Wednesday #s: TLJ 16.9M, Jumanji 7.2M, Greatest Snowman 2.45M

[WrathOfHan]

A bit disappointing that both Wednesday openers are dropping today. 10M for Showman's 3 day is at risk.

Edited December 21, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[filmnerdjamie]

Just now, Brainbug said:

Wait isnt it just 6 pm or so in the US? Why is Deadline so early with estimates?

Because Deadline gonna Deadline.

[mredman]

4 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

would you be asking why they only singled out Thor if it were the other way around?  probably not.

yes

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, mredman said:

yes

 

[redfirebird2008]

7 minutes ago, a2knet said:

lol, while they are at it i wanna know jw2's ow.

17.5 would be a 3.55% jump for sw8. doesn't seem right.

most would guess 10-15% bump (18.6-19.4)

 

You laugh but they did very early numbers both Monday and Wednesday...both were pretty damn accurate by Deadline standards. Yesterday in particular, they posted it was heading for around 17-17.5 at about 4 PM Central (same time as today's early estimate) and the Wednesday number turned out to be 16.9 in the end.

 

I do wonder how school closing mid-day will impact today's number. Public schools got out in my town at Noon (4 hours ago). Should help the afternoon and night shows.

[Barnack]

10 minutes ago, mredman said:

it beat Thor too and Thor has also been ahead of Star. So why single out only JL

I think because JL and star released the same day, making the comparison more direct and more surprising for the small Star to do more than Justice League after the same numbers of days into release than Thor 3 that was released weeks before them and was not expected to be close to JL at this point.

[mredman]

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

You laugh but they did very early numbers both Monday and Wednesday...both were pretty damn accurate by Deadline standards. Yesterday in particular, they posted it was heading for around 17-17.5 at about 4 PM Central (same time as today's early estimate) and the Wednesday number turned out to be 16.9 in the end.

 

I do wonder how school closing mid-day will impact today's number. Public schools got out in my town at Noon (4 hours ago). Should help the afternoon and night shows.

deadline been accurate for some time now with their early numbers

[John Marston]

Those are some nasty Wednesday drops 

[Barnack]

7 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

You laugh but they did very early numbers both Monday and Wednesday...both were pretty damn accurate by Deadline standards.

Could it a larger than usual amount of tickets being bought online for Star Wars (because it is playing in large part in designated sitting room, rare to be that big of a movie that you are still better to buy your ticket a bit an advance to have good seat even mid week after the release, etc...) ?

[TalismanRing]

15 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Deadline beeing ridiciously early:

 

Thursday 2PM: More K-12 schools are out today than yesterday (39% vs. 24%) and colleges too (82% to 78%). The midweek’s offerings Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The Greatest Showman are largely staying steady in daily industry figures but Disney’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi is still taking in the majority of the day’s business. Disney reported $16.9M yesterday and today the Rian Johnson-directed Episode VIII is seeing around $17.5M which would get the movie to $296.3M.

 

Sony called Wednesday for Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle at $7.2M and the Dwayne Johnson-Kevin Hart-Jack Black-Karen Gillan movie looks to be around $6.4M today. Including Amazon Prime sneaks, the running gross for Jumanji is $15.5M.

 

20th Century Fox/Chernin Ent’s The Greatest Showman is looking at $2.1M which brings its two day total to $4.6M.

Tonight, Universal’s Pitch Perfect 3 and Paramount’s Downsizing will hold previews starting at 7PM.

With a 6.4m Thur Jumanji would need Pursuit of Happyness outlier 2006 numbers to come near $30m for the weekend

 

Pursuit of Happyness: 67% (Fr) / 2.77x  --->   $29.6m for Jumanji

 

 

[mredman]

6 minutes ago, Barnack said:

I think because JL and star released the same day, making the comparison more direct and more surprising for the small Star to do more than Justice League after the same numbers of days into release than Thor 3 that was released weeks before them and was not expected to be close to JL at this point.

still it beat it and Thor has more theaters then Star

[a2k]

20 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

A bit disappointing that both Wednesday openers are dropping today. 10M for Showman's 3 day is at risk.

they always do. sing dropped too. 11% thu drop from Jumanji is very good imo.

[Lancelot Gold]

Assuming Deadline is close with 17.5 for Thursday, I'll undercut and assume 17 for these predictions.

 

Thursday 17.0

Friday 27.88 (+64%)

Saturday 37.64 (+35%)

Sunday 30 (-20%)

Monday 54 (+80%)

[a2k]

20 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

You laugh but they did very early numbers both Monday and Wednesday...both were pretty damn accurate by Deadline standards. Yesterday in particular, they posted it was heading for around 17-17.5 at about 4 PM Central (same time as today's early estimate) and the Wednesday number turned out to be 16.9 in the end.

 

I do wonder how school closing mid-day will impact today's number. Public schools got out in my town at Noon (4 hours ago). Should help the afternoon and night shows.

i didn't know it was this early yesterday too.

yeah, hopefully picks up in the evening shows. 

 

I like Barnack's reasoning:

12 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Could it a larger than usual amount of tickets being bought online for Star Wars (because it is playing in large part in designated sitting room, rare to be that big of a movie that you are still better to buy your ticket a bit an advance to have good seat even mid week after the release, etc...) ?

 

[Noctis]

Can someone please tell me how Avatar beat Half-Blood Prince in cinematography at the Oscars?

[a2k]

If Thu comes in higher at 18.0 (+6.5%), guessing

 

26.1 (+45%)

28.7 (+10%)

14.2 (-50.5%)

32.0 (+125%)

= 101 4-day (69 3-day)

Edited December 21, 2017 by a2knet

[aabattery]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

(69 3-day)

 

[AndyK]

39 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

Because Deadline gonna Deadline.

Wheres the Friday numbers

[WrathOfHan]

14 minutes ago, Noctis said:

Can someone please tell me how Avatar beat Half-Blood Prince in cinematography at the Oscars?

I had no idea HBP was nominated for cinematography  

 

I also had no idea Batman Forever was nominated for cinematography  

[Poseidon]

Comparing SW to other movies in 2006 probably just doesn't work. It's a huge blockbuster, so expecting it to have a 15% jump on thursday like all the other movies just doesn't seem likely on that scale. It's still posting huge daily numbers, but pretty much every blockbuster of that scale is going down on dailies compared to "normal" releases. "Only" jumping 4% is what I would consider quite normal.

 

This is not TFA. TFA was that 1 in 10 years movie. 

Edited December 21, 2017 by Poseidon