BardCrank Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Valonqar said: So who gets snubbed on the Oscar morning, Gerwig or Peele? You know someone will be. GDT wins . Nolan , McDonagh are in , that leaves us with Peele , Gerwig and Guadagnino fighting for 2 places and Guadagnino has hit almost no precursor so I think both are safe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, BardCrank said: GDT wins . Nolan , McDonagh are in , that leaves us with Peele , Gerwig and Guadagnino fighting for 2 places and Guadagnino has hit almost no precursor so I think both are safe Agreed. Great analysis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said: Good thread I'll see how my precursor data lines up but this is my biggest grievance against predicting Three Billboards. Pre-Preferential Ballot, as long as your movie has the largest passionate base you won (which means there was more room for anyone who wasn't apart of that base to dislike the movie), maybe it's one of the reasons we kept getting 'weak' winners like Shakespeare in Love and such. Post-Preferential Ballot, movies need a large enough base to not get eliminated from the first few rounds of voting, and they need to be well-liked by the people that didn't place it at number 1 (as in, they'll place it numbers 2-3). In 2016: La La Land had a lot of detractors, despite a lot of people loving it In 2015: The Revenant had a lot of detractors, despite a lot of people loving it In 2014: Birdman didn't have many detractors and it had a passionate base, so it won In 2013: Gravity had a lot of detractors, despite a lot of people loving it In 2012: Argo was an easy consensus choice (plus Affleck controversy) In 2011: Weak year, The Artist had the most consensus and a passionate base In 2010: First year of the Preferential Ballot, but The King's Speech seemed to have a lot of universal guild passion Three Billboards has a lot of detractors and Get Out/Lady Bird do not. However, Get Out and Lady Bird both missed the BAFTAs which is pretty major. If they miss the DGA then I don't think they have enough support to still be in contention. Edited January 9, 2018 by New Year New Panda Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, New Year New Panda said: I'll see how my precursor data lines up but this is my biggest grievance against predicting Three Billboards. Pre-Preferential Ballot, as long as your movie has the largest passionate base you won (which means there was more room for anyone who wasn't apart of that base to dislike the movie), maybe it's one of the reasons we kept getting 'weak' winners like Shakespeare in Love and such. Post-Preferential Ballot, movies need a large enough base to not get eliminated from the first few rounds of voting, and they need to be well-liked by the people that didn't place it at number 1 (as in, they'll place it numbers 2-3). In 2016: La La Land had a lot of detractors, despite a lot of people loving it In 2015: The Revenant had a lot of detractors, despite a lot of people loving it In 2014: Birdman didn't have many detractors and it had a passionate base, so it won In 2013: Gravity had a lot of detractors, despite a lot of people loving it In 2012: Argo was an easy consensus choice (plus Affleck controversy) In 2011: Weak year, The Artist had the most consensus and a passionate base In 2010: First year of the Preferential Ballot, but The King's Speech seemed to have a lot of universal guild passion Birdman actually did have a lot of detractors at the time. That said, it was much more of a unique directorial achievement (something that Three Billboards is definitely not). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 The other thing that I think people are forgetting is that the Academy composition has changed in ways BAFTA and the Golden Globes have not. It's a much larger body that has made real efforts to get significantly more diverse. I don't see them having the exact tastes. Five years ago, I think Three Billboards is probably the favorite. But now, I don't know about that. The Academy looks different than ever. It's also gonna be last on alot of people's ballots, and I don't see Get Out or Lady Bird falling below third or fourth with pretty much anyone. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, filmlover said: Birdman actually did have a lot of detractors at the time. That said, it was much more of a unique directorial achievement (something that Three Billboards is definitely not). But it also had a consensus sweep through the guilds. Every movie will have detractors, but you can't have that many if you swept up all the awards. La La Land won a lot, but it did not sweep as much as Birdman, as it didn't even get a SAG nom. 2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said: The other thing that I think people are forgetting is that the Academy composition has changed in ways BAFTA and the Golden Globes have not. It's a much larger body that has made real efforts to get significantly more diverse. I don't see them having the exact tastes. Five years ago, I think Three