Weekend Thread | Coco 19M, JL 9.4M, Wonder 9.3M, TDA 6.4M, T:R 6.25M, DH2 5.7M, MOTOE 5M (Deadline estimates) | Bunch of Awardsy stuff making money too

[efialtes76]

Based off midday matinees, Disney/Pixar’s Coco is weekend three looks to rake in between $17.6M-$18M, a 35% ease at 3,748 locations for a running total by Sunday of $135M. That’s 7% behind Moana. 

 

Warner Bros./DC’s Justice League is still in second, poised to make $9.8M in weekend four at 3,428 venues,  -41% for a running take by Sunday of $212.2M. Lionsgate/Participant Media’s Wonder is projected to clear $8.75M in weekend four at 3,519 theaters, -28% for a running stateside cume of $100.6M, easily Lionsgate’s highest release of 2017, not counting carryover La La Land which minted $120.1M of its $151.1M in the current calendar year.

[KeepItU25071906]

Shape of water

 

Disaster Artist

 

[narniadis]

as always hard to tell what Deadline is thinking without a Friday number to look at. But, if some of those #s hold then it will be a great weekend for films not opening in wide release...

[MovieMan89]

Hoping Thor can hold really well so its gross doesn't dip too low next weekend heading into Xmas. Strange lost a ton of theaters for Xmas.

[narniadis]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Hoping Thor can hold really well so its gross doesn't dip too low next weekend heading into Xmas. Strange lost a ton of theaters for Xmas.

I wouldn't expect anything less than losing a ton - not only is it the oldest "big" film still playing wide but it's grosses are down as well. Everything from before thanksgiving (and that as well save for Coco) will lose big starting on the 20th.

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

I really want to believe that shape of Water number, but that’s a PTA hold I’ve never seen going to 40 theaters though. It would be awesome if it rang true 

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, narniadis said:

I wouldn't expect anything less than losing a ton - not only is it the oldest "big" film still playing wide but it's grosses are down as well. Everything from before thanksgiving (and that as well save for Coco) will lose big starting on the 20th.

Yes, but Strange dropped from like 2,000 to 500. Hopefully it can avoid something that bad if grosses are a decent amount higher than DS. Hoping it can pull somewhere around 3.8m next weekend vs DS's 2.2m. But needs to have a strong 30% hold or so this weekend. 

Edited December 8, 2017 by MovieMan89

[Sam]

12 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yes, but Strange dropped from like 2,000 to 500. Hopefully it can avoid something that bad if grosses are a decent amount higher than DS. Hoping it can pull somewhere around 3.8m next weekend vs DS's 2.2m. But needs to have a strong 30% hold or so this weekend. 

Even with a 30% drop this weekend, it’s not going near 3.8M next weekend.

 

You’re asking for a -45% drop with big TC loss in face of a 200M+ opener, that’s just not feasible. 

 

I see more around 6.4M this weekend and closer to 3M next week.

[DAJK]

That fuckin shape of water number if it comes true is something box office nerds are gonna bust a nut to for years to come...

 

 

Kidding obviously but that PTA would be fuckin insane! Not terrible for Disaster Artist either, but at this point I don't know how much higher than 30M total it'll do

[Jonwo]

Will be interesting which Sally Hawkins film does more, The Shape of Water or Paddington 2. 

 

The Disaster Artist will likely be A24's biggest hit even if it does $30-35m domestic, WB has OS rights and I can't imagine they're expecting to do huge figures

 

Fox Searchlight has done well this year, makes a change from last year when Birth of a Nation was DOA.

[RichWS]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

The Disaster Artist will likely be A24's biggest hit even if it does $30-35m domestic

 

Lady Bird is gonna take that crown.

[Jonwo]

11 minutes ago, RichWS said:

 

Lady Bird is gonna take that crown.

I forgot about Lady Bird! Then Disaster Artist will probably be second highest. 

[Fancyarcher]

51 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Will be interesting which Sally Hawkins film does more, The Shape of Water or Paddington 2. 

 

The Disaster Artist will likely be A24's biggest hit even if it does $30-35m domestic, WB has OS rights and I can't imagine they're expecting to do huge figures

 

Fox Searchlight has done well this year, makes a change from last year when Birth of a Nation was DOA.

Shape of Water should do better domestically, while Paddington 2 does better overseas. If that Friday number holds then Shape of Water has the potential to really break-out over the Holiday season.

Edited December 8, 2017 by Fancyarcher

[Jonwo]

Just now, Fancyarcher said:

Shape of Water should do better domestically, while Paddington 2 does better overseas. If that Friday number holds then Shape of Water has the potential to really break-out over the Holiday season.

Paddington 2 will earn most its money from just the UK, everywhere else is just gravy for Studiocanal. WB will be happy if Paddington 2 does similar numbers to the first domestically, I think it could potentially a bit as Peter Rabbit and sadly Early Man won't do much

[Fancyarcher]

3 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Paddington 2 will earn most its money from just the UK, everywhere else is just gravy for Studiocanal. WB will be happy if Paddington 2 does similar numbers to the first domestically, I think it could potentially a bit as Peter Rabbit and sadly Early Man won't do much

It should help that it's being released in January where it has little competition aside from the Christmas films, plus reviews are quite solid. I could see it making about as much as the first. 

[Boxofficerules]

Dull weakend 

[Jonwo]

9 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

It should help that it's being released in January where it has little competition aside from the Christmas films, plus reviews are quite solid. I could see it making about as much as the first. 

It's a brilliant film and I imagine Warner Bros is happy they got it because they put the first film in turnaround only for Studiocanal to pick it up and it became a huge success. I wouldn't be surprised if WB releases Paddington 3 and releases it say in December 2020.

[RamblinRed]

weather could be a factor this weekend.

Bad snow in places along the East Coast.

Atlanta (at least from downtown to North Suburbs) is basically out of commission today and probably at least part if not all of tomorrow.

I've got 5 inches of snow at my house right now with another 3 inches projected by morning. Right now i suspect i won't be out of the house until Sunday.

 

That could also affect early estimates for Friday if it isn't taken into account that parts of the SE are going to have very low turnout today.

 

Storm moves up the East Coast and hits Philly, NYC and Boston tomorrow.

 

 

[RamblinRed]

ABC News was just reporting that up to 70M people could be in the path of the first major East Coast snow storm of the winter.

 

[Fancyarcher]

3 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

It's a brilliant film and I imagine Warner Bros is happy they got it because they put the first film in turnaround only for Studiocanal to pick it up and it became a huge success. I wouldn't be surprised if WB releases Paddington 3 and releases it say in December 2020.

Christmas time would be a good release date for Paddington 3. If it's well-received, it might be able to outgross the first two.