Wednesday #s: TLJ 16.9M, Jumanji 7.2M, Greatest Snowman 2.45M

[Lordmandeep]

Imo I am not buying this theory that people that had issues with this movie are some fringe alt right types or neckbeards.

 

Also, a lot of people liked the film but had major issues with certain plot twists, which upset them as SW fans. They respect the filmmaking but not some of the storyline choices. 

 

but hey we shall find out soon enough which side is right. 

 

 

 

[EmpireCity]

Oh, you guys are still talking about the same self driven non-data based incomplete narrative?

 

25 pages now?  Lol.  

[Finnick]

WOW, Thor closing on JL on daily numbers, will soon overtake it if it holds well on theater numbers!! Didn't see that coming, just WOW, 

 

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	(1)	Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Las…	Walt Disney	$16,889,863	-17%	4,232	$3,991	$278,710,009	6
2	new	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	Sony Pictures	$7,200,000		3,765	$1,912	$7,200,000	1
3	new	The Greatest Showman	20th Century Fox	$2,500,000		3,005	$832	$2,500,000	1
-	(3)	Coco	Walt Disney	$1,191,797	-30%	3,155	$378	$154,806,361	29
-	(4)	Wonder	Lionsgate	$860,464	-29%	3,047	$282	$112,025,604	34
-	(8)	The Disaster Artist	A24	$431,639	-21%	1,010	$427	$14,452,141	20
-	(5)	Justice League	Warner Bros.	$406,036	-45%	2,208	$184	$221,258,600	34
-	(7)	Thor: Ragnarok	Walt Disney	$383,763	-36%	1,895	$203	$307,950,094	48
-	(6)	Daddy’s Home 2	Paramount Pictures	$337,933	-45%	2,493	$136	$98,004,239	41
-	(11)	Lady Bird	A24	$310,964	-22%	947	$328	$27,005,402	48
-	(-)	Darkest Hour	Focus Features	$132,410	-3%	84	$1,576	$2,723,082	29
-	(14)	A Bad Moms Christmas	STX Entertainment	$108,005	-54%	1,038	$104	$71,285,748	50
-	(-)	Blade Runner 2049	Warner Bros.	$10,608	-57%	100	$106	$91,513,281	76
-	(-)	Geostorm	Warner Bros.	$9,864	-11%	165	$60	$33,414,282	62
-	(-)	Jigsaw	Lionsgate	$9,546	-43%	181	$53	$38,042,700	55
-	(-)	Despicable Me 3	Universal	$8,540	+58%	109	$78	$264,616,370	174
-	(-)	The Florida Project	A24	$8,050	-22%	66	$122	$5,156,748	76
-	(-)	The Foreigner	STX Entertainment	$4,973	-15%	93	$53	$34,388,075	69
-	(-)	Victoria and Abdul	Focus Features	$3,840	-34%	56	$69	$22,192,070	90
-	(-)	The Killing of a Sacred Deer	A24	$2,447	-29%	23	$106	$2,282,964	62
-	(-)	Marshall	Open Road	$2,208	-32%	71	$31	$9,434,724	69
-	(-)	Last Flag Flying	Amazon Studios	$841	-51%	18	$47	$964,323	48
-	(-)	Let There Be Light	Atlas Distribution	$583	-56%	32	$18	$7,200,606	55

Edited December 21, 2017 by Finnick

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, CenterMeOnSam said:

 

I don't see any type of bias in these polls, but I don't have access to the internals so I can not say for certain. 

 

The methods are on the up and up for a highly accurate statistical representation of a weighted random sample. 

Yes, but even if they are (and let me bring up something not talked about yesterday), then you can have the problem of choice-supportive bias.  Those who paid for tickets over another entertainment option will ascribe more favorable characteristics to the choice they chose vs the one they didn't (which could be either a. buying a ticket to a movie at all or b. buying a ticket for x vs y)...I mean, it's one reason you see such high grades for these movies coming out (have you seen the Cinemascores for the last 4 movies out?)...and you can't take a poll after a movie and hold for this...you can't know that while my brother finds his money well spent (he chose it), he wouldn't find my money now well spent...

 

It's reason #1241 why nothing except the bottom line dollar posted will give you a perfectly "scientific" answer...it's why using all sorts of info (even non-scientific info that may turn perception into reality  - ie an availability cascade) is helpful...

 

If this was all just "use this score and we know WOM is awesome", well, we wouldn't have much to talk about...

 

 

[CenterMeOnSam]

1 minute ago, REC said:

Ok I'll grant you that because I probably shouldn't have used the word fact right there, that's too extreme.  It's an indicator that these social media boards are probably not being taken over by bots and extreme fans.  As Disney would have us believe.

 

That's their spin.  They might be looking at lower than expected numbers so they're gonna try to put a positive spin on things right?  They need to pre-butt any potential drop off, say its the fault of manbabies or superfans.  It certainly couldn't be because they made a miscalculation with the product.  I get that.

 

It's the same playbook Sony used against anyone who criticized Ghostbusters 2016.  Who knows maybe that spin will work for them.

