4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[XO21]

The trolls are having fun -I guess- seeing from the comments below Gitesh’s tweet...so much nonsense.

 

When JJ fanservice Episode IX makes -only- $700m, a bump similar from Clones to Sith...I’m 100% sure the excuse will be Episode VIII hurt the franchise..

Edited December 23, 2017 by XO21

[Brainbug]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

 

What if the 3rd weekend is 20-30% higher than second weekend? That’s the trend in 2006. Would be fun to watch something like that happen. 

 

Looking at the 2006 New Years weekend, that would be awesome to see. Though TLJ posts way bigger numbers than any of the 06 movies, that could depress the rise i guess.

[MovieMan89]

If it's 65 or any lower for the weekend, then I'd put it on track for right around 660. If it finishes at 666m, Rian as the SW antichrist confirmed. 

[a2k]

please stop comparing with bvs due to a coincidental scheduling-induced drop. even 80 fss would have been down 64%. mon and tue could both be bigger than sunday and sat.

 

on coming thu, day 14th, at the latest it will cross 440 and 2.0x multiplier that bvs hit in the entire run (well 1.99x). so even as the numbers come in lower that we expected and 700 is not locked, why bring in a movie like bvs because of one quirky weekend drop.

 

edit:

infact aou is a better comp : great ow - small drop from record ow of predecessor, huge ww, but due to legs/expectations folks feel underwhelmed. if sw8 shows the same drop from sw7 that aou showed from ta, then it gets 691 dom (460/623*937)

Edited December 23, 2017 by a2knet

[Lordmandeep]

2 minutes ago, XO21 said:

The trolls are having fun -I guess- seeing from the comments below Gitesh’s tweet...so much nonsense.

 

When JJ fanservice Episode IX makes -only- $700m, a bump similar from Clones to Sith...I’m 100% sure the excuse will be Episode VIII hurt the franchise..

 

 

You think a Rian Johnson Episode 9 would do 700 million? 

 

Never 

 

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

Personally, I don't think so. Can't see him ever directing another film after this divided reaction (and this kind of drop-off).

 

They'll develop it, pay his salary and call it day - which certainly happens all the time at studios.

I agree...I don't see Disney making a Snyder mistake...they have WB's experience to not end up in the same place.  

 

I mean, remember, MOS was divided but still mostly overall positive WOM - it's biggest WOM problem was that for many, the director didn't "get" what made Superman super and beloved...TLJ seems to be sitting right like MoS with this director now possibly being given the reins to a trilogy (just like Snyder was)...biggest WOM red flag I see for TLJ is that folks say he didn't "get" what made Star Wars great, even if he still made a great movie...

Edited December 23, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, Brainbug said:

 

Looking at the 2006 New Years weekend, that would be awesome to see. Though TLJ posts way bigger numbers than any of the 06 movies, that could depress the rise i guess.

 

That is correct. Look at Rogue One’s 3rd weekend. Much smaller movies were increasing big time and Rogue One dropped 22.5%. I think Last Jedi has a good chance to stay flat (which is awesome), but a 20-30% increase is much harder to expect. 

[Brainbug]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

If it's 65 or any lower for the weekend, then I'd put it on track for right around 660. If it finishes at 666m, Rian as the SW antichrist confirmed. 

 

The funny thing is, that would still be 202M higher than AOTC and 137M higher than ROTS, both adjusted of course.

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

please stop comparing with bvs due to a coincidental scheduling-induced drop. even 80 fss would have been down 64%. mon and tue could both be bigger than sunday and sat.

 

on coming thu, day 14th, at the latest it will cross 440 and 2.0x multiplier that bvs hit in the entire run (well 1.99x). so even as the numbers come in lower that we expected and 700 is not locked, why bring in a movie like bvs because of one quirky weekend drop.

Well, Christmas holidays have a guaranteed bump...so 1.99x at Xmas is not like 1.99x out of Christmas...someone needs to compare holiday movie legs to regular movie legs to see what an equivalent awful legs # to BvS would be for TLJ...there is one, and it's greater than 1.99x, but I don't know what it is...

 

Maybe worst big opener ($25M OW) legs movie released 3rd weekend of Dec or later (so guaranteed full Xmas run) might help...does anyone know it?

[titanic2187]

ANH to ESB, $307m to $209m(-32%)

TPM to ATOC, $431m to $302m or 310m(imax rerelease)(-30% or -28%)

I would say it needs to drop above 32% from TFA for TLJ to be called a disappointment success, which put TLJ be at least $632m, doable still 

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

What if the 3rd weekend is 20-30% higher than second weekend? That’s the trend in 2006. Would be fun to watch something like that happen. 

Most of the movies that did that that year had very low grosses though, except Museum and Happyness. But then you had movies like Rocky Balboa and Eragon that didn't get near that much of a jump.  Pursuit and Museum had great holds. If you look at this Friday from that year, Pursuit jumped 60%+ today. Movies like Rocky Balboa and Eragon only jumped 38-42% today, right in line with TLJ. I'd expect TLJ to follow their holds much more closely than Pursuit or Museum.  Which would indicate a hold between -15%-+15% next weekend. 

