Best Picture Predictions - 2018

[CoolioD1]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I actually saw The Wife (mostly because my mom wanted to see it and I’m a good son so I took her). Movie is only good but not great (it only touches the surface of digging into the fascinating topics it’s trying to address) but it sure is one hell of an acting showcase for Close and Jonathan Pryce (who is every bit her equal but she gets the juicier part so it’s understandable why she’s gotten all the buzz for the film). It’s the kind of movie where the acting leaves a stronger impression than the rest of the film.

ok glenn.

[filmlover]

Speaking of which just realized The Wife actually made more than Can You Ever Forgive Me? and Boy Erased among movies that were more conveniently timed to award season. Might even make more than anything else on the specialty/mainstream Oscar play line yet too be released to aside from Beale Street and Vice. Tough year for indies.

Edited December 10, 2018 by filmlover

[WrathOfHan]

CYEFM's gross still surprises (and disappoints) me. I thought it would've made 10M+ like Old Man and the Gun did, but Searchlight stopped expanding before it could go wide. Ah well; this helps its chances of a Criterion release at least  

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

CYEFM's gross still surprises (and disappoints) me. I thought it would've made 10M+ like Old Man and the Gun did, but Searchlight stopped expanding before it could go wide. Ah well; this helps its chances of a Criterion release at least  

I guess the subject matter came across as too dry for most people. Too bad since the movie takes a fun approach to it.

[Cmasterclay]

God I really want to see Burning so bad. Right up my alley. Unfortunately it just didn't come out around me at all and by this point that ship has sailed. Anyone have any suggestion on how to watch it? Doesn't have to be, hmmmm, let's say, legal, but also probably should not give my work laptop a horrible virus. Help me be a completist so I can submit an accurate Boffy ballot!

[Webslinger]

Glenn Close is great in The Wife. It will be a career honors Oscar if she wins (duh, I'm not gonna sit here and pretend like it's not), but the performance itself is aces and will probably make my personal ballot in what I feel has been a crazy-loaded year for that category. A Close win would be miles better than the "Sorry we made you wait 30 years between wins" Oscar Meryl Streep got for a competent performance in the otherwise awful Iron Lady.

[Cmasterclay]

https://www.etonline.com/critics-choice-awards-2019-the-complete-list-of-nominations-115409

 

It's the "Let's nominate everyone who has a serious chance of being nominated and is in predictions" awards!! This tells us nothing.

[Ethan Hunt]

16 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

if leave no trace had a better studio pick it up it'd be a shoo-in for a best picture nod. especially since i can guarantee you there's gonna be grousing next month about how all the best pic nominees are directed by men. already happened for the Globes. ah well, at best i can hope it sneaks into screenplay or smthing.

The fact that Thomasin is not a frontrunner for Actress is some serious nonsense. still my favorite performance of the year

[titanic2187]

5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

https://www.etonline.com/critics-choice-awards-2019-the-complete-list-of-nominations-115409

 

It's the "Let's nominate everyone who has a serious chance of being nominated and is in predictions" awards!! This tells us nothing.

With this, I assume the number of "SNUB" will increase and number of "SURPRISE" will reduce to zero 

[SLAM!]

9 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

https://www.etonline.com/critics-choice-awards-2019-the-complete-list-of-nominations-115409

 

It's the "Let's nominate everyone who has a serious chance of being nominated and is in predictions" awards!! This tells us nothing.

 

well, it's at least telling that Lucas Hedges was excluded from a list of seven in the acting category, and that Willem Dafoe was included.

[The Panda]

5 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

https://www.etonline.com/critics-choice-awards-2019-the-complete-list-of-nominations-115409

 

It's the "Let's nominate everyone who has a serious chance of being nominated and is in predictions" awards!! This tells us nothing.

Trying to evaluate if I want to included stuff like this into my prediction model.

 

I may end up just going bare bones, ignore critics circles completely, as I don’t trust them as predictors.  The negative is I lose data, and stuff like a Critics Choice and Satellite (while being “Let’s predict the Oscars!” kind of awards, they do give decent ideas for what to put in for the techs).

 

Ill probably throw it in, because it can’t hurt.  I’m just going to lower its weight to be the equivalent of any other critic circle.

[SLAM!]