I also don't believe there is an orchestrated campaign to lower these scores.

 

I think the real answer is simpler: those metrics don't accurately measure the ranking of a film, but the views of those who are the most motivated to have their opinion heard. It's a bit of "self-report bias."

 

I think you have a percentage of SW fans who are highly motivated and vocal about their dislike of this film. If you liked or loved the film, your motivation to get something off your chest is probably less so. And if you just liked the film, there's probably no motivation to go to an online website and write a review at all. 

 

So, if you have a small group of people who hate this film and give it one star or zero star ratings everywhere, and those who liked or loved the film and are content don't feel the need to go to the internet to defend a movie with high star ratings, then the small group of negative folks are going to have a lot of power.

 

It's the same issue that makes online "polls" garbage.

[RichWS]

The weekday threads have been this over and over and over and over....

 

[Brainbug]

TLJ's drop seems actually very good compared to other films based on these numbers^^.

[Blaze Heatnix]

I think the biggest difference between critics and audience scores on RT, happened to The Boondock Saints.

 

Movie got 20% on RT and the audience score is at 91%. So, why didn't we hear any "bot talk" about this and other 50 movies that had different scores with bot critics and audiences?

 

So did bots inflate The Boondock Saints Score? Did Bots inflate the other movies too?

 

I didn't mind Star Wars The Last Jedi. I think I'm grey member( I can see why people loved the movie and I can see why people hated it. I'm the balance. lol ). 

 

That being said, the numbers have been overall great worldwide, but the divisive reaction exists. So, there's that.

[CenterMeOnSam]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

Yes, but even if they are (and let me bring up something not talked about yesterday), then you can have the problem of choice-supportive bias.  Those who paid for tickets over another entertainment option will ascribe more favorable characteristics to the choice they chose vs the one they didn't (which could be either a. buying a ticket to a movie at all or b. buying a ticket for x vs y)...I mean, it's one reason you see such high grades for these movies coming out (have you seen the Cinemascores for the last 4 movies out?)...and you can't take a poll after a movie and hold for this...you can't know that while my brother finds his money well spent (he chose it), he wouldn't find my money now well spent...

 

It's reason #1241 why nothing except the bottom line dollar posted will give you a perfectly "scientific" answer...it's why using all sorts of info (even non-scientific info that may turn perception into reality  - ie an availability cascade) is helpful...

 

If this was all just "use this score and we know WOM is awesome", well, we wouldn't have much to talk about...

 

 

 

This is a perfectly fine conclusion to come to.

 

Yes, a sample can be tainted and a sample can even lie to you. Response bias is typical. We try to weigh that out to the best of our ability by having a large enough sample size that reflects an accurate picture of who is coming out to see it. If you are a good pollster, and I have no reason to believe the people at CinemaScore or SurveyMonkey are not, then you are able to work your results into a reasonably accurate margin of error. 

 

If you aren't, then your point stands. Response bias could be very real and box office numbers would be helpful to try to connect those lines.

 

But the POLL itself is not bias. I think we can agree on that. 

[EmpireCity]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Yes, but even if they are (and let me bring up something not talked about yesterday), then you can have the problem of choice-supportive bias.  Those who paid for tickets over another entertainment option will ascribe more favorable characteristics to the choice they chose vs the one they didn't (which could be either a. buying a ticket to a movie at all or b. buying a ticket for x vs y)...I mean, it's one reason you see such high grades for these movies coming out (have you seen the Cinemascores for the last 4 movies out?)...and you can't take a poll after a movie and hold for this...you can't know that while my brother finds his money well spent (he chose it), he wouldn't find my money now well spent...

 

It's reason #1241 why nothing except the bottom line dollar posted will give you a perfectly "scientific" answer...it's why using all sorts of info (even non-scientific info that may turn perception into reality  - ie an availability cascade) is helpful...

 

If this was all just "use this score and we know WOM is awesome", well, we wouldn't have much to talk about...

 

 

Do you have a link or researched basis proving this data that people who paid for tickets over another entertainment option will ascribe more favorable characteristics to the choice they chose vs the one they didn't?

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Haven't really read through the thread at all, but TLJ drop seems to have been a correction due to the drop on Tuesday. Much lower than most other films. We should see an increase today, correct?

Edited December 21, 2017 by Reyhawk

[WrathOfHan]

13 minutes ago, grim22 said:

WB release slate for 2018 (prior to A Star is Born moving to October). Looks like Tomb Raider is 2D only, and their summer slate is pretty light offering alternatives to blockbusters, Oceans 8 I think will do really well so will Crazy Rich Asians. The Nun will do typical Conjuring numbers. Kind of shocked that RPO or Rampage weren't moved to Summer. Their biggest movies will be the last 2 releases of the year

 

Their slate between The Nun and FB looks bad. Crazy Rich Asians is from the guy that brought you these gems:

 

GI Joe: Retaliation

BOTH Justin Bieber documentaries

Jem and the Holograms 

 

I'd be careful with that one  

[Brainbug]

And btw, we are very much spoiled by SW box office. I mean, this thing will do 300M in ONE week, give or take a few millions.

