The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[DAJK]

My theatre's been super dead for this tonight. Maybe considering the latest showing for this is really early in the night relatively speaking, but I'd be shocked if it went over our equivalent of 7M for previews. 

[BugsBunny]

https://deadline.com/2018/07/ant-man-and-the-wasp-opening-box-office-overperform-marvel-1202422128/

 

hmmm... this is so weird, it’s almost like it’s bang-on exactly the numbers I was saying it would be based on the MT percentages. 

 

Edit: my first look was 13.5mm. I later got bashful and said 12mm+. This was happening when people said just having some chance of hitting double digits would be a great showing.

Edited July 6, 2018 by BugsBunny

[el sid]

MT update:

#1 Ant-Man and the Wasp 38.3%
#2 The Incredibles 2 18%

#3 JW 2 16.2%
#4 The First Purge 9.9%
#5 Sicario 2 2.8%

[WrathOfHan]

Theater update:

 

10:15: 98/124 +20

11:00 3D: 8/78 +2

11:45: 46/67 +1

12:15: 17/78 +14

12:30 3D: 5/60

1:00: 27/124 +7

1:45 3D: 4/78

2:30: 9/67 +7

3:00 3D: 0/78

3:45: 27/124

4:30 3D: 5/78 +2

5:15: 13/67 +3

5:45 3D: 0/78

6:30: 51/124 +2

7:15 3D: 13/78

8:30 3D: 2/78

9:15: 22/124

10:00 3D: 0/78

Total: 344/1,583 (Up 55) (307 2D/37 3D)

 

Damn, the 3D shows are doing horrendously.

 

 

 

[TalismanRing]

22 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

.2877x  (39m) as many tickets sold as Infinity War =  $11.22m

.5072x  (25.2m) as many tickets sold as Black Panther = $12.78m

.5962x  (18.6m) as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2  = $11m

.6666x  (14.1m) as many tickets sold as Solo = $9.36m

.7137x  (15.3m) as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2= $10.9m

 

So far from these numbers -  it's looking like a $11-12m range.

 

(Tossing out Solo since it had heavier than usual early pre-sales and didn't gain accordingly on Thur. BP also exploded during the night)

@Porthos & San Diego er a California S city's er Sacramento's theaters are sooo helpful.

 

Edited July 6, 2018 by TalismanRing

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

@Porthos & San Diego theaters are sooo helpful.

 

 

Spoiler

 all the same.

 

[DAJK]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 all the same.

 

Never doubting your numbers again. Not that I ever did, but I really should pay much more attention to them. Thank you, from all of us, for the no doubt countless hours you've put into these numbers. 

[Alli]

What happened to tracking for MI-Fallout? No numbers were released this week

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Never doubting your numbers again. Not that I ever did, but I really should pay much more attention to them. Thank you, from all of us, for the no doubt countless hours you've put into these numbers. 

Thanks, means a lot.

 

I am curious though how accurate it's gonna  stay.  We got at least three new theaters opening up in Sacramento over the next 18 months or so.

 

Two dinner theaters, plus a new 13 screen multiplex in an area of town that's slightly underserved.

 

On the one hand, more seats = more potential tickets sold.  On the other hand, I'm tracking things within a 20 mile radius of Downtown Sacramento, so it's really just seeing who is going to one theater over another.

 

This is one of the reasons I've also been reporting percentage of seats sold.  Just to see if that is a superior metric when more theaters are added to the mix.

 

On the third hand, new theaters are opening up all the time in major metropolises.  So what's happening in Sacramento will be replicated in other markets in due time.  Meaning I SHOULD expect seat inflation as time goes on.

 

[DAJK]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Thanks, means a lot.

 

I am curious though how accurate it's gonna  stay.  We got at least three new theaters opening up in Sacramento over the next 18 months or so.

 

Two dinner theaters, plus a new 13 screen multiplex in an area of town that's slightly underserved.

 

On the one hand, more seats = more potential tickets sold.  On the other hand, I'm tracking things within a 20 mile radius of Downtown Sacramento, so it's really just seeing who is going to one theater over another.

 

This is one of the reasons I've also been reporting percentage of seats sold.  Just to see if that is a superior metric when more theaters are added to the mix.

 

On the third hand, new theaters are opening up all the time in major metropolises.  So what's happening in Sacramento will be replicated in other markets in due time.  Meaning I SHOULD expect seat inflation as time goes on.

 

More theatres being added I think will only help your analysis I think, at least given time. You will be able to collect data from a larger sample size, and when you are finally able to create comps from those three new theatres, it would likely, or hopefully, make your analysis even more accurate given the increased sample size.

 

That's one thing I've learned from using my theatre as a meter stick to measure business. I think the system I've got is more or less pretty good, but the inherent problem I always run into is that it is such a small sample size that it is too easily affected by an outside variable like a particularly rainy Sunday afternoon, or an old car show in down the day a movie targeted at seniors is opening. 

 

I think your system is working very well and will likely only continue to improve. I'm going to be watching very closely from now on. 

