Halba Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 (edited) My predictions for the main ones. Picture: Roma. A star is born, if beale st could talk, the favourite close contenders. Roma has the highest RT rating. its on par with Gravity. Remember Cuaron is in favour with the academy. He's a master and so he should get the award. Director- Bradley Cooper - a star is born. Actor - Bradley cooper - he is a lot higher than the competition, Bale would be second choice for Cheney. Actress- Gaga The Academy usually like to split the top awards up atleast once, there has rarely been a clean sweep of the above ever, usually 3/4 is the maximum they will allow. Edited October 7, 2018 by Halba 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Probably still a long shot, but ASIB could have the best legitimate shot at pulling off the coveted big 5 sweep of anything in a very long time. Really has a lot going for it in all those cats. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 right now i think it could win Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Editing, Song, Sound Mixing (this maybe goes to first man, but if they keep hyping up the live vocals it could snatch this). maybe even sam elliott could win even if it's a little performance but like every scene he's in is an oscar clip and because that category seems so unsure right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 (edited) 6 hours ago, CoolioD1 said: maybe even sam elliott could win even if it's a little performance but like every scene he's in is an oscar clip and because that category seems so unsure right now. If the race really does come down to him and Richard E. Grant I think Elliott will have the advantage. Edited October 8, 2018 by filmlover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 18 hours ago, MovieMan89 said: Probably still a long shot, but ASIB could have the best legitimate shot at pulling off the coveted big 5 sweep of anything in a very long time. Really has a lot going for it in all those cats. Not really, only because that would mean Bradley Cooper will have to win 4 personal oscars in a single ceremony. They didn't even do that in the 80s and 90s were sweeps happened all the time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 20 hours ago, MovieMan89 said: Probably still a long shot, but ASIB could have the best legitimate shot at pulling off the coveted big 5 sweep of anything in a very long time. Really has a lot going for it in all those cats. Modern oscar like to spread out their love, sweeping across the board will lost the big prize of the night, just look at la la land, mad max, and gravity, the closet to big 5 sweeping since silence of the lambs, is the king speech, best picture, director, screenplay and leading actor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 I could see Cooper losing director and screenplay. I think it’s the front runner for Picture, Actor and Actress rn though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 I'm starting to think A Star Is Born is peaking too early. It's being hit with the frontrunner label now, and the "That's it?" backlash is slowly starting. It happened with La La Land, Boyhood, and Gravity recently, two of which had big grosses. Hell, even though last year had no frontrunner, add in Three Billboards for a different kind of controversy. Right now, the other main options for Picture are a black and white foreign film released by Netflix and a Yorgos Lanthimos joint, so it's not hard to see why A Star Is Born is the frontrunner right now. If Vice delivers, I can see that winning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Also something I just realized: Will Ferrell may get an Oscar nomination if he's one of the producers nominated for Vice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric the Minion Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said: Also something I just realized: Will Ferrell may get an Oscar nomination if he's one of the producers nominated for Vice. and for holmes & watson Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said: I'm starting to think A Star Is Born is peaking too early. It's being hit with the frontrunner label now, and the "That's it?" backlash is slowly starting. It happened with La La Land, Boyhood, and Gravity recently, two of which had big grosses. Hell, even though last year had no frontrunner, add in Three Billboards for a different kind of controversy. Right now, the other main options for Picture are a black and white foreign film released by Netflix and a Yorgos Lanthimos joint, so it's not hard to see why A Star Is Born is the frontrunner right now. If Vice delivers, I can see that winning. Then again, Spotlight and 12YAS were also early frontrunners (id say 12YAS was viewed as more likely than Gravity most of the way through 2013) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 4 hours ago, PANDA said: Then again, Spotlight and 12YAS were also early frontrunners (id say 12YAS was viewed as more likely than Gravity most of the way through 2013) Idk, Gravity tied it at PGA. It was definitely close to winning. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepItU25071906 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 (edited) 5 hours ago, PANDA said: Then again, Spotlight and 12YAS were also early frontrunners (id say 12YAS was viewed as more likely than Gravity most of the way through 2013) Gravity won PGA, actress nominations (including SAG), AFI and DGA victory, of course. It has only one problem: own genre. Edited October 9, 2018 by KeepItU25071906 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepItU25071906 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 On 10/7/2018 at 3:06 PM, Halba said: Director- Bradley Cooper - a star is born. I believe in continuation of Mexican domination in this category Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 5 hours ago, KeepItU25071906 said: Gravity won PGA, actress nominations (including SAG), AFI and DGA victory, of course. It has only one problem: own genre. And also, no screenplay nomination.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 10 hours ago, PANDA said: Then again, Spotlight and 12YAS were also early frontrunners (id say 12YAS was viewed as more likely than Gravity most of the way through 2013) I think both of those got upstaged by bigger and flashier stuff shortly after they got frontrunner status early in the season and especially during the final stretch when most of the blacklash happens people were busy taking down Gravity and American Hustle and the Revenant and even Big Short. ASIB's problem might be that none of the stuff that comes after it will be big enough to assume the target. Maybe if First Man truly broke out, but it looks like it 'll be a modest hit at best. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Spotlight was 2015's frontrunner for a while, but it got upstaged by the late releases of The Big Short and The Revenant. Spotlight's status definitely didn't go down because of any backlash; it was just an insanely packed year that came down to preferential voting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 (edited) My opinion, and that won't change, is that they should award BP and Coogler. So what if BP isn't as good as TDK? newsflash: no SH is ever going to be as good as TDK. That's Citizen Kane of SH movies yet AMPAS had no problem awarding dramas that weren't even worthy of polishing Citizen Kane's shoes. BP checks all boxes of a trendy Picture winner such as high MC score and importance/progressiveness, but it's also actually seen by masses and almost universally loved. And since AMPAS loves messages, isn't an all-black cast + Martin Freeman 1.3 billion-grossing blockbuster a big message in itself, way bigger than some indie that few people saw? Moreover, this year has several contenders directed by black directors. AMPAS cannot bail out of awarding one forever, and IMO, the director who will make history should be an African American, sorry Steve McQueen. Oscars are still predominantly American thing and emotional and narrative value would be much stronger if the winner is an American, not a Brit or other foreigner. There are Coogler, Lee and Jenkins. I choose Coogler because his filmography is impeccable, a perfect blend of critical acclaim and populism, and his movie is groundbreaking in that it's #3 highest grossing movie domestically (also see paragraph 2 for more details). I honestly don't think this would be a mistake, quite the contrary, it would be a mistake if the winner was something else. Edited October 9, 2018 by Valonqar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rorschach Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 (edited) In a just world, We The Animals would be nominated for BP, but it isn’t even in the same ballpark unfortunately. Edited October 9, 2018 by Rorschach 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FantasticBeasts Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Seriously Black Panther is nowhere near worth a BP win. It's almost ridiculous to think so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
