Weekend Thread 7/7-7/9 | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SMH 117M, DM3 34M, BD 12.5M, WW 10.1M, TF5 6.3M, Biggus Dickus 3.65

[ChipDerby]

2 minutes ago, The Panda said:

 

None of those are really good comps because they're either not in the Summer months (which means a strong OD/Preview ratio) or in JW's case it was a movie that wasn't going to be highly frontloaded (SM:H is going to experience more frontloading due to the Marvel and Spidey canvases).

 

Ratio wise, I think Guardians of the Galaxy or Suicide Squad are the two best comps due to genre, fanbases and opening in deep summer.

 

SS puts it on track for around a 100m OW.

 

GOTG puts it on track for around 130m OW.

 

A large range, so we'll have to see how the OD plays out.  I'd expect somewhere right in between those.

 

My comps are just as valid as yours, imo.

[JohnnyGossamer]

19 minutes ago, The Panda said:

15.4 really ups the possible range, it's a good number.

 

Best Case (but not likely) Scenario: 145m (WW IM)

 

Worst Case (but not likely) Scenario: 94m (BvS IM)

 

A Suicide Squad IM would put it right at 100m, but that was also later in August, so SM:H may fair better than that.

 

It's hard to really tell until we have a Friday number, I'd reckon around 100m is its floor and around 130m is the ceiling.

Right now, my thinking $125M to $150M. Walk up business will be great for this one... Already performed well above the initially expected $10M+ preview number with $15M+. I don't see this one all of the sudden having a much worse IM than just about every MCU summer release that preceded it. WOM seems very good/great and is spreading very, very fast. Obviously bullish here but past MCU flicks OW IM support my numbers.

Edited July 7, 2017 by JohnnyGossamer

[Cochofles]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

 

No love for the Ally McBeal/Wonder Boys era?  (I recently binge watched his season of AM on Netflix before it was pulled - his Larry Paul is still fantastic)

 

Still the Kiss Kiss Bang Bang/ Zodiac / Iron Man/ Tropic Of Thunder/Sherlock era hasn't been too shabby.

 

I really liked RDJ in AMcB, WB, and TOT. However, his Chances Are/ Heart & Souls / Less Than Zero  time was so memorable (to me at least) that it has made everything else seem just ok.  I jost LOVE those three films in particular.  

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, The Panda said:

 

None of those are really good comps because they're either not in the Summer months (which means a strong OD/Preview ratio) or in JW's case it was a movie that wasn't going to be highly frontloaded (SM:H is going to experience more frontloading due to the Marvel and Spidey canvases).

 

Ratio wise, I think Guardians of the Galaxy or Suicide Squad are the two best comps due to genre, fanbases and opening in deep summer.

 

SS puts it on track for around a 100m OW.

 

GOTG puts it on track for around 130m OW.

 

A large range, so we'll have to see how the OD plays out.  I'd expect somewhere right in between those.

 

 

SS is a poor comp with the free Thur preview tickets which truly front loaded the w/e

[Barnack]

One thing that could go well for Spider-Man, is being spider man 6, third reboot, etc.... people were not necessarily excited/enthusiast for it (or maybe like I suspected all that who asked for it online chatter mean little and often come from people that end up watching it anyway, they even talk as if they will watch it).

 

But if that was the case it could have really good legs. It is a 6 movie in a short time yes, but being a reboot it has 0 resistance (it is even better if you have not seen the previous one in fact).

Edited July 7, 2017 by Barnack

[The Panda]

These are really good preview numbers that almost sets 100m in stone.

 

I just wouldn't get carried away like everyone always does when an MCU film opens.

[MrPink]

Not seeing lower than 115. 140 is the absolute max I could see. More likely around 125 or so

[JohnnyGossamer]

8 minutes ago, The Panda said:

 

None of those are really good comps because they're either not in the Summer months (which means a strong OD/Preview ratio) or in JW's case it was a movie that wasn't going to be highly frontloaded (SM:H is going to experience more frontloading due to the Marvel and Spidey canvases).

 

Ratio wise, I think Guardians of the Galaxy or Suicide Squad are the two best comps due to genre, fanbases and opening in deep summer.

 

SS puts it on track for around a 100m OW.

 

GOTG puts it on track for around 130m OW.

 

A large range, so we'll have to see how the OD plays out.  I'd expect somewhere right in between those.