[HesAPooka]

From boxoffice.com
 

Mission: Impossible – Fallout
Opening Weekend Range: $60 – 75 million

Not much has changed since our initial report as anticipation and buzz continue to grow ahead of Tom Cruise’s sixth outing as Ethan Hunt. The film appeared on traditional industry tracking for the first time this week with metrics lining up to Boxoffice’s expectations earlier this summer.

 

 

Skyscraper
Opening Weekend Range: $30 – 45 million (down from $30-50M)

Due to stalling social media growth in comparison to Dwayne Johnson’s recent films, we’re slightly lowering forecasts again ahead of next week’s debut. A solid run could still be in store, though.

 

[MrGlass2]

Updated by @akvalley: 2018-07-06 17:00:14 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2018-07-06 16:00:00	1052	Ant-Man and the Wasp
2018-07-06 16:00:00	401	Incredibles 2
2018-07-06 16:00:00	382	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom
2018-07-06 16:00:00	286	The First Purge
2018-07-06 16:00:00	137	Ant-Man and the Wasp 3D
2018-07-06 16:00:00	134	Sicario Day of the Soldado
2018-07-06 16:00:00	88	Uncle Drew
2018-07-06 16:00:00	84	Oceans 8
2018-07-06 16:00:00	62	Ant-Man and the Wasp The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-07-06 16:00:00	45	Tag (2018)

Edited July 6, 2018 by MrGlass2

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, MrGlass2 said:

Updated by @akvalley: 2018-07-06 17:00:14 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2018-07-06 16:00:00	1052	Ant-Man and the Wasp
2018-07-06 16:00:00	401	Incredibles 2
2018-07-06 16:00:00	382	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom
2018-07-06 16:00:00	286	The First Purge
2018-07-06 16:00:00	137	Ant-Man and the Wasp 3D
2018-07-06 16:00:00	134	Sicario Day of the Soldado
2018-07-06 16:00:00	88	Uncle Drew
2018-07-06 16:00:00	84	Oceans 8
2018-07-06 16:00:00	62	Ant-Man and the Wasp The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-07-06 16:00:00	45	Tag (2018)

Hourly totals sometimes get updates the next hour

 

2018-07-06 16:00:00	1403	Ant-Man and the Wasp
2018-07-06 16:00:00	524	Incredibles 2
2018-07-06 16:00:00	518	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom
2018-07-06 16:00:00	398	The First Purge
2018-07-06 16:00:00	192	Sicario Day of the Soldado
2018-07-06 16:00:00	176	Ant-Man and the Wasp 3D
2018-07-06 16:00:00	115	Uncle Drew
2018-07-06 16:00:00	109	Oceans 8
2018-07-06 16:00:00	84	Ant-Man and the Wasp The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-07-06 16:00:00	61	Wont You Be My Neighbor
2018-07-06 16:00:00	59	Tag (2018)
2018-07-06 16:00:00	50	Whitney
2018-07-06 16:00:00	42	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom 3D
2018-07-06 16:00:00	40	Ant-Man and the Wasp An IMAX 3D Experience

[TalismanRing]

Fandango Ap: Daily Totals as of 9PM CST

 

AM & TW:	28,760
Incredibles 2	8,090
JW:FK	7.566
The First Purge	4,933
Sicario 2	2,415
Uncle Drew	1,513
Oceans	1,283
Tag	658

[poweranimals]

I'm kinda surprised they still bother with 3D showings.

[dxmatrixdt]

movietickets.com top 5 sellers at closing today

1 - Ant-Man - 38.6%

2 - Jurassic - 16.5%

3 - Incredibles - 15.3%

4 - Purge 4 - 7.7%

5 - Sicario - 3.9%

 

I2 was > JW yesterday.  the swap might indicate a close finish at #2 on Saturday.

[DAJK]

Wonder how Skyscraper and Hotel are going to perform for advance sales over the next few days. Don't expect something like Hotel to sell particulairly strong, so if it can show up earlier in the week, say Tuesday night, that would be a great sign for it.

 

If Skyscraper doesn't enter MT top 5 by Wednesday afternoon, I'd say it's in trouble. 

[MovieMan89]

11 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Wonder how Skyscraper and Hotel are going to perform for advance sales over the next few days. Don't expect something like Hotel to sell particulairly strong, so if it can show up earlier in the week, say Tuesday night, that would be a great sign for it.

 

If Skyscraper doesn't enter MT top 5 by Wednesday afternoon, I'd say it's in trouble. 

Whatever Skyscraper does, it probably would have been lucky to make 1/3 of it without the Rock. Movie is completely hinging on him. 

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

Whatever Skyscraper does, it probably would have been lucky to make 1/3 of it without the Rock. Movie is completely hinging on him. 

And an over 100m production value, an very proven concept + a clear use of anthropology study firm's of what humans love to see used by the movie team filled with crowd pleasing populism in a perfectly calculated money crab.

 

It is not particularly an hard sale.

[Quake]

On 7/7/2018 at 5:11 AM, poweranimals said:

I'm kinda surprised they still bother with 3D showings.

🙄Because it is 40% of the gross of a movie WW. Thats Why! And a movie like this is a blast in 3D. 

Edited July 8, 2018 by Quake