Wednesday #s: TLJ 16.9M, Jumanji 7.2M, Greatest Snowman 2.45M

[FTF]

12 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

"But please, if you’re going to watch this, watch this at home. Netflix’s release plan remains unclear, but you couldn’t have a worse experience in a movie theater if you saw “Salò, or the 120 Days of Sodom” in 4DX."

 

-David Ehrlich, 2017

 

lol holy shit I can't imagine how bad this is.

[JonathanLB]

44 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Could have just left it there. 

Nope, math is a strong suit. Seeing as almost nobody here beat either my Rogue One OW or domestic predictions or for that matter my TLJ OW prediction, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say I have shown a better track record with SW than most. Beyond that, anyone else have BVS as a big swing and a miss? I did. And went on record here saying it. Same with JL. I haven’t been wrong once on this forum for the broad strokes of box office. Not once. That time will come, I’m sure, but let’s not start with personal attacks as I’m golden so far.

 

Friday won’t increase more than 50%? Maybe,

maybe not. I think it can. And Saturday won’t increase as much. I can see a 60% increase Friday and a muted 20% increase Saturday. I think it makes nearly $20M Thursday and Friday can hit $32M, Saturday $38.4M, Sunday $18M for just about $90M.

 

The worst I can see is 28-35-17 for 75, and that will put $750M in jeopardy barring a much larger Monday and Tuesday than expected.

 

But seeing as I expect Xmas to be bigger than Saturday or at least as big, then if Saturday is 35-38 range as I said nearly $40M or actually $40M Xmas. Some people act like the story has already been written on the weekdays when there hasn’t been a damn thing unusual about the weekdays. Except that TFA, this was a week off, so people simply cannot wrap their minds around it. You will, though. You will. Let’s see where things stand a week from today

Edited December 21, 2017 by JonathanLB

[The Panda]

Definitely going to watch Bright, as it's likely it'll have a higher Flixter score than TLJ!

[Barnack]

7 minutes ago, Chewy said:

Idk why ppl are pushing back so hard on the idea that TLJ is much more divisive than TFA, seems pretty clear it is

 

I think because of this and legs:

 

. And on ComScore/Screen Engine, Last Jedi earned an 89% overall positive score and a five-star rating from moviegoers. That’s in the wheelhouse of what Force Awakens earned (90% overall positive/ 4 1/2 stars) and Rogue One (91% positive, 4 1/2 stars).

 

Is it more divise among the niche population that write about their movies experience online in any way, yes (well maybe ? I heard people talking about some force Awaken backlash in the past also but never find any data even online comments type that supported that, was a very small minorities).

 

Does that mean much too ?

Edited December 21, 2017 by Barnack

[redfirebird2008]

3 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Nope, math is a strong suit. Seeing as almost nobody here beat either my Rogue One OW or domestic predictions or for that matter my TLJ OW prediction, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say I have shown a better track record with SW than most. Beyond that, anyone else have BVS as a big swing and a miss? I did. And went on record here saying it. Same with JL. I haven’t been wrong once on this forum for the broad strokes of box office. Not once. That time will come, I’m sure, but let’s not start with personal attacks as I’m golden so far.

 

Friday won’t increase more than 50%? Maybe,

maybe not. I think it can. And Saturday won’t increase as much. I can see a 60% increase Friday and a muted 20% increase Saturday. I think it makes nearly $20M Thursday and Friday can hit $32M, Saturday $38.4M, Sunday $18M for just about $90M.

 

The worst I can see is 28-35-17 for 75, and that will put $750M in jeopardy barring a much larger Monday and Tuesday than expected.

 

But seeing as I expect Xmas to be bigger than Saturday or at least as big, then if Saturday is 35-38 range as I said nearly $40M or actually $40M Xmas. Some people act like the story has already been written on the weekdays when there hasn’t been a damn thing unusual about the weekdays. Except that TFA, this was a week off, so people simply cannot wrap their minds around it. You will, though. You will. Let’s see where things stand a week from today

 

You're arguing against a straw man here. I said yesterday Monday/Tuesday next week could each hit $40m. They could also come up well short of that. We'll see where it goes. 

[Rman823]

5 minutes ago, The Last Panda said:

Definitely going to watch Bright, as it's likely it'll have a higher Flixter score than TLJ!

[cannastop]

9 minutes ago, Noodlebug said:

Does anyone think this is shaping up to be the modern day TPM in terms of reception?

No. Critics gave TLJ universal praise.

[Rman823]

10 minutes ago, Noodlebug said:

Does anyone think this is shaping up to be the modern day TPM in terms of reception?

TLJ isn’t even close to being in the same league as TPM. 

[EmpireCity]

Despite the calendar setting up for the first time in 12 years this way, and despite films behaving as such, and despite the fact that many schools and work aren't out yet, and despite the fact that a lot of theaters didn't offer up the usual discount Tuesday and despite the less showings due to run time, I'm so happy that everyone has lost their mind and their analysis has been as useful as a lonely freshman trying to fuck a pie.  

 

Great job, everyone.  Great job.  

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

Despite the calendar setting up for the first time in 12 years this way, and despite films behaving as such, and despite the fact that many schools and work aren't out yet, and despite the fact that a lot of theaters didn't offer up the usual discount Tuesday and despite the less showings due to run time, I'm so happy that everyone has lost their mind and their analysis has been as useful as a lonely freshman trying to fuck a pie.  

 

Great job, everyone.  Great job.  

Do you have any friends?

