Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[Harpospoke]

52 minutes ago, babz06 said:

african american starring films are not given full international releases so those grosses are misleading. Usually they only get released in UK/Australia and sometimes africa but rarely anywhere else. Also American skewing comedies/dramas rarely do well overseas so i dont think you should single out only black-led films. This has becomes a narrative that hollywood continues to push even though they know that films with black stars do not get the same publicity or marketing as other films. Thus it becomes a self-fulling prophecy. 

There is a reason why a movie is released or not released somewhere.   The reason is whether or not the market is interested in that movie.

[MovieMan89]

The first Paddington had a 4x multi and this one is opening to not much more than half of that one with even better critical reception. Therefore I do think it might be able to pull off a 5-6x multi. Still only puts it in the ballpark of 60m, which is disappointing but not a disaster considering the first only did 76. 

[Barnack]

3 minutes ago, Harpospoke said:

There is a reason why a movie is released or not released somewhere.   The reason is whether or not the market is interested in that movie.

How it is evaluated if a market is interested in that movie by people who jobs it is, is greatly influenced by comparable and precedent performance.

 

That where the self fulfilling prophecy theory come from, the previous black movie story or mostly black cast did not got a big push internationally and did not do well, when looking at the next one potential they are influenced by the previous one, see a low performance, evaluate low potential for the new release, do not give it a big push, in a circular way like this.

 

How much it is true, how much it is false it is hard to say. Creed for example had by far the worst intl ratio of the Rocky series since box office mojo track them despite being the latest release with oversea that got much bigger and I think got release in pretty much all the same market than the previous entry, so it could have more to it than just distributor fear to explain that and they could be partially right, but a big part of the phenomenon is probably due to marketing budget.

[grey ghost]

3 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

It's not over 85M, but The Desolation Of Smaug opened close to that with 73.6M; while The Return Of The King (unadjusted for inflation) did 124.1M for the 5-day opening, 72.6M for the 3-day. Smaug had a 3.51x multiplier, while ROTK got a 3.04x multiplier for its 5-day opening, which equates to - stripping away the ~51.5M it did on its opening Wednesday + Thursday from DOM total - a 4.49x multiplier from its 3-day opening (leading to a 325.5M DOM income, again without the 51.5M it did on its first two days).

 

And again, The Force Awakens was a sequel too and it had the biggest opening of all time, yet still managed a 3.78x multiplier. And even movies as completely DOA as Downsizing and Father Figures have gotten 3x multipliers from their 4-day openings.

 

Their complaints about The Last Jedi's underwhelming multiplier aren't necessarily dumbfounded.

First off you can't just assume 3-day would've been anywhere close to the 5-day.

 

Second no direct sequel has come close to 220 m OW in December. There are no comps.

 

So saying TLJ had terrible legs for a 200+ m OW sequel in December is completely baseless.

 

 

Edited January 13, 2018 by grey ghost

[DAJK]

I guess Canada ain't invincible to Paddington-disappointment

 

While last night here increased on the first movie, early matinee shows so far are 1/4 of Paddington 1. At my theatre anyway

Edited January 13, 2018 by DAJK

[ACSlater]

For those who have seen it, is the Commuter any good? 

 

I could use some Neeson in unpredictable situations.

[grey ghost]

1 hour ago, Mulder said:

I'd buy into that if the OW reflected that but it didn't. It was only 17 million less then TFA. It's bad legs reflect audience reception more then anything else.

Um, the SW trilogy opener (ANH, TPM, TFA) always has way better legs than the rest of the trilogy.

 

It doesn't matter if TLJ's OW was huge. TFA legs, or anything close, were never a possibility.

 

 

 

 

[MCKillswitch123]

28 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

First off you can't just assume 3-day would've been anywhere close to the 5-day.

 

Second no direct sequel has come close to 220 m OW in December. There are no comps.

 

So saying TLJ had terrible legs for a 200+ m OW sequel in December is completely baseless.

No I can't, but I'm just going off by the data that I have avaliable. And imo, regardless of the obvious separation between the two kinds of openers, it's more impressive for a 5-day opener to have a better multiplier for its 5-day OW than a 3-day opener. There's a difference between doubling/tripling what you do in 3 days, and doubling/tripling what you do in 5 days. Juuuuuust sayin'.

 

If TLJ had legit good wom, it would have flown past a 3x multiplier, because if freaking Downsizing and Father Figures can triple their FOUR-day opening, then a Star Wars movie, 200M+ OW sequel or not, would have tripled a THREE-day opening in the same frame as well. And before you say that is a ridiculous comparison, it really isn't, because when it comes to the holidays, even giant openers can have swift legs.

 

TLJ will absolutely not have a 3x multiplier, though. It will have something like a 2.8x multiplier. And for a holiday release with a 3-day opening, that doesn't cut it. Is it a terrible set of legs? If you completely ignore the fact that it came out on the holidays, no, it's not. Is it worth giving the benefit of the doubt until Ep. IX comes out? Maybe. But again, the movie hasn't had necessarily good holds and it will finish under The Avengers unadjusted, despite having a bigger opening and the proven playroom of the holidays. Does that sound like good legs to you?