San Diego's winners

 

Best Picture: LEAVE NO TRACE (Runner Up: GREEN BOOK)
Best Director: Debra Granik, LEAVE NO TRACE (Runner Up: Peter Farrelly, GREEN BOOK)
Best Actor: Ethan Hawke, FIRST REFORMED (Runner Up: Viggo Mortensen, GREEN BOOK)
Best Actress: Glenn Close, THE WIFE (Runner Up: Melissa McCarthy, CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?)
Best Supporting Actor: TIE – Richard E. Grant, CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? & Timothée Chalamet, BEAUTIFUL BOY
Best Supporting Actress: Nicole Kidman, BOY ERASED (Running Up: Nina Arianda, STAN & OLLIE)
Best Comedic Performance: Hugh Grant, PADDINGTON 2 (Runner Up: Jesse Plemons, GAME NIGHT)
Best Original Screenplay: Bo Burnham, EIGHTH GRADE (Runner Up: Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly, GREEN BOOK)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Armando Iannucci, David Schneider, Ian Martin, Peter Fellows, Fabien Nury, THE DEATH OF STALIN (Runner Up: Joel Edgerton, BOY ERASED)
Best Documentary: THREE IDENTICAL STRANGERS (Runner Up: FREE SOLO)
Best Animated Film: ISLE OF DOGS (Runner Up: SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE)
Best Foreign Language Film: SHOPLIFTERS (Runner Up: CAPERNAUM)
Breakthrough Artist: Thomasin McKenzie, LEAVE NO TRACE (Runner Up: Charlie Plummer, LEAN ON PETE)
Best Ensemble: GAME NIGHT (Runner Up: THE FAVOURITE)

 

Seattle's Nominees

 

BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR:

Black Panther (Walt Disney Pictures)
Blindspotting (Summit Entertainment/Lionsgate)
The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)
First Reformed (A24)
If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)
Mission: Impossible – Fallout (Paramount)
Paddington 2 (Warner Bros.)
Roma (Netflix)
A Star is Born (Warner Bros.)
Suspiria (Amazon Studios)

 

BEST DIRECTOR:

Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuarón – Roma
Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk
Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite
Paul Schrader – First Reformed

 

BEST ACTOR in a LEADING ROLE:

Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born
Daveed Diggs – Blindspotting
Ethan Hawke – First Reformed
Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
Joaquin Phoenix – You Were Never Really Here

 

BEST ACTRESS in a LEADING ROLE:

Yalitza Aparicio – Roma
Toni Collette – Hereditary
Olivia Colman – The Favourite
Regina Hall – Support the Girls
Lady Gaga – A Star is Born

 

BEST ACTOR in a SUPPORTING ROLE:

Mahershala Ali – Green Book
Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Russell Hornsby – The Hate U Give
Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther
Steven Yeun – Burning

 

BEST ACTRESS in a SUPPORTING ROLE:

Elizabeth Debicki – Widows
Claire Foy – First Man
Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone – The Favourite
Rachel Weisz – The Favourite

 

BEST ENSEMBLE CAST:

Black Panther
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
Vice
Widows

 

BEST SCREENPLAY:

Blindspotting – Rafael Casal & Daveed Diggs
The Favourite – Deborah Davis & Tony McNamara
First Reformed – Paul Schrader
If Beale Street Could Talk – Barry Jenkins
Roma – Alfonso Cuarón

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

Incredibles 2 – Brad Bird, director
Isle of Dogs – Wes Anderson, director
Mirai – Mamoru Hosoda, director
Ralph Breaks the Internet – Rich Moore & Phil Johnston, directors
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse – Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, directors

 

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:

Burning – Lee Chang-dong, director
Cold War – Paweł Pawlikowski, director
Revenge – Coralie Fargeat, director
Roma – Alfonso Cuarón, director
Shoplifters – Hirokazu Kore-eda, director

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

Free Solo – Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin, directors
Minding the Gap – Bing Liu, director
Shirkers – Sandi Tan, director
Three Identical Strangers – Tim Wardle, director
Won’t You Be My Neighbor? – Morgan Neville, director

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

The Favourite – Robbie Ryan
If Beale Street Could Talk – James Laxton
Mission: Impossible – Fallout – Rob Hardy
The Rider – Joshua James Richards
Roma – Alfonso Cuarón

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

Black Panther – Ruth E. Carter
Colette – Andrea Flesch
The Favourite – Sandy Powell
Mary Poppins Returns – Sandy Powell
Suspiria – Giulia Piersanti

 

BEST FILM EDITING:

BlacKkKlansman – Barry Alexander Brown

The Favourite – Yorgos Mavropsaridis

First Man – Tom Cross

Mission: Impossible – Fallout – Eddie Hamilton

Roma – Alfonso Cuarón, Alex Gough

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

 

First Man – Justin Hurwitz

If Beale Street Could Talk – Nicholas Britell

Mandy – Jóhann Jóhannsson

Mission: Impossible – Fallout – Lorne Balfe

You Were Never Really Here – Jonny Greenwood

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

 

Black Panther – Hannah Beachler (Production Designer); Jay Hart (Set Decorator)

The Favourite – Fiona Crombie (Production Designer); Alice Felton (Set Decorator)

First Man – Nathan Crowley (Production Designer); Kathy Lucas (Set Decorator)
Mary Poppins Returns – John Myhre (Production Designer); Gordon Sim (Set Decorator)

Roma – Eugenio Caballero (Production Designer); Bárbara Enríquez (Set Decorator)

