The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric the Minion]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

Been meaning to ask, for the movies with Thurs numbers are those also theough midnight? Or only through when previews start?

Through midnight

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	195	11747	18664	37.06%

 

Total Showings Added Today:       39 [includes 11 non-reserved seating showings]

Total Seats Added Today:          2515

Total Seats Sold Today:               802

 

1.1661x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 2 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

.5702x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 2 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

1.2085x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 2 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to DP2's 29 days]

1.3677x as many tickets sold as Solo 2 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Solo's 20 days]

1.7979x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 2 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to JW2's 22 days]

2.6970x as many tickets sold as Ant-Man and the Wasp 2 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to AM2's 18 days]

2.8685x as many tickets sold as Venom 2 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Venom's 21 days]

1.9717x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 3 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days]

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.

 

Also, see spoiler box for different comps with BP, without the new theater in town as well as the stat bloc for Captain Marvel without the extra theatre tracking info.

 

Day T-2 Comp:

 

BP:            766 tickets sold [7 sellouts/111 showings |   5080/10359 seats left  | 50.96% sold]

IW:            691 tickets sold [8 sellouts/162 showings |   3875/14671 seats left  | 73.59% sold]

DP2:          725 tickets sold [0 sellouts/141 showings |    9796/14890 seats left | 34.21% sold]

Solo:         236 tickets sold [1 sellout/135 showings   |   8879/13380 seats left  | 33.64% sold]

JW2:          551 tickets sold [0 sellouts/145 showings |  10171/13595 seats left | 25.19% sold]

AM2:         268 tickets sold [0 sellouts/111 showings |   8605/10896 seats left  | 21.03% sold]

Venom:     n/a tickets sold [0 sellouts/117 showings  | 10486/12744 seats left  | 17.72% sold]

FB2:          396 tickets sold [0 sellouts/124 showings | 11831/15116 seats left  | 21.73% sold]

CM (adj)*: 700 tickets sold [1 sellouts/195 showings |   8938/15094 seats left  | 40.78% sold]

* CM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

====

 

Further BP Comp inside Spoiler Box:

 

Spoiler

Due to having more reserved seating info now than when BP debuted in Sacramento, two more BP-only comp charts:

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 Days and counting

(Exact same theaters/reserved seating info as Black Panther)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	184	8146	13495	40.08%

 

Total Showings Added Today:       39 [includes 28 showings counted as non-reserved seating for these charts]

Total Seats Added Today:            581

Total Seats Sold Today:               615

 

1.0322x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 2 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

 

---

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 Days and counting

(Equivalent reserved seating info as Black Panther plus Regal Delta Shores which opened in the interim)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	195	8939	15094	40.78%

 

Total Showings Added Today:       39 [includes 28 showings counted as non-reserved seating for these charts]

Total Seats Added Today:            581

Total Seats Sold Today:               700

 

1.1661x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 2 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

Edited March 7, 2019 by Porthos
Fixed a data entry error of nine seats

[Porthos]

On 3/5/2019 at 4:58 PM, Thanos Legion said:

200+ Thursday Endgame showings for Sacramento is coming

 

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	195	11747	18664	37.06%

 

Total Showings Added Today:       39 [includes 11 non-reserved seating showings]

Total Seats Added Today:          2515

Total Seats Sold Today:               802

 

You might not have to wait 'till Endgame to see that 200+ Thr showings in Sactown. 

Edited March 7, 2019 by Porthos
Fixing quoted post

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel has now blown past the final tracked total for Solo, here in Sacramento, at the equivalent theaters tracked:

 

Solo at stop of tracking*:  5789 tickets sold (14.1m nationally)

Captain Marvel, so far:      6156 tickets sold (???) (not including new tracking sources)

* approx 30 minutes sooner than other films, but, eh in this case

 

It's also knocking on the door of JW2:

 

Fallen Kingdom at stop of tracking:  6228 tickets sold (15.3m nationally).

 

And there are still two days to go.  Well, one and three quarters (I stop tracking around 60 to 90 minutes before the main showtimes of the night, more or less). 

 

 

Edited March 6, 2019 by Porthos

[Joyous Legion]

31 minutes ago, Porthos said:

1.1661x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 2 days before release. 1.166*25.2=29.4

.5702x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 2 days before release. .5702*39=22.24

1.2085x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 2 days before release. 1.2085*18.6=22.5

1.3677x as many tickets sold as Solo 2 days before release. 1.3677*14.1=19.3

1.7979x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 2 days before release. 1.7979*15.3=27.5

2.6970x as many tickets sold as Ant-Man and the Wasp 2 days before release. 2.697*11.5= 31 (lol)

2.8685x as many tickets sold as Venom 2 days before release. 2.8685*10=28.7

1.9717x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 3 days before release. 1.9717*9.1=17.9

Some of these are way too high, some are way too low, some are summer, some franchises particularly walkup friendly or not, theaters not exactly the same, 2 days left, etc. Use with caution. Still, figured people would be interested in the numbers anyway, so there they are.

Edited March 6, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[JB33]

LMAO at Shivampa's disbelief reaction. That's perfect.

