Weekend Thread | Estimates: T:R 57.08M, DH2 29.65M, MOTOE 28.68M, ABMC 11.47M, 32.4K PTA for Lady Bird (Deadline, p.46) | The box office is good again!

[MCKillswitch123]

Wow, pretty big increase for Ragnarok. Drop should be at around 52-54% for the weekend. 300M is locked at this point, even if Justice League eviscerates it next week (which should happen). The Marvel machine is ridiculous - their 3 movies from 2017 will all have 300+ DOM and possibly 800M+ WW. And the 300M+ DOM streak will probably eat into 2018 with Black Panther and Infinity War (not predicting 800M WW for Panther, though). And this is also the 4th live-action superhero tentpole in a row to make those numbers (Guardians, Wonder Woman, Homecoming and now this), with JLA making it 5 in a row. Logan being a small overperformer on its own too helps drown out that it didn't quite make the same as the others. So, say it with me again kids: "superhero movie fatigue!!!!".

 

But the standouts have got to be Murder On The Orient Express and Daddy's Home 2. Both of them opening at around 30M is amazing. And, while next week's drop should be brutal, I do expect both of them to have solid legs from here on out. Small, small shot at a 95-100M finish for both of them, actually.

 

Also, Lady Bird at a 31K PTA in 37 theaters....... Godsmacking. That's insane. Three Billboards with a killer OW as well. And Bad Moms also deserves props for its awesome hold.

[baumer]

Amazing increase for Thor. Fucking hell.

[Premium George]

35 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Thats not true. About 50% people thought it would do less than 300 as per this club

 

 

Even if most people think thor will do 300 after first teaser, that's a plus point for marvel marketing.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

11 minutes ago, damnitgeorge08 said:

Even if most people think thor will do 300 after first teaser, that's a plus point for marvel marketing.

Yeah Thor: Ragnarok's box office run for has been Marvel's most impressive so far since Guardians of the Galaxy. No Avengers bump, no Iron Man bump yet it's going to outgross its predecessor by $100M+ in North America alone. 

Edited November 12, 2017 by Darth Lehnsherr

[aabattery]

9 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Yeah Thor: Ragnarok's box office run for has been Marvel's most impressive so far since Guardians of the Galaxy. No Avengers bump, no Iron Man bump yet it's going to outgross its predecessor by $100M+ in North America alone. 

 

 It's got that Taika bump.

 

[Boxofficerules]

8 hours ago, a2knet said:

 

If JIGSAW adds 1.5x the weekend more it will end at 39.15m dom which gives a 2.35x multiplier (39.15/16.64).

Giving HDD a better 2x the weekend more (cause it's further into the run putting smaller numbers), it ends with 57.5m dom and a 2.21x multiplier (57.5/26.04).

 

HDD's ow was inflated because of Friday the 13th but did not anticipate JIGSAW having better legs as it was the 8th film of the franchise.

 

Jigsaw has done so much better than I ever thought it would. It had bigger movies coming out on its second weekend.

[SteveJaros]

5 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Great increase for Thor. DS fell by nearly 40% on Sunday due to the holiday effect. Thor will take a similar tumble too, perhaps a bigger one given that its jumps on Fri/Sat were higher. Conversely it could hold better than DS for precisely the same reason. 

 

Btw Thor is doing great in China too. Heading to a phenomenal drop (by China's standards) this weekend

 

I suspect that Thor's numbers are a little inflated this weekend compared to what they'd be if there wasn't a big blockbuster coming out in five days. I bet many are planning on seeing Justice League this coming weekend, so they are squeezing Thor in now before that movie comes out whereas no Justice League and they might have waited until next weekend or sometimes thereafter before seeing TR. 

 

Add it up, and it means i expect TR's legs starting next weekend to be truncated, such that expectations of $300m DOM based on projecting its first two weekends are likely invalid.

Edited November 12, 2017 by SteveJaros

[Rumpot]

5 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Great increase for Thor. DS fell by nearly 40% on Sunday due to the holiday effect. Thor will take a similar tumble too, perhaps a bigger one given that its jumps on Fri/Sat were higher. Conversely it could hold better than DS for precisely the same reason. 

