The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Barnack]

10 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Aren't you comparing MT to Pulse? They don't have to match, especially not every hour.

By mistake.

[dxmatrixdt]

cookie monster

[La Binoche]

Why is ASIB randomly exploding on MT today and pulling so far ahead of Venom? 

[DAJK]

19 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

Why is ASIB randomly exploding on MT today and pulling so far ahead of Venom? 

WOM baby

 

edit: not trying to imply WOM on Venom is bad. But ASIB is fantastic  

Edited October 11, 2018 by DAJK

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, EduardoMoraes said:

1 . A Star is Born 39.7%
2. Venom 22.7%
3. Smallfoot 4.4%
4. Night School 3.4%
5. Aravindha Sametha 3.2%

What is going on?

Good taste 

[dxmatrixdt]

cookie monster

[Legion Again]

Well, I’m much more interested in the Wed dailies than I expected to be.

[dxmatrixdt]

only 3,510 locations for Ghostbusters 2

after last weekend saw Star/Born reach 3,686 and Venom 4,250

it is getting packed...

> NEW RELEASES 1 - First Man Universal 3,600 - - 1 2 - Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween Sony / Columbia 3,510 - - 1 3 - Bad Times At The El Royale Fox 2,800 - - 1 9 - Bigger Freestyle Releasing 58 - - 1 11 - Jane and Emma Excel 22 - - 1 13 84 The Happy Prince Sony Classics 8 - - 1 > EXPANDING 6 48 The Hate U Give Fox 200 +164 +455.6% 2 7 43 The Old Man & the Gun Fox Searchlight 160 +111 +226.5% 3 > DECLINING 4 13 Peppermint STX Entertainment 301 -512 -63.0% 6 5 20 The Wife Sony Classics 201 -157 -43.9% 9 8 21 Unbroken: Path to Redemption Pure Flix 124 -211 -63.0% 5 10 16 Little Women (2018) Pinnacle Peak 47 -404 -89.6% 3 12 41 God Bless the Broken Road Freestyle Releasing 19 -34 -64.2% 6

[efialtes76]

6 hours ago, La Binoche said:

Why is ASIB randomly exploding on MT today and pulling so far ahead of Venom? 

Because ASIB is a good movie and Venom...

[KeepItU25071906]

10 hours ago, EduardoMoraes said:

1 . A Star is Born 39.7%
2. Venom 22.7%
3. Smallfoot 4.4%
4. Night School 3.4%
5. Aravindha Sametha 3.2%

1 . A Star is Born 45.9%
2. Venom  17.2%
3. Goosepumbs 2  4,1%
4. Aravindha Sametha 4%

5. Smallfoot 3.9%

 

 

First Man is still out(

Edited October 11, 2018 by KeepItU25071906

[TwoMisfits]

8 hours ago, La Binoche said:

Why is ASIB randomly exploding on MT today and pulling so far ahead of Venom? 

Older women movies tend to higher presale (to actual daily gross) in general, higher presale in general on MT.com, and definitely sell more than usual for Wed/Thurs weeknights where MOMS Groups and Women's Clubs tend to have their outings...

 

So, I don't think it's a sign ASIB beat Venom, but a sign it will be closer for the day...

[filmlover]

It's not a question of "if" A Star is Born will eventually start making more per day/weekend than Venom but a question of "when."

[dxmatrixdt]

# of theaters	out of 20	total shows
Bad Times	20	87	6.93%
First Man	20	137	10.92%
Goose	20	152	12.11%
Star/Born	20	163	12.99%
Venom	20	259	20.64%
Hellfest	13	27	2.15%
Night School	20	98	7.81%
Smallfoot	20	103	8.21%
House/Clock	16	65	5.18%
Simple Favor	16	46	3.67%
Predator	5	7	0.56%
White Boy	3	7	0.56%
The Nun	11	41	3.27%
Crazy Rich	15	49	3.90%
Christopher	7	14	1.12%
		1255

 

Edited October 11, 2018 by gravestonedt

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

48 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Older women movies tend to higher presale (to actual daily gross) in general, higher presale in general on MT.com, and definitely sell more than usual for Wed/Thurs weeknights where MOMS Groups and Women's Clubs tend to have their outings...

