The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[filmlover]

Early tracking for the November 2 openers.

 

Bohemian Rhapsody: $30M

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms: $23-26M

Nobody's Fool: $10-17M (lol what a discrepancy)

 

https://variety.com/2018/film/box-office/box-office-bohemian-rhapsody-opening-weekend-1202977060/

[dxmatrixdt]

https://www.fandango.com/cinderella-167741/movie-overview

 

Cinderella (2015) getting a small re-release this weekend, they never show up in the weekend columns, maybe this one is for charity or disability.

[carlsalf38]

7 hours ago, filmlover said:

It's not a question of "if" A Star is Born will eventually start making more per day/weekend than Venom but a question of "when."

Well. After opening with a difference of almost 40 Million A Star is Born was at 170k of supassing Venom yesterday so yeah, I guess Today is the day Mama Monster chomps on the Symbiote Monster (at least on the week over the weekend Venom could improve a little bit but only this weekend)

[TwoMisfits]

So, how you know the free vet's/military tickets are successful?

 

Tickets sold for 7pm First Man (where 1st 25 of those folks who arrive to get tickets are free) - 38/90 sold (this theater is by a mil base, so I'm expecting they no longer have freebs)

Tickets sold for 10pm First Man - 0/90

 

For Universal's sake, maybe the "free" tickets promo will spur sales this weekend, b/c it can't hurt at this point...at least it will definitely help the Thursday number...

 

PS - There is not a local around me with a normal 2d sold ticket for any First Man show at 10pm or later yet tonight...only the 2D Imax has sold a ticket at this hour (across 6 theaters)...should be very low late show adds without enormous walk ups for a movie I don't expect that kinda large walk up behavior from...

Edited October 11, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[Curtis1986]

Yikes. The 7 p.m. on next showing of first man only sold 9 tickets so far

[WrathOfHan]

7 PM shows at my theater:

 

El Royale: 27/78

First Man: 20/78

 

El Royale is in line with a lot of mid teens openers from the first quarter of the year while First Man is at like two thirds of The Post (at work so cant pull up my document RIP). The 745 goosebumps has sold 12 seats so far.

[DAJK]

Gonna try starting something similar to Han here now that the place I'm living has reserved seating. Two large cinema's in town, one only has reserved seating for its IMAX shows (so I'll try and do an IMAX comp every week) and the other theatre doesn't have IMAX but it has reserved seating shown for all its showtimes. 

Keep in mind the "IMAX" numbers and regular numbers are coming from different theatres. Bad Times for example is playing at both theatres, but only one of them does reserved seating, so the IMAX and regular comps should be seen as separate. 

Gonna obviously take me a long time to build up comps but I might as well start now.

 

7:00 shows: 

 

First Man IMAX - 56/431

This is where I would put an IMAX comp in, since because I don't have data for all movies in both formats at both locations, the IMAX comp would be separate.

 

First Man - 54/86

El Royale - 27/89

Goosebumps isn't at this theatre.

This is where my regular comps would be.

 

Now just gonna predict. Going to say 1.55M for First Man, and 630k for El Royale. Not entirely based on these theatre's numbers, but a combo of that and just a guess. 

Edited October 12, 2018 by DAJK

[Krissykins]

4 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

7 PM shows at my theater:

 

El Royale: 27/78

First Man: 20/78

 

El Royale is in line with a lot of mid teens openers from the first quarter of the year while First Man is at like two thirds of The Post (at work so cant pull up my document RIP). The 745 goosebumps has sold 12 seats so far.

Hopefully El Royale can save some face and open over $10m at least. 

[WrathOfHan]

8 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Hopefully El Royale can save some face and open over $10m at least. 

I think it can happen; it's fifth on Pulse right now fwiw

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I think it can happen; it's fifth on Pulse right now fwiw

Tomato Law lives. @CJohn

[La Binoche]

42 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I think it can happen; it's fifth on Pulse right now fwiw

do you have the top 5? 

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, La Binoche said:

do you have the top 5? 

1. A Star Is Born

2. Venom

3. First Man

4. Goosebumps 2

5. El Royale

[DAJK]

10:00

First Man IMAX - 12/431

            Total: 68 tickets

 

First Man regular - 12/86

             Total: 66 tickets

Bat Times - 19/89

             Total: 46 tickets

 

 

That's pretty solid for Bad Times IMO. I'm still trying to get a hold of what this city's key demos are (I know Victoria is known as an old-folks city) but I don't know its movie-going population as well as my old town. The fact that it was about 2/3 First Man (at one theatre... it was playing at the second theatre as well but it doesn't have reserved seating) bodes well for 10M this weekend I think. 

