Weekend Thread - Insidious 29.6M, Jumanji 37.2M, TLJ 23.7M, TGS 13.8M, PP3 10.3

[XO21]

3 hours ago, a2knet said:

 

 

Night at the Museum had a 21.85 MLK 4-day and added 60.3 more to it's run. If that above projection holds and Jumanji follows NATM then will do 283.4 + 3*30 = 373+.

It could beat surprises like Zootopia, IO, F7 (#1 film starring DJ), DP1, TJB, SLOP.

 

edit: I for one would love it if it makes a go at GOTG2, #4 dom 2017.

What the actual 

 

wow

[Mojoguy]

That awkward moment when Jumanji outgrosses the likes of Batman vs Superman and Spiderman Homecoming

Well deserved for Jumanji!

[Mojoguy]

Looking at this January, there isn't real any family film competition besides Paddington 2, which I'm not expecting to make any different from the original Paddington.

With TLJ fading, Jumanji can really clean up and make a ton this month.

The really scary thing is that TLJ was the ONLY thing holding Jumanji back.

Edited January 6, 2018 by Mojoguy

[TheForceuser707]

22 minutes ago, junkshop36 said:

 

Some people just like to see the world burn. 

 

It’s dissapointing because of how big the OW was. Even with solid WOM it should have done 700m. The combination of mixed WOM and Jumanji’s breakout have kept it from doing as well as it could have. 

 

 

I loved the movie, by the way. 

It was a bad movie. Some consider it an insult. I guess there's always a price to pay for that.

[Brainbug]

These numbers are good for nearly everything, but exceptional for Jumanji and Showman.

 

Though the hate for TLJ here is really annoying me at this point. I wont look into the Weekend Threads anymore. Its getting now near YouTube-Comments level bad from some users here.

Edited January 6, 2018 by Brainbug

[TheForceuser707]

4 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Looking at this January, there isn't real any family film competition besides Paddington 2, which I'm not expecting to make any different from the original Paddington.

With TLJ fading, Jumanji can really clean up and make a ton this month.

The really scary thing is that TLJ was the ONLY thing holding Jumanji back.

Mmmn Kind of.

 

Jumanji wasn't being held back. It was simply there as an alternative.

 

Proof can be found in the theater averages and screen numbers. Jumanji (on around 450 less locations) really shouldn't be a factor but it is because no one is going back to see The Last Jedi. Disney basically has this huge spectacle sitting in empty theaters for the next week and a bit, after which there may be another record drop off for this movie.

[a2k]

Jumanji Fri is still 10.8 on Deadline but the weekend projection has changed from 35.8 to 36.4

36+ is understandable even with a big Sunday drop:

 

10.8 (+60%) + 16.2 (+50%) + 9.1 (-44%) = 36.1

 

----

 

@Brainbug at least i have been on TLJ's case somewhat negatively. gonna stop it now.

Edited January 6, 2018 by a2knet

[Mojoguy]

Mmmn Kind of.

Jumanji wasn't being held back. It was simply there as an alternative.

Proof can be found in the theater averages and screen numbers. Jumanji (on around 450 less locations) really shouldn't be a factor but it is because no one is going back to see The Last Jedi. Disney basically has this huge spectacle sitting in empty theaters for the next week and a bit, after which there may be another record drop off for this movie.

TLJ is holding Jumanji back simply because TLJ has all the biggest largest auditoriums per Disney's contract with theaters that wanted to show TLJ, there are also the premium screens that have higher ticket prices. That contract lasts for the first 4 weeks.

With TLJ getting the biggest auditoriums, theaters are forced to put Jumanji on auditoriums with less seating.

[TheForceuser707]

4 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

 

TLJ is holding Jumanji back simply because TLJ has all the biggest largest auditoriums per Disney's contract with theaters that wanted to show TLJ, there are also the premium screens that have higher ticket prices. That contract lasts for the first 4 weeks.

With TLJ getting the biggest auditoriums, theaters are forced to put Jumanji on auditoriums with less seating.

That's why I said kind of... the point being that parity would mean TLJ giving way before 2018.

 

Or in other words, without TLJ's relatively monumental failure Jumanji wouldn't be doing so well.

Edited January 6, 2018 by TheForceuser707

[the beast]

The Post with that $44.4k PTA in 36 theaters! This is definitely hitting $100m+

[Mojoguy]

The big problem is that if people aren't going to to see TLJ, all the biggest auditoriums in the world won't help if they are nearly empty. This just ends up being lost money for the theaters if they could have given the biggest auditoriums to Jumanji instead, a movie which could have been making more money.

I still think the 4 week Disney contract is ridiculous.

[dxmatrixdt]

2 hours ago, Matrix4You said:

Jumanji - 10.8 + 16  + 10.2

Insidious - 12.5 + 9.5  5.0

Star Wars - 6.8 + 10 + 6.7

Showman - 4.1 + 5.7  3.2

Pitch P3 - 3.3  + 4.4 + 2.3

Ferdinand - 2.3 + 3.4 + 2.3

Darkest - 1.8 + 2.6 + 1.6

Molly's Game - 2.2  + 2.3 + 1.5

Coco - 1.6 + 2.4 + 1.8

All the Money - 1.0 + 1.5 + 0.9 

Shape of Water - 0.789 + 1.111 + 0.75

The Post - 0.500 + 0.65 + 0.45

Phantom Thread - 64k + 90K + 56k

 

