The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Blaze Heatnix]

Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom has been online for at least 1 week and the quality is damn good.

 

Universal fucked up the release date. I'm pretty sure a lot of people have already watched it online. 

[poweranimals]

10 minutes ago, abra said:

I think it was a mistake for UNIVERSAL to release the film so late after the premiere in the world

Yeah, never underestimate people just illegally downloading it if they have that option. 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

You know? I feel the mass underestimation for JW2 comes exactly from those who despise and always assumes that this and the next one (JW3) will never do Marvel-business again. They always assume that JW2 must do bad numbers in order for the third one to do worse. Am i feeling that the same limited people are nothing but MCU-stans and thinks other franchises from different genres have no chance against them? Hell, two of the new Star Wars-trilogy did blockbuster-numbers, yet i don’t see anyone else complaining about their success.

Edited June 21, 2018 by MrFanaticGuy34

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Wouldn't Fallen Kingdom expect to be a bit more presales heavy than Jurassic World given that it's a sequel? And I don't know the majority of users at the start of the year thought Marvel had reached its peak with The Avengers both Domestic and Worldwide. 

[WrathOfHan]

1 hour ago, That One Guy said:

 One theater in a shitty part of Florida surrounded by old people 

I did have a Black Panther comp that was spot on

 

[Thrylos 7]

3 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

You know? I feel the mass underestimation for JW2 comes exactly from those who despise and always assumes that this and the next one (JW3) will never do Marvel-business again. They always assume that must do bad numbers in order for the third one to do worse. Am i feeling that the same limited people are nothing but MCU-stans and thinks other genres have no chance against them? Hell, two of the new Star Wars-trilogy did blockbuster-numbers, yet i don’t see anyone else complaining about their success.

Funny I see the exact opposite. Many butthurt people over the success of the MCU trying to support everything else just to have an arguement with MCU fans. The various pre-release clubs for IW and the majority of opinions expressed there is a testament to that, people like movieman89 , who was damn right in everything he predicted, were ridiculed there. Solo flopping, JL flopping, JW2 ready to have a huge drop worldwide compared to the first while every MCU sequel is flying to much bigger bo results than its predecessor has made some people even more bitter. 

 

 The underestimation of JW2 comes  from the fucking presales numbers that are terrible. Anyway don’t see any reason for anxiety , real numbers are almost here and a TLJ kind of drop WW for JW2 is what I predict. The movie’s lack of quality will affect its legs a lot in the U.S.

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

 

Is that even possible? I'm actually curious about it. 

It is possible in a tight weekend for a movie to be #2 on MT.com, yet #1 for the BO weekend (if the 2 are close) - animateds and foreign films tend to do a bit better on MT.com (although so do male dominated franchises), so I2 will stay higher than it probably will end up.

 

But, it's still not a good sign:)...

 

 

Edited June 21, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[John Marston]

31 minutes ago, abra said:

I think it was a mistake for UNIVERSAL to release the film so late after the premiere in the world

 

 

Thats is the only explanation I can think of of why this would drop as badly as some predict 

[kswiston]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

It is in a tight weekend (if the 2 are close) - animateds and foreign films tend to do a bit better on MT.com (although so do male dominated franchises), so I2 will stay higher than it probably will end up.

 

But, it's still not a good sign:)...

 

 

 

How close are Fallen Kingdom and Incredibles 2 on those charts right now?

[The Panda]

1 minute ago, kswiston said:

 

How close are Fallen Kingdom and Incredibles 2 on those charts right now?

Incredibles is up by around 17-18% last time I checked

[MovieMan89]

Just now, kswiston said:

 

How close are Fallen Kingdom and Incredibles 2 on those charts right now?

50.3% for I2, 33.8% for FK. Still needs to close the gap by over 15% within about 5 hours if it's gonna be #1 when the movie opens on the east coast. That's quite a bit to close it by in that short of a time. Has closed the gap about 15% in the last 15 hours or so. 

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, kswiston said:

 

How close are Fallen Kingdom and Incredibles 2 on those charts right now?

MT.com (as of now)

50.3% Incredibles 2, The

33.8% Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

2.8% Ocean's 8

2.1% Tag

1.2% Solo: A Star Wars Story

 

The true "picture" for the weekend will be tomorrow night's number and Saturday night's closing number...you could see JW2 edge ahead Friday (even if it will lose the weekend) and be back behind by Saturday night...or you could see the same and JW could still win the weekend:).

 

Right now, if this % difference stays, it's unlikely JW2 wins...but I'm expecting the gap to close rapidly over the next 24 hours...

[MrFanaticGuy34]

14 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Funny I see the exact opposite. Many butthurt people over the success of the MCU trying to support everything else just to have an arguement with MCU fans. The various pre-release clubs for IW and the majority of opinions expressed there is a testament to that, people like movieman89 , who was damn right in everything he predicted, were ridiculed there. Solo flopping, JL flopping, JW2 ready to have a huge drop worldwide compared to the first while every MCU sequel is flying to much bigger bo results than its predecessor has made some people even more bitter. 

 

 The underestimation of JW2 comes  from the fucking presales numbers that are terrible. Anyway don’t see any reason for anxiety , real numbers are almost here and a TLJ kind of drop WW for JW2 is what I predict. The movie’s lack of quality will affect its legs a lot in the U.S.

I know why. Because some joykillers here hated this one (including you) just so they can wishfully think it’ll fail to do huge numbers. And before you or someone else says ”What does our opinions have to do with JW2 doing worse than expected?” or something like this. Because one person assumes always the worst for the franchise. And i know your mindset is for that wish to happen, like ”If i hate it, everyone else will hate it as well”. Christ, do you guys really want this franchise to be in the shadow of the MCU because of assumptions for it to underperform and avoid the movie at all cost? No wonder why’ll this only enforces people to hate the movie.