 

So, I don't think it's a sign ASIB beat Venom, but a sign it will be closer for the day...

Something similar to Mamma Mia/Equalizer 2 I think where Mamma Mia had a huge gap on MT.

 

But ASIB should pass Venom in dailies soon. 

[dxmatrixdt]

theater count predix...

 

4,250	Venom		4,250		Venom
3,686	Star/Born		3,686		Star/Born
3,019	Night School		2,719	(-300)	Night School
4,131	Smallfoot		3,831	(-300)	Smallfoot
3,456	House/Clock		2,856	(-600)	House/Clock
2,408	Simple Favor		1,708	(-700)	Simple Favor
2,264	The Nun		1,364	(-900)	The Nun
2,297	Hellfest		1,097	(-1200)	Hellfest
1,466	Crazy		966	(-500)	Crazy
1,643	Predator		643	(-1000)	Predator
880	White Boy		280	(-600)	White Boy
813	Peppermint		301	(-512)
36	Hate U Give		200
412	Searching		212	(-212)
361	Mission 6		261	(-100)
533	The Meg		333	(-200)
422	Fahrenheit		222	(-200)
451	Little Women		47	(-404)
335	Unbroken		124	(-211)
1,638	Robin		438	(-1200)
34,501			25,538
			3,510		Goosebumps
			3,686		First Man
			2,800		Bad Times
			35,534

[dxmatrixdt]

preview predictions

 

1.35 - First Man

0.80 - Goosebumps

0.60 - Bad TImes

Edited October 11, 2018 by gravestonedt

[Eric Loves Rey]

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday	Friday
A Wrinke In Time		4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1469	3607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Small Foot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569
A Star Is Born	9,115	11,383	22,641	21,501
First Man	654	909	3,610
Goosebumps 2	300	631	1,733
Bad Times at the El Royale	264	481	1,257
*4pm-12am

 

 

Upcoming releases

Movie/Day	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday
Halloween	1535	1659	2260
Bohemian	254	281	358
Nutcracker	0	45	103
Fantastic Beasts	1	31	220

[MaxAggressor]

 

[el sid]

15 minutes of Pulse four hours ago:
First Man: 56 (was also clearly #1 of the new releases in the morning), no good comparison but The Equalizer 2 had 82
Goosebumps 2: 34 - far behind The House with a Clock which had 83 same day and time of the day
Bad Times: 20
Halloween: 23

And 15 minutes of Pulse two hours ago:
First Man: 89 – not bad now
Goosebumps 2: 43 – I think the reviews are hurting, The House with a Clock had 84, Christopher Robin 97, Smallfoot 66 all same day and time of the day
Bad Times: 30
Halloween: 32
 

With the very good reviews and the very probably good WOM and an older audience I can hardly imagine that First Man lands under 20M. And for such a theme and critical reception that's anyway pretty disappointing. Hopefully the domestic total will be more pleasant.

PS: Often 5 minutes of counting (e.g. from 9:00am – 9:05am) are ca. 15 minutes of Pulse (shows the sold tickets from e.g. 8:50am-9:04am) but to be on the safe side when the next blockbuster like Halloween comes I will from now on always count the 15 minutes.

[LegendaryBen]

After looking through those Fandango presales chart, First Man is comparing similarly to Sicario 2 and Skyscraper. Unless there is some state or benefit that is inflating those presales, I can't see it opening less than $20M. I know that I'll get a lot of backlash for this but $25M isn't out of the question.

 

As for Goosebumps 2, it's 33% below Smallfoot. For it being a sequel, it should be at least 80% of those sales. I'd be surprised if beat out First Man this weekend unless walkups surge dramatically.

 

For Bad Times, it'll open slightly below White Boy Rick based on those comparisons. In fact, an opening closer to The Counselor isn't out of the question.