Wednesday #s: TLJ 16.9M, Jumanji 7.2M, Greatest Snowman 2.45M

[Lordmandeep]

1 hour ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

To an extent. But I remember there was a lot of negative nitpicking about Avatar on the Internet even when it first came out. Did not stop that film from pulling an awesome 9.7 multiplier off a pretty big opening weekend. WOM was legitimately "A+++" level with the general audience and it didn't matter if people wanted to bitch on the Intertubes about it.

 

Similar thing can be said about TFA to an extent. A lot of fans were very happy with that movie, but you did see some nitpicking very early on about "New Hope Rehash" blah blah blah. Didn't stop it from getting an awesome 3.78 multiplier after a gigantic opening weekend.

 

Plus you just have the general sequel effect where even good WOM is not good enough to prevent a big decline in legs/multiplier. Ultron and TDKR both had good WOM despite the nitpicks on Internet. They still declined a crap ton from their predecessors when it comes to multiplier/legs.

True but other metrics like IMDB scores and such were always overwhelmingly positive for those films.

Edited December 21, 2017 by Lordmandeep

[Lordmandeep]

1 minute ago, CenterMeOnSam said:

 

What? The survey is on TLJ not TFA. What are you talking about?

 

Because you think audiences are mindless idiots.... Liking a film has different variations. 

 

I think unlike TFA, I don't there is universal praise.

 

For TLJ it is more  I like but I don't like X, Y Z in this film this time.

 

That imo effects repeat viewings of this film and to me explains the lower weekdays then expected. 

 

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

These days wed looses some of it's money to tuesday due to discount tuesday. we don't know how much tuesday would have dropped compared to the actual -6% on a non-discount tuesday and how much would have spilled over to wednesday.

 

Also i feel that the above mentioned movies posting smaller numbers and none of them being sequels were back-loaded in general. sw8 on the other hand already has the momentum early on due to the hype. i don't think sw8 can show the massive jumps in new years weekend that some of the 2006 movies showed so it should certainly cross 70m this weekend.

 

With a more normal 70% Monday drop, the $20m Tuesday is over 30% increase. The Tuesday number itself looks pretty normal to me when you put it in context with what usually happens on Monday when 100% of schools are in session.

[REC]

Just now, Lordmandeep said:

True but other metrics like IMDB scores and such were always overwhelmingly positive for those films. 

Which points to the fact that negative reviews are not the fault of extreme fans, bots or trolls.  There's no significant change in the social media landscape, you can look at data for RO and TFA just in the last 2 years.  Social media and review scores from users were more positive on those movies, why the sudden negative backlash now?

 

If anything the opposite is true.  There's a history with star wars of extreme fans defending the material irrationally, like when the prequels came out.  Even though they were clearly bad in many parts and had flaws, star wars fans would make excuses for them.  They would try to claim the material was smarter and better.  I'm getting flashbacks to all that prequel apologizing now.

 

Critics can be really wrong on this too.  Roger Ebert gave TPM 4/4 stars when it came out.  He gushed over the visuals and storytelling.  He spent years defending that and he wasn't the only one.  Certain data points here aren't telling the whole picture.

[CenterMeOnSam]

5 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

Because you think audiences are mindless idiots.... Liking a film has different variations. 

 

I think unlike TFA, I don't there is universal praise.

 

For TLJ it is more  I like but I don't like X, Y Z in this film this time.

 

That imo effects repeat viewings of this film and to me explains the lower weekdays then expected. 

 

 

Uhh... you could be right... except the folks surveyed ranked TLJ ABOVE TFA. So....?

 

I don't have an opinion, I'm simply stating what the scientifically relevant information is telling us. 

 

People lash out when you show them math. Math doesn't hold a bias. It's just statistics. 

Edited December 21, 2017 by CenterMeOnSam

[CenterMeOnSam]

Just now, REC said:

Which points to the fact that negative reviews are not the fault of extreme fans, bots or trolls.  There's no significant change in the social media landscape, you can look at data for RO and TFA just in the last 2 years.  Social media and review scores from users were more positive on those movies, why the sudden negative backlash now?

 

If anything the opposite is true.  There's a history with star wars of extreme fans defending the material irrationally, like when the prequels came out.  Even though they were clearly bad in many parts and had flaws, star wars fans would make excuses for them.  They would try to claim the material was smarter and better.  I'm getting flashbacks to all that prequel apologizing now.

 

Critics can be really wrong on this too.  Roger Ebert gave TPM 4/4 stars when it came out.  He gushed over the visuals and storytelling.  He spent years defending that and he wasn't the only one.  Certain data points here aren't telling the whole picture.

 

IMDB is not scientifically relevant information. It's junk data.