[Rebeccas]

12 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

"We won! We won! We convinced Hollywood we prefer safe shit like TFA and meme farms like ROTS over risky and discussion worthy SW movies! And we made the alt right and MRA's feel validated at the same time! We won!"

Lmao as if the alt right is the cause of this. Please sit down. 

[filmnerdjamie]

Again... the age-old rule is the new film will pay for the sins of the last.

 

Episode IX will decrease from The Last Jedi but still open to huge numbers. Nobody in their right mind will stick their nose up at it. The Last Jedi was always going to drop from The Force Awakens by the sheer virtue of how gigantic it was (just like Empire following Star Wars ). It's reaction is what none of us expected.

 

That revisionist history on Empire's initial reaction is provably bullshit by one simple factor (among others). Jedi opened bigger and grossed more overall than Empire. People were dying to see the resolution of the "I am your father" reveal (which was the zeitgeist moment of 1980 next to "Who shot JR?")

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

That is correct. Look at Rogue One’s 3rd weekend. Much smaller movies were increasing big time and Rogue One dropped 22.5%. I think Last Jedi has a good chance to stay flat (which is awesome), but a 20-30% increase is much harder to expect. 

if this fss comes in at 64-66, would guess 55-57 for next fss.

monday will get enough attention in media, but tue+wed+thu will rake in the mullah too. the fss then could drop close to 15% imo.

[redfirebird2008]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Most of the movies that did that that year had very low grosses though, except Museum and Happyness. But then you had movies like Rocky Balboa and Eragon that didn't get near that much of a jump.  Pursuit and Museum had great holds. If you look at this Friday from that year, Pursuit jumped 60%+ today. Movies like Rocky Balboa and Eragon only jumped 38-42% today, right in line with TLJ. I'd expect TLJ to follow their holds much more closely than Pursuit or Museum.  Which would indicate a hold between -15%-+15% next weekend. 

 

Agreed. Rogue One dropped 22% while other movies were jumping way over 20% on New Years weekend last year. 

 

I do think Last Jedi could be very close to no drop in 3rd weekend. Maybe 5% drop from 2nd weekend. 

Edited December 23, 2017 by redfirebird2008

[BadAtGender]

10 hours ago, Sam said:

Woo boy. 

 

Be ready for them very deep, dark Pa Kent/Martha themes in Star Wars, @Chewy. You asked for it.

 

Now that I said that, I do kinda want to see it.

 

Those were actually surface themes, and would be the questionable things that could be avoided. I meant more how MoS is exploring the question of what it means to be human, and whether an alien who is very inhuman can connect there. Or how BvS is a treatise on the exploration of power and how its wielded. I'd allow that the execution in both cases was not entirely successful in pulling those themes through, but I appreciate his desire to explore them.

 

Plus, Snyder's pretty vehemently anti-fascist, which would work great in Star Wars' very obviously fascist baddies.

[Hatebox]

3 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

Again... the age-old rule is the new film will pay for the sins of the last.

Although it shouldn't be overstated, there might be a bit of that going on here. TFA really isn't the beloved movie its phenomenal box office suggests. Wonder if the next four (!) Avatar movies should be concerned.

[MovieMan89]

Since the jump today is identical to Eragon in '06, with roughly Eragon holds:

 

Sat: 26.5m (+8%)

Sun: 12m (-55%)

Mon 21m (+75%)

Tue: 28m (+33%)

Wed: 25m (-11%)

Thu: 24m (-4%)

Fri: 28m (+16%)

Sat: 30m (+7%)

Sun: 19m (-37%)

Mon: 25m (+31%)

Total: 560m

[TwoMisfits]

Okay, I went looking for 3rd weekend or later Dec openers of decent box office opening, and I've found Beavis and Butthead Do America, opened Dec 20th and had a $20.1M OW and final BO of $63.1M for legs of 3.14x in 1996.  I also found Eragon, opened Dec 15th and had a $23.2M OW and a final BO of $75.0M for legs of 3.23x in 2006.  Has anyone found any other opener of significant size with a worse holiday multiplier than that?  Is that the level we start to say we get subpar legs? Will anyone agree on a certain leg number being subpar and then one being outright bad for a holiday opener?

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Since the jump today is identical to Eragon in '06, with roughly Eragon holds:

 

Sat: 26.5m (+8%)

Sun: 12m (-55%)

Mon 21m (+75%)

Tue: 28m (+33%)

Wed: 25m (-11%)

Thu: 24m (-4%)

Fri: 28m (+16%)

Sat: 30m (+7%)

Sun: 19m (-37%)

Mon: 25m (+31%)

Total: 560m

We were doing the same work on different points...the chances Eragon popped up in back to back posts 11 years later...almost nil?:)