5-Day Weekend Thread | Saturday #s (Asgard p.109) - Coco 17.7, Justice League 15.7, Wonder 8.3, Thor: Ragnarok 6.4, Daddy's Home 2 5.3

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Are you sure about that?

 

It was a team up Captain America film, which is what raised the ceiling on what it otherwise would have been, but still not an Avengers films. And I disagree it was marketed as one. The tone of the marketing and the film itself was quite different from the TA films and more in line with the CA films. And it was a heroes v heroes film like BvS, again different than what the Avengers films are. 

 

If nothing else, the name alone doesn't carry the widespread appeal of an Avengers film, because the title was still Captain America. Even changing it to Captain America vs Iron Man may have added some bucks to the BO. 

Edited November 26, 2017 by MovieMan89

[Tauren Warlock]

Does any1 know when the Frozen short will be removed?

[AJG]

1 minute ago, Tauren Warlock said:

Does any1 know when the Frozen short will be removed?

I read it was gonna play on Disney Channel US in a couple of weeks, so maybe after that.

[Tauren Warlock]

My optimistic predictions for Coco.

Dom: $280 million

Worldwide: $900 million

[cannastop]

12 minutes ago, Tauren Warlock said:

My optimistic predictions for Coco.

Dom: $280 million

Worldwide: $900 million

We might actually come close to that $900m, depending on what China does.

 

As for the DOM, I'm going to wait for Monday numbers to make a judgement on legs.

[The Panda]

58 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

It was a team up Captain America film, which is what raised the ceiling on what it otherwise would have been, but still not an Avengers films. And I disagree it was marketed as one. The tone of the marketing and the film itself was quite different from the TA films and more in line with the CA films. And it was a heroes v heroes film like BvS, again different than what the Avengers films are. 

 

If nothing else, the name alone doesn't carry the widespread appeal of an Avengers film, because the title was still Captain America. Even changing it to Captain America vs Iron Man may have added some bucks to the BO. 

That honestly just sounds like fan rationalization for CW and IW imo.

 

CW behaved like a sequel to AoU, not TWS.

[MovieMan89]

Moana DOM is more than a high enough target for Coco to be aiming for. That will require very good legs since the 5 day is 11m lower. 

[Johnny Tran]

15 hours ago, Squadron Leader Tele said:

 

Sure, it could start having great holds. I think what it's done so far is okay holds at best -- not great, not awful. If it drops less than 55% next weekend we can start to talk about good legs (for a CBM). 

I agree with that but maybe sometimes we weigh legs too heavily especially with CBMs. Wonder Woman's legs were amazing off a pretty good OW.  But for the most part, I mean even if this legged it to $300M it'd still be very disappointing.   CBMs are so dependent on the OW.  

[grey ghost]

5 hours ago, RamblinRed said:

BOM are the official studio estimates so those are the ones to go by.

 

What if they over predicted and numbers come down with actuals?

 

Couldn't the Asgardian be closer?

[MovieMan89]

WDAS/Pixar Thanksgiving opener multis this decade:

 

Frozen: 4.25x

Moana: 3.02x

Tangled: 2.94x

The Good Dinosaur: 2.23x

 

Considering Tangled and Moana both got strong WOM, Coco will have to have very exceptional WOM to go above 215m. 

[grey ghost]

7 minutes ago, The Panda said:

That honestly just sounds like fan rationalization for CW and IW imo.

 

CW behaved like a sequel to AoU, not TWS.

CW also behaved like Iron Man 3 and Thor 3. A huge global increase from the second movie.

[WrathOfHan]

http://deadline.com/2017/11/call-me-by-your-name-best-average-darkest-hour-robust-start-specialty-box-office-1202214595/

 

Three Billboards is going into over 1,000 theaters next weekend and not the 750-1,000 range reported last week. That'll go up to 1,500 IMO. No word on how Lady Bird will expand, though I'm also expecting 1,300+ there

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

CW also behaved like Iron Man 3 and Thor 3. A huge global increase from the second movie.

Exactly. CW's performance isn't that out of character based on the pattern for third movies in the sub franchises. 

[JB33]

12 minutes ago, The Panda said:

That honestly just sounds like fan rationalization for CW and IW imo.

 

CW behaved like a sequel to AoU, not TWS.

No it didn't. The only tie to AoU was that the battle of Sokovia was one of the tragic events that led to the Sokovia accords. Half the core Avengers (Thor and Hulk) are elsewhere and the main source of tension between the hero's is Bucky Barnes, aka the Winter Soldier, so the story picks up that storyline from the previous Captain America movie. 

Edited November 27, 2017 by JB33

[tonytr87]

Lady Bird is good, not great if you're not from California or if you don't have nostalgia for where you grew up. Three Billboards works really well as a comedy, works okay as a film about personal loss, and works great as a snapshot of 2017 in rural America. 

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, JB33 said:

No it didn't. The only tie to AoU was that the battle of Sokovia was one of the tragic events that led to the Sokovia accords. Half the core Avengers (Thor and Hulk) are elsewhere and the main source of tension between the hero's is Bucky Barnes, aka the Winter Soldier, so the story picks up that storyline from the previous Captain America movie. 

He meant box office wise.

[tonytr87]

5 minutes ago, JB33 said:

No it didn't. The only tie to AoU was that the battle of Sokovia was one of the tragic events that led to the Sokovia accords. Half the core Avengers (Thor and Hulk) are elsewhere and the main source of tension between the hero's is Bucky Barnes, aka the Winter Soldier, so the story picks up that storyline from the previous Captain America movie. 

 

I think both arguments are correct. We can't pretend that it wasn't primarily a Captain America movie. It was and I'm sure that had an effect. On the other hand the marketing did focus heavily on the team aspect and Age of Ultron did have a so-so response, but even in the wake of that Civil War only made 40-50 mil less.

 

In the end I think it's irrelevant. Given the mostly rapturous response to phase 3 films, I'd expect Infinity War to make more than Civil War. Unless it's downright bad of course. 

Edited November 27, 2017 by tonytr87

[WrathOfHan]

Predictions for next weekend:

 

Coco: 24M

Wonder: 13.4M

Justice League: 13.3M

Three Billboards: 8.6M (I'm expecting 1,500 theaters; 6.1M if the TC is 1,000+ like currently planned)

Thor: Ragnarok: 8.1M
Murder on the Orient Express: 6.1M

Daddy's Home 2: 6M

Lady Bird: 5.7M (I'm expecting 1,300 theaters)

The Star: 2.6M

Roman Israel/A Bad Moms Christmas: 2.3M

[John Marston]

6 minutes ago, JB33 said:

No it didn't. The only tie to AoU was that the battle of Sokovia was one of the tragic events that led to the Sokovia accords. Half the core Avengers (Thor and Hulk) are elsewhere and the main source of tension between the hero's is Bucky Barnes, aka the Winter Soldier, so the story picks up that storyline from the previous Captain America movie. 

 

 

Uh, thats a huge part. The villain and entire  plot of CW followed what happened in AOU

 

 

RDj was also all over the makeketing for CW and was top liked. It also introduced Spider-Man and Black Panther. So yes, CW was definitely more like an Avengers film in

presentation than just a Cap solo film  

Edited November 27, 2017 by John Marston

[MovieMan89]

Ragnarok is set to have an almost identical gross increase from The Dark World as Civil War did from Winter Soldier (+55-57%). CW was not the same appeal as an Avengers film just because of its increase anymore than Ragnarok is.