Wednesday #s: TLJ 16.9M, Jumanji 7.2M, Greatest Snowman 2.45M

[RandomCat]

Just now, Reyhawk said:

It's gonna be the 2nd best opening week of all-time. Steep drop from TFA sure, but next week is also gonna be massive, it's clear the next set of weekdays are gonna be much bigger than these.

It's kind of insane in it's own way, Avengers just barely makes 200, and TLJ casually steps over it.

 

 Even after RO tainted the audience.

 

 and TFA tainted the audience the year before that.

 

Star Wars fatigue!

[Eric Loves Rey]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

That movie has a huge demographic advantage, well known Asian actors and an empty August. I can see it easily doing 100M. The books are really well known among the community as well. It's an event movie for a demographic which does not see themselves as leads of movies normally.

Not as confident in $100M, but I feel it can breeze past $70M and make a solid case for above $80M for all the reasons you listed.

[That One Girl]

Crazy Rich Asians won't do well.  That August is crowded af and I can only see it getting lost in the shuffle

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, AndyChrono said:

Well there are a few:

 

1. Systematic bias. All of the polls (including the new one from SurveyMonkey) only sampled people on opening day/weekend. For a large franchise with a huge built-in audience like Star Wars, this means that you are mostly sampling the die-hard fans who rushed out to see it. These are easiest folks to please since they are pre-disposed to liking the franchise - hence why they are called die-hard fans. This is why pretty much every major franchise movie gets an easy A on things like Cinemascore. An A- like the prequels is actually pretty bad, and obviously you have BvS where anything in the B range is straight up disastrous. If you can't even get an A from your most die-hard fans, then as Ebert would say, "You're movie sucks."

 

For one yes, franchise will tend to score the most, but the issue people are talking about tend to be issue that those superfans have, those low score on some platform started right away, from those rushing to see it opening night that was pooled, that were the sensation that from the millions fans that rushed to see it Thursday/Friday/Saturday that it is a minority that feel it is a 1/10 type of disaster.

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

Crazy Rich Asians won't do well.  That August is crowded af and I can only see it getting lost in the shuffle

Good point. I can see it crossing 50M, but the director is a biiiiig red flag for quality.

[CenterMeOnSam]

3 minutes ago, AndyChrono said:

Well there are a few:

 

1. Systematic bias. All of the polls (including the new one from SurveyMonkey) only sampled people on opening day/weekend. For a large franchise with a huge built-in audience like Star Wars, this means that you are mostly sampling the die-hard fans who rushed out to see it. These are easiest folks to please since they are pre-disposed to liking the franchise - hence why they are called die-hard fans. This is why pretty much every major franchise movie gets an easy A on things like Cinemascore. An A- like the prequels is actually pretty bad, and obviously you have BvS where anything in the B range is straight up disastrous. If you can't even get an A from your most die-hard fans, then as Ebert would say, "You're movie sucks."

 

2. Margins of error. Cinemascore for instance, has a 6% margin of error. I couldn't find anything about this on comScore and the SurveyMonkey poll, but regardless, ALL scientific polls have margins of error. That means that the an A score on Cinemascore actually involves a range of scores, with the "true value" somewhere in that range. The true value could perhaps be an A+, A-, or even a B+ and still be within the margin of error. Cinemascore would only report an A though. Anyway, the key to remember here is that an A Cinemascore does not mean the true audience reaction is actually an A, just that it's in the ballpark.

 

3. Confidence Intervals. All scientific polls also have confidence intervals. This is basically the chance that the true value will be within the bounds of the margin of error. A very commonly used (perhaps THE most commonly used?) one is the 95% confidence interval. If these audience polls used this, it means that there is a 95% chance that the "true value" is within the margin of error. Of course, this also means that there is a 5% chance that the poll misses completely and the true value falls outside the margin of error.

 

NONE of the 3 audience polls cited thus far give any info as to the confidence interval they use. comScore and the SurveyMonkey poll don't even provide the margins of error. Hence, while user scores on RT, MC, imdb, etc might be junk, the two audience polls that don't provide MoE and CI are little better than junk as well. Cinemascore at least gives the MoE, but remember that this only gives a ballpark figure and it's subject to the systematic bias of polling only on opening day.

 

Two quick counter points--

 

1. Systemic bias really wouldn't apply here. It's a poll of Dec 15-19. It is clearly stated that it is a poll of audiences who saw the movie within this time frame and it even has cross tabs breaking out fans and casual viewers. So, this point is null.