 

Rotten Tomatoes Critics Score is somewhere in the middle, as it is part survey (similar or same respondents measured over a great deal of time) and part junk (not weighed or representative of an accurate general audience)

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, CenterMeOnSam said:

 

Uhh... you could be right... except the folks survey ranked TLJ ABOVE TFA. So....?

 

I don't have an opinion, I'm simply stating what the scientifically relevant information is telling us. 

 

People lash out when you show them math. Math doesn't hold a bias. It's just statistics. 

Well, the only Math without possible bias is the ticket sale total...

[Lordmandeep]

5 minutes ago, CenterMeOnSam said:

 

Uhh... you could be right... except the folks survey ranked TLJ ABOVE TFA. So....?

 

I don't have an opinion, I'm simply stating what the scientifically relevant information is telling us. 

 

People lash out when you show them math. Math doesn't hold a bias. It's just statistics. 

 

 

TLJ is more liked then TFA by audiences is not reflected in the box office.

 

 

Case closed.

 

 

Edited December 21, 2017 by Lordmandeep

[CenterMeOnSam]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Well, the only Math without possible bias is the ticket sale total...

 

No.

 

All math is without bias. It's... it's math.

[REC]

3 minutes ago, CenterMeOnSam said:

IMDB is not scientifically relevant information.

Correct I never claimed it was.

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, CenterMeOnSam said:

 

No.

 

All math is without bias. It's... it's math.

Yes, but we've already talked about how every "scientific" poll you've posted has problems/bias of its own...so it's not "Math" like you want, either, at least not the certain kind like a ticket bought = +$$ to the box office total...

 

That's the only 100% problem-free Math we've got...

Edited December 21, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Well, the only Math without possible bias is the ticket sale total...

Harris poll year's later, comscore type exit poll are probably the closest, more than ticket sale, almost everyone that buy a ticket buy the ticket before seeing the movie after all, home video performance among ticket buyer is maybe a better metric than ticket sales if we had it.

[CenterMeOnSam]

Just now, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

TLJ is more liked then TFA by audiences is not reflected in the box office.

 

 

Sigh.

 

Okay, let me explain...

 

Out of the people who have SEEN TLJ, they say, according to this survey, that they liked TLJ more. That number could, and will, fluctuate after more people see the movie if they were to go back in the field for a new poll.

 

So, the sample is important here. The sample being used is one that has seen TLJ after the first weekend. 

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

Yes, but we've already talked about how every "scientific" poll you've posted has problems/bias of its own...

What would be there problems and bias too ?

[a2k]

8 minutes ago, CenterMeOnSam said:

 

Uhh... you could be right... except the folks surveyed ranked TLJ ABOVE TFA. So....?

 

I don't have an opinion, I'm simply stating what the scientifically relevant information is telling us. 

 

People lash out when you show them math. Math doesn't hold a bias. It's just statistics. 

fun read https://aeon.co/essays/how-economists-rode-maths-to-become-our-era-s-astrologers

[CenterMeOnSam]

2 minutes ago, REC said:

Correct I never claimed it was.

Well, you kinda did. You even use the word "fact" in a dubious setting.  "Which points to the fact that negative reviews are not the fault of extreme fans, bots or trolls."

[grim22]

WB release slate for 2018 (prior to A Star is Born moving to October). Looks like Tomb Raider is 2D only, and their summer slate is pretty light offering alternatives to blockbusters, Oceans 8 I think will do really well so will Crazy Rich Asians. The Nun will do typical Conjuring numbers. Kind of shocked that RPO or Rampage weren't moved to Summer. Their biggest movies will be the last 2 releases of the year

 

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, Barnack said:

What would be there problems and bias too ?

That was yesterday's topic...we went for pages, and rehashing would probably be counter-productive:)...

[CenterMeOnSam]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Yes, but we've already talked about how every "scientific" poll you've posted has problems/bias of its own...so it's not "Math" like you want, either, at least not the certain kind like a ticket bought = +$$ to the box office total...

 

That's the only 100% problem-free Math we've got...

 

I don't see any type of bias in these polls, but I don't have access to the internals so I can not say for certain. 

 

The methods are on the up and up for a highly accurate statistical representation of a weighted random sample. 

[REC]

Just now, CenterMeOnSam said:

Well, you kinda did. You even use the word "fact" in a dubious setting.  "Which points to the fact that negative reviews are not the fault of extreme fans, bots or trolls."

Ok I'll grant you that because I probably shouldn't have used the word fact right there, that's too extreme.  It's an indicator that these social media boards are probably not being taken over by bots and extreme fans.  As Disney would have us believe.

 

That's their spin.  They might be looking at lower than expected numbers so they're gonna try to put a positive spin on things right?  They need to pre-butt any potential drop off, say its the fault of manbabies or superfans.  It certainly couldn't be because they made a miscalculation with the product.  I get that.

 

It's the same playbook Sony used against anyone who criticized Ghostbusters 2016.  Who knows maybe that spin will work for them.