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Best Picture Predictions - 2018

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4 hours ago, Valonqar said:

My opinion, and that won't change, is that they should award BP and Coogler.

Do you not think that having an opinion on who should win before the year is over and you have seen all the movie disqualify it automatically ?

 

At least you do not even try to hide your giant bias.

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On 10/4/2018 at 2:12 PM, KeepItU25071906 said:

I think it's gonna be 9 pictures max. Or even 8.

It is gonna be however many they need to make sure Black Panther is on the list (so I suspect 10). 

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6 hours ago, Valonqar said:

My opinion, and that won't change, is that they should award BP and Coogler. So what if BP isn't as good as TDK? newsflash: no SH is ever going to be as good as TDK. That's Citizen Kane of SH movies yet AMPAS had no problem awarding dramas that weren't even worthy of polishing Citizen Kane's shoes. 

 

BP checks all boxes of a trendy Picture winner such as high MC score and importance/progressiveness, but it's also actually seen by masses and almost universally loved. And since AMPAS loves messages, isn't an all-black cast + Martin Freeman 1.3 billion-grossing blockbuster a big message in itself, way bigger than some indie that few people saw? 

 

Moreover, this year has several contenders directed by black directors. AMPAS cannot bail out of awarding one forever, and IMO, the director who will make history should be an African American, sorry Steve McQueen. Oscars are still predominantly American thing and emotional and narrative value would be much stronger if the winner is an American, not a Brit or other foreigner. There are Coogler, Lee and Jenkins. I choose Coogler because his filmography is impeccable, a perfect blend of critical acclaim and populism, and his movie is groundbreaking in that it's #3 highest grossing movie domestically (also see paragraph 2 for more details).  

 

I honestly don't think this would be a mistake, quite the contrary, it would be a mistake if the winner was something else. 

Cause fuck them indie movies, amirite?

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22 minutes ago, Slambros said:

BREAKING NEWS

 

https://www.indiewire.com/2018/10/golden-globes-bohemian-rhapsody-a-star-is-born-musicals-1202010897/

 

Both A Star Is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody will not be competing in the Musical/Comedy category of the Golden Globes! They will instead be competing in the Drama category!

 

:circles:

So A Star is Born will just sweep the Drama categories. The Favourite will likely take Comedy now.

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I know Warner's doing it primarily because they must feel good about the film's ability to compete, but it's good to hear that A Star Is Born isn't category frauding its way into Musical/Comedy. There's plenty of music in it, but no one's mistaking it for a traditional musical nor a comedy - especially not the latter.

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2 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I am always wonder, as so many oscar movie premiered or open to public at the film festival, did all those show contributed to the box office gross? Or simply, is the public pay for the showing at film festival?  

This. Festival grosses aren't counted towards box office.

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October Predictions

 

Best Picture

1. Roma

2. A Star is Born

3. The Favourite

 

4. Vice

5. BlacKkKlansman

6. Green Book

7. If Beale Street Could Talk

8. Black Panther

 

9. Crazy Rich Asians

10. The Hate U Give

Alts: First Man, Widows, Bohemian Rhapsody, Mary Poppins Returns, Mary Queen of Scots, Boy Erased

 

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

4. Adam McKay, Vice

5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Alts: Barry Jenkins, Damien Chazelle, Peter Farrelly, Ryan Coogler, Steve McQueen

 

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born

2. Olivia Coleman, The Favourite

3. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

4. Glenn Cose, The Wife

5. Amandla Sternberg, The Hate U Give

Alts: Viola Davis, Emma Stone (if Lead), Emily Blunt, Kiki Layne, Saoirse Ronan, Melissa McCarthy

 

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

2. Christian Bale, Vice

3. Viggo Mortenson, Green Book

4. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

5. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Alts: Ryan Gosling, Robert Redford

 

Best Supporting Actress

1. Amy Adams, Vice

2. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

3. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

4. Marina de Tavira, Roma

5. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians

Alts: Emma Stone, Claire Foy, Regina Hall, Meryl Streep, Margot Robbie

 

Best Supporting Actor

1. Lin Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns

2. Sam Elliott, A Star is Born

3. Sam Rockwell, Vice

4. Mahershala Ali, Green Book

5. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows

Alts: Adam Driver, Michael B Jordan, Richard E Grant

 

Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman

2. If Beale Street Could Talk

3. A Star is Born

4. The Hate U Give

5. Crazy Rich Asians

Alts: First Man, Black Panther, Widows, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

 

Original Screenplay

1. Roma

2. The Favourite

3. Vice

4. Green Book

5. Eighth Grade

Alts: A Quiet Place, First Reformed, Sorry to Bother You

 

Cinematography

1. Roma

2. First Man

3. A Star is Born

4. The Favourite

5. If Beale Street Could Talk

Alts: Cold War, Black Panther

 

