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Wednesday #s: TLJ 16.9M, Jumanji 7.2M, Greatest Snowman 2.45M

By YM!, in Numbers and Data

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narniadis Blockbuster

narniadis

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Sure, I mean, yeah... good math. Except I have no clue why it would hit only $70M for the weekend when predictions were $88-90M and I've seen nothing to make me believe otherwise. And I don't know why Christmas day would be under upper 30s, and probably $40M. TFA hit almost $50M on Christmas Day, and I don't have any reason to assume a movie that opened 11% under TFA will fall 40% on Christmas from its predecessor as there simply is no reason to believe that at this point. Anything could happen, but we work on predictions based on math and statistics and it's unlikely.

 

I think 90M FSS

$40M Christmas Day

$75M the next three days or more

$95M 4-day weekend

$10M per weekday Tues - Thurs, at least (these will exceed TFA's numbers, as more people are off, and could be higher like 11-12)

Good, strong hold the following weekend with no NYE falling on Sunday so the Sunday-to-Sunday comp will be good, Friday will be strong, and Saturday is always strong, scant 35% decline on the 4th weekend.

 

I have trouble doing any math that leads under $750M. The worst, harshest percentage decline will be this weekend, but it won't make any difference since the entire following week is off for just about everyone and that's when the fun happens. 

I have a hard time seeing 90m this weekend anymore - the decrease today kind of put a stop to that. Now if Wednesday ends up higher than 17.5 it might be possible but it would also require a Thursday increase of say 10% because Friday won't increase more than 50% (particularly with the glut of new films hitting again that need screens and showtimes). IF this weekend behaves like 2006 than Saturday will be muted compared to a regular Saturday so again less than 50% increase - probably closer to 35% followed by that harsh 50-55% fall Sunday. While I expect a close to 100% Monday increase, it's not guaranteed, particularly when dealing with such high numbers.

 

So say -

 

17.5 Wed

19.25 Thursday (10%)

28.875 Friday (+50%)

38.981 (+35%)

19.49 (-50%)

= 87.346 Weekend and I think that is highly optimistic at this point (Would love to be wrong)

 

Also about the only way we get close to 40m on Christmas day - and it would still fall short.

 

Finally - do not try and compare TFA's Christmas Friday (best day of the week Box office wise for it to fall) with a Christmas Monday - they act differently. 

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redfirebird2008 Global Phenomenon

redfirebird2008

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, narniadis said:

I have a hard time seeing 90m this weekend anymore - the decrease today kind of put a stop to that. Now if Wednesday ends up higher than 17.5 it might be possible but it would also require a Thursday increase of say 10% because Friday won't increase more than 50% (particularly with the glut of new films hitting again that need screens and showtimes). IF this weekend behaves like 2006 than Saturday will be muted compared to a regular Saturday so again less than 50% increase - probably closer to 35% followed by that harsh 50-55% fall Sunday. While I expect a close to 100% Monday increase, it's not guaranteed, particularly when dealing with such high numbers.

 

So say -

 

17.5 Wed

19.25 Thursday (10%)

28.875 Friday (+50%)

38.981 (+35%)

19.49 (-50%)

= 87.346 Weekend and I think that is highly optimistic at this point (Would love to be wrong)

 

Also about the only way we get close to 40m on Christmas day - and it would still fall short.

 

Finally - do not try and compare TFA's Christmas Friday (best day of the week Box office wise for it to fall) with a Christmas Monday - they act differently. 

 

Very very good analysis. And I agree about Christmas Day. It should be huge for Last Jedi, but it's a bad idea to compare a Monday version of it to a Friday version. There are still people who have to go back to work on Tuesday the 26th, as hard as this might be for some here to believe.

 

My company is giving us Monday/Tuesday, but I have a co-worker who said his wife's company (a rival of ours in town) is only giving their people Monday the 25th. Normally he said they give both 24th and 25th when they are weekdays, but I guess they are screwing the employees this year since the 24th is a Sunday. 

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grey ghost Global Phenomenon

grey ghost

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, REC said:

I really don't think the problems with TLJ can be put on fanboys.  Why not start with the more obvious issue?  It's not a very good story or set of characters in the Star Wars universe.  It's not a very good movie.

 

I realize the spin from Disney is to make this about bots and trolls, maybe just maybe a whole bunch of people don't like a bad movie.  Might be the case you know?  They corralled the critics well, perhaps they could predict the movie would be at a minimum controversial, so they did everything they could to procure a high professional critic score.  They hit that out of the park with a 93% on RT.  But the actual moviegoer reviews tell a different reaction.  Maybe some of that is an overreaction to the inflated critic scores, but not all of it can or should be dismissed.  The truth might be somewhere inbetween.

 

I honestly think this movie is going to do about 1.2bn worldwide.  Maybe 600m domestic and the same foreign.  It wouldn't surprise me if they end up with numbers that are only marginally better than RO.  I'm sure it will still make them money and be profitable and all that, but what does this do to other movies they have going forward.  I don't see this as a net positive development for them.

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Noodlebug Sleeper Hit

Noodlebug

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Very very good analysis. And I agree about Christmas Day. It should be huge for Last Jedi, but it's a bad idea to compare a Monday version of it to a Friday version. There are still people who have to go back to work on Tuesday the 26th, as hard as this might be for some here to believe.

 

My company is giving us Monday/Tuesday, but I have a co-worker who said his wife's company (a rival of ours in town) is only giving their people Monday the 25th. Normally he said they give both 24th and 25th when they are weekdays, but I guess they are screwing the employees this year since the 24th is a Sunday. 

I work graveyard shift, and they're making us come in Christmas night. Shit sucks, but yeah, a lot of us have abnormal workdays.

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That One Girl Global Phenomenon

That One Girl

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Heat Vision said:

The reviews for David Ayer's Bright are coming in and it doesn't look good. 

 

"But please, if you’re going to watch this, watch this at home. Netflix’s release plan remains unclear, but you couldn’t have a worse experience in a movie theater if you saw “Salò, or the 120 Days of Sodom” in 4DX."

 

-David Ehrlich, 2017

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Noodlebug Sleeper Hit

Noodlebug

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

That really sucks. Sorry to hear that. 

It's ok. One nice thing about working from 10pm-7am is that I can see most movies during the Thursday premiere as long as they start around 7 at the latest. Having a theater less than a mile away from work helps. Thor: Ragnarok and JL were fun pre-shift experiences. TLJ was too crowded and too long with all the previews that would have made me late, but other than that, it works out.

Edited by Noodlebug
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