5-day Weekend #s: DM3 99M, BD 29.97M, WW 24.07M, TF5 24.05M, Cars 3 14.2M, House 11.9M

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

I just got a notification on my phone to say that Emma Watson bomb The Circle has gone straight to Netflix here in the U.K. 

 

Yikes! That's a first! 

Where is Noctis at to set you straight 

[WrathOfHan]

6 minutes ago, The Panda said:

Looks like Minions reception did take its toll.  Should open around 85 - 95m, we'll see how legs pan out.

It'll be lucky to get a 3x:

 

Spider-Man is going to take a huge chunk of the audience next weekend.

Valerian is being marketed towards kids and already has positive reactions from critics.

The Emoji Movie is at the end of July.

Older audiences have the first two, Apes (great reviews), Dunkirk (which looks to be a winner), Atomic Blonde (good reviews from SXSW), The Big Sick (having an insane run in limited right now), and Girls Trip.

 

Its reception is basically the same as Cars 3, and that probably isn't getting a 3x. DM would probably be much more frontloaded as well.

Edited June 30, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[a2k]

Secret Life of Pets made 5.3/104.3 (Mult 19.68)

Minions 6.2/115.3 (Mult 18.59)

https://www.hsx.com/forum/forum.php?id=3&pid=425235

 

and Cars3 was 53.7/2.8 = 19.18

 

SLOP gives DM3 81

MINIONS gives DM3 76

CARS3 gives 79

[narniadis]

4 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

What are you anticipating the OD to be?

I am thinking 30 full Friday for

30 + 27  (-10%) + 28.5 (+5%....is this possible due to Canada Day? Just guessing) = 85.5 ow (90 high end, 80+ low end)

 

DM2 had 4.7 Tue previews and 35 Wed OD. But things have gotten front-loaded since.

 

I've been expecting an OD similar to DM2 and was expecting 4.5 for previews. I will say that without a better preview it's gonna be hard to do more than 100-103 or so. 

 

I may be very wrong, nothing unusual this summer 

[Zakiyyah6]

I can't imagine DM3 getting 100mil off of that late show opening. It's technically a 5th film in a franchise, it needed bigger numbers because it will be frontloaded.

Edited June 30, 2017 by Zakiyyah6

[CoolioD1]

7 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I just got a notification on my phone to say that Emma Watson bomb The Circle has gone straight to Netflix here in the U.K. 

 

Yikes! That's a first! 

lmao. i might actually watch it now.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Secret Life of Pets made 5.3/104.3 (Mult 19.68)

Minions 6.2/115.3 (Mult 18.59)

https://www.hsx.com/forum/forum.php?id=3&pid=425235

 

and Cars3 was 53.7/2.8 = 19.18

 

SLOP gives DM3 81

MINIONS gives DM3 76

CARS3 gives 79

So basically the best case scenario is around 83-85M given that Sunday will have soft drops.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, CoolioD1 said:

lmao. i might actually watch it now.

It's fucking hilarious. Literally nothing in The Circle makes any sense whatsoever.

[FantasticBeasts]

12 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

lmao, and people were INSISTING this wouldn't go under 100M this weekend.

Let's not start the Illumination prediction talk.

You where arguing until the release day that Pets wouldn't be go higher than $80m.

After all we have no final numbers in order to jump in conclusions about who got this right.

[a2k]

Has an animation opened on Canada Day weekend recently...for comps?

[MattW]

I was expecting it to match pets at least. DM2 opened roughly on par 

with minions (165/166 for the first full week) with a lower preview, tho 2013 was a long time ago for preview numbers. 

 

I'll guess 90-95 given all that. 

Edited June 30, 2017 by MattW

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, FantasticBeasts said:

Let's not start the Illumination prediction talk.

You where arguing until the release day that Pets wouldn't be go higher than $80m.

After all we have no final numbers in order to jump in conclusions about who got this right.

Why would DM3 stray from other Illumination films and animated franchises? 100M is basically impossible with these previews.

[titanic2187]

after the 2016 talking animals and animation craze, 2017 seem a much more calmer performance for animation, none of the animation break $200m at this point......while last year we had zootopia and dory.

 

This is much like 2010 and 2011, where 2010 were filled with animation boom but took a step back in 2011

[a2k]

15 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

So basically the best case scenario is around 83-85M given that Sunday will have soft drops.

 

Yeah that is likely.

 

And this year the best legs for an animation so far have been a non-sequel (not a surprise)...Boss Baby with 3.46x

Smurfs3 has 3.38x and Lego Bat has 3.32x. (Smurfs3 put up much smaller numbers than the other two films though).

Cars3 gonna do 2.8x if it does about 150.

 

So I think 3.3x is the best-case multi.

Edited June 30, 2017 by a2knet

[narniadis]

2 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

after the 2016 talking animals and animation craze, 2017 seem a much more calmer performance for animation, none of the animation break $200m at this point......while last year we had zootopia and dory.

 

This is much like 2010 and 2011, where 2010 were filled with animation boom but took a step back in 2011

 

Yeah @YourMother and I talked a lot about that last year, particularly since the last time a cool down happened it also involved a Cars film. 

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

 

Yeah that is likely.

 

And this year the best legs for an animation so far have been a non-sequel (not a surprise)...Boss Baby with 3.46x

Smurfs3 has 3.38x and Lego Bat has 3.32x. (Smurfs3 put up much smaller numbers than the other two films though).

Cars3 gonna do 2.8x if it does about 150.

 

So I think 3.3x is the best-case multi.

Off an 85M weekend, it would need a 2.96x to surpass the first's gross. If it's 80M, it needs a 3.14x

[FantasticBeasts]

10 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Why would DM3 stray from other Illumination films and animated franchises? 100M is basically impossible with these previews.

What I am assuming is that Minions made a lot of non family audience lose interest which is basically the target audience in previews for animation films.

I still believe though that it will perform equally strong with the previouss ones with families.

I am currently lowering my prediction from +100m to 90-95m but not lower.

What my point was though is that there is no need being a smartass just because you got a prediction right.

Each one of us has their ups and downs and especially for Illumination, your record is worse than most of the people here.

Edited June 30, 2017 by FantasticBeasts

[WrathOfHan]

The House did 800k (You posted in the wrong thread @baumer ). If it follows Rough Night, it'll do a little over 9M, but again, the Sunday drop should be soft.

[Zakiyyah6]

Of course none of the films are a Zootopia or especially a Dory. None of the films except Lego Batman has had a Zootopia style critical reception or had trailers that looked as good/appealing as Zootopia's trailers. Lego Batman was too niche to capitalize on it's reviews.

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, FantasticBeasts said:

What I am assuming is that Minions made a lot of non family audience lose interest which is basically the target audience in previews for animation films.

I still believe though that it will perform equally strong with the previews ones with families.

I am currently lowering my prediction from +100m to 90-95m but not lower.

What my point was though is that there is no need being a smartass just because you got a prediction right.

Each one of us has their ups and downs and especially for Illumination, your record is worse than most of the people here.