Dunkirk Tuesday Numbers: Dunkirk 4.48...WW 575K

[ZattMurdock]

36 minutes ago, UrosepsisFace said:

SM:H did better than "good", "adequate", "nice". However it wasn't "legendary", "astonishing", or "uncanny". Obviously, it falls in the range of "very good", "great", and "amazing".  

I never said legendary. The word I've used was amazing. And got crucified for that. Legendary is what Wonder Woman, The Avengers, The Dark Knight and Spider-Man did. Maybe Deadpool. But that's literally my whole point. Decent, good, ok, fine just doesn't fit with a film that is going for a 2.8 multiplier and fighting for the 1st spot as far as superhero films go. 

 

 

29 minutes ago, UrosepsisFace said:

Btw, WOM is something made up by the users here to explain a good multiplier without actually realizing other factors that are involved. Sure, good WOM can help a movie's run, but many other factors are also involved. Both Spider-Man and Wonder Woman could have achieved insane word of mouth, but the multiplier will be drastically different because even if both movies had fanboys ranting and raving about it, eventually, that great WOM will hit a limit and that's due to all kinds of other stuff. For instance, my buddy told everybody at work to watch SM:H because it was the best of an already very good series. Some of my coworkers, even though they adored the first two Spider-Man movies, and even though they believed this new one could be better...they didn't want to watch it because it was like the 6th film...I told them Wonder Woman was meh and I slept through it, but even though they don't watch Super-Hero movies, they still wanted to go because it was the first Wonder Woman movie. Yeah, anecdotal evidence, but you don't need the wildest imagination to believe such conversations happened across America.

 

I honestly think that Wonder Woman's perfect storm was greatly helped by its calendar. The release date for WW was just flawless. Meanwhile, Homecoming had to face Apes in the second weekend, AND Dunkirk on its second weekend, where it lost a big chunk of IMAX screens. After that, the legs and wom started to really kick in, and it kind of boggles my mind that experienced people here don't realize that. No, it's not making WW numbers. That's a legendary status as far as box office runs go. It's not making GotG's multiplier either, that was crazy. But it's doing great, very good, amazing for a reboot. Especially after recovering after facing both Apes and Dunkirk. 

Edited August 3, 2017 by iJackSparrow

[The Stingray]

I'd call +300m for SMH great, considering it is like the 8th Spider-Man movie in as many years.
 

[Lordmandeep]

Homecoming looks to finish about 320 million I think

 

 

 

 

 

[Ms Lady Hawk]

3 hours ago, iJackSparrow said:

I honestly think that Wonder Woman's perfect storm was greatly helped by its calendar. The release date for WW was just flawless. Meanwhile, Homecoming had to face Apes in the second weekend, AND Dunkirk on its second weekend, where it lost a big chunk of IMAX screens. After that, the legs and wom started to really kick in, and it kind of boggles my mind that experienced people here don't realize that. No, it's not making WW numbers. That's a legendary status as far as box office runs go. It's not making GotG's multiplier either, that was crazy. But it's doing great, very good, amazing for a reboot. Especially after recovering after facing both Apes and Dunkirk. 

 

While I agree with the general point that you're making, I take issue with one part. One of the many marvelous accomplishments of WW's run is that she faced competition and just kept on strutting. She never missed a beat. No one had any idea that Cars and Transformers would perform so poorly. WW also had to face DM3 and Spider-Man too. She has plenty of competition. Certainly more formidable competition than Dunkirk and ..... Apes, which people here have declared a box office failure. Nevertheless, you are right on the fact that Spidey is having a very good run at the box office. I don't see how anyone could deny that unless they were expecting Avengers type numbers. A run which ends at 320+ million and 850+WW is terrific.  

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, Diana Prince said:

 

While I agree with the general point that you're making, I take issue with one part. One of the many marvelous accomplishments of WW's run is that she faced competition and just kept on strutting. She never missed a beat. No one had any idea that Cars and Transformers would perform so poorly. WW also had to face DM3 and Spider-Man too. She has plenty of competition. Certainly more formidable competition than Dunkirk and ..... Apes, which people here have declared a box office failure. Nevertheless, you are right on the fact that Spidey is having a very good run at the box office. I don't see how anyone could deny that unless they were expecting Avengers type numbers. A run which ends at 320+ million and 850+WW is terrific.  

My point is that those movies showed up late on its run. WW didn't lost IMAX screens until SMH, and that was more than one month after the film was released. Don't get me wrong though, Wonder Woman is easily the most special film of the genre since The Avengers, and that's why it's making what it's making, what I'm saying is that the release date plays a part on that storm as well. You are correct on WW facing tougher competition tha SMH, DM3 and SMH are indeed tougher, TF could be tougher, same for Cars. The problem with SMH is that the tough competition (the ones that theaters are literally obligated to make room for some films, like IMAX deal with WB which benefited both WW in the beginning and now Dunkirk). In other hand, Homecoming has literally zero competition throughout all August, and I'm banking that it's making at least around $30m during this month, with a good shot of aiming for more.