[Porthos]

43 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Day T-2 Comp:

 

BP:            766 tickets sold [7 sellouts/111 showings |   5080/10359 seats left  | 50.96% sold]

IW:            691 tickets sold [8 sellouts/162 showings |   3875/14671 seats left  | 73.59% sold]

DP2:          725 tickets sold [0 sellouts/141 showings |    9796/14890 seats left | 34.21% sold]

Solo:         236 tickets sold [1 sellout/135 showings   |   8879/13380 seats left  | 33.64% sold]

JW2:          551 tickets sold [0 sellouts/145 showings |  10171/13595 seats left | 25.19% sold]

AM2:         268 tickets sold [0 sellouts/111 showings |   8605/10896 seats left  | 21.03% sold]

Venom:     n/a tickets sold [0 sellouts/117 showings  | 10486/12744 seats left  | 17.72% sold]

FB2:          396 tickets sold [0 sellouts/124 showings | 11831/15116 seats left  | 21.73% sold]

CM (adj)*: 700 tickets sold [1 sellouts/195 showings |   8938/15094 seats left  | 40.78% sold]

* CM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

Gonna be away from the board for about an hour plus or so, but did want to highlight a couple of things before I took off.

 

First. BP outsold CM (adJ) tonight for the first time in a while.  And did it in roughly 57% of the showings to boot (80 reserved seating showings for BP and 140  [adj] for CM). BP finds more ways to impress each and every time I look at it. 👍

 

Secondly, CM finally did beat IW here locally.  By a whopping nine tickets.  But IW had 70 plus percent of its seats already sold and CM... didn't.

 

But CM still managed to handily hold off the fast charging JW2, despite have many many more seats sold already.  The 50 extra showings help, of course.  But, still got to sell those seats.

 

So it's pretty clear to me that CM is gonna do a huge number on Thr since many other folks here are chiming in that they're seeing more showings than BP for their theaters (though I'm sure it's offset by not nearly the same percentage of seats sold, if Sacto [and Fandango for that matter] is any indication).

 

How this impacts the internal multi remains to be seen. Really, I think that's the biggest unanswered question going forward.

 

 

Edited March 6, 2019 by Porthos

[RealLyre]

those numbers are amazing, @Porthos do you think those presales would be a good representation for the rest of the presales nation wide like how CM passed BP on Tuesday on Fandango, as in do you think the Thursday previews number will be a lot closer to 25M (Black Panther's) than anyone expected  or is it just the people of Sacramento showing love for their home girl and skewing the data  

 

 

 

Edited March 6, 2019 by RealLyre
.

[Porthos]

17 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Some of these are way too high, some are way too low, some are summer, some franchises particularly walkup friendly or not, theaters not exactly the same, 2 days left, etc. Use with caution. Still, figured people would be interested in the numbers anyway, so there they are.

Got time to very quickly comment on the FB2 comp (17.9)m.

 

For whatever reason, FB2 massively over-performed here in Sacramento. Like, by a lot.

 

I don't know if the horrid snowstorm out in the east coast skewed things, or we just love our wizards something fierce out here.  Probably a little of column A and a lot of column B.  But it, along to a lesser degree DP2, are the big 'misses' for my comps.  And I still insist to this day that the lack of 3D helps explain DP2, along with it being in so many more theaters locally.

Also befitting its status as more of a family flick, AM2 exploded on its day of release, selling nearly 2000 tickets on Thr. So that 'lol' comp WILL come down.

[Porthos]

28 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

those numbers are amazing, @Porthos do you think those presales would be a good representation for the rest of the presales nation wide like how CM passed BP on Tuesday on Fandango, as in do you think the Thursday previews number will be a lot closer to 25M (Black Panther's) than anyone expected  or is it just the people of Sacramento showing love for their home girl and skewing the data  

 

 

 

(had a couple of quick minutes to pop back in and answer this)

 

Gun to my head?  As of right now and not what I think when more data comes in? 

 

22m, plus or minus. Almost entirely down to reports of other towns have more showings locally than BP (along with supporting data from Fandango) and the local IW comp.

 

20.5m, plus or minus, if Sacto is over-performing.  Which is very possible.

 

...

 

I've been known to be wrong before.  Many times, in fact.

 

====

 

Also that 2D:3D split is still hella low: 

 

2D: 164

3D:   31 (15.9%)

 

BP, on the other hand, had 25.7% 3D penetration locally.

 

If that is true nationally (and some board members chimed in that they saw similar things) that WILL matter with the sheer number of tickets being sold.

Edited March 6, 2019 by Porthos

[TwoMisfits]

I know we're all focused on one movie but...

Atom is offering Wonder Park tickets for $5 all in for any show...that's gonna help spike what would have probably been an atrocious opening weekend.  How much?  We'll have to see next weekend:)...

 

EDIT: And they suckered me into 4 Saturday night 3d tickets...my teens wanted to shop the mall while I hit the theater with my boys...and for $20, how could I refuse (that's gonna be a price that "moves" families, since it includes the fees and 3d, too...it was smart getting it out 10 days ahead)...code is BOOMER for anyone looking to buy the same...

