4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Christmas baumer said:

  think Christmas day is going to be enormous this year. I wouldn't be surprised if both Star Wars and Jumanji have increases north of 125%.

Only thing possibly holding that back would be how many theaters don't open early...one of my locals is not opening til noon, so all the regular 9/10am shows for TLJ and Jumamji (yes, they were packed early here:) are not running, cutting showtimes to only 1 more than Christmas Eve gets...in this area, it's about 50/50 split on what opens regular time and what is delaying...

[franfar]

Alright I'm about to see Star wars

[RobinHood26]

4 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I want to call these people ignorant, but i cant. Box office is something 99,9% of the "normal" people are just not familiar with.

 

I posted next weekends chart from 2006 to some people. Not sure why I think I can help. 

[WrathOfHan]

Jesus, Michael Haneke's new movie bombed horrendously:

 

26

N

Happy End

SPC

$23,800

-

33

-

$721

$23,800

-

1

[LinksterAC]

It's too early to plot TLJ's final course, and the water is way too murky on the subject of its WOM.

 

Everybody I speak to in person likes or loves TLJ.  Die-hards I speak to on the internet are having roiling debates.

 

I know that's anecdotal, but there's a substantial gap between RT and IMDB, and then again between IMDB and CinemaScore and comScore.  

 

I think we're all filling in those gaps with our own biases.

 

Friday and Saturday numbers certainly are not stellar for TLJ.  They're certainly not bad, either.  We'll know a lot more on Christmas Day.

 

 

Edited December 24, 2017 by LinksterAC

[The Panda]

Yeah, id definitely say we need to wait TLJ out to see how WoM is.  The Holidays are pretty volatile for individual days, and it's hard to make comparisons because any recent comps have a completely different calendar and any comparable calendars are so far back that there's been major structural industry changes since then.

[Yandereprime101189]

Unless you have Jason and/or Bourne in the title, looks like Matt Damon can't catch a break at all.

[bamajagala]

1 hour ago, Christmas baumer said:

Everything you just said here is wrong.

Exactly. I've followed the box office for 20 years and been a part time investment advisor for 10+ years and have found there to be 2 types of people when it comes to numbers: those who study the financials, technicals, and fundamentals and do their due diligence and those that don't. 

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

Unless you have Jason and/or Bourne in the title, looks like Matt Damon can't catch a break at all.

Or The Martian.

[Yandereprime101189]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Or The Martian.

 

Well, that's an exception

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, bamajagala said:

Exactly. I've followed the box office for 20 years and been a part time investment advisor for 10+ years and have found there to be 2 types of people when it comes to numbers: those who study the financials, technicals, and fundamentals and do their due diligence and those that don't. 

 

 

 

 

[Eric Prime]

Quick thoughts:

 

-Star Wars had a bad drop mainly due to it being Xmas Eve, and it's clear the film's WOM isn't the strongest, but it's still very impressive, and it's on track to being the third biggest movie domestically. Although it will be interesting to see what Disney will do going forward.

 

-Jumanji did stellar work, which definitely surprised me. I guess starpower and a good concept really does work wonders during the holiday season. Good to see Sony has a new potential franchise under their belt, even though I can't see how a Jumanji sequel would work.

 

-Pitch Perfect 3 did atrocious. But in hindsight, I guess it made sense. Looking at the previews, the film screamed "we ran out of ideas, and we're trying to see what sticks," at least to me. Even though it'll probably break even, it's definitely a sour note to end on for the series.

 

-Greatest Showman did about what I expected. A nice $70-80M gross.

 

-Downsizing and Father Figures were LOL-tastic. Not much else to add there.

 

-'CMBYN, Darkest Hour, and Shape of Water had great expansions. The last two seem on track to gross above $50M, while Call Me seems poised for a solid $25M and secure all there Best Picture noms, so kudos to them.

 

-Lady Bird outgrossed Moonlight to become A24's biggest movie. Wonderful to see.

 

-The Post had a great OW and PTA. I can't wait to see what Molly's Game and Phantom Thread do tomorrow.

 

-I, Tonya seems kinda weak, but it could pick up some steam during January and February and make around something like Room, or at the very least The Lobster.

[Porthos]

It's from several pages back.  But for everyone using the word 'fatigue':

 

 

===

 

I'm not even joking.  No sign of SW fatigue.  No sign of Marvel fatigue.  No sign of Pixar fatigue. Hell, no sign of even superhero fatigue, as WW showed.

 

Make a good flick with a built in fanbase, and they'll come out in droves. That's all there is to it.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

I'm not even joking.  No sign of SW fatigue.  No sign of Marvel fatigue.  No sign of Pixar fatigue. Hell, no sign of even superhero fatigue, as WW showed.