 

2. Your final note stating that Cinemascore being just slightly better than junk science could be true. After all, I don't know the pollsters and I don't know their accuracies, but I do believe there is a chart out there that shows that typically the scores do somewhat line up with box office results.

 

And the SurveyMonkey poll is FAR more than junk. SurveyMonkey is a reputable surveying company that has shown great results both in the public and private field. I have personally worked with them in my work. In fact, the last state senate race I worked on, we used SurveyMonkey exclusively and their final survey for us was off by less than a point. They are a good resource and should be treated as such. They aren't junk. NOW, after saying that, they haven't released their internals and cross tabs, so there could still be problems with the poll that I am unaware of.

[REC]

2 minutes ago, CenterMeOnSam said:

I have personally worked with them in my work. In fact, the last state senate race I worked on, we used SurveyMonkey exclusively and their final survey for us was off by less than a point. They are a good resource and should be treated as such. They aren't junk. NOW, after saying that, they haven't released their internals and cross tabs, so there could still be problems with the poll that I am unaware of.

You're saying there are known knowns and known unknowns, as well as unknown knowns and the even more rare unknown unknowns?

[Valonqar]

11 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Crazy Rich Asians won't do well.  That August is crowded af and I can only see it getting lost in the shuffle

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

 

CRA must do well so that they make Rich People's Problems which is a masterpiece. 

[zackzack]

21 hours ago, That One Guy said:

Star Wars: The Last Childhood

[Deep Wang]

38 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

I think the biggest difference between critics and audience scores on RT, happened to The Boondock Saints.

 

Movie got 20% on RT and the audience score is at 91%. So, why didn't we hear any "bot talk" about this and other 50 movies that had different scores with bot critics and audiences?

 

So did bots inflate The Boondock Saints Score? Did Bots inflate the other movies too?

 

How are you even making this comparison?  You are joking right?

[Ryan Reynolds]

no positive spin if TLJ doesn't increase today

[cannastop]

Just now, Ryan Reynolds said:

no positive spin if TLJ doesn't increase today

It definitely will. More people off school.

[Deep Wang]

29 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Crazy Rich Asians won't do well. 

Where's that list @MrPink

[NCsoft]

1 minute ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

no positive spin if TLJ doesn't increase today

If it doesn't, that's horrible news for TLJ.

[WrathOfHan]

PSA: Fandango has Downsizing tickets $5 off today only.

[filmnerdjamie]

Just now, Ryan Reynolds said:

no positive spin if TLJ doesn't increase today

It'll increase. Gearing up for the weekend.

[AndyChrono]

4 minutes ago, CenterMeOnSam said:

 

Two quick counter points--

 

1. Systemic bias really wouldn't apply here. It's a poll of Dec 15-19. It is clearly stated that it is a poll of audiences who saw the movie within this time frame and it even has cross tabs breaking out fans and casual viewers. So, this point is null.

 

2. Your final note stating that Cinemascore being just slightly better than junk science could be true. After all, I don't know the pollsters and I don't know their accuracies, but I do believe there is a chart out there that shows that typically the scores do somewhat line up with box office results.

 

And the SurveyMonkey poll is FAR more than junk. SurveyMonkey is a reputable surveying company that has shown great results both in the public and private field. I have personally worked with them in my work. In fact, the last state senate race I worked on, we used SurveyMonkey exclusively and their final survey for us was off by less than a point. They are a good resource and should be treated as such. They aren't junk. NOW, after saying that, they haven't released their internals and cross tabs, so there could still be problems with the poll that I am unaware of.

1. Does that really rule out systematic bias? It's a fundamental problem that people who show up on opening weekend are going to be the more diehard fans. The cross tabs can give some insight into how "non-fans" feel (it appears they like it less than fans 81 vs 89), but the overall result will still involve some guesswork on their part. Unless they somehow have an overall breakdown of the proportion of Star Wars fans relative to the entire movie-going population it's unlikely they will be able to filter it out completely. All they can do is find out the proportion of self-described fans among those that do show up and then do some weighting. But that doesn't solve the problem of the people showing up mostly already being fans. Then again, I don't work in the polling industry, so if you have any insight on how they would accomplish that I'm all ears. Even if we grant that the SurveyMonkey poll somehow accurately weighted the responses to filter it out, that still leaves comScore and Cinemascore open to bias.

