Wednesday #s: TLJ 16.9M, Jumanji 7.2M, Greatest Snowman 2.45M

[YM!]

Just now, That One Guy said:

I tend to have a soft spot for musicals, but damn I really enjoyed The Greatest Showman

How does it compare to the other movies this year.

[That One Girl]

3 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

How does it compare to the other movies this year.

 

uh...I’ve seen nearly 150 movies this year.  you're gonna have to be more specific buddy.

[Johnny Tran]

These meltdowns are fantastic.  Just in time for the holidays. Keep them coming.. 

 

[MattW]

My club is revitalized XD

[Lordmandeep]

2 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

These meltdowns are fantastic.  Just in time for the holidays. Keep them coming.. 

 

 

 

I always wondered if the actor in the film wanted to act so over the top or George Lucas made him to do so,

 

Because in ROTJ he was wayyy more grounded. 

[a2k]

pro.BO is going for 115 4-day weekend for TLJ. Wonder if they are thinking 80 3-day + 35 Monday. At least that ratio would make sense. But feels they are being optimistic.

 

Spoiler

Title	Distributor	4-Day Weekend	Domestic Total through Monday, December 25	% Change
Star Wars: The Last Jedi	Disney / Lucasfilm	$115,000,000	$423,300,000	-48%
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	Sony / Columbia	$39,000,000	$61,500,000	NEW
Pitch Perfect 3	Universal	$34,000,000	$34,000,000	NEW
The Greatest Showman	Fox	$14,000,000	$22,000,000	NEW
Downsizing	Paramount	$12,000,000	$12,000,000	NEW
Ferdinand	Fox	$10,700,000	$31,200,000	-20%
Coco	Disney / Pixar	$7,500,000	$163,800,000	-24%
Father Figures	Warner Bros.	$7,300,000	$7,300,000	NEW
Wonder	Lionsgate	$4,600,000	$117,000,000	-12%
Darkest Hour	Focus Features	$4,200,000	$7,100,000	+395%

 

[MrGlass2]

33 minutes ago, a2knet said:

295.0 vs 278.8 : os is 5.8% bigger than dom after 6 days.

not sure about what markets are remaining but if os is 6-8% bigger in the end, can see something like 720 + 780 = 1500 ww

Doesn't it still have China? That would be a HUGE market.

[Fancyarcher]

51 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I still have no clue what the fuck my theater was thinking giving The Greatest Showman two screens this weekend and the 2nd biggest auditorium. Most of the extra PP3 showings got cancelled for Jumanji Friday-Sunday, and they can't move it into a bigger auditorium because so many seats have already sold through Monday.

The Greatest Showman got released in 3005 theaters more then a lot of film musical releases so I'm guessing your theater just assumed it was gonna be a bigger hit then it was. Either that or they were obligated somehow. 

[a2k]

dupe...

Edited December 21, 2017 by a2knet

[grim22]

I think coming out of Christmas day, the running total for TLJ will be 150-180M behind TFA. TLJ will need to match TFA from that point to beat Avatar, Avatar's position as #2 looks safe currently.

[SpiritComix]

Tonight #StarWarsTheLastJedi is set to break $300M intl & $600M worldwide. New totals thru WED: $278.8M domestic, $295M intl, $573.8M global. UK leads intl mkts w/ $50.1M.

— Gitesh Pandya (@GiteshPandya) December 21, 2017

With new films opening on WED, #StarWarsTheLastJedi did $16.9M dropping 17% from TUE. A yr ago #RogueOne was -15% against more competition from opening films. May now reach about $420M thru #Christmas Day MON.

— Gitesh Pandya (@GiteshPandya) December 21, 2017

Edited December 21, 2017 by SpiritComix

[hw64]

1 minute ago, MrGlass2 said:

Doesn't it still have China? That would be a HUGE market.

For Star Wars? Big, but not huge. Probably still the 2nd largest market for TLJ, but don't expect the movie to make hundreds of millions there.