 

Make a good flick with a built in fanbase, and they'll come out in droves. That's all there is to it.

 

There will never be any fatigue for any of these brands as long as they deliver good movies.

[RandomCat]

Let me see... SWVIII has made 365M by the second weekend, 745M WW total, and that's a sign of fatigue. 

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Shape of Water will be my family's Christmas Day movie. Going to see The Post with them sometime this week as well.

[JonathanLB]

26 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

It's too early to plot TLJ's final course, and the water is way too murky on the subject of it's WOM.

 

Everybody I speak to in person likes or loves TLJ.  Die-hards I speak to on the internet are having roiling debates.

 

I know that's anecdotal, but there's a substantial gap between RT and IMDB, and then again between IMDB and CinemaScore and comScore.  

 

I think we're all filling in those gaps with our own biases.

 

Friday and Saturday numbers certainly are not stellar for TLJ.  They're certainly not bad, either.  We'll know a lot more on Christmas Day.

 

 

This post is just about perfect.

 

I will side with the “bashers” that I now do believe it’s fair to say many die hard Star Wars fans really don’t like TLJ. It pissed them off. I even got an email from my top cinematographer asking me if he should see the movie because his good friend is a huge fan and he hated it. Uhh ok lol. And if you survey the forums for Star Wars, it’s a battleground.

 

Based on what I hear after each viewing and the exit polling and all of that, the general audience likes and loves the movie. But imagine each fan knows at least 50 people, conservatively, and now posts to social media about how much it sucks. Everyone knows this person is the resident “Star Wars fan.” They think wow if this big fan didn’t even like it maybe we wait for home video with this one huh?

 

Am I saying that’s whats happening? No I’m not at all. How the fuck do I know, it’s hubris to make these statements like facts. But it could be happening. I humbly will say I simply don’t know.

 

I heard several people say TLJ is too different and went in directions that were unfamiliar to Star Wars, and then I just heard two people say it wasn’t original at all and just a retread. To me that’s when I know not to take criticism seriously whatsoever. Can’t even agree on what’s wrong lol. It reminds me of TPM, “It’s too kiddie!” and same person “too much political intrigue and senate meetings.” You get it one way or the other, not both. Unless logical reasoning fails you then it’s either kiddie or it’s too adult and political, pick a fucking argument and go with that.

[WrathOfHan]

FORECASTS:

 

Jumanji:

 

Remainder of this week: 55.2M (105.8M Total)

Dec 29: 45M (31.5M weekdays, 182.3M Total)

Jan 5: 32M (8.2M weekdays, 222.5M Total)

Jan 12: 20M (7M weekdays, 254M Total)

Jan 19: 13M (3.7M weekdays, 270.7M Total)

Jan 26: 7.8M (2.2M weekdays, 280.7M Total)

Feb 2: 4.9M (1.7M weekdays, 287.3M Total)

Feb 9: 2.8M (900k weekdays, 291M Total)

Feb 16: 1.6M (800k weekdays, 293.4M Total)

Feb 23: 1M (400k weekdays, 294.8M Total)

Total: 297M (8.74x from 3 day/5.87x from 5 day)

 

Call me crazy, but I think this will get pretty damn close to 300M! The schedule just works out in its favor so much.

 

PP3:

 

Remainder of this week: 15.5M (36M Total)

Dec 29: 9.2M (6.1M weekdays, 51.3M Total)

Jan 5: 5.5M (1.8M weekdays, 58.6M Total)

Jan 12: 3.2M (1.5M weekdays, 63.3M Total)

Jan 19: 1.6M (500k weekdays, 65.4M Total)

Final Total: 68M (3.32x)

 

Just........ yeah. This might not even pass Bad Moms Christmas ffs.

[John Marston]

wondering why The Post didn't go wide considering the big names behind it

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

There will never be any fatigue for any of these brands as long as they deliver good movies.

I wasn't around for the run, so I don't know how the run was received, but I think Logan is an even better example than Wonder Woman.

 

You have an R rated movie do nearly the same amount of money as a PG-13 film did domestically in the same series three years earlier on a fraction of the budget.  Throw in the WW gross and you have a smash-hit relatively speaking.  At a 200m+ budget, DoFP was a disappointment all things considered.  At a 100m- budget, Logan was a massive success.

 

Now maybe I'm wrong.  I mean, It showed that an R-rated film that hits the zeitgeist just right can do bonkers money.  But, I dunno, Logan's run (no pun intended) looks pretty good to me, in context.  And a sign that even in a franchise that is on the downswing can still surprise if a quality movie is delivered.