The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[filmlover]

I'm thinking First Man is gonna settle for an opening in the teens now tbh.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, filmlover said:

I'm thinking First Man is gonna settle for an opening in the teens now tbh.

It might happen. Presales are looking incredibly light, and IMAX shows have been selling double of the standard shows on Pulse.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

It might happen. Presales are looking incredibly light, and IMAX shows have been selling double of the standard shows on Pulse.

I think at worst it opens with $15M like Bridge of Spies did three years ago.

[WrathOfHan]

I'm starting to think Universal will drop First Man at some IMAXs for Halloween next week, especially if it's only opening in the mid-teens. Even with the filmed in IMAX factor, they'd be losing so much money with how big Halloween is looking to open.

[LegendaryBen]

Presales from Fandango Yesterday (calculated them from AKValley):

First Man - 654 (IMAX was included with those totals)

Goosebumps 2 - 300

Bad Times at El Royale - 264

 

Of course, Bad Times will struggle to break the double digits this weekend. I'm thinking an opening similar to The Counselor will happen. After all, it's only tripling Life Itself at this pace and we all know how poorly it did.

 

We'll see what happens tonight with presales but it's looking like neither FM nor GB2 will break $20M at this rate unless they do dramatically in well in walk-ups. This may be good news for ASIB holding well and possibly jumping up to #1 this weekend.

 

In fact, a theater I go to is showing Venom in XD again this weekend instead of First Man and they already have their showtimes decided for this weekend last night. Not a good sign of confidence.Insert other media

Edited October 9, 2018 by LegendaryBen

[Valonqar]

First Man was playing commercials during TWD season opener and they are weak sauce IMO. Too much focus on Goose who is a human sedative and too little focus on space and Moon which should be the selling point. They dropped the ball. This ain't gonna be the next Gravity or Martian or even Interstellar. 

[Eric Loves Rey]

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
A Wrinke In Time		4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1469	3607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Small Foot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867
A Star Is Born First Man Goosebumps 2 Bad Times	9,115 654 300 264	11,383	22,641*

 

 

Also of note:

First Man IMAX: 395 (60% of First Man tickets sold)

First Man Regular: 259 (40%)

[el sid]

16 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

Halloween seems to be selling more tickets right now than this weeks new releases!

Yes. So far it was always in front this week.
Fortunately Pulse became more useful again (for me) than it was over the last days due to the enormous ticket sales of Venom and ASIB (you could wait half an hour or longer for a few minutes of Pulse):

Yesterday morning (US time) it looked like that:
First Man: 8/7 minutes of Pulse (also not bad)
Goosebumps 2: 1/7 minutes (was doing better a few hours before but I didn't count)
Halloween: 11/7 minutes.

And today, two hours ago:
First Man: 7/15 minutes
Goosebumps: 7/15 minutes
Bad Times At The El Royale: 1/15 minutes
Halloween: 21/15 minutes
Bohemian Rhapsody: 3/15 minutes.

And one hour ago:
Bad Times: 7/15 minutes - improved
First Man: 6/15 minues
Goosebumps: 2/15 minutes
Halloween: 13/15 minutes
Bohemian: 5/15 minutes.

By the way, in this Wendy show they mention ASIB, Creed II, Widows, Bohemian Rhapsody, Halloween and The Hate U Give. All movies get decent applaus but Halloween is for sure the most anticipated.

Edited October 9, 2018 by el sid

[Boxofficerules]

3 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
A Wrinke In Time		4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1469	3607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Small Foot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867
A Star Is Born First Man Goosebumps 2 Bad Times	9,115 654 300 264	11,383	22,641*

 

 

Also of note:

First Man IMAX: 395 (60% of First Man tickets sold)

First Man Regular: 259 (40%)

Why no Halloween numbers?

[Eric Loves Rey]

4 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Why no Halloween numbers?

I'm only focusing on this week's releases. If you really care it sold 1,535 tickets yesterday.

[WrathOfHan]

13 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

I'm only focusing on this week's releases. If you really care it sold 1,535 tickets yesterday.

Venom did 1,892 at the same point in time for comparison. That would translate to a 65M OW.

[DAJK]

America sucks if First Man opens below 20M. Would love to see a weekend where 3 movies go above 30

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

49 minutes ago, DAJK said:

America sucks if First Man opens below 20M. Would love to see a weekend where 3 movies go above 30

Hey now, Canada is included in that number as well...

[DAJK]

56 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

Hey now, Canada is included in that number as well...