 

 

[DlAMONDZ]

Spider-Man + MCU and Iron Man 

 

If Batman had that much going for it and only made 320 ya'll would be calling it a failure

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, DlAMONDZ said:

Spider-Man + MCU and Iron Man 

 

If Batman had that much going for it and only made 320 ya'll would be calling it a failure

It depends. If Homecoming started with an OW of $170 and made a 2x multiplier while also getting critically panned, that's a failure. If Reeves Batman does exactly the same as Homecoming while getting critically acclaimed, which would show on its legs, that's a success.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

24 minutes ago, DlAMONDZ said:

Spider-Man + MCU and Iron Man 

 

If Batman had that much going for it and only made 320 ya'll would be calling it a failure

Different scenarios. Batman's last two solo films had domestic grosses of $400M+ while Spider-Man's last two solo films have been nowhere near the $300M mark (though yes inflation does mean TASM would have made around $300M in today's numbers). Iron Man's appearance in Homecoming definitely boosted the Opening Weekend however it does little to help its subsequent legs. I wasn't here when Civil War had its box office run but I would imagine most would agree that one of the reasons it was so frontloaded was that it was basically sold to the public as an Avengers film (or at least a film with Iron Man as co-star). With the characters being known quantities at this point you're not going to win over that many new fans in the subsequent weeks. Big opening but big drop-off. (Which btw I fully expect for Infinity War and Avengers 4 too). 

 

We saw that with Homecoming too in its 2nd Weekend with that 62% drop-off because of fans rushing to see it opening weekend (even its opening weekend was frontloaded). But the fact it has rebounded quite considerably with better than average MCU legs despite having characters that have appeared in 5 plus films is a testament to the WoM. $320M was in line with people's predictions however if I were to guess I bet most people didn't have a 2.8x multiplier with that guess. 

 

And no after what BvS ended up with in North America only people who want to hate DC would consider $320M for Batman a failure unless it had a terrible box office multiplier. 

Edited August 3, 2017 by Darth Lehnsherr

[Cochofles]

1 hour ago, DlAMONDZ said:

Spider-Man + MCU and Iron Man 

 

If Batman had that much going for it and only made 320 ya'll would be calling it a failure

Exactly.

What makes me laugh now is that, all of a sudden, there is a narrative akin to "Wonder Woman had no competition."

Hmm.

Ok.

She deflected everything thrown at her and even survived the *mighty* Spidey, but she had no competition.

Ok.

The reality is this: lots of people underestimated WW, and it developed truly astonishing word of mouth, of which there is actual proof  there in black and white.

Just look at those holds; nine weeks out and none of the weekly drops has been above 43 %.

Look at that multiplier.

So I find it interesting that now WW had no competition?

Ok.

 

Meanwhile, some people wildly overestimated SM:H, jumped the gun in terms of its alleged "insane word of mouth," called it the most family friendly/crowd-pleasing SM ever/the best Spidey of all time/the SM film that truly captured the essence of SM...and yet it opened to a number that was ok...good..solid...but far from spectacular [for a film that had so much going for it].

And more notably, none of its drops/holds yet have demonstrated this allegedly insane word of mouth (The second week drop was hilariously bad for a film that did not open to an insanely high number) or this amazingly compelling movie experience that is captivating families and kids.

 

SM:H is a solid performer. Not amazing, not spectacular, not astonishing, not fantastic.

Just solid.

A solid hit. Nothing more than that.

Sony is happy.

 

 

 

 

Edited August 3, 2017 by Cochofles

[MyMovieCanBeatUpYourMovie]

58 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

We saw that with Homecoming too in its 2nd Weekend with that 62% drop-off because of fans rushing to see it opening weekend (even its opening weekend was frontloaded). But the fact it has rebounded quite considerably with better than average MCU legs despite having characters that have appeared in 5 plus films is a testament to the WoM. $320M was in line with people's predictions however if I were to guess I bet most people didn't have a 2.8x multiplier with that guess. 

What are the best overall legs for a film that fell over 60% in its second weekend?  I'm curious if Homecoming is atypical in that sense or falling in line with how most films that drop big in their second weekend perform.

[YM!]

When you look at Homecoming's performance, either an $800M+ grosser or a $1B grosser for Sony is helpful. From the looks of a report they were expecting around $750M WW since Marvel got a benefit if it passed that benchmark. Spider-Man is their only guaranteed hit left, and even though I'd like to see Venom and Black Cat in the MCU, they really need spinoffs to keep their film division alive. Their last non Spider-Man $100M+ grosser after Baby Driver were Ghostbusters and Passengers. Both of those were disappointing to the studio. The combined Domestic and Worldwide total of SPA's last three films (I am counting Angry Birds since it's sequel counts as one) will do more than the three this year together. Hopefully Jumanji can be a big hit like I'm predicting.

Edited August 3, 2017 by YourMother

[m3racer123]

30 minutes ago, Cochofles said:

Exactly.

What makes me laugh now is that, all of a sudden, there is a narrative akin to "Wonder Woman had no competition."

Hmm.

Ok.

She deflected everything thrown at her and even survived the *mighty* Spidey, but she had no competition.

