Valonqar Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 (edited) It isn't about crossover as much as it's about perception of who is in it to win it. People like to vote for perceived winners. So LB and GO getting shut out moves them from "In it to win it" to "also run" and that's not the best place to be in. They are going to lock BP noms, but it isn't super safe for both directors because there's no consensus that they should make the line-up. Rihgt now, DGA is their hope since both missed GG and BAFTA director nods. Edited January 9, 2018 by Valonqar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 Imagine if the I, Tonya surge led to Sebastian Stan being this year's "surprise, bitch" nominee, taking out Harrelson and continuing the double Supporting Actor snub trend. What would BOT do? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 The last three BP winners to be snubbed at BAFTA were Million Dollar Baby (which was ineligible), Braveheart, and Dances with Wolves. I don't know how you look at those stats and think Lady Bird or Get Out are significantly ahead of 3B. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 18 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: The last three BP winners to be snubbed at BAFTA were Million Dollar Baby (which was ineligible), Braveheart, and Dances with Wolves. I don't know how you look at those stats and think Lady Bird or Get Out are significantly ahead of 3B. Didn't even know MDB was ineligible, that definitely is a major blow to Get Out and LB. If 3B starts winning some of the guilds awards, then it's a done deal. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fancyarcher Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 (edited) Lady Bird and Get Out both took hits. I'd say Three Billboards is probably winning best picture, but will see. Edited January 9, 2018 by Fancyarcher Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 10 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said: Lady Bird and Get Out both took hits. I'd say Three Billboards is probably winning best picture, but will see. The Post (if it was seen & eligible) took a really big one also 0 mention, has good is the subject and interesting City of Ghost is by moment, it was terrible film making.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 The only actors to hit all the precursors in Lead category are Oldman, Kaluuya, and Timmy T. DDL is most certainly safe as well. It's the last spot that gives me a headache: I'd like to say Franco (especially after that Golden Globe win) but...I dunno. Maybe Hanks just gets in in the end on account that his film is a Best Picture nominee? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FantasticBeasts Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 I remember quite clearly people telling La La Land was the biggest lock in a decade. I suppose it would be better not to rush. I still think Lady Bird is getting this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, FantasticBeasts said: I remember quite clearly people telling La La Land was the biggest lock in a decade. I suppose it would be better not to rush. I still think Lady Bird is getting this. To be fair, the race wasn't anywhere nearly as cluttered and open last year as it is this year. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Good thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 I think this'll be at least a little beneficial to Darkest Hour. It's Best Picture change probably increased slightly, and it may have secured an extra tech him outside of the gimme Makeup nom. We'll see. I, Tonya is peaking at the right time, so I agree that it could very well be a Best Picture nominee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 I mean, I'm not gonna declare "Three Billboards is a lock for Best Picture" (especially with the way things have been unfolding this year), but the statistics are pretty hard to argue against. Then again, this could be another 2015 where it's all about throwing out the statistics. This awards season has been reminding me of that one tbh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Salma Hayek used Oprah's Time Is Up to present 3B. That way, 3B became a symbol for Time's Up. Thanks for nothing, Salma. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BardCrank Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 why are we underestimating I,Tonya ? it hit almost everything up until now and screen play and both actress are everywhere it's only lagging behind the top 5 as for the post I think it could end up Silence'd but then again the academy has a huge soft spot for Bergyman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, BardCrank said: why are we underestimating I,Tonya ? it hit almost everything up until now and screen play and both actress are everywhere it's only lagging behind the top 5 as for the post I think it could end up Silence'd but then again the academy has a huge soft spot for Bergyman And it's even hitting in places like Costume Design here (wouldn't surprise me if it ends up nominated - it does an A+ job of recreating her skating outfits). I think it's safe as the consensus 7 for a nomination at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 I Tonya is not udnerestimated. It will likely get Picture nom, it's certainly getting screen play and 2 Actress noms with Janney as a possible winner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FantasticBeasts Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 48 minutes ago, filmlover said: To be fair, the race wasn't anywhere nearly as cluttered and open last year as it is this year. I am not saying that considering La La Land the big favourite was unjustified. It was 100% rational and that makes the surprise even more meaningful so I don't realise why we would have to jump the gun so early. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BardCrank Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 52 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said: I remember quite clearly people telling La La Land was the biggest lock in a decade. I suppose it would be better not to rush. I still think Lady Bird is getting this. yes but you see , it's rivals ( Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight ) did not miss anything , literally anything it was winning over them but they were nominated everywhere LLL was ( not just picture but also director and screen play ) so yours is not an apples to apples tbf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 So who gets snubbed on the Oscar morning, Gerwig or Peele? You know someone will be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Valonqar said: So who gets snubbed on the Oscar morning, Gerwig or Peele? You know someone will be. DGA noms this Thursday will be fascinating. Maybe Guadagnino is this year's "surprise" nominee after making it in here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