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

 

Annihilation – Andrew Whitehurst, Sara Bennett, Richard Clarke, Simon Hughes

Avengers: Infinity War – Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl, Dan Sudick

Black Panther – Geoffrey Baumann, Jesse James Chisholm, Craig Hammack, Dan Sudick

First Man – Paul Lambert, J.D. Schwalm, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles

Mission: Impossible – Fallout – Jody Johnson

 

BEST YOUTH PERFORMANCE (18 years of age or younger upon start of filming):

 

Elsie Fisher –Eighth Grade

Kairi Jyo –Shoplifters

Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie – Leave No Trace

Milly Shapiro – Hereditary

Millicent Simmonds – A Quiet Place

 

VILLAIN OF THE YEAR:

 

Erik Killmonger – Black Panther – portrayed by Michael B. Jordan

Jatemme Manning – Widows – portrayed by Daniel Kaluuya

Phoenix Buchanan – Paddington 2 – portrayed by Hugh Grant

STEM – Upgrade – portrayed by Simon Maiden

Thanos – Avengers: Infinity War – portrayed by Josh Brolin

[aabattery]

Leave No Trace and Game Night getting some good nods there. Very nice.

[stripe]

The precursors already pictured a clear scenario with 9 strong movies. Marked the gross these movies could have before noms are announced

 

Locked nominees

A Star is Born (200M)

Roma (?)

Green Book (35M)

Favourite (30M)

 

Extremely likely nominees

Black Panther (700M)

Blakkkansman (48M)

Vice (40M)

 

Solid chances

Mary Poppins Returns (250M - conservative)

If Beale Street Could Talk (20M)

 

Possible spoilers

First Man

Eighth Grade

First Reformed

 

If the first 9 movies are nommed, as many are expecting, the cumulative gross will be outstanding.

 

[titanic2187]

leave no trace suddenly left some trace......

[CoolioD1]

kris tapley is predicting it for supporting actress/screenplay.

 

https://variety.com/2018/film/awards/2019-oscars-predictions-academy-awards-1203065044/

 

🙏🙏

[SLAM!]

1 hour ago, CoolioD1 said:

kris tapley is predicting it for supporting actress/screenplay.

 

https://variety.com/2018/film/awards/2019-oscars-predictions-academy-awards-1203065044/

 

🙏🙏

 

Great minds think alike; that combination of noms has been in my mind for a few days now. Hopefully those nominations happen because that'd allow a deserving film to gain a bigger audience. I'm sure those categories are the best chance the film has at getting recognition.

[Ethan Hunt]

I mean Thomasin is obviously the lead but I'd take it.

[SLAM!]

African American Film Critic Award Winners & Top Ten (copied and pasted from Rotten Tomatoes)

 

Best Film: Black Panther (2018)  97%

 

Best Director: Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (2018)  97%

 

Best Screenplay:  Charlie Wachtel and David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott and Spike Lee –BlacKkKlansman (2018)  95%

 

Best Actor: John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (2018)  95%

 

Best Actress: Regina Hall, Support the Girls (2018)  93%

 

Best Supporting Actor: Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (2018)  96%

 

Best Supporting Actress: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (2018)  92%

 

Best Breakout Performance: Amandla Stenberg, The Hate U Give (2018)  96%

 

Best Animated Film: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (2018)  99%

 

Best Independent Film: If Beale Street Could Talk (2018)  92%

 

Best Foreign Film: Roma (2018)  99%

 

Best Documentary: Quincy (2018)  79%

 

Best Song: “All The Stars”, Black Panther (2018)  97%

 

Best TV Drama: Queen Sugar  97%

 

Best TV Comedy: Insecure  97%

 

Best New Media: “Red Table Talk”

 

AAFCA’s Full Top Ten List:

1. Black Panther (2018)  97% (Walt Disney Studios)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (2018)  92% (Annapurna Pictures)
3. The Hate U Give (2018)  96% (20th Century Fox)
4. A Star Is Born (2018)  90% (Warner Bros. Studios)
5. Quincy (2018)  79% (Netflix)
6. Roma (2018)  99% (Netflix)
7. Blindspotting (2018)  93% (Lionsgate)
8. The Favourite (2018)  94% (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
9. Sorry to Bother You (2018)  92% (Annapurna Pictures)
10. Widows (2018)  91% (20th Century Fox)

Edited December 11, 2018 by Slambros

[Cmasterclay]

Man, I'd love to see a Russell Hornsby run at a nomination. Dude was excellent in that movie, probably my overall favorite male supporting performance of the year as of yet. Should get in that weak category. I didn't post much about The Hate U Give when it came out (election SZN) but I'm surprised that it didn't get more love this season. It's a little young adult-y at times which explains alot - why it's near the bottom end of my top ten instead of the top five. But man, I definitely think Stenberg and Hornsby should get some love.