[RichWS]

5 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

I always wondered if the actor in the film wanted to act so over the top or George Lucas made him to do so,

 

Because in ROTJ he was wayyy more grounded. 

 

Never seen ROTJ. Interested to see his performance in that.

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Doesn't it still have China? That would be a HUGE market.

yes that should up the os ratio. so used 7% opposed to currently 5.7%. last i checked the china thread folks were going o/u 50 usd.

[redfirebird2008]

Looking at 2006, the 3-day weekend gross was around 3.5 to 4 times higher than the Wednesday gross for wide theater count holdover movies in release 15 days or less. Pursuit of Happyness appears to be an outlier with a 5.27 multiplier on the weekend compared to Wednesday.

 

$16.9m Wednesday x 5.27 (Pursuit of Happyness) = $89m

$16.9m Wednesday x 3.99 (Eragon) = $68m

$16.9m Wednesday x 3.87 (The Holiday) = $65.4m

$16.9m Wednesday x 3.76 (Blood Diamond) = $63.5m

$16.9m Wednesday x 3.75 (Charlotte's Web) = $63.4m

$16.9m Wednesday x 3.45 (Apocalypto) = $58m

 

Honestly I think it would be doing great if it can get over $70m for the weekend.

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

35 minutes ago, a2knet said:

agree with everything except Monday. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2006-12-25&p=.htm

with 13.3 Sunday thinking 130%+ bump for 30.5+. would be "disappointed" if Monday is sub-30 

Not good, b/c I usually agree with you...

 

I said brutal b/c it seemed like "movie guru wisdom from experts" just given Monday and again, Tuesday, by Deadline said that TLJ would easily hit $88M for the 3 day and have a great 4 day #..."Because Christmas Eve is on Sunday, three-day business will certainly be impacted with industry estimates pegging Star Wars: The Last Jedi at a 60% decline for $88M in Weekend 2. But for all films, it’s about the four-day."  And now, we're under $70M for that same weekend from some folks I respect.

 

I mean, numbers being given (like TLJ should still meet $700M) means some of the board are thinking under 3.2x is now a "goal" number for TLJ to reach...and for my experience, that's not great legs in the holidays - that's not even very good...I mean I said yesterday that 2.99x would be the BvS holiday equivalent legs (1.99x + 1.0x for the holiday) and we're 1/2 way there in some predictions in only 3 weekdays...

 

I wish I'd seen this Saturday so I'd know where my gut was (and I wish the Star and Coco weren't now so cheap that my fam picked them over trying to fit TLJ in before we head out for Xmas:)...friend feedback helps me, but only so much:)...

Edited December 21, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[Lordmandeep]

5 minutes ago, RichWS said:

 

Never seen ROTJ. Interested to see his performance in that.

 

There are many flaws with that film, but he is 100% one of the highlights. 

 

Edited December 21, 2017 by Lordmandeep

[Punishment]

6 minutes ago, RichWS said:

 

Never seen ROTJ. Interested to see his performance in that.

You've never seen ROTJ?  That is very surprising; watch it this break, you must :).

[CJohn]

@MCKillswitch123 180.000 tickets sold over the first full week for TLJ vs 200.000 tickets sold over the first full week for 50SD. Fifty Shades Darker was a monster over Valentine's Day.

 

Fifty Shades Freed opens on Carnival week and VD is on the Wednesday after Carnival Tuesday. I am predicting 275.000 tickets sold over the 7 day period. Might crack the 300.000 tickets sold in 7 days tbh. Theaters will crash. No way they will be ready for that kind of demand. We might witness history, I have never seen a movie selling out 8 days in a row multiple shows a day (50SF will have previews Wednesday Feb 7). It is the most perfectly set calendar it could have here.

[somebody85]

TLJ is a weird movie man. People like Ben Shapiro are even reviewing it (before you bash him, he didn't hate it). The Youtube skeptic community are all over it doing analysis too. Like these guys usually stay out of film. I saw a video that used footage from a cam that tore it apart.

That explains the score to me, because those guys have a giant audience.