 

Btw Thor is doing great in China too. Heading to a phenomenal drop (by China's standards) this weekend

It will take a tumble for sure, but as I've said I think this is skewing younger and rocking matinees much better than Strange.  That will help it on Sunday which I expect will slightly beat Strange's hold - which was impacted by younger demos probably going towards Trolls instead in addition to the usual season Sunday factors.  Also a look at the weekend for Strange suggests the Veterans day Friday burned off more of its demand

[MCKillswitch123]

12 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

 

I suspect that Thor's numbers are a little inflated this weekend compared to what they'd be if there wasn't a big blockbuster coming out in five days. I bet many are planning on seeing Justice League this coming weekend, so they are squeezing Thor in now before that movie comes out whereas no Justice League and they might have waited until next weekend or sometimes thereafter before seeing TR. 

 

Add it up, and it means i expect TR's legs starting next weekend to be truncated, such that expectations of $300m DOM based on projecting its first two weekends are likely invalid.

You are aware that it'll have 200M+ after two weekends, that even if it drops 65% next weekend (holiday fallout + Justice League) it'll still be at around 250M, and that the weekend after that is Thanksgiving which will help smooth out the drop again (and there may or may not be double features with Coco going on all the way through December, until Star Wars hits and gives Thor a small set of double features of its own)? There's no chance it misses 300M now.

 

Face it bub: your WB > Disney club lost. Justice League has no chance of carrying them to victory alone even if it makes 450M. It's sad, because WB had a fantastic 2017, but Ninjago and 2049 underperforming stopped them dead in their tracks regarding their winning chances.

[Eric is Quiet]

7 hours ago, Arlborn said:

This is great. Thor 3 going over 300M is nuts when you really think about it. Who thought that would happen after TDW?!

 

Just awesome. Taika is a beast.

 

While of course it's important to give credit to the other distributors and companies for their SH movies, it's honestly pretty impressive what Marvel Studios has done this year. Within just one year, they've managed to release three $300M domestic grossers, all from different "franchises." (I know the MCU technically counts as a franchise, but...y'know what I mean.) Has any other studio managed to pull three $300M domestic grosses in just one year?

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

While of course it's important to give credit to the other distributors and companies for their SH movies, it's honestly pretty impressive what Marvel Studios has done this year. Within just one year, they've managed to release three $300M domestic grossers, all from different "franchises." (I know the MCU technically counts as a franchise, but...y'know what I mean.) Has any other studio managed to pull three $300M domestic grosses in just one year?

 

Universal in 2015: FF7, JW and Minions.

[Eric is Quiet]

Just now, Brainbug said:

 

Universal in 2015: FF7, JW and Minions.

I meant to say production company, but that works too I guess.

[MrGlass2]

3 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Has any other studio managed to pull three $300M domestic grosses in just one year?

SM:H counts for Sony/Columbia.

[CJohn]

I am hoping Murder can open over 30M. It is gonna be close.

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

While of course it's important to give credit to the other distributors and companies for their SH movies, it's honestly pretty impressive what Marvel Studios has done this year. Within just one year, they've managed to release three $300M domestic grossers, all from different "franchises." (I know the MCU technically counts as a franchise, but...y'know what I mean.) Has any other studio managed to pull three $300M domestic grosses in just one year?

I’m really impressed by what Marvel has done I think the streak will continue until Ant Man 2. What make it more impressive is that all three have had good legs. In other studio milestones, DC might have 2 $400M films this year.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

I am hoping Murder can open over 30M. It is gonna be close.

$10.75M + $12M + $7.25M (-38%) seems likely imo.

[Brainbug]

Just now, YourMother said:

I’m really impressed by what Marvel has done I think the streak will continue until Ant Man 2. What make it more impressive is that all three have had good legs. In other studio milestones, DC might have 2 $400M films this year.

 

Disney could set an alltime record for this benchmark in 2019: Avengers 4, Toy Story 4, The Lion King, Frozen 2 and ofc Star Wars 9 all have a shot at 400M.

[YM!]

Just now, Brainbug said:

 

Disney could set an alltime record for this benchmark in 2019: Avengers 4, Toy Story 4, The Lion King, Frozen 2 and ofc Star Wars 9 all have a shot at 400M.

Don’t forget Aladdin as well. They may have 6 films over $400M

[fabiopazzo2]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

Disney could set an alltime record for this benchmark in 2019: Avengers 4, Toy Story 4, The Lion King, Frozen 2 and ofc Star Wars 9 all have a shot at 400M.

SW9,Lion King and Frozen over 500M 

[grey ghost]

5 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

SM:H counts for Sony/Columbia.

It's also listed as part of the MCU franchise so it's both.