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Wednesday #s: TLJ 16.9M, Jumanji 7.2M, Greatest Snowman 2.45M

By YM!, in Numbers and Data

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Barnack Global Phenomenon

Barnack

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

Nothing about it is strong. 

 

This is an $80m production with a $100m+ ad campaign and paid-for Golden Globe nominations. 

The paid GLobes is probably already included in that 100m+ release budget.

 

20 million by monday would be

47% of Night at the musuem but Musuem had 2 less days.

75% of Rocky Balboa

 

If it has better leg than the franchise movie sequel that was Rocky Balboa, we could expect for it to finish not so far than Rocky 70m domestic, if it goes to do around 35/65, that would be 200m WW.

 

Some possible reference of dbo/itnl ratio, Echanted was at 37.5/62.5, Sweeney Todd was 35/65, Miserable 33/66, La la land 33/66, Mama Mia 25/75, but some musical end up domestic heavy will see, this feel international appeal title without any particular american appeal to it.

 

That would not be particularly good. Closest recent comparable I could find:

 

CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF MEATBALLS 2

PRODUCTION COST (79,890)

RELEASING COST (137,506) (111.83 million of those for the theatrical release)

 

Break even point was estimated at          :  75.3m dbo / 120.5m intl, 195.0m WW

Return on investment point was estimated at:  99.0m dbo / 158.4m intl, 257.4m WW for a 15.8% profit margin

Greenlight with a                          : 100.0m dbo / 150.0m intl, 250.0m WW performance in mind

 

GROWN UPS 2

PRODUCTION COST (93,600)

88.9 world theatrical release cost, expecting around 100m total releasing cost.

 

Break even point was estimated at          :  88.5m dbo /  69.0m intl, 157.5m WW

Return on investment point was estimated at: 125.5m dbo /  98.0m intl, 223.5m WW for a 17.1% profit margin

Greenlight with a                          : 135.0m dbo / 105.0m intl, 240.0m WW performance in mind

 

Probably the type of movie you want to do 250/260m WW from, so it would either need to get a bit above 90m domestic or play better than 33/66 a little bit.

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IronJimbo Global Phenomenon

IronJimbo

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, MikeQ said:

 

Unless I'm mistaken, it's a softer drop than Rogue One. A $17.5M Wednesday represents a 13.6% drop for The Last Jedi, compared to Rogue One's 14.9% drop on its same Wednesday.

 

Peace,

Mike

R1 didn't drop 6% on the Tuesday.

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
Posted

In 2006 the New Year's FSS grew well over the previous week's FSS for all movies except Rocky Balboa (-11%).

So if SW8 hits 70 FSS this weekend, next weekend 3-day could again be similar or more as opposed to: 64 2nd weekend=>49 3rd weekend for RO, due to the different holiday schedule. SW8 will play deeper into the holidays with relatively bigger numbers towrads the end. It's 3rd weekend could stay flat/be bigger than the 2nd one if 2006 is anything to go by.

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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, a2knet said:

In 2006 the New Year's FSS grew well over the previous week's FSS for all movies except Rocky Balboa (-11%).

So if SW8 hits 70 FSS this weekend, next weekend 3-day could again be similar or more as opposed to: 64 2nd weekend=>49 3rd weekend for RO, due to the different holiday schedule. SW8 will play deeper into the holidays with relatively bigger numbers towrads the end. It's 3rd weekend could stay flat/be bigger than the 2nd one if 2006 is anything to go by.

3rd weekend being similar or even bigger to 2nd will be a necessity if this is getting near 700. RO and TFA were both at 80% of their final gross after New Years weekend.

Edited by MovieMan89
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Fancyarcher Global Phenomenon

Fancyarcher

Posted
Posted (edited)

That seems like a fine number for TLJ. It's hard to say how well it'll do though. It's a smaller drop then Rogue One in comparison, so I guess it's all up in the air.

3 hours ago, The Last Panda said:

The Last Jedi is going to crash down to 5m by Friday!  That'll show Rian Johnson and Disney for messing with my Star Wars!

This just confirms that Johnson is the worst director ever, and he ruined my childhood!

Edited by Fancyarcher
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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

3rd weekend being similar or even bigger to 2nd will be a necessity if this is getting near 700. RO and TFA were both at 80% of their final gross after New Years weekend.

Using 80% target by New Years (next to next Monday), it needs to be on 560 by New Years Monday to hit 700 dom.

- 17 on Wed and 18.5 on Thu (297.5 cume)

- 70 FSS (367.5 cume)

- 32+30+18+17 = 97 Mon-Thu (465 cume)

- 75 FSS (540 cume)

- 24 New Years Mon using RO's ratio: It did 16 on Mon after a 49.6 FSS. (564 cume)

 

So yeah if it does "only" 70 this FSS (-68.1% drop from 220) then it will need to hit that again in the 3rd FSS to stay on track for 700 using 80:20 split. A 5%+ bump at least in the 3rd FSS would be great.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=roguevforce.htm

New Year's FSS 2006 http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2006&wknd=52&p=.htm

 

Edited by a2knet
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