 

Thats incredible.

[grim22]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Their slate between The Nun and FB looks bad. Crazy Rich Asians is from the guy that brought you these gems:

 

GI Joe: Retaliation

BOTH Justin Bieber documentaries

Jem and the Holograms 

 

I'd be careful with that one  

That movie has a huge demographic advantage, well known Asian actors and an empty August. I can see it easily doing 100M. The books are really well known among the community as well. It's an event movie for a demographic which does not see themselves as leads of movies normally.

[Barnack]

9 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Yes, but even if they are (and let me bring up something not talked about yesterday), then you can have the problem of choice-supportive bias.  Those who paid for tickets over another entertainment option will ascribe more favorable characteristics to the choice they chose vs the one they didn't (which could be either a. buying a ticket to a movie at all or b. buying a ticket for x vs y)...I mean, it's one reason you see such high grades for these movies coming out (have you seen the Cinemascores for the last 4 movies out?)...and you can't take a poll after a movie and hold for this...you can't know that while my brother finds his money well spent (he chose it), he wouldn't find my money now well spent...

That sound probable, but everyone that would ever have an opinion about that movie (or any movie) will always be on that boat, except for special screening event type of people and those has the I am feeling special to have seen it before everyone else experience that is a worst bias.

 

And it is those people opinion that matter.

Edited December 21, 2017 by Barnack

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

Do you have a link or researched basis proving this data that people who paid for tickets over another entertainment option will ascribe more favorable characteristics to the choice they chose vs the one they didn't?

Ummm, we could get into a scholarly article discussion, but wiki is probably the most accessible place for people on the board to understand it:)...

 

I mean, this is not high school stuff:)...https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Choice-supportive_bias

[WrathOfHan]

I'm thinking the only reason A Star Is Born was moved back to the fall is so Lady Gaga's album releases closer to the Grammys. It's going to get squashed by Venom, First Man, and Halloween considering the early screenings are mixed.

Edited December 21, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, Reyhawk said:

Haven't really read through the thread at all, but TLJ drop seems to have been a correction due to the drop on Tuesday. Much lower than most other films. We should see an increase today, no?

 

Should increase at least 10%. I'm going with $19.5m, which is roughly 15.4% increase. $20m is in play too (18.3% increase). Here are the 2006 numbers on same Thursday:

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?view=1day&sortdate=2006-12-21&p=.htm

 

December 15th openers

Pursuit of Happyness - 14.2% increase on Thursday

Eragon - 12.6% increase on Thursday

Charlotte's Web - 15.7% increase on Thursday

 

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

And btw, we are very much spoiled by SW box office. I mean, this thing will do 300M in ONE week, give or take a few millions.

 

Thats incredible.

It's gonna be the 2nd best opening week of all-time. Steep drop from TFA sure, but next week is also gonna be massive, it's clear the next set of weekdays are gonna be much bigger than these.

[AndyChrono]

Just now, Barnack said:

What would be there problems and bias too ?

Well there are a few:

 

1. Systematic bias. All of the polls (including the new one from SurveyMonkey) only sampled people on opening day/weekend. For a large franchise with a huge built-in audience like Star Wars, this means that you are mostly sampling the die-hard fans who rushed out to see it. These are easiest folks to please since they are pre-disposed to liking the franchise - hence why they are called die-hard fans. This is why pretty much every major franchise movie gets an easy A on things like Cinemascore. An A- like the prequels is actually pretty bad, and obviously you have BvS where anything in the B range is straight up disastrous. If you can't even get an A from your most die-hard fans, then as Ebert would say, "You're movie sucks."

 

2. Margins of error. Cinemascore for instance, has a 6% margin of error. I couldn't find anything about this on comScore and the SurveyMonkey poll, but regardless, ALL scientific polls have margins of error. That means that the an A score on Cinemascore actually involves a range of scores, with the "true value" somewhere in that range. The true value could perhaps be an A+, A-, or even a B+ and still be within the margin of error. Cinemascore would only report an A though. Anyway, the key to remember here is that an A Cinemascore does not mean the true audience reaction is actually an A, just that it's in the ballpark.

 

3. Confidence Intervals. All scientific polls also have confidence intervals. This is basically the chance that the true value will be within the bounds of the margin of error. A very commonly used (perhaps THE most commonly used?) one is the 95% confidence interval. If these audience polls used this, it means that there is a 95% chance that the "true value" is within the margin of error. Of course, this also means that there is a 5% chance that the poll misses completely and the true value falls outside the margin of error.

 

NONE of the 3 audience polls cited thus far give any info as to the confidence interval they use. comScore and the SurveyMonkey poll don't even provide the margins of error. Hence, while user scores on RT, MC, imdb, etc might be junk, the two audience polls that don't provide MoE and CI are little better than junk as well. Cinemascore at least gives the MoE, but remember that this only gives a ballpark figure and it's subject to the systematic bias of polling only on opening day.