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That One Girl

5-Day Weekend Thread | Saturday #s (Asgard p.109) - Coco 17.7, Justice League 15.7, Wonder 8.3, Thor: Ragnarok 6.4, Daddy's Home 2 5.3

By That One Girl, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Rthmessiah,

Sat  C 17.7,JL 15.7,W 8.3, T:R 6.4,DH2 5.3
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Ms Lady Hawk Box Office Gold

Ms Lady Hawk

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6 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

I don't understand why anyone is predicting under 400 million for IW.  The curiosity factor and the cast alone will get people into the theatre.  It's going to be an unprecedented cast.  Like, half of Hollywood will shut down just to allow the cast to participate in these films.

Couldn’t agree more. At the very least, it should match AOU. Almost every hero who’s appeared in their cinematic universe is in this. There is something for everyone- as a lot of their heroes are represented. Will be interesting to see how high it can go. 

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Deep Wang Global Phenomenon

Deep Wang

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7 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

I don't understand why anyone is predicting under 400 million for IW.  The curiosity factor and the cast alone will get people into the theatre.  It's going to be an unprecedented cast.  Like, half of Hollywood will shut down just to allow the cast to participate in these films.

Crazy shit happens!

 

I don't think I'm officially predicting under $400m yet, but it honestly wouldn't surprise me.  I really need to see the trailer and see how they plan to sell this.  

 

Honestly, it all just comes down to what you think this will open to since we can guarantee the legs will be between 2.2-2.4.  

 

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MikeQ Box Office Gold

MikeQ

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

WDAS/Pixar Thanksgiving opener multis this decade:

 

Frozen: 4.25x

Moana: 3.02x

Tangled: 2.94x

The Good Dinosaur: 2.23x

 

Considering Tangled and Moana both got strong WOM, Coco will have to have very exceptional WOM to go above 215m. 

It will be interesting to follow and see how Coco does. It could hit around a 3 multiplier like Moana and Tangled and end up with $210-215 million, or leg out more over the holidays given how it seems to be resonating thematically.

 

We do potentially have some evidence that Coco is or will have exceptionally good WOM - though it is hard to tell with any of the measures we have (based on non-probability samples, etc), and certainly they aren't always correlated to box office performance or legs. But, if we take a look at the RT Audience Score and IMDB Rating for the films shortly after they opened, it seems that Coco is being very well received overall.

 

Here were the RT Audience Score and IMDB Rating for Frozen, Moana and Tangled within about a week or so after opening compared to Coco (to make for a relevant comparison to Coco now):

 

RT Audience Score & IMDB Rating About A Week-Ish after Opening

Film — RT Audience Score — IMDB Rating
Frozen —  91% (4.4 rating) — 8.1 
Moana — 93% (4.4 rating) — 8.3 
Tangled — 91% (4.3 rating) — 8.3 
Coco — 97% (4.7 rating) — 9.0 (as of today)


For those curious, here are the current RT Audience Score & IMDB Rating for the films (as of today):

Film — RT Audience Score — IMDB Rating
Frozen — 86% (4.2 rating) — 7.5
Moana — 89% (4.2 rating) — 7.6 
Tangled — 87% (4.1 rating) — 7.8 
 

Of course, just because Coco has such high ratings on RT and IMDB, doesn't mean it will have exceptional legs. Frozen became a cultural phenomenon, and that isn't always easy to predict. I don't think Coco will be a phenomenon like that domestically (it clearly has been in Mexico), but maybe it will still have some very strong legs over the holidays. Who knows... it's all just food for thought. 

 

Peace,

Mike

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SpiritComix Sleeper Hit

SpiritComix

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40 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

I don't understand why anyone is predicting under 400 million for IW.  The curiosity factor and the cast alone will get people into the theatre.  It's going to be an unprecedented cast.  Like, half of Hollywood will shut down just to allow the cast to participate in these films.

Exactly! Some people here are just crazy.... GOTG Vol 2 made almost 400 million, so will AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR make the same amount? Haha! 

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John Harris Sleeper Hit

John Harris

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43 minutes ago, Diana Prince said:

Couldn’t agree more. At the very least, it should match AOU. Almost every hero who’s appeared in their cinematic universe is in this. There is something for everyone- as a lot of their heroes are represented. Will be interesting to see how high it can go. 

To paraphrase Dr Ian Malcolm: Marvel is throwing together every hero they have in a team-up film the likes of which Hollywood has never seen; how can we have any idea what to expect (regarding IW’s ceiling)???

 

May 2018 is gonna be crazy around here!

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

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Just now, RichWS said:

Adjusted:

 

Fast Five - $236.3 million

The Fast and the Furious - $228.0 million

 

giphy.gif

 

 

I searched "xxx 3 gif" into Google trying to find the gif where he escapes the plane. DO NOT TYPE "xxx 3 gif" INTO GOOGLE IMAGES :ohmygod: 

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Fancyarcher Global Phenomenon

Fancyarcher

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Saw Justice League, and well I didn't hate it, but it wasn't exactly anything to write home about either. The league themselves were varying degrees of fine, Flash was annoying and overdone, Cyborg was bland, but I did like Aquaman, and Ben Affleck as Batman again, even if you could tell he was probably through with the role, Gal Gadot has proven to be a solid Wonder Woman too, even if the lack of a better film does affect her performance somewhat, but what really dragged the film down for me was the CGI. God was it bad, and don't even get me started on Steppenwolf. Out of all of the bad recent CBM villains, I think he might be the worse. Talk about "Mr. Evil villain". I will say I did like Superman though, even with his short screentime, it's easily Cavil's best performance of the character. It was cool to see him

actually be bright and use his freeze breath, that was an awesome scene.

 

Overall a mixed bag, but I'm looking forward to the future DC films. Hopefully after Justice League, it's less of a bumpy ride. 

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