Weekend Thread 7/7-7/9 | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SMH 117M, DM3 34M, BD 12.5M, WW 10.1M, TF5 6.3M, Biggus Dickus 3.65

[baumer]

Here's a terrific link for the list of all time preview (note...not midnight) grosses.

 

All time preview grosses

[Valonqar]

Amazing OD! My family is going to contribute to Saturday increase in a big way. 

 

 

Edited July 7, 2017 by Valonqar

[baumer]

So if Spiderman were to follow IM3, it would do about 170M OW.  

[Barnack]

28 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

 Fifty Shades Darker did less than its predecessor domestically and internationally.  How were those trailer views not a lie?  And I still think that the Mummy's trailer views were a lie even with it's international gross.

 

What do you mean by lie ?, the movie had one of the biggest global opening, almost 150m, it is an other example of an high trailer view high first weekend box office.

 

The correlation between trailers views and first weekend is extremely strong and easy to look at:

 

http://www.boxofficereport.com/trailerviews/owyoutuberatios.html

 

If you copy paste it in Excel and graph them you will see two line that follow each others almost exactly, a strong R2 over 0.65 (while using a domestic metric to a world views one)

[ChipDerby]

Jurassic World (6/11/15) - $18.5 million
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (7PM, 5/4/17) - $17 million
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part I (11/21/14) - $17 million
Beauty and the Beast (6PM, 3/16/17) - $16.3 million
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part II (7PM, 11/20/15) - $16 million
Furious 7 (4/2/15) - $15.8 million
Iron Man 3 (8PM, 5/2/13) - $15.6 million

 

$174 mil OW, $147 mil OW, $102 mil OW, $174 mil OW, $121 mil OW, $146 mil OW, $208 mil OW

 

Yes, all of those made over this preview number, but this could possibly touch $140 mil OW.

[The Panda]

15.4 really ups the possible range, it's a good number.

 

Best Case (but not likely) Scenario: 145m (WW IM)

 

Worst Case (but not likely) Scenario: 92m (BvS IM)

 

A Suicide Squad IM would put it right at 100m, but that was also later in August, so SM:H may fair better than that.

 

It's hard to really tell until we have a Friday number, I'd reckon around 100m is its floor and around 130m is the ceiling.

Edited July 7, 2017 by The Panda

[TalismanRing]

9 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Kinda ironic how that film mirrored his life at the time.

 

RDJ says it was making the movie that accelerated his drug use.  But his parents were both addicts and his father started sharing drugs with him as age six so it was a long build up.

[Cochofles]

As far as I'm concerned, nothing RDJ has done after his comeback will ever compare to his The Pick-Up Artist /Less Than Zero / Heart & Souls / Soapdish / Chances Are / Chaplin era. I don't care what Rotten Tomatoes and comic book fans say; those films he made back then were GLORIOUS, and in my opinion, a much better showcase for his talent and his charm than a million Iron Mans and Sherlock Holmes will ever be.  

[CJohn]

3 minutes ago, The Panda said:

15.4 really ups the possible range, it's a good number.

 

Best Case (but not likely) Scenario: 145m (WW IM)

 

Worst Case (but not likely) Scenario: 94m (BvS IM)

 

A Suicide Squad IM would put it right at 100m, but that was also later in August, so SM:H may fair better than that.

 

It's hard to really tell until we have a Friday number, I'd reckon around 100m is its floor and around 130m is the ceiling.

I think it lands at right around 130M.

[Valonqar]

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

So if Spiderman were to follow IM3, it would do about 170M OW.  

 

Nothing would please me more than see Spiderman take that one out. Was bored out of my mind with IM3. 

[MovieMan89]

Knew that tracking was way too low. With that preview number and sure to be good WOM quickly spreading, my $150-155 prediction may be right on. 

Edited July 7, 2017 by MovieMan89

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, Cochofles said:

As far as I'm concerned, nothing RDJ has done after his comeback will ever compare to his The Pick-Up Artist /Less Than Zero / Heart & Souls / Soapdish / Chances Are / Chaplin era. I don't care what Rotten Tomatoes and comic book fans say; those films he made back then were GLORIOUS, and in my opinion, a much better showcase for his talent and his charm than a million Iron Mans and Sherlock Holmes will ever be.  

 

Nah, RDJ's charisma was SO good in Ally McBeal...as was Calista Flockhart's...that was a season to remember...it's too bad he had to be written out b/c he relapsed...

[Ethan Hunt]

GotG puts at about 130M. 

 

Sounds about right. Maybe a little more front loaded

Edited July 7, 2017 by Ethan Hunt

[efialtes76]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Knew that tracking was way too low. With that preview number and sure to be good WOM quickly spreading, my $150-155 prediction may be right on. 

Homecoming won't make $150M OW.

[Cochofles]

So...has superhero movie fatigue been mentioned?  

[TalismanRing]

Just now, Cochofles said:

As far as I'm concerned, nothing RDJ has done after his comeback will ever compare to his The Pick-Up Artist /Less Than Zero / Heart & Souls / Soapdish / Chances Are / Chaplin era. I don't care what Rotten Tomatoes and comic book fans say; those films he made back then were GLORIOUS, and in my opinion, a much better showcase for his talent and his charm than a million Iron Mans and Sherlock Holmes will ever be.  

 

No love for the Ally McBeal/Wonder Boys era?  (I recently binge watched his season of AM on Netflix before it was pulled - his Larry Paul is still fantastic)

 

Still the Kiss Kiss Bang Bang/ Zodiac / Iron Man/ Tropic Of Thunder/Sherlock era hasn't been too shabby.

[Cochofles]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Nah, RDJ's charisma was SO good in Ally McBeal...as was Calista Flockhart's...that was a season to remember...it's too bad he had to be written out b/c he relapsed...

 

Yeah. He was really good in that show.

[The Panda]

4 minutes ago, ChipMunky said:

Jurassic World (6/11/15) - $18.5 million
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (7PM, 5/4/17) - $17 million
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part I (11/21/14) - $17 million
Beauty and the Beast (6PM, 3/16/17) - $16.3 million
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part II (7PM, 11/20/15) - $16 million
Furious 7 (4/2/15) - $15.8 million
Iron Man 3 (8PM, 5/2/13) - $15.6 million

 

$174 mil OW, $147 mil OW, $102 mil OW, $174 mil OW, $121 mil OW, $146 mil OW, $208 mil OW

 

Yes, all of those made over this preview number, but this could possibly touch $140 mil OW.

 

None of those are really good comps because they're either not in the Summer months (which means a strong OD/Preview ratio) or in JW's case it was a movie that wasn't going to be highly frontloaded (SM:H is going to experience more frontloading due to the Marvel and Spidey canvases).

 

Ratio wise, I think Guardians of the Galaxy or Suicide Squad are the two best comps due to genre, fanbases and opening in deep summer.

 

SS puts it on track for around a 100m OW.

 

GOTG puts it on track for around 130m OW.

 

A large range, so we'll have to see how the OD plays out.  I'd expect somewhere right in between those.

[AniNate]

Gonna be a fun next few weeks. Good blockbusters and good indie films all opening up.

[Giesi]

Just now, Cochofles said:

So...has superhero movie fatigue been mentioned?  

It's a huge drop from 2007's Spider Man 3

just kidding, awesome numbers for the movie, I might check it out