4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[MovieMan89]

There will be two more years of inflation for IX. If it can't hit 200 when TFA will be pushing 300 adjusted, then that would mean TLJ will have had far worse WOM than any of us even imagined. TLJ's OW should be the floor for IX's, or something went wrong. 

[The Mad Titan]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

There will be two more years of inflation for IX. If it can't hit 200 when TFA will be pushing 300 adjusted, then that would mean TLJ will have had far worse WOM than any of us even imagined. TLJ's OW should be the floor for IX's, or something went wrong. 

You don't get that much inflation in 4 years. $250 million in 2007 isn't even $300 million today. TFA, adjusted for inflation, is only at about $258 million right now. 

[junkshop36]

33 minutes ago, DMan7 said:

Anyone else think this reception to TLJ might affect Episode 9 OW. Over / Under 200M OW?

 

I think so. I can see it doing 190-200 OW but if it has better WOM it can leg it’s way past TLJ

[MovieMan89]

Just now, GadnukBreakerOfWorlds said:

You don't get that much inflation in 4 years. $250 million in 2007 isn't even $300 million today. TFA, adjusted for inflation, is only at about $258 million right now. 

Wouldn't it be more lower 260's? I didn't mean it would actually be at 300. If averages keep jumping so much every year, it would be at like 280 though by the end of 2019. 

[FTF]

3 minutes ago, GadnukBreakerOfWorlds said:

You don't get that much inflation in 4 years. $250 million in 2007 isn't even $300 million today. TFA, adjusted for inflation, is only at about $258 million right now. 

 

lol thanks...was about to post how you don't get $50m in inflation in 4 years.

[The Mad Titan]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Wouldn't it be more lower 260's? I didn't mean it would actually be at 300. If averages keep jumping so much every year, it would be at like 280 though by the end of 2019. 

I'm using USD inflation percentages. Are you using average ticket prices? 

[MovieMan89]

Just now, GadnukBreakerOfWorlds said:

I'm using USD inflation percentages. Are you using average ticket prices? 

Yes, because I'm talking in terms of admissions. 

[JonathanLB]

I still want someone to nerd out for me and tell me since 1980 what the average length of time a movie holds the opening weekend record for  It cannot be that long right? I know #1 domestic can last a long time, even a decade. But the OW record I feel like has traditionally been something broken every few years.

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

I still want someone to nerd out for me and tell me since 1980 what the average length of time a movie holds the opening weekend record for  It cannot be that long right? I know #1 domestic can last a long time, even a decade. But the OW record I feel like has traditionally been something broken every few years.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/pastrecords.htm

 

The average is probably less than 2 years. The stretch between '97 and '06 was unusual though, since there were two movies that held it for a whopping 4 years in that time frame. Looks like Temple of Doom, Lost World, Spider-Man, The Dark Knight, and The Avengers are the only ones to hang on for more than two and a half years. 

 

I know most will disagree with me, but a little under two and a half years is what I expect TFA gets it for come IW. 

Edited December 25, 2017 by MovieMan89

[Porthos]

23 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

I think unlike TLJ, Episode 9 will have to sell itself to 220 million opening weekend then go on autopilot. 

 

 

I am also sure JJ will make a film that people will mostly Unlike Rian Hack Johnson. 

 

I've heard a LOT of words to describe Rian Johnson, but "hack" isn't one of them.

 

PS:  Hack does not mean "Made a film I have issues with", just so you know.

[The Mad Titan]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/pastrecords.htm

 

The average is probably less than 2 years. The stretch between '97 and '06 was unusual though, since there were two movies that held it for a whopping 4 years in that time frame. 

Interesting. The longest reign was Jurassic Park 2. So if TFA's record can hold through June 2020 it will have the longest time on top. In that timeframe I'm thinking IW or Avengers 4 has the best shot to beat it, no? 

[Lordmandeep]

42 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I've heard a LOT of words to describe Rian Johnson, but "hack" isn't one of them.

 

PS:  Hack does not mean "Made a film I have issues with", just so you know.

 

 

to me, he is a hack as he purposely made choices leading to poorer film for rather stupid reasons.

 

 

Seems his fixation was not to get the critique TFA had of being a rehash and not realize that film worked well for other reasons as well. 

Edited December 25, 2017 by Lordmandeep

[edmkh]

48 minutes ago, DMan7 said:

Anyone else think this reception to TLJ might affect Episode 9 OW. Over / Under 200M OW?

Way Over, its the end of the trilogie

[cheesypoofs]

1 hour ago, JonathanLB said:

Exactly, everyone knows Jaguars typically live in garages, then roam on open roads. Duh!

I thought they lived in Jacksonville

[JonathanLB]

Just now, GadnukBreakerOfWorlds said:

Interesting. The longest reign was Jurassic Park 2. So if TFA's record can hold through June 2020 it will have the longest time on top. In that timeframe I'm thinking IW or Avengers 4 has the best shot to beat it, no? 

For sure. I think we can all see either Avengers doing that. I’m not saying they WILL but if they did it would be to the surprise of pretty much nobody. 

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, GadnukBreakerOfWorlds said:

Interesting. The longest reign was Jurassic Park 2. So if TFA's record can hold through June 2020 it will have the longest time on top. In that timeframe I'm thinking IW or Avengers 4 has the best shot to beat it, no? 

It would seem so. The Lost World and Spider-Man are the only two to hold it for a full four years. The Avengers is the only other one to hold it for a full three years. Temple of Doom and TDK came 3 days short of 3 years. 

[TwoMisfits]

32 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

There will be two more years of inflation for IX. If it can't hit 200 when TFA will be pushing 300 adjusted, then that would mean TLJ will have had far worse WOM than any of us even imagined. TLJ's OW should be the floor for IX's, or something went wrong. 

I wouldn't make too many assumptions on ticket inflation...I mean, we still don't know how all these subscription services are gonna pan out...for now, Moviepass values tickets at full price...but Cinemark now values all their plan holders' tickets at $8.99 (which is quite under my Cinemark's prices at all times except 1st show and Tuesday...sometimes 1/2 as much)...subscriptions are just exploding, at least with Moviepass, so it could be a whole new movie world in 6 months, let alone 24...I mean, 10K to 1 mil subscribers+ in 4 months, right (and possibly 2 million by New Year's after all those presents are open with that huge Costco promo)...that could be transformational on a level we don't quite see yet...http://deadline.com/2017/12/moviepass-clicks-past-1-million-subscribers-1202230479/

Edited December 25, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[MovieMan89]

Also interesting that the movies that broke the 100 and 200 barriers on OW had the 2nd and 3rd longest reigns. Means we can probably expect a long reign from whatever breaks 300. 

[a2k]

JW held the record for one of the shortest times I guess.

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

to me, he is a hack as he purposely made choices leading to poorer film for rather stupid reasons.

 

(this is mostly a response in general to the idea of "director made a choice I didn't like and I think their reasons for doing it are dumb" = hack)

Edited December 25, 2017 by Porthos