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

Despite the calendar setting up for the first time in 12 years this way, and despite films behaving as such, and despite the fact that many schools and work aren't out yet, and despite the fact that a lot of theaters didn't offer up the usual discount Tuesday and despite the less showings due to run time, I'm so happy that everyone has lost their mind and their analysis has been as useful as a lonely freshman trying to fuck a pie.  

 

Great job, everyone.  Great job.  

 

Seriously, I worry your blood pressure is almost through the roof these days, EC.

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

 despite the fact that a lot of theaters didn't offer up the usual discount Tuesday

That is actually wrong...all discount theaters kept Dec 19 cheap Tuesday discounts...

 

Not sure where the rumor got started for Dec 19, but it was 100% false.  Dec 26 was in the air, but someone confirmed AMC is likely to extend its program again for that date...(hopefully, we'll have a link to that, b/c you'd think they'd make the public:)...

 

[EmpireCity]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

That is actually wrong...all discount theaters kept Dec 19 cheap Tuesday discounts...

 

Not sure where the rumor got started for Dec 19, but it was 100% false.  Dec 26 was in the air, but someone confirmed AMC is likely to extend its program again for that date...(hopefully, we'll have a link to that, b/c you'd think they'd make the public:)...

 

 

It isn't wrong, but what do I know.....

[Chewy]

6 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

I think because of this and legs:

 

. And on ComScore/Screen Engine, Last Jedi earned an 89% overall positive score and a five-star rating from moviegoers. That’s in the wheelhouse of what Force Awakens earned (90% overall positive/ 4 1/2 stars) and Rogue One (91% positive, 4 1/2 stars).

 

Is it more divise among the niche population that write about their movies experience online in any way, yes (well maybe ? I heard people talking about some force Awaken backlash in the past also but never find any data even online comments type that supported that, was a very small minorities).

 

Does that mean much too ?

 

TFA backlash was never a real thing with the audience at large, and blockbusters almost always score high on early exit polls. The comments on this one, everywhere (facebook, twitter, etc) are all over the place. That's not to say that most people dislike it, as others are suggesting, just that the response is way less universal and euphoric

[EmpireCity]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Do you have any friends?

My only friends are the local Fans of Zootopia group.  We meet twice every day to talk about how obsessed we are.  

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

My only friends are the local Fans of Zootopia group.  We meet twice every day to talk about how obsessed we are.  

[TalismanRing]

32 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

"But please, if you’re going to watch this, watch this at home. Netflix’s release plan remains unclear, but you couldn’t have a worse experience in a movie theater if you saw “Salò, or the 120 Days of Sodom” in 4DX."

 

-David Ehrlich, 2017

Maybe the trailer editing team was needed after all...

 

 

[Deep Wang]

25 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Nope, math is a strong suit. Seeing as almost nobody here beat either my Rogue One OW or domestic predictions or for that matter my TLJ OW prediction, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say I have shown a better track record with SW than most. Beyond that, anyone else have BVS as a big swing and a miss? I did. And went on record here saying it. Same with JL. I haven’t been wrong once on this forum for the broad strokes of box office. Not once. That time will come, I’m sure, but let’s not start with personal attacks as I’m golden so far.

 

Friday won’t increase more than 50%? Maybe,

maybe not. I think it can. And Saturday won’t increase as much. I can see a 60% increase Friday and a muted 20% increase Saturday. I think it makes nearly $20M Thursday and Friday can hit $32M, Saturday $38.4M, Sunday $18M for just about $90M.

 

The worst I can see is 28-35-17 for 75, and that will put $750M in jeopardy barring a much larger Monday and Tuesday than expected.

 

But seeing as I expect Xmas to be bigger than Saturday or at least as big, then if Saturday is 35-38 range as I said nearly $40M or actually $40M Xmas. Some people act like the story has already been written on the weekdays when there hasn’t been a damn thing unusual about the weekdays. Except that TFA, this was a week off, so people simply cannot wrap their minds around it. You will, though. You will. Let’s see where things stand a week from today

 

First off, we get it, you predicted Rogue One real good like.  Not the OW or the total, but you got the legs!

 

Second, there is literally a thread somewhere with the derby predicts for TLJ and I'm sure se can find out how you matched up against everyone else

 

Third, predictions =/= projections.  There is a natural order to the way movies increase/decrease and these guys are pros at it.  Just because you have a hunch, doesn't mean you are going to be right.  If this time of year movies of this type don't increase more than 50%, then that's typically whats going to happen. 

Edited December 21, 2017 by Darth Boh-ne'er

[Barnack]

Just now, Chewy said:

 

TFA backlash was never a real thing with the audience at large, and blockbusters almost always score high on early exit polls. The comments on this one, everywhere (facebook, twitter, etc) are all over the place. That's not to say that most people dislike it, as others are suggesting, just that the response is way less universal and euphoric

The box office pro twitter pos/neg ratio is indeed really low, but I am not sure if it is representative.

 

DATE	# TWEETS	POS:NEG RATIO
December 20, 2017	154,916	4 : 1
December 19, 2017	195,028	3 : 1
December 18, 2017	240,620	5 : 1

 

 

How representative that non random group would be and how small it it is, not sure how good at tracking them box office pro is, but we are talking about 200-500k twitt a day, divide say by 5 for the amount of unique users, we are getting what over 50 million people that have seen that movie by now, the immense majority not talking about it on tracked platform.

 

In my day to day life at work and so one I had heard more Force Awaken is just a copy complain than complain about this one, that said not many big star wars fan in that feedback, really general audience like.

[Johnny Tran]

What were you guys expecting from this anyway?  It had no shot at getting anywhere near TFA a once in a generation hype machine..