Edited June 21, 2018 by MrFanaticGuy34

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

MT.com (as of now)

50.3% Incredibles 2, The

33.8% Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

2.8% Ocean's 8

2.1% Tag

1.2% Solo: A Star Wars Story

 

The true "picture" for the weekend will be tomorrow night's number and Saturday night's closing number...you could see JW2 edge ahead Friday (even if it will lose the weekend) and be back behind by Saturday night...or you could see the same and JW could still win the weekend:).

 

Right now, if this % difference stays, it's unlikely JW2 wins...but I'm expecting the gap to close rapidly over the next 24 hours...

I still would like to know the last big movie to not be #1 on MT when it opens on Thursday night but win the weekend box office. Can't recall such a thing since MT has been relevant. 

[Porthos]

Inc 2 has retaken the tracking lead over at Fandango (though it looks to be pretty neck and neck when all formats are combined):

 

Updated by @akvalley: 2018-06-21 11:01:28 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2018-06-21 10:00:00	1433	Incredibles 2
2018-06-21 10:00:00	1216	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom
2018-06-21 10:00:00	224	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom 3D
2018-06-21 10:00:00	155	Oceans 8
2018-06-21 10:00:00	127	Incredibles 2 3D
2018-06-21 10:00:00	84	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom An IMAX 3D Experience
2018-06-21 10:00:00	80	Solo A Star Wars Story
2018-06-21 10:00:00	73	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-06-21 10:00:00	66	Tag (2018)
2018-06-21 10:00:00	49	Deadpool 2
2018-06-21 10:00:00	42	Avengers Infinity War
2018-06-21 10:00:00	36	Incredibles 2 The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-06-21 10:00:00	35	Hereditary
2018-06-21 10:00:00	28	SuperFly (2018)

2018-06-21 09:00:00	1379	Incredibles 2
2018-06-21 09:00:00	1287	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom
2018-06-21 09:00:00	236	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom 3D
2018-06-21 09:00:00	133	Oceans 8
2018-06-21 09:00:00	122	Incredibles 2 3D
2018-06-21 09:00:00	95	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom An IMAX 3D Experience
2018-06-21 09:00:00	76	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-06-21 09:00:00	74	Solo A Star Wars Story
2018-06-21 09:00:00	61	Tag (2018)
2018-06-21 09:00:00	58	Deadpool 2
2018-06-21 09:00:00	38	Incredibles 2 The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-06-21 09:00:00	36	Avengers Infinity War
2018-06-21 09:00:00	34	Ant-Man and the Wasp
2018-06-21 09:00:00	34	Hereditary
2018-06-21 09:00:00	31	SuperFly (2018)

2018-06-21 08:00:00	1344	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom
2018-06-21 08:00:00	1343	Incredibles 2
2018-06-21 08:00:00	254	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom 3D
2018-06-21 08:00:00	124	Incredibles 2 3D
2018-06-21 08:00:00	114	Oceans 8
2018-06-21 08:00:00	91	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom An IMAX 3D Experience
2018-06-21 08:00:00	88	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-06-21 08:00:00	53	Solo A Star Wars Story
2018-06-21 08:00:00	46	Tag (2018)
2018-06-21 08:00:00	41	Deadpool 2
2018-06-21 08:00:00	30	Incredibles 2 The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-06-21 08:00:00	29	Ant-Man and the Wasp
2018-06-21 08:00:00	29	Avengers Infinity War

=============

 

JK:FK should retake it soon-ish, but this ain't a great sign for JK:FK getting a huge surge today. 

Edited June 21, 2018 by Porthos

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I still would like to know the last big movie to not be #1 on MT when it opens on Thursday night but win the weekend box office. Can't recall such a thing since MT has been relevant. 

Not sure what new movie, but Black Panther won quite a few late weekends this year when it would be behind Friday and then smoked the other movies over the weekend...although that's an exception since you have fewer presales the later in the game a movie gets...

 

EDIT: I know this happened on WiT's OW...and pretty sure Tomb Raider's, too...

Edited June 21, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Not sure what new movie, but Black Panther won quite a few late weekends this year when it would be behind Friday and then smoked the other movies over the weekend...although that's an exception since you have fewer presales the later in the game a movie gets...

 

EDIT: I know this happened on WiT's OW...and pretty sure Tomb Raider's, too...

Right, it makes sense for a holdover to be able to do that, but not a new movie. I think this will be a first if FK wins the weekend without getting to #1 on MT by opening. 

[kswiston]

I am still having a hard time seeing Incredibles 2 over JW2 considering that it's 3 days vs 3.5 this weekend. But right now, it does seem that either Incredibles manages much better than the expected 85-90M, or Fallen Kingdom misses that 135M+ tracking by a fair margin. 

[Nova]

I’m not an MCU stan. I’m just reporting the numbers. It’s not my fault that JW2 presales are where they’re at but apparently now a days anytime someone is trying to be realistic with their predictions on this site they’re either a hater or an MCU stan who doesn’t want to see other franchises succeed. 

[Cap]

My big question concerning Walk-Ups is: What Will MoviePass Users Do?

 

MoviePass just hit 3M users.  If you use the average ticket price of $8.97 (I'm gonna around to $9), there's $27M of Walk-Up of untrackable profits for the weekend.  Will every one of them go see JWFK?  Will they all go opening night?  Will they wait on WOM?  I Don't Know.

 

But if it's tracking to 100M to 120M, that could be enough to push it to at least 130M+