You keep dismissing the promotion that inflated SS early previews. It's not a viable comparison. Not to mention Spidey being far more family friendly.

[The Panda]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

 

 

SS is a poor comp with the free Thur preview tickets which truly front loaded the w/e

 

That compensates with SM:H being a Spidey film with Iron Man in it.  Again, SS is the low end of a wide possible range, I didn't say it would happen, I said it was a possibility.

 

I just personally wouldn't expect anymore than the 130m range because the comps you're dealing with there are movies that (by nature) are going to be less frontloaded internally than Spidey.

 

However, we don't have any really great comparisons, especially given how volatile OW/Preview ratios can be.

[Valonqar]

12 minutes ago, Cochofles said:

So...has superhero movie fatigue been mentioned?  

 

There is fatigue. They aren't opening at 200M anymore. 

[Biggestgeekever]

4 minutes ago, MrPink said:

Not seeing lower than 115. 140 is the absolute max I could see. More likely around 125 or so

Pretty much my thinking with $120-130M being most likely. If it's on the high end, then the race for the summer domestic crown gets very interesting.

[The Panda]

Just now, JohnnyGossamer said:

You keep dismissing the promotion that inflated SS early previews. It's not a viable comparison. Not to mention Spidey being far more family friendly.

 

Family friendly movies (not family movies) don't have deflated Thursday previews like others might because it's Summer.

 

Lol, people are jumping on me like I'm saying I think this movie will bomb or something because I think the high end is 130m OW (and a 140m OW ceiling).

 

This is a great number for it, I just don't think pulling a better IM than Guardians or Ant-Man are likely due to Spidey being a built up franchise (and having Iron Man all over the marketing).

[John Marston]

right now 125m looks right

[a2k]

Can't see Spidey going lower than 7.5x which gives 115.5 ow.

On the high-end thinking 8.5x for 131 ow.

 

8x/123 ow in the middle.

 

Edited July 7, 2017 by a2knet

[MrPink]

Just now, Biggestgeekever said:

Pretty much my thinking with $120-130M being most likely. If it's on the high end, then the race for the summer domestic crown gets very interesting.

 

Legs wide hard to imagine more than 3x so it needs to open around 130.

 

Seems WW will beat Guardians 2 if it has a  relatively normal Friday jump today

[JohnnyGossamer]

10 minutes ago, The Panda said:

These are really good preview numbers that almost sets 100m in stone.

 

I just wouldn't get carried away like everyone always does when an MCU film opens.

Eh? When GotGV2 did $17M most here didn't expect $146M+, right? That was just two months ago. I don't think folks get as carried away as they once did... Too much MCU data to reference.

[TalismanRing]

6 minutes ago, The Panda said:

 

Family friendly movies (not family movies) don't have deflated Thursday previews like others might because it's Summer.

 

Lol, people are jumping on me like I'm saying I think this movie will bomb or something because I think the high end is 130m OW (and a 140m OW ceiling).

 

This is a great number for it, I just don't think pulling a better IM than Guardians or Ant-Man are likely due to Spidey being a built up franchise (and having Iron Man all over the marketing).

 

No, it's not because of the GOTG comp and your projected high end.  It's because you said SS was one of the two best comps and also gave a $100m ow as a reasonable outcome.

 

 

Edited July 7, 2017 by TalismanRing

[Fancyarcher]

37 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Kinda ironic how that film mirrored his life at the time.

 

Though something tells me that was unintentional at the time, it it spooky in retrospect, and I say that as someone wasn't even around back then, but was familiar with RDJ's drug problem, which became a big issue in the 90's. Glad he bounced back. 

 

[Kalo]

1 hour ago, fmpro said:

Just came back from my show with my 13 year old boy...

 

I absolutely loved it. I went in almost spoiler free and boy did it throw me some curveballs.. This is the Spider-Man from the comics that i read in the 80's and 90's. Keaton was awesome and totally one of the best MCU villans. Hands down.. loved the highschool theme but i'm still eager to see him grow up and see him in a more adult universe

Hard to keep on writing without spoiling so..

 

8,5/10

 

On par with SM1 and SM2 and way way way better than the rest

 

Agreed it was fantastic, I can't believe I walked out of the theater wondering if I liked it better than the original Spider-Man!

[DAR]

23 minutes ago, Cochofles said:

So...has superhero movie fatigue been mentioned?  

No but I did say earlier I think the gap between this and Thor is actually going to be perfect for audiences.