pre-sales? 

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

DP2 should be rife with pre-sales as a CBM sequel. Obviously not on an SW level, but other than that what else gets more pre-sales? 

Don't let the 200m+ OW of BP and and the 250+ OW of IW skew the thinking here.  Even if DP2 does clear 150m OW, that's still a 150m OW.  Especially for a film that crushed it on walkups originally.

 

I see no particular reason for DP2 to be ahead of IW in the last 24 hours.  Won't be too surprised though if it passes IW late tonight though.

Edited May 14, 2018 by Porthos

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Don't let the 200m+ OW of BP and IW skew the thinking here.  Even if DP2 does clear 150m OW, that's still a 150m OW.  Especially for a film that crushed it on walkups originally.

 

I see no particular reason for DP2 to be IW in the last 24 hours.  Won't be too surprised though if it passes IW late tonight though.

How many sequels to big CBMs  clear 150 on walkup business without huge pre-sales? Treating it like the first movie makes no sense. To me pre-sales are suggesting below the first's OW. Just not big enough for 150+, imo. 

Edited May 14, 2018 by MovieMan89

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

How many sequels to big CBMs  clear 150 on walkup business without huge pre-sales? Treating it like the first movie makes no sense. To me pre-sales are suggesting below the first's OW. Just not big enough for 150+, imo. 

It is having good presales. Especially for an R-rated movie. But the thing with using MT is that it's relative.  How many incoming CBMs had to deal with a movie that did 60m+ the previous OW?  Might be instructive to look at them and see when they hit number one over at MT.

 

FTR, over the last three hours on aggregate DP2 is still outselling IW over at Fandango.  That's with the morning/early afternoon sales for IW already picking up:

 

DP2: 2937 sets of tickets

IW:  2717 sets of tickets.

 

Personally I think DP2 is right about where I expected it to be.

[MovieMan89]

I'm not saying DP2's showing is atrocious or something, I'm just saying I'm not seeing signs to a much bigger OW than the first, if bigger at all. 

[Hades]

Love it when people underestimate Mr.Wilson..

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I'm not saying DP2's showing is atrocious or something, I'm just saying I'm not seeing signs to a much bigger OW than the first, if bigger at all. 

Fair enuf. 

 

---

 

Did some looking for recent comps (in the last couple of years) and couldn't find anything really comparable for a film in the expected range of DP2 having a 50+m film the prior weekend.  Closest I came was BatB last year which had the 60m Skull Island the previous week.  And even that's not a great comp at all since I think there are very few people who expect DP2 to do THAT well.

 

EDIT:::::

 

Hmmm..  Furious 7 might be a decent comp now that I check.  Did 147m its OW and had the 52m OW of Home the week prior.  Not a great comp for many reasons (presales have picked up in the three years since, not a CBM, and the relative difference between a 50m and 60m OW), but it might be the best one yet (fans of a franchise getting tickets almost right at that 150m mooted target).

Edited May 14, 2018 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Did a deeper dive and I think the absolute best comp we have is Suicide Squad.

 

Did 133.6 its OW, which is nearly identical to DP1 (132.4).  Suicide Squad had the 59m Jason Bourne the weekend prior.  And August 2016 is somewhat close enough for presales to be pretty indicative.  Also probably targeting the same subset of comic fans, now that I think of it.

 

Main difference is JB did 15.8 on its Sunday, which could be 5m less than IW.  That isn't a small difference at all. So still not as good of a comp as it might be, but perhaps close enough that we can adjust on the fly?

 

@grim22  Pardon me for asking, but do we have any MT data on Suicide Squad the weekend before its release in the original tracking thread?

[Stewart]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Did a deeper dive and I think the absolute best comp we have is Suicide Squad.

 

Did 133.6 its OW, which is nearly identical to DP1 (132.4).  Suicide Squad had the 59m Jason Bourne the weekend prior.  And August 2016 is somewhat close enough for presales to be pretty indicative.  Also probably targeting the same subset of comic fans, now that I think of it.

 

Main difference is JB did 15.8 on its Sunday, which could be 5m less than IW.  That isn't a small difference at all. So still not as good of a comp as it might be, but perhaps close enough that we can adjust on the fly?

 

@grim22  Pardon me for asking, but do we have any MT data on Suicide Squad the weekend before its release in the original tracking thread?

I found this https://web.archive.org/web/20160803000231/http://www.movietickets.com/#.WvnYitMvxds 

 

Tuesday late evening:

20% - Suicide Squad

18% - Bourne

14% - Bad Moms

9%   - SLoP

8%   - Star Trek: Beyond

[Porthos]

RISE!!! RISE AND WRECK YOUR TERROR ON THE WORLD, DEADPOOL!!!

 

Quote

2018-05-14 16:01:33.977776 UTC
1	36.1%	Avengers: Infinity War
2	12.9%	Life of the Party
3	12.1%	Breaking In
4	7.1%	Overboard
5	7%	Deadpool 2

2018-05-14 17:01:33.782003 UTC
1	35.1%	Avengers: Infinity War
2	12.6%	Life of the Party
3	12%	Breaking In
4	7.8%	Deadpool 2
5	7.2%	Overboard

2018-05-14 18:01:41.706107 UTC
1	34.2%	Avengers: Infinity War
2	12.1%	Breaking In
3	12.1%	Life of the Party
4	9%	Deadpool 2
5	7.2%	Overboard

2018-05-14 19:01:38.780702 UTC
1	33.1%	Avengers: Infinity War
2	12%	Breaking In
3	11.5%	Life of the Party
4	10.6%	Deadpool 2
5	7.2%	Overboard

2018-05-14 20:01:43.058709 UTC
1	32.5%	Avengers: Infinity War
2	12.4%	Deadpool 2
3	11.6%	Breaking In
4	10.7%	Life of the Party
5	7%	Overboard

2018-05-14 21:01:41.219513 UTC
1	31.2%	Avengers: Infinity War
2	14.6%	Deadpool 2
3	11.2%	Breaking In
4	10.1%	Life of the Party
5	6.4%	Overboard

Was at about 4% yesterday before it started rising.  Gap is now just 16.6% between it and IW.  Probably passes it sometime today then.  If not today, def tomorrow.

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

RISE!!! RISE AND WRECK YOUR TERROR ON THE WORLD, DEADPOOL!!!

 

Was at about 4% yesterday before it started rising.  Gap is now just 16.6% between it and IW.  Probably passes it sometime today then.  If not today, def tomorrow.

If it doesn't do it by the end of today, it might take til Wed morning - tomorrow is cheap Tuesday, and somehow, that is always a big MT.com seller...