Editing

1. A Star is Born

2. Roma

3. The Favourite

4. Vice

5. First Man

Alts: BlacKkKlansman, The Hate U Give, Black Panther

 

Costume Design

1. The Favourite

2. Black Panther

3. Mary Poppins Returns

4. Crazy Rich Asians

5. Mary, Queen of Scots

Alts: A Star is Born, Fantastic Beasts 2, First Man, BlacKkKlansman, the Nutcracker

 

Production Design

1. The Favourite

2. Black Panther

3. Mary Poppins Returns

4. Roma

5. Crazy Rich Asians

Alts: First Man, Fantastic Beasts 2, A Star is Born, The Nutcracker,

 

Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Vice

2. The Favourite

3. Black Panther

Alts: The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, Bohemian Rhapsody, Mary Queen of Scots

 

Original Score

1. If Beale Street Could Talk

2. First Man

3. BlacKkKlansman

4. Black Panther

5. Mary Poppins Returns

Alts: Widows, Vice, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Avengers: Infinity War

 

Original Song

1. The Shallows, A Star is Born

2. I'll Never Love Again, A Star is Born

3. Mary Poppins Returns

4. "All the Stars" Black Panther

5. Mary Poppins Returns

Alts: Idk some random ones, and other ASIB and Poppins songs

 

Sound Editing

1. A Quiet Place

2. Avengers: Infinity War

3. Black Panther

4. A Star is Born

5. Mission: Impossible - Fallout

Alts: First Man, Roma, Bohemian Rhapsody, Widows

 

Sound Mixing

1. A Star is Born

2. A Quiet Place

3. Black Panther

4. Roma

5. Avengers: Infinity War

Alts: First Man, Bohemian Rhapsody, Widows

 

Visual Effects

1. Avengers: Infinity War

2. Black Panther

3. First Man

4. Ready Player One

5. Annihilation

Alts: Solo, Fantastic Beasts 2, Mary Poppins Returns

 

Foreign Film

1. Roma

2. Cold War

3. I Am Not a Witch

4. Shoplifters

5. Capernaum

 

Animated Film

1. Isle of Dogs

2. Incredibles 2

3. Mirai

4. Ralph Breaks the Internet

5. Mary and the Witch's Flower

 

A Star is Born - 5 Wins, 12 Nominations

Roma - 5 Wins, 10 Nominations

Vice - 2 Wins, 8 Nominations

The Favourite - 2 Wins, 10 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman - 1 Win, 5 Nominations

Mary Poppins Returns - 1 Win, 5 Nominations

A Quiet Place - 1 Win, 1 Nomination

Avengers: Infinity War - 1 Win, 3 Nominations

Isle of Dogs - 1 Win, 1 Nomination

Black Panther - 9 Nominations

Crazy Rich Asians - 5 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk - 5 Nominations

Green Book - 4 Nominations

First Man - 4 Nominations

The Hate U Give - 3 Nominations

Cold War - 1 Nomination

Mission: Impossible - Fallout - 1 Nomination

Mary, Queen of Scots - 1 Nomination

Annihilation - 1 Nomination

Ready Player One - 1 Nomination

Bohemian Rhapsody - 1 Nomination

The Wife - 1 Nomination

Eighth Grade - 1 Nomination

Ralph Breaks the Internet - 1 Nomination

Widows - 1 Nomination

Mary and the Witch's Flower - 1 Nomination

I am Not a Witch - 1 Nomination

Shoplifters - 1 Nomination

Incredibles 2 - 1 Nomination

Mirai - 1 Nomination

Capernaum - 1 Nomination

 

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LESS PRESSING, BUT SIGNIFICANT NEWS

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/amp/race/academy-announcing-shortlists-nine-oscar-categories-december-1151728

 

The Academy has announced that the shortlists for nine categories will be announced all at once on December 17th. Those categories are:

 

Best Foreign Feature

Best Documentary Feature

Best Documentary Short

Best Live-Action Short

Best Animated Short

Best Animated Feature

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

 

and, for the first time since 1979...

 

Best Original Score

Best Original Song

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8 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/first-man-gets-enthusiastic-reception-at-academy-screening-1152203?

 

Oscars: 'First Man' Greeted By Warm Reception At Packed Academy Screening

Not surprised. If something as middlebrow as Darkest Hour made the Best Picture cut last year, I wouldn't be worried about this.

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9 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/first-man-gets-enthusiastic-reception-at-academy-screening-1152203?

 

Oscars: 'First Man' Greeted By Warm Reception At Packed Academy Screening

kris tapley always likes to point out that the best reaction he ever saw at an academy screening was Casino Royale. these reports are as useful as T E S T  S C R E E N I N G posts

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1 minute ago, CoolioD1 said:

kris tapley always likes to point out that the best reaction he ever saw at an academy screening was Casino Royale. these reports are as useful as T E S T  S C R E E N I N G posts

tbf who wouldn't go nuts after the final scene of casino royale

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