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Best Picture Predictions - 2018

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Telluride's schedule:

 

Tomorrow (Friday): Destroyer, The Front Runner, The Old Man and the Gun, White Boy Rick

Saturday: Boy Erased, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Peterloo

 

With A Star is Born tomorrow and Suspiria on Saturday at Venice. So much all at once.

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16 hours ago, filmlover said:

Telluride's schedule:

 

Tomorrow (Friday): Destroyer

Saturday: Boy Erased

 

 

Obviously this question will be irrelevant if one of the two underwhelms, but when was the last time an actor landed both Lead and Supporting nominations in the same year? Kidman seems to have a really good chance at getting a nomination from at least one of these movies.

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5 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Obviously this question will be irrelevant if one of the two underwhelms, but when was the last time an actor landed both Lead and Supporting nominations in the same year? Kidman seems to have a really good chance at getting a nomination from at least one of these movies.

Cate Blanchett in 2007, I believe.

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43 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

honestly serious prediction is that it might not win best picture but bradley cooper and lady gaga are both gonna win lead acting oscars. we're probably due another movie that wins both.

Yeah, if Olivia Colman isn't in Lead, I think Gaga is winning (rn). Cooper will win one of his four (five if The Mule happens) categories but idk if it'll be Actor. Waiting to see if Bale and Malek live up to the hype.

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22 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Yeah, if Olivia Colman isn't in Lead, I think Gaga is winning (rn). Cooper will win one of his four (five if The Mule happens) categories but idk if it'll be Actor. Waiting to see if Bale and Malek live up to the hype.

 actor is the most likely. he won't get director and the movie seems maybe a little too schmaltzy for screenplay.

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34 minutes ago, Spagheditary said:

I know it’s getting raves, but I’m still expecting THE FAVOURITE to perform more like Phantom Thread. Seems far too niche for a lot of people, given Lanthimos’ other work. IDK.

That's still would be 2.5x The Lobster. I can see it going up to ~40m though. The reviews make it sound legitimately entertaining so it can pull both the costume period piece crowd and the young hip crowd. 

 

With Buster Scruggs sounding like another Coens movie on the divisive side and The Other Side of the Wind being probably too cinephile-y and out there I guess the road is clear for Netflix to throw everything they've got behind Roma. 

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Based on Telluride reception, the Front Runner probably isn't getting a Best Picture nom, but Jackman is still a very serious Best Actor contender. Ditto that for Redford/Old Man and Gun, and Destroyer/Kidman (she can win it). First Man and Roma getting even stronger notices there. Peterloo average, still waiting on more from White Boy Rick and Boy Erased.

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the favourite seems toned down lanthimos. the performances don't seem to have that deadpan vibe. idk it's clearly fox searchlight's big push this year (since old man and the gun and can you ever forgive me seem like only acting nods at best movies to me) and that's no small thing since they're currently the best at this awards stuff with 4 out of the last 10 best pictures.

 

right now my prediction is it wins picture, cuaron or chazelle win director (or maybe even spike lee if a narrative takes hold in a big way)

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White Boy Rick doesn't seem like it's going anywhere, might get good notices, but nothing strong enough I'd imagine to get in on major noms.

 

Boy Erased might pick up an acting nom or two, doesn't seem like much else.

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6 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Based on Telluride reception, the Front Runner probably isn't getting a Best Picture nom, but Jackman is still a very serious Best Actor contender. Ditto that for Redford/Old Man and Gun, and Destroyer/Kidman (she can win it). First Man and Roma getting even stronger notices there. Peterloo average, still waiting on more from White Boy Rick and Boy Erased.

If The Front Runner continues to get a meh reception and goes nowhere at the box office it's gonna be tough for Jackman unless Best Actor ends up super dead. Of course, Denzel got in for a movie that got meh reviews and nobody saw just last year, but...well, he's Denzel. He would probably be the male Streep racking up noms left and right if most of his film choices weren't strictly commercial enterprises.

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4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

If The Front Runner continues to get a meh reception and goes nowhere at the box office it's gonna be tough for Jackman unless Best Actor ends up super dead. Of course, Denzel got in for a movie that got meh reviews and nobody saw just last year, but...well, he's Denzel. He would probably be the male Streep racking up noms left and right if most of his film choices weren't strictly commercial enterprises.

Best Actor looking thin again this year

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1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

Best Actor looking thin again this year

i'll stick with my five of bale, cooper, gosling, redford, malek (because early buzz is good but he looks shaky as hell to me in the trailers but we'll see) if the herd thins out enough i could even see john david washington getting a nomination even tho that's a lowkey performance for them. maybe ethan hawke in first reformed could come back around if the critics awards go for it.

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