*sigh, alright. But if Canada alone could get First Man to 30M, we can have that conversation  

[WrathOfHan]

On 9/25/2018 at 2:09 PM, WrathOfHan said:

Crazy Rich Asians, The Meg, and Unbroken: Path to Redemption are gone.

 

Smallfoot: 8 (7 2D/1 3D; XL x0.6, Biggest x0.8, and Smallest x0.2) 

Hell Fest: 7 (XL x0.2 and Average)

Night School: 7 (XL x0.4 and Biggest)

 

The House with a Clock in Its Walls: 9 (Down 1; XL x0.8 and Average)

The Nun: 5 (Down 3; Average)

Peppermint: 5 (Flat; Smallest)

The Predator: 5 (Down 2; Biggest x0.2 and Smallest x0.8)

A Simple Favor: 5 (Flat; Average)

White Boy Rick: 5 (Flat; Smallest)

Fahrenheit 11/9: 4 (Down 1; Smallest x0.8)

Life Itself: 1 (Down 4; Smallest x0.2)

 

Auditorium sizes for reference:

  Hide contents

 

XL: 300 (two screens are this size)

Biggest: 130 (two screens are this size)

Average: 100 (four screens are this size; one has five extra seats)

Smallest: 47 (four screens are this size)

 

 

The Nun, The Predator, and A Simple Favor are gone (never got around to last week lol oops).

 

First Man: 10 (XL and Average)

Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween: 8 (Biggest and Average x0.6)

Bad Times at the El Royale: 5 (Smallest)

 

Venom: 12 (Down 4 and lost 3D; XL and Average x1.4)

A Star Is Born: 8 (Flat; Biggest and Average)

The House with a Clock in Its Walls: 5 (Flat; Smallest)

Night School: 5 (Flat; Smallest)

Smallfoot: 5 (Flat; Smallest)

 

Auditorium sizes for reference:

Spoiler

XL: 300 (two screens are this size)

Biggest: 130 (two screens are this size)

Average: 100 (four screens are this size; one has five extra seats)

Smallest: 47 (four screens are this size)

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

My AMC is getting Colette this week  I'm guessing Bleecker Street managed to get this into 1,200+ theaters

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

My AMC is getting Colette this week  I'm guessing Bleecker Street managed to get this into 1,200+ theaters

I imagine it's in 400-500 theaters this weekend. The Sisters Brothers is also opening around here too (as are The Old Man & the Gun and The Hate U Give) so that's clearly getting a sizeable push too.

 

I'm curious though about what A24's plans are with Mid90s. It's opening at a lot of theaters around here on the 26th.

[WrathOfHan]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I imagine it's in 400-500 theaters this weekend. The Sisters Brothers is also opening around here too (as are The Old Man & the Gun and The Hate U Give) so that's clearly getting a sizeable push too.

 

I'm curious though about what A24's plans are with Mid90s. It's opening at a lot of theaters around here on the 26th.

There is no way it’s that low; my AMC never gets movies that are below 500 theaters and below 1k for non Christian films.

[Eric Loves Rey]

https://variety.com/2018/film/box-office/box-office-first-man-venom-1202972814/

 

Quote

The superhero film [Venom], which posted the best Monday in October with $9.6 million, will likely win the weekend with as much as $30 million to $40 million in its second outing.

 

Damien Chazelle’s biographical drama — featuring Ryan Gosling as astronaut Neil Armstrong — is shooting for upwards of $20 million, though some industry analysts suggest “First Man” could reach $25 million.

 

Fellow newcomer “Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween” could also give “First Man” a run for its money if the family film comes in on the higher end of projections. The stand-alone sequel to 2015’s “Goosebumps” is hoping to scare up between $15 million and $21 million when it bows in 3,400 venues.

 

Meanwhile, Fox’s neo-noir mystery “Bad Times at the El Royale” is eyeing a wide range between $8 million and $12 million from 2,500 screens, though some ambitious estimates show it could make as much as $17 million

Don't feel confident over First Man's projections, but this all seems legit.

 

Quote

“A Star Is Born” should earn another $16 million to $20 million this weekend.

Edited October 10, 2018 by CoolEric258

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

There is no way it’s that low; my AMC never gets movies that are below 500 theaters and below 1k for non Christian films.

Perhaps they managed to get it in 600+ theaters like The Man Who Invented Christmas or Beirut. It's mostly opening at arthouse-friendly multiplexes around here.