Billboards is probably the favorite. But now, I don't know about that. The Academy looks different than ever. It's also gonna be last on alot of people's ballots, and I don't see Get Out or Lady Bird falling below third or fourth with pretty much anyone. Also something to note. This may also decrease the relevance of the guilds, maybe it increases the relevance of the critics circles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 (edited) 4 minutes ago, New Year New Panda said: La La Land won a lot, but it did not sweep as much as Birdman, as it didn't even get a SAG nom. Because it's hard to get a SAG Ensemble nom when you're an ensemble essentially consisting of just two people. It's why Call Me by Your Name missing there wasn't that big of a deal either. Edited January 9, 2018 by filmlover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 22 minutes ago, Valonqar said: So who gets snubbed on the Oscar morning, Gerwig or Peele? You know someone will be. Peele if we're picking because of all the cracks people have been making at all male line ups. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 I'm kinda done trying to predict the exact nominees beyond Best Picture (which is between the top 8). We're likely bound to get some big surprises and snubs the morning of nominations in two weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: Peele if we're picking because of all the cracks people have been making at all male line ups. And his movie is a genre movie. Social satire or not, it's labelled horror. That's more of an uphill battle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 (edited) 16 minutes ago, filmlover said: Because it's hard to get a SAG Ensemble nom when you're an ensemble essentially consisting of just two people. It's why Call Me by Your Name missing there wasn't that big of a deal either. CMBYN isn't winning BP though either. You definitely need Actor support to win BP (as noted, there are very few movies that miss a SAG nom and win BP, in fact only Braveheart won BP without a SAG nom and you could argue there was still a strong enough ensemble in that movie to warrant a BP win. Plus that was the first year the SAG awarded a best ensemble award), and in general I think an actor may be more likely to vote for an ensemble piece than one that is not. I think La La Land would have at least needed a nomination there to get the BP win. It's not a major issue because the three movies in contention (Get Out, Lady Bird and Three Billboards) are all SAG nominees. If Three Billboards wins SAG, PGA and WGA (and BAFTAs) I think it's a clear winner. If it loses PGA or loses both SAG and WGA (or all three), I think there's a strong possibility it loses (especially if it's Get Out or Lady Bird that end up taking PGA, SAG or WGA). Also, if DGA snubs Lady Bird or Get Out, and they also don't get a directing nod, I think that puts them out of contention. Edited January 9, 2018 by New Year New Panda 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 i think 9 best picture nominees this year. the uncertainty makes way for more stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BardCrank Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 25 minutes ago, New Year New Panda said: I'll see how my precursor data lines up but this is my biggest grievance against predicting Three Billboards. Pre-Preferential Ballot, as long as your movie has the largest passionate base you won (which means there was more room for anyone who wasn't apart of that base to dislike the movie), maybe it's one of the reasons we kept getting 'weak' winners like Shakespeare in Love and such. Post-Preferential Ballot, movies need a large enough base to not get eliminated from the first few rounds of voting, and they need to be well-liked by the people that didn't place it at number 1 (as in, they'll place it numbers 2-3). In 2016: La La Land had a lot of detractors, despite a lot of people loving it In 2015: The Revenant had a lot of detractors, despite a lot of people loving it In 2014: Birdman didn't have many detractors and it had a passionate base, so it won In 2013: Gravity had a lot of detractors, despite a lot of people loving it In 2012: Argo was an easy consensus choice (plus Affleck controversy) In 2011: Weak year, The Artist had the most consensus and a passionate base In 2010: First year of the Preferential Ballot, but The King's Speech seemed to have a lot of universal guild passion Three Billboards has a lot of detractors and Get Out/Lady Bird do not. However, Get Out and Lady Bird both missed the BAFTAs which is pretty major. If they miss the DGA then I don't think they have enough support to still be in contention. I said this just a while back , it's not that 3B is smashing through everything that tells you it's gonna win it's that it is almost THE ONLY CONSISTENT nominee ( and it has won a lot too ) in the most important categories ( Picture , director , screen play and the highest number of acting noms ) where as LB and GO missed some very important precursors that shows you those movies are