 

2. There is a chart on Cinemascore, but it nonetheless only presents the averages. There are a wide range of results which make up those averages. For instance, just in the A range we have films like Power Rangers and Civil War which barely pulled a 2x, to Wonder Woman with a 4x, and then Avatar which got within striking distance of a 10x. I think it's pretty clear in hindsight that Avatar was either a pure miss by Cinemascore or at least on the A+ side of the margin of error. Power Rangers and Civil War were probably closer to an A- or B+.

 

3. I did not mean that as a bash of the company. Nonetheless, as you say, they have not released the details of this particular poll so we really don't know how to treat their data.

[Lordmandeep]

It should increase 10% today or its gonna be like this on here. 

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

Daily Domestic Chart for Wednesday December 20th, 2017

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Chart Index

 

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	(1)	Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Las…	Walt Disney	$16,889,863	-17%	4,232	$3,991	$278,710,009	6
2	new	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	Sony Pictures	$7,208,112		3,765	$1,915	$7,208,112	1
3	new	The Greatest Showman	20th Century Fox	$2,451,071		3,006	$815	$2,451,071	1
4	(2)	Ferdinand	20th Century Fox	$1,382,597	-23%	3,621	$382	$17,794,594	6
5	(3)	Coco	Walt Disney	$1,191,797	-30%	3,155	$378	$154,806,361	29
6	(4)	Wonder	Lionsgate	$860,464	-29%	3,047	$282	$112,025,604	34
7	(8)	The Disaster Artist	A24	$431,639	-21%	1,010	$427	$14,452,141	20
8	(10)	The Star	Sony Pictures	$412,591	-18%	1,491	$277	$36,588,180	34
9	(5)	Justice League	Warner Bros.	$406,036	-45%	2,208	$184	$221,258,600	34
10	(7)	Thor: Ragnarok	Walt Disney	$383,763	-36%	1,895	$203	$307,950,094	48
11	(6)	Daddy’s Home 2	Paramount Pictures	$337,933	-45%	2,493	$136	$98,004,239	41
12	(11)	Lady Bird	A24	$310,964	-22%	947	$328	$27,005,402	48
13	(9)	Murder on the Orient Express	20th Century Fox	$263,377	-50%	1,200	$219	$98,500,838	41
14	(13)	The Shape of Water	Fox Searchlight	$238,223	-13%	158	$1,508	$4,352,413	20
-	(12)	Three Billboards Outside Eb…	Fox Searchlight	$203,428	-26%	707	$288	$22,037,333	41
-	(-)	Darkest Hour	Focus Features	$132,410	-3%	84	$1,576	$2,723,082	29
-	(14)	A Bad Moms Christmas	STX Entertainment	$108,005	-54%	1,038	$104	$71,285,748	50
-	(-)	Roman J. Israel, Esq.	Sony Pictures	$13,297	-50%	173	$77	$11,792,021	34
-	(-)	Blade Runner 2049	Warner Bros.	$10,608	-57%	100	$106	$91,513,281	76
-	(-)	Geostorm	Warner Bros.	$9,864	-11%	165	$60	$33,414,282	62
-	(-)	Jigsaw	Lionsgate	$9,546	-43%	181	$53	$38,042,700	55
-	(-)	Despicable Me 3	Universal	$8,540	+58%	109	$78	$264,616,370	174
-	(-)	The Florida Project	A24	$8,050	-22%	66	$122	$5,156,748	76
-	(-)	The Foreigner	STX Entertainment	$4,973	-15%	93	$53	$34,388,075	69
-	(-)	Kingsman: The Golden Circle	20th Century Fox	$4,684	-3%	92	$51	$100,193,920	90
-	(-)	The Mountain Between Us	20th Century Fox	$3,975	-44%	112	$35	$30,343,608	76
-	(-)	Victoria and Abdul	Focus Features	$3,840	-34%	56	$69	$22,192,070	90
-	(-)	The Killing of a Sacred Deer	A24	$2,447	-29%	23	$106	$2,282,964	62
-	(-)	Marshall	Open Road	$2,208	-32%	71	$31	$9,434,724	69
-	(-)	Last Flag Flying	Amazon Studios	$841	-51%	18	$47	$964,323	48
-	(-)	Let There Be Light	Atlas Distribution	$583	-56%	32	$18	$7,200,606	55
-	(-)	Same Kind of Different as Me	Pure Flix Entertain…	$131	-58%	7	$19	$6,360,198	62

  The Star beat Justice League yesterday...unbelievable...and it will probably do it again today, before fading off after Dec 25:)...

[Alli]

August 2018 is full. so much competition. something's gotta move

Edited December 21, 2017 by Alli