Ok.

The reality is this: lots of people underestimated WW, and it developed truly astonishing word of mouth, of which there is actual proof  there in black and white.

Just look at those holds; nine weeks out and none of the weekly drops has been above 43 %.

Look at that multiplier.

So I find it interesting that now WW had no competition?

Ok.

I haven't seen anyone undermining WW's incredible run (admittedly I don't use the forums very much), for me these are the 5 most impressive of the year so far:

 

1. Get Out

2. Wonder Woman

3. Beauty and the Beast

4. Split

5. Baby Driver/Dunkirk/Spider-Man (all depending on late legs)

Edited August 3, 2017 by m3racer123

[redfirebird2008]

1 hour ago, iJackSparrow said:

My point is that those movies showed up late on its run. WW didn't lost IMAX screens until SMH, and that was more than one month after the film was released. Don't get me wrong though, Wonder Woman is easily the most special film of the genre since The Avengers, and that's why it's making what it's making, what I'm saying is that the release date plays a part on that storm as well. You are correct on WW facing tougher competition tha SMH, DM3 and SMH are indeed tougher, TF could be tougher, same for Cars. The problem with SMH is that the tough competition (the ones that theaters are literally obligated to make room for some films, like IMAX deal with WB which benefited both WW in the beginning and now Dunkirk). In other hand, Homecoming has literally zero competition throughout all August, and I'm banking that it's making at least around $30m during this month, with a good shot of aiming for more.

 

 

 

In the domestic market, Wonder Woman lost IMAX after one week. Mummy took those screens. Cars 3 took them from Mummy the next week. Transformers 5 took them from Cars 3 the next week. 

 

Spidey actually had a 2 week run in domestic IMAX, a week longer than Wonder Woman. 

[TwoMisfits]

43 minutes ago, MyMovieCanBeatUpYourMovie said:

What are the best overall legs for a film that fell over 60% in its second weekend?  I'm curious if Homecoming is atypical in that sense or falling in line with how most films that drop big in their second weekend perform.

I can't find a supers movie with a +60% 2nd weekend drop that got anywhere close to a 2.9x chance...most died between 2.4 or 2.5x (and a few died much lower), so it is pretty atypical...

 

(Now, I'm using Mojo's biggest 2nd weekend drop list, so it's only as good as they are:)...

 

So, this part of the run would seemingly be unprecedented...or a synonym that I know ijack likes - amazing!:)

Edited August 3, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 hours ago, iJackSparrow said:

My point is that those movies showed up late on its run. WW didn't lost IMAX screens until SMH, and that was more than one month after the film was released. Don't get me wrong though, Wonder Woman is easily the most special film of the genre since The Avengers, and that's why it's making what it's making, what I'm saying is that the release date plays a part on that storm as well. You are correct on WW facing tougher competition tha SMH, DM3 and SMH are indeed tougher, TF could be tougher, same for Cars. The problem with SMH is that the tough competition (the ones that theaters are literally obligated to make room for some films, like IMAX deal with WB which benefited both WW in the beginning and now Dunkirk). In other hand, Homecoming has literally zero competition throughout all August, and I'm banking that it's making at least around $30m during this month, with a good shot of aiming for more.

 

 

Come on, man. SMH competition wasn't that great. War and Dunkirk were not even remotely directly competition to Homecoming. Not to mention, neither was all that big. Cars 3, Transformers 5, Despicable Me 3, All Eyes On Me, Mummy all opened to $30M+ in in June. And, Baby Driver did pretty well too in late June.

[YM!]

10 hours ago, Subzero said:

 

 

At this point I don't see DOM hitting 330M, I see it hitting IM1 number or possible $320M.

But yes OS is still the question, depending on China ? Japan I would say about $30-50M  they love him over there.

Don't worry. Your club is locked. Spidey opens the week before Apes in China.

[redfirebird2008]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I can't find a supers movie with a +60% 2nd weekend drop that got anywhere close to a 2.9x chance...most died between 2.4 or 2.5x (and a few died much lower), so it is pretty atypical...

 

(Now, I'm using Mojo's biggest 2nd weekend drop list, so it's only as good as they are:)...

 

TDKR was 2.78 I think. Pretty good legs after the midnight shows accounted for nearly 20% of opening weekend. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

Don't worry. Your club is locked. Spidey opens the week before Apes in China.

Which club? Under SM3 WW?

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

TDKR was 2.78 I think. Pretty good legs after the midnight shows accounted for nearly 20% of opening weekend. 

I believe you have found the highest one:)...so if Spidey beats that, we can agree to let iJack be happy:)...

 

Otherwise known as "this number lets me win my $325M bet", so for me, that would be amazing!  (I have the $300M one in the bag, so I'm already happy, but I want to win them all like I did for WW:)...

Edited August 3, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[YM!]

Just now, JohnnyGossamer said:

Which club? Under SM3 WW?

Yes. For the looks of it. Spider-Man is looking to do $320M domestic and $410M OS minus China. Unless it has a huge OW, it won't get past $890M WW that SM3 had.