Mortal so the thing is not about the strength of 3B but the vulnerability of the opposition last year MBTS and ML were in a waaaaay better spot ( presence wise ) than LB and GO and the same can be said about almost any other year this analogy you guys are bringing up every few seconds is not apples to apples I think but then again I could be wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 (edited) I just noticed that Dench somehow didn't happen here (and instead they went for Annette Bening in a film that no one cares about and even less people will see). I guess Victoria & Abdul was a total "don't care" for them (that Hair/Makeup nom aside). Edited January 9, 2018 by filmlover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 If we're just breaking it down by guild support then Shape of Water would be a shoo in, considering it's a directorial achievement, probably the tech movie of the year (or at least top two), and loaded with praised performances (and successful/unique enough to appeal to producers). I think the better way to think of it is what gets the best combination of #1 support without being left off by many people either. I still think there's a shot Get Out takes it. I'll still go Lady Bird gun to my head. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyK Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said: If we're just breaking it down by guild support then Shape of Water would be a shoo in, considering it's a directorial achievement, probably the tech movie of the year (or at least top two), and loaded with praised performances (and successful/unique enough to appeal to producers). I think the better way to think of it is what gets the best combination of #1 support without being left off by many people either. I still think there's a shot Get Out takes it. I'll still go Lady Bird gun to my head. Yes, the one thing you can say about SoW is that it is a pretty unique movie. The inclusion of CMBYN baffles me, I haven't seen it, but the trailers don't show anything noteworthy, romances are two a penny. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 23 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said: If we're just breaking it down by guild support then Shape of Water would be a shoo in, considering it's a directorial achievement, probably the tech movie of the year (or at least top two), and loaded with praised performances (and successful/unique enough to appeal to producers). I think the better way to think of it is what gets the best combination of #1 support without being left off by many people either. I still think there's a shot Get Out takes it. I'll still go Lady Bird gun to my head. SoW missed the SAG nom, and it's an acting heavy film that was definitely screened prior to the deadline, that alone takes it out of contention for a BP win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Reynolds Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 BEST FILM 1917 Pippa Harris, Callum McDougall, Sam Mendes, Jayne-Ann Tenggren THE IRISHMAN Robert De Niro, Jane Rosenthal, Martin Scorsese, Emma Tillinger Koskoff JOKER Bradley Cooper, Todd Phillips, Emma Tillinger Koskoff ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh, Quentin Tarantino PARASITE Bong Joon-ho, Kwak Sin-ae OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM 1917 Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Callum McDougall, Jayne-Ann Tenggren, Krysty Wilson-Cairns BAIT Mark Jenkin, Kate Byers, Linn Waite FOR SAMA Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts ROCKETMAN Dexter Fletcher, Adam Bohling, David Furnish, David Reid, Matthew Vaughn, Lee Hall SORRY WE MISSED YOU Ken Loach, Rebecca O’Brien, Paul Laverty THE TWO POPES Fernando Meirelles, Jonathan Eirich, Dan Lin, Tracey Seaward, Anthony McCarten OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER BAIT Mark Jenkin (Writer/Director), Kate Byers, Linn Waite (Producers) FOR SAMA Waad al-Kateab (Director/Producer), Edward Watts (Director) MAIDEN Alex Holmes (Director) ONLY YOU Harry Wootliff (Writer/Director) RETABLO Álvaro Delgado-Aparicio (Writer/Director)1 FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE THE FAREWELL Lulu Wang, Daniele Melia FOR SAMA Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts PAIN AND GLORY Pedro Almodóvar, Agustín Almodóvar PARASITE Bong Joon-ho PORTRAIT OF A LADY ON FIRE Céline Sciamma, Bénédicte Couvreur DOCUMENTARY AMERICAN FACTORY Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert APOLLO 11 Todd Douglas Miller DIEGO MARADONA Asif Kapadia FOR SAMA Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts THE GREAT HACK Karim Amer, Jehane Noujaim ANIMATED FILM FROZEN 2 Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee, Peter Del Vecho KLAUS Sergio Pablos, Jinko Gotoh A SHAUN THE SHEEP MOVIE: FARMAGEDDON Will Becher, Richard Phelan, Paul Kewley TOY STORY 4 Josh Cooley, Mark Nielsen DIRECTOR 1917 Sam Mendes THE IRISHMAN Martin Scorsese JOKER Todd Phillips ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD Quentin Tarantino PARASITE Bong Joon-ho ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY BOOKSMART Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Sarah Haskins, Katie Silberman KNIVES OUT Rian Johnson MARRIAGE STORY Noah Baumbach ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD Quentin Tarantino PARASITE Han Jin Won, Bong Joon-ho ADAPTED SCREENPLAY THE IRISHMAN Steven Zaillian JOJO RABBIT Taika Waititi JOKER Todd Phillips, Scott Silver LITTLE WOMEN Greta Gerwig THE TWO POPES Anthony McCarten LEADING ACTRESS JESSIE BUCKLEY Wild Rose SCARLETT JOHANSSON Marriage Story SAOIRSE RONAN Little Women CHARLIZE THERON Bombshell RENÉE ZELLWEGER Judy LEADING ACTOR LEONARDO DICAPRIO Once Upon a Time… In Hollywood ADAM DRIVER Marriage Story TARON EGERTON Rocketman JOAQUIN PHOENIX Joker JONATHAN PRYCE The Two Popes SUPPORTING ACTRESS LAURA DERN Marriage Story SCARLETT JOHANSSON Jojo Rabbit FLORENCE PUGH Little Women MARGOT ROBBIE Bombshell MARGOT ROBBIE Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood SUPPORTING ACTOR TOM HANKS A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood ANTHONY HOPKINS The Two Popes AL PACINO The Irishman JOE PESCI The Irishman BRAD PITT Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood ORIGINAL SCORE 1917 Thomas Newman JOJO RABBIT Michael Giacchino JOKER Hildur Guđnadóttir LITTLE WOMEN Alexandre Desplat STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER John Williams CASTING JOKER Shayna Markowitz MARRIAGE STORY Douglas Aibel, Francine Maisler ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD Victoria Thomas THE PERSONAL HISTORY OF DAVID COPPERFIELD Sarah Crowe THE TWO POPES Nina Gold CINEMATOGRAPHY 1917 Roger Deakins THE IRISHMAN Rodrigo Prieto JOKER Lawrence Sher LE MANS ’66 Phedon Papamichael THE LIGHTHOUSE Jarin Blaschke EDITING THE IRISHMAN Thelma Schoonmaker JOJO RABBIT Tom Eagles JOKER Jeff Groth LE MANS ’66 Andrew Buckland, Michael McCusker ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD Fred Raskin PRODUCTION DESIGN 1917 Dennis Gassner, Lee Sandales THE IRISHMAN Bob Shaw, Regina Graves JOJO RABBIT Ra Vincent, Nora Sopková JOKER Mark Friedberg, Kris Moran ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD Barbara Ling, Nancy Haigh COSTUME DESIGN THE IRISHMAN Christopher Peterson, Sandy Powell JOJO RABBIT Mayes C. Rubeo JUDY Jany Temime LITTLE WOMEN Jacqueline Durran ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD Arianne Phillips MAKE UP & HAIR 1917 Naomi Donne BOMBSHELL Vivian Baker, Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan JOKER Kay Georgiou, Nicki Ledermann JUDY Jeremy Woodhead ROCKETMAN Lizzie Yianni Georgiou SOUND 1917 Scott Millan, Oliver Tarney, Rachael Tate, Mark Taylor, Stuart Wilson JOKER Tod Maitland, Alan Robert Murray, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic LE MANS ’66 David Giammarco, Paul Massey, Steven A. Morrow, Donald Sylvester ROCKETMAN Matthew Collinge, John Hayes, Mike Prestwood Smith, Danny Sheehan STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER David Acord, Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio, Stuart Wilson, Matthew Wood SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS 1917 Greg Butler, Guillaume Rocheron, Dominic Tuohy AVENGERS: ENDGAME Dan Deleeuw, Dan Sudick THE IRISHMAN Leandro Estebecorena, Stephane Grabli, Pablo Helman THE LION KING Andrew R. Jones, Robert Legato, Elliot Newman, Adam Valdez STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER Roger Guyett, Paul Kavanagh, Neal Scanlan, Dominic Tuohy BRITISH SHORT ANIMATION GRANDAD WAS A ROMANTIC. Maryam Mohajer IN HER BOOTS Kathrin Steinbacher THE MAGIC BOAT Naaman Azhari, Lilia Laurel BRITISH SHORT FILM AZAAR Myriam Raja, Nathanael Baring GOLDFISH Hector Dockrill, Harri Kamalanathan, Benedict Turnbull, Laura Dockrill KAMALI Sasha Rainbow, Rosalind Croad LEARNING TO SKATEBOARD IN A WARZONE (IF YOU’RE A GIRL) Carol Dysinger, Elena Andreicheva THE TRAP Lena Headey, Anthony Fitzgerald EE RISING STAR AWARD AWKWAFINA KAITLYN DEVER KELVIN HARRISON JR. JACK LOWDEN MICHEAL WARD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealLyre Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 god BAFTAs are such a mess this year Parasite missed on editing so it's not winning this (also missed on everything below the line, doesn't seem like it's getting Roma like support). 1917 misses on screenplay, Marriage Story only gets 4 noms, no POC in any of the acting categories (not even Jlo??? or any of the cast of parasite..) Irishman gets in everywhere but De Niro gets snubbed (do they like everything in the movie except the lead?? this happened with the globes and SAG too ). the good surprises were Klaus in animation and the lighthouse in cinematography. I liked seeing Portrait and For Sama in the international category as well but this seems like a mostly a meh BAFTA season. the industry love for Joker is insane Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dxmatrixdt Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 (edited) . Edited June 26, 2020 by abusive brainwashed Christ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