Edited March 6, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[TwoMisfits]

6 hours ago, Porthos said:

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	195	11747	18673	37.09%

 

Total Showings Added Today:       39 [includes 11 non-reserved seating showings]

Total Seats Added Today:          2524

Total Seats Sold Today:               811

 

1.1661x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 2 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

.5702x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 2 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

1.2085x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 2 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to DP2's 29 days]

1.3677x as many tickets sold as Solo 2 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Solo's 20 days]

1.7979x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 2 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to JW2's 22 days]

2.6970x as many tickets sold as Ant-Man and the Wasp 2 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to AM2's 18 days]

2.8685x as many tickets sold as Venom 2 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Venom's 21 days]

1.9717x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 3 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days]

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.

 

Also, see spoiler box for different comps with BP, without the new theater in town as well as the stat bloc for Captain Marvel without the extra theatre tracking info.

 

Day T-2 Comp:

 

BP:            766 tickets sold [7 sellouts/111 showings |   5080/10359 seats left  | 50.96% sold]

IW:            691 tickets sold [8 sellouts/162 showings |   3875/14671 seats left  | 73.59% sold]

DP2:          725 tickets sold [0 sellouts/141 showings |    9796/14890 seats left | 34.21% sold]

Solo:         236 tickets sold [1 sellout/135 showings   |   8879/13380 seats left  | 33.64% sold]

JW2:          551 tickets sold [0 sellouts/145 showings |  10171/13595 seats left | 25.19% sold]

AM2:         268 tickets sold [0 sellouts/111 showings |   8605/10896 seats left  | 21.03% sold]

Venom:     n/a tickets sold [0 sellouts/117 showings  | 10486/12744 seats left  | 17.72% sold]

FB2:          396 tickets sold [0 sellouts/124 showings | 11831/15116 seats left  | 21.73% sold]

CM (adj)*: 700 tickets sold [1 sellouts/195 showings |   8938/15094 seats left  | 40.78% sold]

* CM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

====

 

Further BP Comp inside Spoiler Box:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Due to having more reserved seating info now than when BP debuted in Sacramento, two more BP-only comp charts:

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 Days and counting

(Exact same theaters/reserved seating info as Black Panther)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	184	8146	13495	40.08%

 

Total Showings Added Today:       39 [includes 28 showings counted as non-reserved seating for these charts]

Total Seats Added Today:            581

Total Seats Sold Today:               615

 

1.0322x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 2 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

 

---

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 Days and counting

(Equivalent reserved seating info as Black Panther plus Regal Delta Shores which opened in the interim)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	195	8939	15094	40.78%

 

Total Showings Added Today:       39 [includes 28 showings counted as non-reserved seating for these charts]

Total Seats Added Today:            581

Total Seats Sold Today:               700

 

1.1661x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 2 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

So my favorite comp is now $257 *.5702 or $146M...still love this comp for this movie...so that's my new interim number til Thursday and we see the final comparison between the 2:)...

[Yandereprime101189]

MaRvEl WaNtS mOnEy!

[Rebeccas]

I must say the number of Thursday night screenings for this is kind of wild. Haven't seen this many showtimes since IW lol

[TalismanRing]

41 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So my favorite comp is now $257 *.5702 or $146M...still love this comp for this movie...so that's my new interim number til Thursday and we see the final comparison between the 2:)...

These comps are just or Thur previews so .57x39 = $22.23m.  CM should have a higher internal multiplier for a non sequel doing $16.77m less in previews. 

 

Even if it just had CW's internal instead of say BP's that would be $159m

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Rebeccas said:

I must say the number of Thursday night screenings for this is kind of wild. Haven't seen this many showtimes since IW lol

It helps that the marketplace and theaters are parched for a big movie.  The next highest movie will be around $15m for the w/e

[kitik]

20 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

I must say the number of Thursday night screenings for this is kind of wild.

 

Like I mentioned about a billion pages ago in the Captain Marvel thread (even though it was actually just yesterday), the huge number of showtimes on Thursday and also on Friday/Saturday at many theaters should lessen the usual big movie sellout/spillover effect we sometimes see that inflate Sunday/Monday/2ndWeekend numbers.

 

The gigantic number of showtimes at many theaters means there won't be many sellouts. If you want to go see the movie on Saturday, you should be able to walkup and get a ticket.

[FlashMaster659]

CM starting to catch up to BP again on MT

Edited March 6, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[kitik]

45 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

CM starting to catch up to BP again on MT

 

I don't understand how such a comparison is useful.

[el sid]

Pulse 8:35-8:49 EST:
 

CM: 650/15 – yesterday 351/15, 85% up; Halloween had 158/15 minutes, BR 142/15, Fantastic Beasts 2 196/15, Glass 113/15 all same day and time of the day
 

And Pulse 10:35-10:49 EST:

CM: 884/15 (+/- 5 tickets, it was nearly uncountable from time to time) – yesterday (where I counted a bit later in the day so it's in disfavor of CM today) it were 635/15, 39% up; BR had 201/15 minutes, FB2 309/15, Glass 156/15 all same day and time of the day.

Overall still very good.