Edited January 13, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[EmmaPeel]

3 hours ago, Jandrew said:

Shouldnt be surprised that America is dumb enough to give Paddington only $2.4, look at out current state.

 

At the same time it is disappointing that we still have a hard time breaking out and embracing things that arent American. Hell Despacito didnt break out until they slapped  Americanly-marketable Bieber on it after all.

I don't think it's about not embracing things that aren't American, it has more to do with the fact that many Americans just don't get British humor. Paddington is pretty aggressive with it's British style humor, which I love, but it doesn't translate well for many Americans, especially young ones.

 

3 hours ago, a2knet said:

I think JJ returning matters to a degree. If the movie is as pleasing to the GA as TFA I think it can grow from SW8. A Sith like jump (20-22%) can be ruled out but would not rule out closer to 10%. If SW8 does 620 then a 10% bump gives 680+. On the lower side again using 10% gives 560.

JJ returning matters in a big way IMO. Virtually everyone I know who hated TLJ is willing to give IX a chance because the 'guy who made TFA's coming back'. Disney brought Abrams back for a reason: because the GA and many SW fans still like TFA, even though it has it's problems, and will give IX a shot to redeem the franchise after the deep disappointment many felt in TLJ. If he succeeds in making a satisfying SW movie, it could easily jump 20% from TLJ.

 

1 hour ago, Mulder said:

I'd buy into that if the OW reflected that but it didn't. It was only 17 million less then TFA. It's bad legs reflect audience reception more then anything else.

Exactly. TLJ was perfectly positioned to fall 20% from TFA, at most, if it had been well received by the audience. The notion that it was always destined to fall more than 30% is absurd, especially given how massively it opened to such eager audiences. You can't compare the ANH/ESB situation at all because the way cinema, marketing, and box office worked in the late 70s and early 80s is totally incomparable to today. AOTC dropped so much from TPM because TPM was regarded as deeply disappointing by the time AOTC came out and AOTC sucked and everyone said so from the start. Disappointment and suckage are why AOTC fell so hard, not because it was destined to fall as the second of three. TFA was very well received by most and still is well liked overall. TLJ's massive opening weekend is a testament to how eager people were for TFA's story to be continued. That TLJ has fallen off so much so fast from such a massive open, and during the winter holiday no less, shows how disappointing it was to many.

[Blankments]

@WrathOfHan Here you go:

 

7x:

 

Pacific Rim: Uprising: Blade Runner 2049, Blade Runner 2049 Round 2, Geostorm, Thor: Ragnarok, Thor: Ragnarok Round 2, Thor: Ragnarok Round 3, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Ready Player One: It, Blade Runner 2049, It Round 2, Justice League, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3, The Post

 

6x:

 

Den of Thieves: Thor: Ragnarok, Thor: Ragnarok Round 2, Justice League, Thor: Ragnarok Round 3, Molly’s Game

Annihilation: Blade Runner 2049, Happy Death Day, Blade Runner 2049 Round 2, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3, The Post

A Wrinkle in Time: Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, Coco, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3, Coco Round 4, The Post

 

5x:

 

Black Panther: The Hitman’s Bodyguard, mother!, Thor: Ragnarok, Thor: Ragnarok Round 2, Thor: Ragnarok Round 3

Paddington 2: The LEGO Ninjago Movie, Wonder, Coco, The Greatest Showman, Coco Round 4

Early Man: Wonder, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 2, Wonder Round 2, Coco Round 4, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Sherlock Gnomes: Wonder, Coco, Coco Round 3, Coco Round 4, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

 

4x:

 

12 Strong: The Declassified True Story of the Horse Soldiers: Blade Runner 2049 Round 2, Thor: Ragnarok, Thor: Ragnarok Round 2, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Alpha: Dunkirk Round 2, Geostorm, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3

Isle of Dogs: The LEGO Ninjago Movie, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Shape of Water, Downsizing

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 2, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 4

Avengers: Infinity War: Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 2, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 4

The Commuter: American Made, Murder on the Orient Express, All the Money in the World, The Greatest Showman

Maze Runner: The Death Cure: Happy Death Day, Geostorm, Thor: Ragnarok Round 3, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Rampage: Justice League, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 2, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 4, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

 

3x:

 

Death Wish: Detroit, Annabelle: Creation, Terminator 2: Judgment Day 3D

Deadpool 2: Logan, Logan Round 2, Justice League

Tomb Raider: Kingsman: The Golden Circle, Geostorm, Murder on the Orient Express

Duck Duck Goose: My Little Pony: The Movie, Wonder, Coco

Fifty Shades Freed: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Shape of Water, All the Money in the World

Blockers: The Disaster Artist, The Disaster Artist Round 2, Downsizing

A Quiet Place: Justice League, The Shape of Water, Downsizing

Alita: Battle Angel: Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 2, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 4

Incredibles 2: Coco, Coco Round 3, Coco Round 4

Peter Rabbit: Coco, Coco Round 4, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Red Sparrow: Kingsman: The Golden Circle, The Snowman, The Post