Jumanji - 37.0 - $9,734 avg - 245.37 total

Insidious - 27.0 - $8,665 avg - 27.00 total

Star Wars - 23.5 - $5,553 avg - 572.46 total

Showman - 13.0 - $3,890 avg - 76.10 total

Pitch Perfect - 10.0 - $2,892 avg - 85.76  total

Ferdinand - 8.0 - $2,535 avg - 70.77 total

Darkest Hour - 6.0 - $3,462 avg - 28.04 total

Molly's Game - 6.0 - $3,731 avg - 13.22 total

Coco - 5.80 - $3,062 avg - 192.34 total

All the Money - 3.40 - $1,602 avg - 19.98 total

Shape of Water - 2.65 - $3,296 avg - 21.20 total

The Post - 1.60 - $44,444 avg - 3.75 total

Phantom Thread - 0.210 - $35,000 avg - 0.920 total

4-day MLK next weekend           

Jumanji - 33.30 - 288.67 total

Paddington - 27.50 - 27.50 total

The Post - 21.00 - 21.00

Commuter 18.00 - 18.00

Star Wars - 16.00 - 593.50 total

Showman - 12.00 - 93.10 total

Proud Mary - 10.00 - 10.00

Darkest Hour - 5.00 - 35.04

Ferdinand - 4.50 - 76.47

Coco - 4.50 - 197.74

Pitch Perfect - 6.00 - 95.00 total

Insidious - 14.00 - 47.75 total

Molly's Game - 4.50 - 19.72 total

All the Money - 1.50 - 22.72 total

Shape of Water - 2.21 - 24.40 total

 

Phantom Thread?

 

Edited January 6, 2018 by Matrix4You

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, the beast said:

The Post with that $44.4k PTA in 36 theaters! This is definitely hitting $100m+

Looks like it! Spotlight (journalism theme) did 45 odd (boosted by awards) and the previous Spielberg-Hanks collaboration BoS did 72. I think Post will beat their combined cume, 117 odd, Streep helping a lot in that. But wonder if it can pull off an epic Hidden Figures like run, which would be really fun to follow.

[Mojoguy]

Small independent theaters refused to show TLJ because their businesses would have been crippled by Disney's 4 week contract and Disney getting 65% of ticket sale revenue (the largest cut a studio has ever asked from theaters).

Those theaters are REALLY happy about Jumanji doing great right now.

[Krissykins]

Fantastic for Jumanji and Insidious 4. 

 

If those numbers hold, that opening for Insidious is bigger than the previous entry. Impressive. 

 

Looks like Greatest Showman and Pitch Perfect will pass $100m after all. TGS will still be a money loser. 

[a2k]

6 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Fantastic for Jumanji and Insidious 4. 

 

If those numbers hold, that opening for Insidious is bigger than the previous entry. Impressive. 

 

Looks like Greatest Showman and Pitch Perfect will pass $100m after all. TGS will still be a money loser. 

How so? It's looking at 115 dom or more, if this weekend is close to 14, taking the cume to 77.

 

Next 4-day should add 12. In between Mon-Thu should add ~8.

So 77 + 8 + 12 = 97 by MLK Monday, 18 away from 115 dom.

 

Should add an equal amount OS if not more for 230 ww. So will do at least 2.7-2.8x the prod budget (84) globally, while 3x (250 ww) is realistic imo.

Edited January 6, 2018 by a2knet

[holcs]

I haven't seen the last few Insidious movies, nor do I want to, but what Wan created in his little horror universe is pretty incredible.  High hopes for his step into the comic universe with Aquaman.  

[MCKillswitch123]

If these Deadline numbers hold, awesome weekend.

 

HOLY SHIT JUMANJI!!!! What a machine this beast is turning out. If it actually beats Spider-Man: Homecoming and SM3 to be Sony's highest grossing film DOM in 13 years..... hot fuck. My confidence in Rampage grows bigger and bigger everyday

 

Insidious is gonna pull around 10M more than I thought it would. A January dumpjob with a rushed YouTube marketing campaign, and a franchise with its toes stepping on the one too many entries territory? Yeah, this is dead. Leave it to the Universal/Blumhouse golden touch (they're only surpassed by New Line imo) to make bank off of it regardless. That's actually a bigger OW than the 3rd one, holy shit. And James Wan really is the God of horror franchises. Jigsaw having great legs, Insidious 4 pulling big numbers out of its ass, and of course the success of The Conjuring universe proves that.

 

The Last Jedi falls to #3, but to its credit, its drop is not a total embarassment.... I guess.

 

HOLY MOTHERFUCKING SHIT THE GREATEST SHOWMAN!!!!!! Ok, tbh, is it all that awesome that a movie about a con artist AND circus promoter is doing great? Morally speaking, that's debatable. However, these numbers sure reflect joy from the audiences. 120+ is likely, which is insane after an 8.6 million OW. Ladies and gentlemen, that 100M record is going down

 

Speaking of which, PP3 also had a great hold, nice to see. Ferdinand looking to beat Alvin 3 or 4 or whatever after a Godawful OW (though it's not out of the dog house unless OS saves it), Coco gon' hit Ratatouille numbers, and The Post having a strong increase as well. All The Money and Shape both doing solid as well.

 

Molly's Game is the only downer, and it's a shame that a Chastain/Elba/Sorkin joint wouldn't do great, but oh well.

[Krissykins]

36 minutes ago, a2knet said:

How so? It's looking at 115 dom or more, if this weekend is close to 14, taking the cume to 77.

 

Next 4-day should add 12. In between Mon-Thu should add ~8.

So 77 + 8 + 12 = 97 by MLK Monday, 18 away from 115 dom.

 

Should add an equal amount OS if not more for 230 ww. So will do at least 2.7-2.8x the prod budget (84) globally, while 3x (250 ww) is realistic imo.

Um, because I'm pretty sure Deadline said the advertising spend alone was $150m.

[baumer]

2 hours ago, TheForceuser707 said:

It's currently 57th all time. Raw DOM numbers don't mean much without adjustment for ticket price inflation.

 

Do you ever post anything that is based on fact or is it all just to be a pest?