The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Deep Wang]

On 2/4/2019 at 11:51 AM, Deep Wang said:

@IronJimbo  @JamesCameronScholar

 

Alita's presales are actually pretty good!  Since presales double the week of,

lets just assume this is going to do at least 500k - that means that of the films I have data for, this would put it right between Emoji Movie and Orient Express.  Those opened to 24m and 28m respectively.  Next up would be Jumanji's 569k/36m opening weekend.

 

11 minutes ago, Litio said:

I knew it

 

Yes, you were right, but I wasn't wrong.

[Deep Wang]

8 minutes ago, chuck0 said:

sooo.... it went to 1m? do you have a comparison that matches? Man i really hope that this is not a blip and ends up similar to Valerian! (though i mean even when using that and doing a multiplier it would open quite a bit above current tracking)

 

So that would put Alita right next to Coco.  

 

I don't see this doing a Valerian, but I also don't see it going at high as Coco, or WPOTA either.  As you can see Wonder and Girls Trip both did more in presales and made less on OW, so don't assume it's going to breakout either.

 

Who the fuck knows?

 

Here's my current prediction:

 

T - 8m

F - 7.04m

S - 9.86m

S - 7.29m

M - 3.65m

3 day - 24.19m

4 day - 27.84m

5 day - 35.84m

 

 

 

 

 

 

[efialtes76]

1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

 

So that would put Alita right next to Coco.  

 

I don't see this doing a Valerian, but I also don't see it going at high as Coco, or WPOTA either.  As you can see Wonder and Girls Trip both did more in presales and made less on OW, so don't assume it's going to breakout either.

 

Who the fuck knows?

 

Here's my current prediction:

 

T - 8m

F - 7.04m

S - 9.86m

S - 7.29m

M - 3.65m

3 day - 24.19m

4 day - 27.84m

5 day - 35.84m

 

 

 

 

 

 

And HTTYD3? 

[Deep Wang]

1 minute ago, efialtes76 said:

And HTTYD3? 

 

oops, edited my post.

 

[efialtes76]

22 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

oops, edited my post.

 

Thanks. 

142k to 286k.

Is good? 

[MrGlass2]

38 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Here's my current prediction:

What about CM? O/U GOTG2?

[Deep Wang]

54 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

What about CM? O/U GOTG2?

 

At this point, I dunno.  I want to see the presales start rapidly advancing before I make any proclamations. 

 

I'm still thinking $130m or so right now for sure, and we shall see how it progresses as it gets closer.

 

BATB was at 3.27m on 3/7, so it did like 67% of it's presales in the last 10 days before release.  So, we will just have to see how it goes.  

Edited February 13, 2019 by Deep Wang

[Joyous Legion]

54 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

What about CM? O/U GOTG2?

Only needs to add 20% in the next 2 and a half week for the customary last week doubling to bring it in line with or above GOtG2/BatB.

 

[Deep Wang]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

Only needs to add 20% in the next 2 and a half week for the customary last week doubling to bring it in line with or above GOtG2/BatB.

 

Well, to be fair, as much as I preach about that, the bigger that number is, the harder it is too double.  SW sure as shit isn't going to double 25m or so in tickets is it?

 

GOTG increased about 41% from Tuesday to Thursday.  

[Joyous Legion]

30 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Well, to be fair, as much as I preach about that, the bigger that number is, the harder it is too double.  SW sure as shit isn't going to double 25m or so in tickets is it?

 

GOTG increased about 41% from Tuesday to Thursday.  

Ah, gotcha. But if I’m reading the chart correctly, the last actual observation or BatB is 4.1M from 7 days out? Leaving aside the last week behavior, increasing 20% over the next 2 and change weeks would match that, which seems pretty healthy.

[ThomasNicole]

Even if CM debuts with $ 130M, it should get $ 400M DOM since isn't a sequel

 

But i think it will be higher than GOTGV2, something like $ 155 - 160M opening

[efialtes76]

39 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Well, to be fair, as much as I preach about that, the bigger that number is, the harder it is too double.  SW sure as shit isn't going to double 25m or so in tickets is it?

 

GOTG increased about 41% from Tuesday to Thursday.  

HTTYD3 increased a 100% from last week. 

How much could increase next week? 

[John Marston]

How are people seeing the top sellers on Movietickets and Fandango now? 

[John Marston]

How are people seeing the top sellers on Movietickets and Fandango now? 

[grim22]

Can't wait to go watch Gore Verbinski's Superhero movie this week

 

 

[MrGlass2]

1 hour ago, John Marston said:

How are people seeing the top sellers on Movietickets and Fandango now? 

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/MT_track.txt

2019-02-13 04:00:32.989672 UTC
1	17.2%	What Men Want
2	16.3%	The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part
3	11.1%	Cold Pursuit
4	5.9%	The Upside
5	5.4%	Glass

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_past24hours.txt

 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-02-11 23:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	15.644%	8315	The Lego Movie 2 The Second Part
2	14.181%	7537	What Men Want
3	09.430%	5012	Alita Battle Angel
4	09.424%	5009	Isnt It Romantic
5	07.302%	3881	Cold Pursuit
6	04.478%	2380	The Upside
7	03.991%	2121	Glass (2019)
8	03.825%	2033	The Prodigy (2019)
9	03.197%	1699	Happy Death Day 2U
10	02.598%	1381	Green Book
...
18	01.144%	608	The Wandering Earth

[LeoC]

On 1/24/2019 at 7:29 AM, Deep Wang said:

Hm...

 

KWWBK - 66k

S - 31k

 

MB - 23k

 

WMW - 21k

 

HTTYD - 40k

 

CM - 2.5m

 

On 2/4/2019 at 11:28 AM, Deep Wang said:

CP - 23k

LM2 - 346k

WMW - 121k

 

HDD2U - 10k

IIR - 17k

A - 253k

 

HTTYD - 142k

 

CM - 2.9m(+410k in last 12 days)

 

 

6 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

HDD2U - 124k

IIR - 282k

A - 1m

 

HTTYD3 - 286k

 

CM - 3.4m

01/24    2.5m

02/04   2.9m (+410k in 12 days)

02/12    3.4m (+500k in 8 days)

 

Should be able to do at least 4.4m by the end of Feb, right? 

Edited February 13, 2019 by LeoC
typo

[filmlover]

Happy Death Day 2U is opening nowhere within 30 miles of me (I live within that Parkland radius where it was pulled).

[dxmatrixdt]

so is predicting results for movies still a go?

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	81	7393	10616	30.36%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              38

 

.4735x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 23 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

 

Day T-23 Comp:

 

IW:        82 tickets sold [1 sellout/116 showings |   4318/11125 seats left  | 61.19% sold]