 

2x:

 

Polaroid: Wind River, Happy Death Day

The New Mutants: Thor: Ragnarok, Thor: Ragnarok Round 2

Game Night: The Disaster Artist, The Disaster Artist Round 2

Winchester: The House That Ghosts Built: The Disaster Artist Round 2, The Shape of Water

Lean on Pete: The Shape of Water, All the Money in the World

The 15:17 to Paris: The Shape of Water, All the Money in the World

Samson: All the Money in the World, The Greatest Showman

The Miracle Season: Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Sicario 2: Soldado: All the Money in the World, The Post

Love, Simon: The Greatest Showman, The Post

 

1x:

 

Forever My Girl: Megan Leavey

Proud Mary: Girls Trip

The Current War: Wind River

Super Troopers 2: Kingsman: The Golden Circle

Mortal Engines: Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Thoroughbreds: The Disaster Artist

Chappaquiddick: Downsizing

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms: The Greatest Showman

Sgt. Stubby: Coco Round 4

Gringo: Molly’s Game

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation: Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!: The Post

[Fancyarcher]

Saw The Post. Great film, well-acted, and very relevant too. 

 

My 1:40 showing sold out though, and it was surprisingly a mix of older people, and some younger ones too. I don't even think my The Last Jedi showing had as many people in it as my Post screening did. They were all into the movie as well. If my theater is any indication (probably isn't, but hey), then I think the film could have some strong legs. 

[REC]

2 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

Saw The Post. Great film, well-acted, and very relevant too. 

 

My 1:40 showing sold out though, and it was surprisingly a mix of older people, and some younger ones too. I don't even think my The Last Jedi showing had as many people in it as my Post screening did. They were all into the movie as well. If my theater is any indication (probably isn't, but hey), then I think the film could have some strong legs. 

I just saw it too actually, it was wonderful.  Incredibly well paced and plotted, Streep was killing it of course, all the actors were.  I wish everyone could see this movie, it's incredibly relevant to what's going on.

 

Me and my friends were the youngest ones there.  Theater was pretty full, and full of our most senior elders   The ending got applause, some people stood up and clapped.

[Fancyarcher]

4 minutes ago, REC said:

I just saw it too actually, it was wonderful.  Incredibly well paced and plotted, Streep was killing it of course, all the actors were.  I wish everyone could see this movie, it's incredibly relevant to what's going on.

 

Me and my friends were the youngest ones there.  Theater was pretty full, and full of our most senior elders   The ending got applause, some people stood up and clapped.

Everyone was applauding at the end, which rarely happens around here. Then again it's also rare that I see a film with a sold-out crowd at my local theater. There were even some short funny moments that got laughs. 

 

I do wish it was doing better, but 21m isn't that bad. I can see it legging it out to 80m. It's a relevant film, and incredibly well made. Also it appeals to a lot of older folks for obvious reasons. 

Edited January 13, 2018 by Fancyarcher

[Jandrew]

2 hours ago, Harpospoke said:

Geez...some of you guys are really into Paddington!     Now "America is dumb" because they aren't into it?   Does that mean the world is "dumb" because they weren't into the Peanuts movie?    China is "dumb" because they aren't into Star Wars and were most interested in a movie with a Chinese cast.  (or does that make them "racist"?)

 

Sounds like an excuse to wedge politics into it.   You're just dying to talk about this perceived "current state", aren't you?   (don't panic, the "current state" will be  fine just like it was fine for the the past decade when you liked the POTUS)

Hey, why dont you unwedge your panties, calm down, and take a seat. I never said anything about politics. If I wanted to call Trump out specifically, since youre making broad assumptions, then I wouldve. I'm an American, so I can call us Americans whatever I want to for whatever reason I please.

[DAJK]

58 minutes ago, ACSlater said:

For those who have seen it, is the Commuter any good? 

 

I could use some Neeson in unpredictable situations.

Enjoyable, not amazing though. Pretty much on par with Neeson's other non-taken sequels work 

[ACSlater]

9 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Enjoyable, not amazing though. Pretty much on par with Neeson's other non-taken sequels work 

 

Thanks. I will take the wife and go see it tomorrow morning or Monday.

[Jandrew]

44 minutes ago, EmmaPeel said:

I don't think it's about not embracing things that aren't American, it has more to do with the fact that many Americans just don't get British humor. Paddington is pretty aggressive with it's British style humor, which I love, but it doesn't translate well for many Americans, especially young ones.

I agree there's a humor barrier, but there's still a cultural barrier as well, and Americans aren't always the best at crossing it. But it's moot, the box office is the box office. I'm sure it'll have an appreciated second-run on Netflix or something.

[robertman2]

Those Paddington numbers

[CoolioD1]

using paddington as an excuse to do some of that "you damn libs!!" bitching is one of the most strenuous links i've ever seen.

[aabattery]

Paddington 2 has already made a ton OS so I'd wager it's already in the black.

 

Still sad that America has failed it completely, but I don't think anyone is gonna be losing any money from it.