Edited October 12, 2018 by DAJK

[Eric Duncan]

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday	Friday
A Wrinke In Time		4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1469	3607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Small Foot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569
A Star Is Born	9,115	11,383	22,641	21,501
First Man	654	909	3,610	7,586
Goosebumps 2	300	631	1,733	3,615
Bad Times at the El Royale	264	481	1,257	3,350
*4pm-12am

 

 

Upcoming releases

Movie/Day	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday
Halloween	1535	1659	2260	2155
Indivisible	0	0	0	5
Bohemian	254	281	358	302
Nutcracker	0	45	103	52
Fantastic Beasts	1	31	220	208

[DAJK]

Silver City and Cineplex Odeon 10:30AM update:

 

Friday Business

First Man IMAX - 98 tickets sold (6 for 1:00, 15 for 4:00, 75 for 7:00, 2 for 10:00)

 

First Man regular - 44 tickets sold (5 for 1:00, 0 for 4:00, 33 for 7:00, 6 for 10:00) 

El Royale - 6 tickets sold (matinees are empty, 4 for 7:00, 2 for 10:00) but considering how walk-up based this was last night, I doubt pre-sales here really indicate so much doom and gloom quite yet. 

[Porthos]

FB2 tickets are going on sale early at a couple of chains and no one saw fit to tag me?

 

It's like y'alls don't want all that overly detailed info.

 

====

 

Just found out by happenstance that a few chains are selling tickets.  I'll fire up the spreadsheet tonight and possibly make a report tonight, but more likely tomorrow.

 

FWIW, Cinemark doesn't have listings yet.  Only Regal and Studio Movie Grill do locally.

Edited October 13, 2018 by Porthos

[Porthos]

You know, something tells me I wasn't the only one to be surprised to hear that tickets have gone on sale at some theaters.

 

Why do I say that?

 

Oh.  No reason.

 

Tickets sold since (apparently)  yesterday (10/11):  71

 

No, that's not the number of tickets sold at one particular theater.  That's the number of tickets sold in the entire Greater Sacramento region!

 

Yeah.  Guessing word isn't out yet after all.

 

====

 

Only about a third of the theaters locally have any listings at all (Regal, Studio Movie Grill, and the local independent True IMAX theater).  Most of them are very tentative schedules to boot.  A couple tickets here.  Maybe three or four there.  Out of the heavy hitters, only the always-hopping SMG showed any real life with 12 tickets sold for one showing.

 

Fun fact though.  That total would have been dramatically less except for the fact that one showing at the Regal owned UA Olympus Pointe 12 up in Roseville inexplicably had 27 tickets sold for one showing.  It's a semi-popular theater, but it's not exactly in the A-list. 

 

I reckon a bunch of local HP fans got word of the tickets being sold and bought some group tickets.

 

Either that, or it's one of the weirder cases of clustering I've seen in a while.

 

Anywho, not going to make any sort of report, obviously.  But I think I will file away the information as a sort of compare and contrast when some chains start selling tickets early (ala Deadpool 2).  Might be interesting to see if there is any sort of pattern on pure word-of-mouth for pre-pre-ticket sales.

Edited October 13, 2018 by Porthos

[TwoMisfits]

Probably not a good sign for First Man that Goosebumps has already jumped it at 2pm on Saturday on MT.com (remember, this is the previous 24 hours of sales)...

 

30.5% Star is Born, A

18.3% Venom

11.2% Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween

11.1% First Man

5.9% Smallfoot

Edited October 13, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[Boxofficerules]

How's Halloween looking next week?

[el sid]

I'm new to this 'Trailer Impact' stuff from proboxoffice.com but because Halloween is released in a few days, the presales for FB 2 have started and I'm interested in all of the listed films (and of course also their box office runs) I'll post it here:

Top Three Trailers with Highest Recall Score Among Moviegoing Audiences - Moviegoers tell us the trailers they most recall seeing at their most recent visit to a cinema, among films opening in the next 10 weeks:

1. Halloween (last week it was ASIB)
2. Fantastic Beasts 2 (Venom)
3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (Halloween)

Top Three Trailers with Highest Cinema Interest Among Moviegoing Audiences - Moviegoers tell us the wide release titles they’re most likely to see at a cinema, based on trailers recently played at theaters, among films opening in the next 10 week:

1. Fantastic Beasts 2 - 61.9% who saw the trailer that week say they intend to see it in theaters (same)
2. Creed II  - 54.5% (Ralph)
3. Ralph Breaks the Internet - 53.8% (Venom)

Edited October 14, 2018 by el sid